EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[NJMavarick]

All,

I am having a priority date of May 2011 in EB3I and was trying to figure out the possibility of me able to file my I-485 to get the EAD (At the moment even EAD will do it).

Now, between April 2010 and May 2011, I see the total PERM applications (eb2+eb3 combined) as 31063. I am reducing this number by 30% due to duplicate filings, spouse having a separate PERM and so on. This would make me arrive at 21744 PERMs.

It seems for EB2, USCIS considers 1 dependent for every primary and EB3 the ratio is 2.1. I think from 21744, the ratio of EB3 would be 25% vs 75% for EB2.

So,
EB3 = 5436 * 2.1 = 11415
EB2 = 16308 * 2 = 32616

Can I assume I have in total 44032 people waiting ahead of me?

Scenario #1 (One queue)
EB2+EB3 Visas = 5616 Visas per year. It would take ~8 more years to file my I-485 44032 / 5616)?

Scenario #2
EB3: 11415 + 8154 EB2 Downgrades (I will cap this @25% of 32616) = 19569
Considering, we get a combined total of 9000 Visas each year (including spillover), it would take 2.2 Years(approx Q1 OF 2022) for EB3I?

Scenario #3
EB3: 11415 + 13046 EB2 Downgrades (I will cap this @40% of 32616) = 24461
Considering, we get a combined total of 9000 Visas each year(including spillover), it would take 2.7 Years (approx Q2 OF 2022) for EB3I?

The only unknown is the FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 for this FY. I will have to add 8 / 2.2 / 2.7 years from the day the FAD reaches APRIL 2010.

I understand this is all a guesstimate but is my analysis accurate or I am missing something obvious?

Please feel free to correct or provide your feedback. Thanks

[Desi Dude]

WOW! This is scary. My PD is May 22, 2009 and its starting to stress me out. I'm so close and yet so far. Hopefully they accept EAD dates soon, that way at-least I have an EAD/AP for travel. I was planning on switching to EB3 but have decided not to. BTW What's the projection for My PD of EB-I May 22,2009 to be current ?

You should get your GC by Nov. BTW, did you do your Medicals, Sup J etc?

[Spectator]

It seems for EB2, USCIS considers 1 dependent for every primary and EB3 the ratio is 1.1. I think from 21744, the ratio of EB3 would be 25% vs 75% for EB2.

So,
EB3 = 5436*1.1 = 5980
EB2 = 16308 * 2 = 32616

Can I assume I have in total 38596 people waiting ahead of me?

NJMavarick,

You have an error in the initial calculation.

It should be

EB3 = 5436*2.1 = 11,416

which would change the total to 44,032

You might want to edit your post to reflect that.

[NJMavarick]

NJMavarick,

You have an error in the initial calculation.

It should be

EB3 = 5436*2.1 = 11,416

which would change the total to 44,032

You might want to edit your post to reflect that.

Thanks Spec! I have edited my post. Would you agree with my analysis?

[4WatItsWorth]

The demand data of October 2015 shows a reduction of nearly 4000 from January - May 2009 for EB2. So you have to reduce that also from the 24000 calculated. Also remove the 10831 already waiting for AOS from the EB2 pending list will result in a total of around 10000 more waiting in 2009 to adjust in both EB2 and EB3.

However lot of EB2 downgrades will result in double counting of these numbers for a short while and the interest of CO to hold EB3 I at the slightest notion of demand (9 days of forward movement for most retrogressed EB3 is the proof!!!) clearly indicates 2 years will most likely be the norm to clear 2009 if the current scenario continues.

We have been lucky with low EB3 - ROW demand for the last few years. If that starts growing from next year, with the new H1 pre-approval mandate, it can extend the projected 2 year wait time to 3-4 years. More the wait time, more EB2 I will downgrade to EB3 and make the situation literally untenable for anyone beyond May 2010. I know it is a very bleak outlook, but very much plausible.

EB3-I filing date was moved to April2010 for this year. Given the small movement for May, do you think final action date will reach there before October? Or, what is your estimate for EB3-I final action dates for this year?

[rocketfast]

A few years ago, spillover was only applied the last quarter (July-Sept). Then they started applying it a little earlier to avoid wastage. This year, USCIS has accepted filing dates and there should be enough inventory built up. So it may be possible that EB3-I spillover is again only done in the last quarter and it bursts ahead in July. One can only hope as we do not have any inventory numbers.

[GCkaLADDU]

All,

I am having a priority date of May 2011 in EB3I and was trying to figure out the possibility of me able to file my I-485 to get the EAD (At the moment even EAD will do it).

Now, between April 2010 and May 2011, I see the total PERM applications (eb2+eb3 combined) as 31063. I am reducing this number by 30% due to duplicate filings, spouse having a separate PERM and so on. This would make me arrive at 21744 PERMs.

It seems for EB2, USCIS considers 1 dependent for every primary and EB3 the ratio is 2.1. I think from 21744, the ratio of EB3 would be 25% vs 75% for EB2.

So,
EB3 = 5436 * 2.1 = 11415
EB2 = 16308 * 2 = 32616

Can I assume I have in total 44032 people waiting ahead of me?

Scenario #1 (One queue)
EB2+EB3 Visas = 5616 Visas per year. It would take ~8 more years to file my I-485 44032 / 5616)?

Scenario #2
EB3: 11415 + 8154 EB2 Downgrades (I will cap this @25% of 32616) = 19569
Considering, we get a combined total of 9000 Visas each year (including spillover), it would take 2.2 Years(approx Q1 OF 2022) for EB3I?

Scenario #3
EB3: 11415 + 13046 EB2 Downgrades (I will cap this @40% of 32616) = 24461
Considering, we get a combined total of 9000 Visas each year(including spillover), it would take 2.7 Years (approx Q2 OF 2022) for EB3I?

The only unknown is the FAD for both Eb2 and EB3 for this FY. I will have to add 8 / 2.2 / 2.7 years from the day the FAD reaches APRIL 2010.

I understand this is all a guesstimate but is my analysis accurate or I am missing something obvious?

Please feel free to correct or provide your feedback. Thanks

In Scenario 2 and 3, you are factoring only EB3I queue being cleared through a combined GC allocation of 9000 (EB2+EB3). Actual timeframe would depend on how these categories get split in the combined allocation of 9000. Considering 50% split i.e 4500 for each category, you are looking at 4.3 years for scenario 2 and 5.4 years for scenario 3.

[suninphx]

Some excellent analysis by gcseeker1999. Worth a read.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...and-eb3/page/3 (post #47 and #48)

[qesehmk]

Some excellent analysis by gcseeker1999. Worth a read.

https://www.trackitt.com/usa-discuss...and-eb3/page/3 (post #47 and #48)

Certainly a good summary. Thanks for posting. One thing I will add is that - and I am a broken record here - nothing is going to change unless Indians fight for justice. The people who advocate either no immigration (right wing) or status quo (corporations and state dept) are much more powerful than any advocacy group you can possibly create. The only way to make meaningful progress is fight for it in courts and call it out for what it is -DISCRIMINATION. Unless you sway public opinion and/or win a court battle the needle is not moving. Advocacy sounds logical but is limited because of the reason i laid out above.

[NJMavarick]

In Scenario 2 and 3, you are factoring only EB3I queue being cleared through a combined GC allocation of 9000 (EB2+EB3). Actual timeframe would depend on how these categories get split in the combined allocation of 9000. Considering 50% split i.e 4500 for each category, you are looking at 4.3 years for scenario 2 and 5.4 years for scenario 3.

Ouch...

Thanks! Makes sense.

[skpanda]

Friends..
I posted a question a few weeks ago but no responses yet. Therefore I am taking the liberty to post it here since this gets lot of traffic. I will get all the responses moved to approrpiate thread.

Please help provide your thoughts on this situation!

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...ll=1#post61921


----- pasting the question here ------
Dear Friends,
I have a situation and idea. I will reach out to my company attorney but wanted to get thoughts from you guys!

1. My job was in City X in Company A.
2. PERM/GC 1 process for EB2 was done for City X job. PD is Dec 2010 and never filed I485.
3. Company A closed City X office and asked me to start working from City Y. It is 250 miles away. Therefore the PERM/GC 1 for EB2 is no longer valid since the office is closed.
4. Company A started new PERM/GC 2 for EB2 for City Y.
5. Now Company A and Company B have merged resulting in a new company and retains the name of Company B.
6. Company B has office location in City X.

Question:
Is the PERM/GC 1 application for City X valid. If yes, can i use this to downgrade to EB3, while PERM/GC 2 application for City Y continues to be EB2.
(Provided my company agrees to extend the offer for the job for City X).

Thanks!

[tenyearsgone]

Friends..

Question:
Is the PERM/GC 1 application for City X valid. If yes, can i use this to downgrade to EB3, while PERM/GC 2 application for City Y continues to be EB2.
(Provided my company agrees to extend the offer for the job for City X).

My gut feeling is that you can use the PERM/GC1 assuming you had I-140 also filed. But TBH, my knowledge of the intricacies of PERM is shallow. There's probably very few people on this forum who can give you a very informed answer. Do let us know what your lawyer says. Best of luck!

[redsox2009]

Here is the 2019 March DOS data.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	59	15	04	00	09	00	143	230
EB2	22	07	02	19	117	03	169	339
EB3	024	208	061	424	046	020	529	1312
EB4	00	05	03	02	01	15	123	149
EB5	133	020	000	000	020	016	042	231
Total	238	255	070	445	193	054	1006	2261

[redsox2009]

Interesting Data point in AOS at consular processing is total number of AOS in Q1 is 7075 and in Q2 it is 7076.

When compared with 2018, applications number is down by 2088 untill Q2.

Also Family based AOS at consular processing is down by 12307.

Hopefully this Employment AOS low number might show some positive impact on EB2.

[sudiva]

Hello Gurus, please help me understand possibility of Family Based Spill Over in to any of Employment Based green card numbers. I believe it was mentioned on this thread or some other discussion site at one or two places. Apologize if there is no such spill over and it was not mentioned in this blog. Thank you.

[Spectator]

Interesting Data point in AOS at consular processing is total number of AOS in Q1 is 7075 and in Q2 it is 7076.

When compared with 2018, applications number is down by 2088 untill Q2.

Also Family based AOS at consular processing is down by 12307.

Hopefully this Employment AOS low number might show some positive impact on EB2.

redsox,

Thanks as ever for posting the figures.

It's interesting that Family based Consular approvals are so low, since they represent the majority of FB approvals.

That said, CO has 6 months to corrrect that and all FB categories are retrogressed.

I think it's worth taking a deeper dive into the EB consular approval figures. Although around 2k lower than this point last year, the individual categories show differing trends.

FY2019 vs FY2018
--Diff to Date--
EB1 --- (1,846)
EB2 ------- 43
EB3 ---- 1,978
EB4 ------ 188
EB5 --- (2,451)

Total - (2,088)

With EB1, the category was Current for everybody in Q1/Q2 in FY2018 and has been retrogressed for the entire time in FY2019. The vast majority of EB1 approvals for FY2018 took place in Q1/Q2 (76%), after which EB1-I/C became heavily retrogressed, with ROW also retrogressing for the last 2 months of FY2018.

To sum up, it's not really comparing apples with apples.

The large increase in EB3 has come primarily from India (765 = 310% increase) and ROW (1,519 = 67% increase)

I'm not entirely sure what's going on with EB5.

[rocketfast]

Hello Gurus, please help me understand possibility of Family Based Spill Over in to any of Employment Based green card numbers. I believe it was mentioned on this thread or some other discussion site at one or two places. Apologize if there is no such spill over and it was not mentioned in this blog. Thank you.

Any unused FB numbers gets distributed among EB1, EB2 and EB3 categories equally (not sure whether EB5 gets it too)

Spec has provided the exact formula many times, but I can't seem to get via google search. FAQ looks to lack it too (http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showthread.php/6-FAQs)

[sudiva]

Thank you rocketfast, for pointing me to the FAQ section.

[redsox2009]

USCIS released their data for Q1 2019 485 applications, filing of new applications are also down, this could be in line with the holding the EB1 dates. But EB3I&C filing dates advanced almost an year, EB2 filing dates were advanced by 2 months for EB2I and 6 months for EB2C.

485 Received 27893
Approved 33181



Hope more good news for long waiting people........

[delguy]

USCIS released their data for Q1 2019 485 applications, filing of new applications are also down, this could be in line with the holding the EB1 dates. But EB3I&C filing dates advanced almost an year, EB2 filing dates were advanced by 2 months for EB2I and 6 months for EB2C.

485 Received 27893
Approved 33181



Hope more good news for long waiting people........

Could you please post the link?

[redsox2009]

Could you please post the link?

Here you go.............

https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-...ion-forms-data

[swordfish380]

Hello Spec,
Do you think there will be at least one month movement in eb2i before the end of this fiscal?

[sudiva]

Thanks for the link. How does these numbers look compared to previous Quarterly Reports? Sorry I did not go back to those reports. Will do at my earliest opportunity.

Application for Adjustment of Status (Form I-485) Quarterly Report (Fiscal Year 2019, 1st Quarter, Oct. 1-Dec. 31, 2018)

Employment-based received at service center
Applications Received 27,893
Approved 33,181
Denied 1,543
Pending 154,616

[swordfish380]

What does this mean in terms of PD movement.

[AceMan]

Hello Spec,
Do you think there will be at least one month movement in eb2i before the end of this fiscal?

I expect EB2 I to get around 2900-3000 visas for FY 2019. Based on July 2018 demand data, the best case can be June 1st 2009.