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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #4976
    Visa Bulletin out! Depressing...no change in FAD for EB3I

  2. #4977
    Quote Originally Posted by NJMavarick View Post
    Visa Bulletin out! Depressing...no change in FAD for EB3I
    We simply do not know whether CO has already applied possible spillovers or will wait till the last quarter. The optimist will say that only 2800 EB3-I green cards are needed to get EB3I to go to current FAD. And the spillover will be applied in the final quarter.

  3. #4978
    Quote Originally Posted by NJMavarick View Post
    Visa Bulletin out! Depressing...no change in FAD for EB3I
    June 2019 VB is out.
    EB1I-FA 01JAN2015 (-783 days movement)
    EB2I-FA 19APR2009 (+3 days movement)
    EB3I-FA 01JUL2009 (0 days movement)

  4. #4979
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    We simply do not know whether CO has already applied possible spillovers or will wait till the last quarter. The optimist will say that only 2800 EB3-I green cards are needed to get EB3I to go to current FAD. And the spillover will be applied in the final quarter.
    I do think that spillovers are not applied! However, we are at the mercy of CO and I personally feel there is no method to his madness and there is no data to back-up the 0 days movement. He is and will always be conservative when it comes to moving the dates.

  5. #4980
    The EB5-I getting a FAD probably tells that there may be a few smart ones in EB2/EB3 seeing the writing on the wall and moving over to EB5.

  6. #4981
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    The EB5-I getting a FAD probably tells that there may be a few smart ones in EB2/EB3 seeing the writing on the wall and moving over to EB5.
    Given the seminars that are being conducted in India for EB5 by various law firms, I am not surprised. There are quite a few folks in India who can easily afford to pay 500K$ to get into EB5.

  7. #4982
    Freshman
    Join Date
    May 2018
    Location
    Here
    Posts
    3
    Hey June bulletin is out. Looks like Eb2-I moved 3 days but technically only 1 day as April 17 & 18 is Sat and Sun

  8. #4983
    Hello Folks,

    Long time follower, first time poster. I have a priority date of November 2010 with Company A. I moved to Company B in 2016 but haven't bothered restarting my GC process due to the company policy of no promotions (grade freeze) from the time of perm application to GC application. Now the company is pressuring me to start the perm process but I still haven't received the promotion I have been after all this while The decision I am trying to make is whether to stick to the current company and hope I will get a GC soon enough (in next 3 years or so), or start exploring options at a different company.

    The other issue I see is it will be at least 12 to 18 months before the new company will start my perm. Add another 18 months to get Perm + I-140. Is there even a remote chance I will get current just to get EAD by then?My spouse has been on H4 for about 11 years, finally been able to work since last couple of years via H4-EAD which might be taken away anytime. The dilemma we are in is do I continue at my dead end job so that we do not miss the EAD boat?

    Any helps or suggestions are appreciate. Thank you!

  9. #4984
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    We simply do not know whether CO has already applied possible spillovers or will wait till the last quarter. The optimist will say that only 2800 EB3-I green cards are needed to get EB3I to go to current FAD. And the spillover will be applied in the final quarter.
    I don't think SO has been applied yet. We might still get to June 1st 2009 for EB2, and October 1st 2009 for EB3. 3 month movement for EB3-P is very interesting. They have the potential to be current over the next 6 months.

  10. #4985
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    I don't think SO has been applied yet. We might still get to June 1st 2009 for EB2, and October 1st 2009 for EB3. 3 month movement for EB3-P is very interesting. They have the potential to be current over the next 6 months.
    Good point Aceman. Hope Philippines get Current soon and stop consuming Rest of the World Spill Over. More likely Next FY they will consume very very less SO. Just hoping.

  11. #4986
    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    Hello Gurus, my EB2 priority date is Oct 29, 2009. While my priority date is still a bit away, i would like to be prepared for i485 application. Can folks here suggest good lawyers/reliable lawyers for i485 application, i am in chicago.

    I am August 2009 and I am now not even sure for the entire FY 2020 looking the way the visa bulletin is progressing.Hate to say this but you might be lucky in FY 2021

  12. #4987
    Hello Spec and Q ,


    It is time of the year where you have to provide us some guidance. You are the only Guru's we know of.

    Based on the data you have collected so far. How many EB2india visas are left to be assigned for 2019 Fiscal.

    This is not too much to ask for?

  13. #4988
    Compared to Jan 2019 bulletin with June one, EB2 FAD moved only 18 days, EB3 FAD moves 122 days where as EB2 - FD moved 10 days and EB3 - FD moved 0 days. don't know what to expect in the coming bulletins.

  14. #4989

    Any Spillover this year?

    EB1 retrogresses, EB5 will in July. So does this mean there will not be any spillover for this year to EB2I?

    Not sure about what the typical avenues for spillover are...if someone can throw some light it would be good.

  15. #4990
    My Priority date is April 17 2009 EB2I. I am finally current again in the June 2019 bulletin. I have a couple of questions and looking for help/advise here.

    1. Come June 1, what can and should I do. I have read about SR, congressman, senator, Ombudsman in some forum posts. Not sure if there are any other avenues. How long should I wait before trying any of these - 10 days, 20 days. Also, is there any other channel besides the above.
    2. My current EAD/AP expires on October 8 and apparently now, you can apply for renewal 6 months before. Should I apply for renewal or wait atleast until June. Will they reject the EAD/AP renewal if my GC is approved. Is it worth to get the renewal application after June 1 so someone in USCIS will “see” my case and approve GC and reject EAD/AP.

    Please advise.

  16. #4991
    Quote Originally Posted by saagar_is_cool View Post
    My Priority date is April 17 2009 EB2I. I am finally current again in the June 2019 bulletin. I have a couple of questions and looking for help/advise here.

    1. Come June 1, what can and should I do. I have read about SR, congressman, senator, Ombudsman in some forum posts. Not sure if there are any other avenues. How long should I wait before trying any of these - 10 days, 20 days. Also, is there any other channel besides the above.
    2. My current EAD/AP expires on October 8 and apparently now, you can apply for renewal 6 months before. Should I apply for renewal or wait atleast until June. Will they reject the EAD/AP renewal if my GC is approved. Is it worth to get the renewal application after June 1 so someone in USCIS will “see” my case and approve GC and reject EAD/AP.

    Please advise.
    Reg 1. No practical knowledge on this. If your congressman is willing to do it, then there is no need to wait. Some congressman will not do any followup's unless an "y" number of days had passed (say 30 or 60).
    Reg 2. Apply for renewal ASAP. Don't "hope" or "wait" for GC approval. I am assuming that you are doing the renewal yourself and you don't need to pay an fees. The new I-765 form is more detailed than the old one. So it might take a little bit more time. Better to be safe than sorry.

  17. #4992
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Apr 2017
    Location
    DFW
    Posts
    28
    I agree with idliman. Apply for EAD renewal anyways.

  18. #4993
    Quote Originally Posted by vyruss View Post
    EB1 retrogresses, EB5 will in July. So does this mean there will not be any spillover for this year to EB2I?

    Not sure about what the typical avenues for spillover are...if someone can throw some light it would be good.
    There very well could be from EB2 Row specially considering that EB2-ROW is current and CO didnt say anything about retrogressing it. Same applies for EB3 too.

  19. #4994
    Quote Originally Posted by delguy View Post
    There very well could be from EB2 Row specially considering that EB2-ROW is current and CO didnt say anything about retrogressing it. Same applies for EB3 too.
    There is also a possibility of spillovers from Family quota. If Trump admin is lengthening the process on EB side, they could very well be doing the same in FB side. RedSox posted a few weeks back that for the first half of the year, FB was 12000 numbers behind.

  20. #4995
    Freshman
    Join Date
    Jun 2014
    Location
    New York
    Posts
    0
    Quote Originally Posted by mcmilers View Post
    I agree with idliman. Apply for EAD renewal anyways.
    Quick Q, does the EAD renewal triggers RFE for Sup J again though we have an already approved Sup J last year? I am sitting with April 28,2009 PD and my current EAD expires on October 12, 2019. Thanks

  21. #4996
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
    Location
    Austin, TX
    Posts
    49
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    There is also a possibility of spillovers from Family quota. If Trump admin is lengthening the process on EB side, they could very well be doing the same in FB side. RedSox posted a few weeks back that for the first half of the year, FB was 12000 numbers behind.
    I do not think spillovers can be applied from FB to EB in the same FY. Any unused FB this FY will spill over to EB next FY.

  22. #4997
    Quote Originally Posted by bikenlalan View Post
    I do not think spillovers can be applied from FB to EB in the same FY. Any unused FB this FY will spill over to EB next FY.
    Right. If I remember correctly, they start applying it in the first quarter of the next FY itself.

  23. #4998
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Reg 1. No practical knowledge on this. If your congressman is willing to do it, then there is no need to wait. Some congressman will not do any followup's unless an "y" number of days had passed (say 30 or 60).
    Reg 2. Apply for renewal ASAP. Don't "hope" or "wait" for GC approval. I am assuming that you are doing the renewal yourself and you don't need to pay an fees. The new I-765 form is more detailed than the old one. So it might take a little bit more time. Better to be safe than sorry.
    Thank you. I will check who our local congressman is, and what their policy is. For 2. the EAD/AP card expires on October 8, so I was thinking of waiting through June and apply anyways before 120 days. Now that EAD renewal is automatic for 6 months post expiry if you apply before expiration date, I was thinking of doing wait and watch. But I will take your advice and renew it to have 1 less thing to worry about.

  24. #4999
    Experts - need your advice.

    My priority date is June 2009. I have an approved EB3 140 from 2011 and ported that date to EB2 140 approved in 2013 with the same company. I filed 485 in 2015 based on EB2 filing dates. I am no longer with that company.

    Now my date is current under EB3 but not under EB2. Can I request USCIS to use my EB3 140 for my 485. If yes what is the procedure and is there any risk in doing so?

  25. #5000
    Quote Originally Posted by bikenlalan View Post
    I do not think spillovers can be applied from FB to EB in the same FY. Any unused FB this FY will spill over to EB next FY.
    Agree and they get divided equally into all EB categories. So unless there is a significant spillover from FB, it wont change the EB2 needle much. The good news is that EB2/3 ROW is still current and therefofe can yield horizontal spillover that will all go to India. EB2 May and June 2009 are very dense and need some push for PD to move over them. I hope we get the numbers to eat these 2 months and more 🤣

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