EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

Ultimately it may work out to that 3+3+3+3=12 Months!!But from what I am hearing about interviews being scheduled within 6 Months of filing I-485, April 2010 for EB3I should be current by the Sept VB.

I would think 2 months each for May and June bulletins and then the downgrades which have been happening from October - Jan will come into play as their new 140 filed would come into picture. If the numbers are manageable, July bulletin might see Eb3 I hitting January 2010. January - April 2010 this FY is a very long shot from where I see.

[AceMan]

Hello Katana

Welcome to forum. Have you thought about keeping both 485s? If not that's what I would do if I were you.

A person can be sponsored by two three or 100 different employers. So just ask your new employer to file a new EB1-B. So no risk of portability. And leave current employer on good terms with the understanding that they won't withdraw the 485. Both applications anyway are for future employment. So you should be good.

Talk to a lawyer and see if this makes sense to them.

Q, 2 active 485's ? One would be rejected right? Did you mean 140's? Is it not interfiling?

[qesehmk]

Thanks Ace for correcting. I think you are right. It's 140 that's we are talking about. He only needs one 485 to adjust his status ... he can do so using either 140 depending on which employer he is employed at or will be employed at!!

Having said that it may be entirely possible that USCIS indeed accepts two separate 485s ... I don't know. That's why speaking to lawyer is a good idea. I would hate to see someone in EB1B category shortchanged due to shortcomings of the immigration system.

Q, 2 active 485's ? One would be rejected right? Did you mean 140's? Is it not interfiling?

[sale3609]

Gurus

Seeking your advice.

My PD is April 2010. I have approved I-140 in EB3-I and EB2-I (ported) with same employer. Please guide me if should I take any action now or just wait till EB3-I touches April 2010 to downgrade. Thanks in advance.

[AceMan]

Thanks Ace for correcting. I think you are right. It's 140 that's we are talking about. He only needs one 485 to adjust his status ... he can do so using either 140 depending on which employer he is employed at or will be employed at!!

Having said that it may be entirely possible that USCIS indeed accepts two separate 485s ... I don't know. That's why speaking to lawyer is a good idea. I would hate to see someone in EB1B category shortchanged due to shortcomings of the immigration system.

I see this in avvo

https://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/c...m-3372509.html

One lawyer suggestion is Bad idea.. While there can be multiple (2+) immigrant petitions filed on your behalf, e.g. one family-based and another employment-based and/or self-petition, in contrast there can only be one (1) I-485 AOS that you can individually file for. There cannot be two "floating in the system" concurrently.

[katana]

I see this in avvo

https://www.avvo.com/legal-answers/c...m-3372509.html

One lawyer suggestion is Bad idea.. While there can be multiple (2+) immigrant petitions filed on your behalf, e.g. one family-based and another employment-based and/or self-petition, in contrast there can only be one (1) I-485 AOS that you can individually file for. There cannot be two "floating in the system" concurrently.

Thanks Aceman and spec. The challenge with EB1A/B is the sheer amount of evidence one needs to collect to prove one's worth. Additionally, you are required to also submit letters from experts in your area who can attest to your credentials. I am not sure how much I can reuse from my current i140 petition and having to get them all over again would easily be a 6-8 month process, including prep to for the lawyers at the very least. And after that another 2 weeks (if premium and no RFE) or 8+ months if regular.

I am more inclined towards a i485J for the above reasons and hence trying to understand what that might entail.

Regards

[aquatican]

@katana, i recently filed a I485J ( in response to RFE). if you sticking close to your original job description and field. its a pretty low risk application. with an EAD in hand this seems like a good strategy to change employers.

[katana]

@katana, i recently filed a I485J ( in response to RFE). if you sticking close to your original job description and field. its a pretty low risk application. with an EAD in hand this seems like a good strategy to change employers.

Thanks! Going by your footnote, it looks like for you it took about 3 months to get the i485j approved? Would you say I should also expect a similar timeline, or do you happen to know anyone who has been waiting for longer?

Thanks again

[aquatican]

@katana It took that time to respond to the RFE. I got the approval for supplement J relatively quick in a month or so but that doesn't mean anything. is this supplement in the current processing time chart ? that would be a better predictor.

[katana]

@katana It took that time to respond to the RFE. I got the approval for supplement J relatively quick in a month or so but that doesn't mean anything. is this supplement in the current processing time chart ? that would be a better predictor.

Nope, I don't see times listed for I485-J. I am looking at trackitt data to see how long it has been taking of late. Thanks...

[altek001]

USCIS director may be leaving sooner.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/10/p...ley/index.html

[mcmilers]

USCIS director may be leaving sooner.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/10/p...ley/index.html

All the changes made by the administration are only going to be negative for us.

[idliman]

All the changes made by the administration are only going to be negative for us.

I agree. For people who do not know, Cissna (Lee Francis Cissna) the current director of USCIS is an immigration hard liner. Read his profile called The Man Behind Trump's Invisible Wall in politico https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...profile-220141. He worked for Senator Chuck Grassley (the famous hold in senate for Fairness of High Skilled Immigrants law). He had openly commented that he does not like the removal of per country quota. They are removing a hardliner to replace him with an extreme version of an immigration hardliner. All I can say is that the chances of anything happening this year or next for legal immigration are slim. We can pray for a Kushner miracle against Stephen Miller. The President needs to excite his base and one way is to rev-up the volume on immigration issue. DT has to present a more extreme version of himself to get reelected.

[lville]

I agree. For people who do not know, Cissna (Lee Francis Cissna) the current director of USCIS is an immigration hard liner. Read his profile called The Man Behind Trump's Invisible Wall in politico https://www.politico.com/magazine/st...profile-220141. He worked for Senator Chuck Grassley (the famous hold in senate for Fairness of High Skilled Immigrants law). He had openly commented that he does not like the removal of per country quota. They are removing a hardliner to replace him with an extreme version of an immigration hardliner. All I can say is that the chances of anything happening this year or next for legal immigration are slim. We can pray for a Kushner miracle against Stephen Miller. The President needs to excite his base and one way is to rev-up the volume on immigration issue. DT has to present a more extreme version of himself to get reelected.

I for one love the way immigration is shaping up in this country. There are too many illegals and legals taking advantage of lax immigration system. They need to make it more stringent and lower per country quota ASAP. That's just me tho (BTW I'm EB2-I).

[idliman]

May 2019 VB is out.
EB1I-FA 22FEB2017 (0 days movement)
EB2I-FA 16APR2009 (+4 days movement)
EB3I-FA 01JUL2009 (+9 days movement)

[idliman]

I for one love the way immigration is shaping up in this country. There are too many illegals and legals taking advantage of lax immigration system. They need to make it more stringent and lower per country quota ASAP. That's just me tho (BTW I'm EB2-I).

Just curious what made you support per country quota? Maybe you have come across too many people from India/China in the work environment that are abusing the system. What I am used to is an environment where there are only one or two individuals from China/India and the rest are from other countries. Everyone has an education from good schools in the US and there is no concept of fake resumes. If you do that you will be in jail soon. I have personally seen at least 10+ young engineers from other countries, getting GC and then Citizenship. It matters as we could not work on some exciting technical problems that involve clearances. Why should good people be punished for the actions of some bad apples?

[paramjit74]

Hello experts,

Can someone try giving best case, likely and worst case scenarios for June 8 2009 EB2 to get GC (applied 485 in 2015)? I have to take a job change related decision based on that.

[EB22010Dec]

May 2019 VB is out.
EB1I-FA 22FEB2017 (0 days movement)
EB2I-FA 16APR2009 (+4 days movement)
EB3I-FA 01JUL2009 (+9 days movement)

Can someone tell me why the movement is so slow?
Do you anticipate it to last into later this year and next?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Gurus

Seeking your advice.

My PD is April 2010. I have approved I-140 in EB3-I and EB2-I (ported) with same employer. Please guide me if should I take any action now or just wait till EB3-I touches April 2010 to downgrade. Thanks in advance.

You are basically running in both the lanes and I don't see any issue for you to file in EB3 when you become current there. I don't think you are downgrading or upgrading, since you have both I-140 petitions already approved.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Can someone tell me why the movement is so slow?
Do you anticipate it to last into later this year and next?

I would think so.

[EB22010Dec]

I would think so.

Can you expand on your answer .. please.

[Ind2009]

Can you expand on your answer .. please.

Item D in the May Visa bulletin might have an indication on what we can expect for the remainder of the year.
At this time, they have only referred EB1. Will have to wait and watch how the remaining categories progress.

D. CHINA-mainland born AND INDIA EMPLOYMENT-BASED FIRST (E1) PREFERENCE VISA AVAILABILITY

Despite the final action date for these two countries having been held in recent months, there continues to be an extremely high rate of demand for E1 numbers, primarily for USCIS adjustment of status applicants. This situation may require the retrogression of this final action date in an effort to limit future number use.

Such action would only be temporary, with the date for these two countries returning to the latest reached during fiscal year 2019 for October, the first month of fiscal year 2020.

[paramjit74]

Hello experts,

Can someone try giving best case, likely and worst case scenarios for June 8 2009 EB2 to get GC (applied 485 in 2015)? I have to take a job change related decision based on that.

Anyone can comment on above?

[swordfish380]

Does anyone know a report which shows how many EB2i visas were issued since Oct2018?

Reports on this link have lot of data but not exactly what i m looking for.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...tatistics.html

[idliman]

Can someone try giving best case, likely and worst case scenarios for June 8 2009 EB2 to get GC (applied 485 in 2015)? I have to take a job change related decision based on that.

The last release of I485 pending inventory was in July 2018. Now the DF for EB3I was open for a short time and the data for pending EB3I or updated EB2I is not available. I am sorry to dampen your spirits. However this is the *worst* case calculation. Take the country quota (~2800), divide it into four quarters and apply to the pending EB2I inventory. There are approx 2177 (=649/2+1429+1411*(9/30)) EB2I applicants in-front of you. It might take 3.1 quarters (2177*4/2800) for your PD to become current. Without quality data there cannot be any prediction unless you consult an Oracle. For best case consider, how many people have ported to EB3, spillover and people who abandoned their petitions.

One of the agenda's of this administration (which the people of USA voted democratically in the last election) is to create uncertainty and discourage immigration into this country. I believe that they are starting to find ways to implement their agenda. A few years ago people who are 3 months away would not have asked such a question.