EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[idliman]

Does anyone know a report which shows how many EB2i visas were issued since Oct2018?

Reports on this link have lot of data but not exactly what i m looking for.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html

I am sure some experts here have figured this out. E.g., E31 is EB3 primary, E34 is Eb3 spouse and E35 is EB3 minor children.

[altek001]

There is a huge uncertainty in green card approvals and backlog, some in Trackitt say 2009 priority dates have been stuck for about 4 years now, and we can antipicate another 3 years to clear.

I would like to hear from folks with 2010 priority dates for their fall back plans.

[newyorker123]

There is a huge uncertainty in green card approvals and backlog, some in Trackitt say 2009 priority dates have been stuck for about 4 years now, and we can antipicate another 3 years to clear.

I would like to hear from folks with 2010 priority dates for their fall back plans.

There is NO failback option.
This Admin might continue for up to 6 years (quite likely), the uncertainty for dates will continue.
For people stuck here, too bad.
Alternatives are :
- Go back to home country (India is booming - salaries are touching the roof if one has the skills, same is true of China too)
- Go to Canada/Australia etc
- Try EB1A / EB1B / EB1C

[paramjit74]

The last release of I485 pending inventory was in July 2018. Now the DF for EB3I was open for a short time and the data for pending EB3I or updated EB2I is not available. I am sorry to dampen your spirits. However this is the *worst* case calculation. Take the country quota (~2800), divide it into four quarters and apply to the pending EB2I inventory. There are approx 2177 (=649/2+1429+1411*(9/30)) EB2I applicants in-front of you. It might take 3.1 quarters (2177*4/2800) for your PD to become current. Without quality data there cannot be any prediction unless you consult an Oracle. For best case consider, how many people have ported to EB3, spillover and people who abandoned their petitions.

One of the agenda's of this administration (which the people of USA voted democratically in the last election) is to create uncertainty and discourage immigration into this country. I believe that they are starting to find ways to implement their agenda. A few years ago people who are 3 months away would not have asked such a question.

Thank you!

[NJMavarick]

It seems without pending inventory, we are at the mercy of CO. We all hoped for at least 1 month movement for EB3I but all we got is a 9 days movement. We can all speculate the reasoning behind this but the fact is that no one knows how the dates are going to progress in the future especially for EB3I. July bulletin might bring some sunshine in an otherwise dark world of visa bulletin and green card backlog.

[vsivarama]

Do you think that USCIS would be wasting the visa numbers this year onwards citing process slowdown due to GC Interviews? This administration has shown time and again that it has no qualms breaking the law when it comes to immigration and other issues.

[rocketfast]

Do you think that USCIS would be wasting the visa numbers this year onwards citing process slowdown due to GC Interviews? This administration has shown time and again that it has no qualms breaking the law when it comes to immigration and other issues.

There are no indications so far that there will be wastage of total visa numbers. They haven't wasted it for many years now. What they have done though, is given EB3 the short end of the stick with around 1k to 3k green cards the last few years of EB3-I given to other categories. We are pretty much helpless here and at the mercy of USCIS.

We already know that ROW demand in EB1 and EB2 is "full". If EB3 ROW demand becomes "full" too, we are in more pain than what we have seen so far. With economy continuing to fire all cylinders, it is not against common sense to believe that EB3 ROW demand will only increase. It will be like all our hopes coming to an absolute dead end. But, there is only so much we can do here..

[AceMan]

Do you think that USCIS would be wasting the visa numbers this year onwards citing process slowdown due to GC Interviews? This administration has shown time and again that it has no qualms breaking the law when it comes to immigration and other issues.

Come on, the visa wastage for EB3 I was the highest from 2010 through to 2017 where we lost close to 15,000 visas. The visa usage for 2018 showed close to full utilization in 2018.

[vsivarama]

Come on, the visa wastage for EB3 I was the highest from 2010 through to 2017 where we lost close to 15,000 visas. The visa usage for 2018 showed close to full utilization in 2018.

Aceman,

were they literally wasted or were they used up across other categories (which should have been used for EB3-I)? If I remember the dates in 2007 were current as that year received double the quota of visa numbers which were kind of recaptured from previous years. Do you think we have a case for hat here?

Thanks!!

[AceMan]

Aceman,

were they literally wasted or were they used up across other categories (which should have been used for EB3-I)? If I remember the dates in 2007 were current as that year received double the quota of visa numbers which were kind of recaptured from previous years. Do you think we have a case for hat here?

Thanks!!

Each category is mandated 40040 minimum visa's each year. EB3 did not utilize it when it was backlogged for the entire time barring one year during the entire Obama administration and if you look at the overall numbers it was clear that was used by other EB categories.

The point I was making was the visa wastage for EB3 was the hallmark of the previous Admin, and it is nothing new to be attributed to the Trump administration.

[GCdreamz]

Experts, can you please help me in determine the demand from July 2009 to July2010.

Based on Permchecker, I am getting 22,689 (25425-1599-1137=22,689)
I am subtracting Denied and Withdrawn cases from Total numbers to get Updated Total.
(https://www.permchecker.com/07-01-2009/to/07-01-2010)

Am I missing anything?

Also, assuming at least One dependent, the demand might be 22,689 * 2 right?

[shekhar_kuruk]

Anyone can comment on above?

Will try and help, what do you want to know? 3 - 6 months to become current, after that to get your physical GC could be another 3 - 6 months. That's the best I have for now. Plan accordingly and good luck for you job change.
What else would you like to now? Best case scenario may be just before Christmas this year.

[paramjit74]

Will try and help, what do you want to know? 3 - 6 months to become current, after that to get your physical GC could be another 3 - 6 months. That's the best I have for now. Plan accordingly and good luck for you job change.
What else would you like to now? Best case scenario may be just before Christmas this year.

Thank you !!

[Spectator]

Experts, can you please help me in determine the demand from July 2009 to July2010.

Based on Permchecker, I am getting 22,689 (25425-1599-1137=22,689)
I am subtracting Denied and Withdrawn cases from Total numbers to get Updated Total.
(https://www.permchecker.com/07-01-2009/to/07-01-2010)

Am I missing anything?

Also, assuming at least One dependent, the demand might be 22,689 * 2 right?

GCdreamz,

I don't think that is the figure you want.

What you have from Permchecker is the number of Indian PERM certified during that period, but those PERM covered PD from 2005 to 2010.

I think what you want is the number of PERM certified with a PD of July 2009 through June 2019.

The figures for this are available on this site here

This gives a figure of 16,427 as the maximum number of certifications for that PD period.

Hope that helps.

[smuggymba]

There is a huge uncertainty in green card approvals and backlog, some in Trackitt say 2009 priority dates have been stuck for about 4 years now, and we can antipicate another 3 years to clear.

I would like to hear from folks with 2010 priority dates for their fall back plans.

This wait is getting on my nerves and my PD is March 2010. I can't imagine how it feels for people with later PD's.

We just have to wait it out. The problem now is I'm getting a promotion to a project manager from analyst and confused to take it or not. From reading 100's of threads, it could go either way. How can I be in the same role for 15 years...crazy!!

[qesehmk]

This wait is getting on my nerves and my PD is March 2010. I can't imagine how it feels for people with later PD's.

We just have to wait it out. The problem now is I'm getting a promotion to a project manager from analyst and confused to take it or not. From reading 100's of threads, it could go either way. How can I be in the same role for 15 years...crazy!!

Sorry to see this Smuggymba. You are an old timer.

Hopefully now this should move faster since there are no EB3 downgrades anymore.

As per promotion - I'd say go ahead and take it i went from analyst to manager to director on same GC long time back in the same role. So as long as your nature of work essentially remains same ... don't bother much . ... but of course talk to your company lawyer.

[GCdreamz]

GCdreamz,

I don't think that is the figure you want.

What you have from Permchecker is the number of Indian PERM certified during that period, but those PERM covered PD from 2005 to 2010.

I think what you want is the number of PERM certified with a PD of July 2009 through June 2019.

The figures for this are available on this site here

This gives a figure of 16,427 as the maximum number of certifications for that PD period.

Hope that helps.

Thank you Spec for your reply and providing the details.

From 16,427 number we have to deduct 1. Withdrawn PERM applications, 2. Abandoned PERMS (unknown for sure), 3. EB3-EB2 upgrades (Unknown again) right? I am assuming 25% deduction sounds reasonable. (75% of 16K is 12K)

Also, we have to multiply the Final Number by TWO to count the dependents/Spouse. Right? (12K*2 =24K which will be 3-4 yrs with No Spill Over for July 2010 PD if we count EB2/EB3 in same queue)

Thanks for your help

[GCdreamz]

Sorry to see this Smuggymba. You are an old timer.

Hopefully now this should move faster since there are no EB3 downgrades anymore.

Hi Q, Ain't we allowed to downgrade to EB3 now? I guess you mean possibility of no downgrades by people with PD before Mar 2010.

[EB22010Dec]

Thank you Spec for your reply and providing the details.

From 16,427 number we have to deduct 1. Withdrawn PERM applications, 2. Abandoned PERMS (unknown for sure), 3. EB3-EB2 upgrades (Unknown again) right? I am assuming 25% deduction sounds reasonable. (75% of 16K is 12K)

Also, we have to multiply the Final Number by TWO to count the dependents/Spouse. Right? (12K*2 =24K which will be 3-4 yrs with No Spill Over for July 2010 PD if we count EB2/EB3 in same queue)

Thanks for your help

THANK YOU GC DREAMS and Spec.

I was looking for something similar for a long time. I am glad I found it.
Can you please expand on the below statement -

"12K*2 =24K which will be 3-4 yrs with No-Spill Over for July 2010 PD"

[qesehmk]

Hi Q, Ain't we allowed to downgrade to EB3 now? I guess you mean possibility of no downgrades by people with PD before Mar 2010.

I meant to say upgrades from EB3 to EB2. Sorry for the confusion.

[GCdreamz]

THANK YOU GC DREAMS and Spec.

I was looking for something similar for a long time. I am glad I found it.
Can you please expand on the below statement -

"12K*2 =24K which will be 3-4 yrs with No-Spill Over for July 2010 PD"

There are around 16K PERM applications. 25% of 16K is around 12K. Deducting 25% assuming some PERM applicants are no longer pursuing GC process for different reasons.

Next, I am asking for clarification that if there is at least one dependent then we have 12K (primary) + 12K (dependents) = 24K

Glad to help

[EB22010Dec]

There are around 16K PERM applications. 25% of 16K is around 12K. Deducting 25% assuming some PERM applicants are no longer pursuing GC process for different reasons.

Next, I am asking for clarification that if there is at least one dependent then we have 12K (primary) + 12K (dependents) = 24K

Glad to help

Now how does that become 3 - 4 years. ?

[AceMan]

Now how does that become 3 - 4 years. ?

The demand data of October 2015 shows a reduction of nearly 4000 from January - May 2009 for EB2. So you have to reduce that also from the 24000 calculated. Also remove the 10831 already waiting for AOS from the EB2 pending list will result in a total of around 10000 more waiting in 2009 to adjust in both EB2 and EB3.

However lot of EB2 downgrades will result in double counting of these numbers for a short while and the interest of CO to hold EB3 I at the slightest notion of demand (9 days of forward movement for most retrogressed EB3 is the proof!!!) clearly indicates 2 years will most likely be the norm to clear 2009 if the current scenario continues.

We have been lucky with low EB3 - ROW demand for the last few years. If that starts growing from next year, with the new H1 pre-approval mandate, it can extend the projected 2 year wait time to 3-4 years. More the wait time, more EB2 I will downgrade to EB3 and make the situation literally untenable for anyone beyond May 2010. I know it is a very bleak outlook, but very much plausible.

[lville]

The demand data of October 2015 shows a reduction of nearly 4000 from January - May 2009 for EB2. So you have to reduce that also from the 24000 calculated. Also remove the 10831 already waiting for AOS from the EB2 pending list will result in a total of around 10000 more waiting in 2009 to adjust in both EB2 and EB3.

However lot of EB2 downgrades will result in double counting of these numbers for a short while and the interest of CO to hold EB3 I at the slightest notion of demand (9 days of forward movement for most retrogressed EB3 is the proof!!!) clearly indicates 2 years will most likely be the norm to clear 2009 if the current scenario continues.

We have been lucky with low EB3 - ROW demand for the last few years. If that starts growing from next year, with the new H1 pre-approval mandate, it can extend the projected 2 year wait time to 3-4 years. More the wait time, more EB2 I will downgrade to EB3 and make the situation literally untenable for anyone beyond May 2010. I know it is a very bleak outlook, but very much plausible.

WOW! This is scary. My PD is May 22, 2009 and its starting to stress me out. I'm so close and yet so far. Hopefully they accept EAD dates soon, that way at-least I have an EAD/AP for travel. I was planning on switching to EB3 but have decided not to. BTW What's the projection for My PD of EB-I May 22,2009 to be current ?

[NJMavarick]

The demand data of October 2015 shows a reduction of nearly 4000 from January - May 2009 for EB2. So you have to reduce that also from the 24000 calculated. Also remove the 10831 already waiting for AOS from the EB2 pending list will result in a total of around 10000 more waiting in 2009 to adjust in both EB2 and EB3.

However lot of EB2 downgrades will result in double counting of these numbers for a short while and the interest of CO to hold EB3 I at the slightest notion of demand (9 days of forward movement for most retrogressed EB3 is the proof!!!) clearly indicates 2 years will most likely be the norm to clear 2009 if the current scenario continues.

We have been lucky with low EB3 - ROW demand for the last few years. If that starts growing from next year, with the new H1 pre-approval mandate, it can extend the projected 2 year wait time to 3-4 years. More the wait time, more EB2 I will downgrade to EB3 and make the situation literally untenable for anyone beyond May 2010. I know it is a very bleak outlook, but very much plausible.

If I interpret this correctly, the notion of EB3I Filing date moving into 2011 is no longer a possibility?