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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #4826
    Quote Originally Posted by GCdreamz View Post
    Below comment and unsaid things about EB3I are the only positive thing in the monthly check-in with charlie. Especially since Philippines is one of the country using more unused EB3 worldwide numbers. Hope EB3I moves to Dec 2009 at least by end of FY 2019....of course more movement is always better.
    "The demand for EB-3 Philippines is low, which will continue to generate forward movement."

    https://www.sivisalaw.com/immigratio...lie-oppenheim/
    I asked this question earlier, but did not see any answer may be it is too naive.
    How can Philippines use more EB3 visa than their per country limit, I know they used 7K+ per year from last few years and also same with South Korea in EB2.

    Do they have some treaty or the horizontal SO go to least retrogressed countries first?

  2. #4827
    Sophomore
    Join Date
    Aug 2013
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    Quote Originally Posted by KingofJoy View Post
    Hello Gurus, long time dormant user. May be a dumb question and please move it to appropriate thread.
    Q: Can i move to Employer B with a totally different title (Engineering Manager) where my I-140 is approved from employer A with Senior Developer title and re-use the I-140?

    My PD is 2011 April and was for Senior software engineer and wants to take Engineering Manager with another employer who is willing to sponsor. Please let me know.
    You cannot reuse the I140 .. you'll need a new Labor and I140. You can carry over the priority date assuming your current I140 has been pending for 6 months. Do check with Employer B's attorney to confirm.

  3. #4828
    Here is the 2019 Feb DOS data.


    China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total
    EB1 68 18 07 00 09 00 131 233
    EB2 12 02 03 15 83 04 172 291
    EB3 004 200 084 353 038 002 574 1255
    EB4 00 07 08 08 00 04 157 184
    EB5 364 017 002 003 002 019 138 545
    Total 448 244 104 379 132 029 1172 2508

    Filings under EB2 is slowing down, which is a piece of good news to EB2I. Also in EB3, there is a steady increase in the volume, in the future not sure how this will impact.

  4. #4829
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Here is the 2019 Feb DOS data.


    China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total
    EB1 68 18 07 00 09 00 131 233
    EB2 12 02 03 15 83 04 172 291
    EB3 004 200 084 353 038 002 574 1255
    EB4 00 07 08 08 00 04 157 184
    EB5 364 017 002 003 002 019 138 545
    Total 448 244 104 379 132 029 1172 2508

    Filings under EB2 is slowing down, which is a piece of good news to EB2I. Also in EB3, there is a steady increase in the volume, in the future not sure how this will impact.

    Can some one explain what this is ... in layman terms.

  5. #4830
    How can Philippines use more EB3 visa than their per country limit, I know they used 7K+ per year from last few years and also same with South Korea in EB2.
    The country quota is not category specific. So if Philippines uses 0 in EB2, they can use 5600 in EB3.

  6. #4831
    Quote Originally Posted by rocketfast View Post
    The country quota is not category specific. So if Philippines uses 0 in EB2, they can use 5600 in EB3.
    Thanks, makes sense.

  7. #4832
    Quote Originally Posted by tenyearsgone View Post
    You cannot reuse the I140 .. you'll need a new Labor and I140. You can carry over the priority date assuming your current I140 has been pending for 6 months. Do check with Employer B's attorney to confirm.
    Thanks tenyearsgone - So i can retain my PD (i.e. 2011) even with new PERM and I-140 from new employer?

  8. #4833
    @waitingsoldier, Congrats! interview is another major milestone in GC path. Did you submit your Medical along with I-485? How long a medical is valid?

    I am preparing documents will file once my date is current in May bulletin. My Lawyer asked me to do the medical and submit along with all documents, but when I approached a USCIS specified surgeon in local, he advised me that I should go for Medical only 60 days prior to Interview. Will there be any complications if I don't submit medical during initial filing.?

  9. #4834
    @IamGSN:
    I did not do my medical as our attorney advised to wait till interview is setup. Since the medicals are valid for 2 years, it is advised to wait till interview, but you can file wtih your I-485 as well, nothing wrong in doing that.

  10. #4835
    Hello Gurus, Need your valuable input. I am on EAD with 485 filled in 2012. If I want to switch the job, Do I need to file a Supplemental J 485 for job portability and get it approved by USCIS before starting my new Job ?. What would be the impact of cancelling/revoking my I-140 by the current employer before the J-485 is approved by USCIS?.

  11. #4836
    @waitingsoldier Thanks, it makes sense.

  12. #4837

  13. #4838
    Pandit
    Join Date
    Feb 2014
    Location
    Sunny SoCal
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    108
    EB-3 India is marching ahead. There's already a case on trackitt that got interviewed this month with Aug,2009 PD. There are many folks that got interview scheduled with July,2009 PDs. These cases were filed after Oct 1,2018 and interview notices sent from NBC directly with interview scheduled in local FOs. The turnaround time is less than 6 months.

    May bulletin will most likely have Aug 22,2009 as FAD for EB-3 India. I wont' be surprised if EB-3 India 2010 folks get interview scheduled in the final quarter of this FY. Good luck to everyone!

  14. #4839
    Quote Originally Posted by jimmys View Post
    EB-3 India is marching ahead. There's already a case on trackitt that got interviewed this month with Aug,2009 PD. There are many folks that got interview scheduled with July,2009 PDs. These cases were filed after Oct 1,2018 and interview notices sent from NBC directly with interview scheduled in local FOs. The turnaround time is less than 6 months.

    May bulletin will most likely have Aug 22,2009 as FAD for EB-3 India. I wont' be surprised if EB-3 India 2010 folks get interview scheduled in the final quarter of this FY. Good luck to everyone!
    Good observation. It is definitely a pointer to the shape of things to come. I remember in 2015 the first time long suffering 2004 PD EB3I guys started getting RFE's and subsequently the trackitt thread was started and Dec 2004PD EB3I became current. DOS/USCIS were in a mad scramble to utilize the SO Visas. Looks like it could be a similar scenario this year for EB3I. If interview has been scheduled, then becoming current is only a matter of time and those folks can definitely hope to be greened in this FY itself.

  15. #4840
    Guys,
    Have been a lurker and a silent reader of this forum for quite some time. Please keep up the I have a few questions related to my situation. Kindly excuse me in case I posted in the wrong forum. Do appreciate any and all the help!

    I have an approved I140 for my EB1B application (PD: 05/27/2017) and my I485 has been pending for about two years (concurrent filing). As you would know, the FAD for EB1 India is currently stuck at Feb 22 2017. With Charlie Oppenheim almost suggesting that no forward movement can be expected over the next several months, I am exploring making a move using AC 21 & H1-B transfer as a fall back. I am expecting to receive an exciting offer from a startup in the bay area, who have been very accommodating and willing to carry forward my EB1 GC. For this, I believe we will need to do an I485-J. My questions are:

    a) Do you think I am risking my GC by attempting to move while being close to getting current? Is the next movement in EB1 I only expected to happen in the new FY? Are there any spillovers anticipated?

    b) Should the I485-J be approved before I can expect my I485's adjudication? The future employer's lawyer gave me conflicting information regarding this. However, she thinks that the I 485-J can take 4-6 months for approval. So, I am worried that, if by the time my date becomes current, what would happen to my I 485 if my I485-J is still pending? I don't want to risk losing the opportunity of getting the GC the next time my date becomes current, since it is possible that the dates might retrogress/the quota is reached before they clear my I485-J.

    While, the offer and the prospects at the new job look great, I don't want to risk my green card application and lose more time, having put in 2+ years into the process. Any advises and suggestions would be much appreciated!

    Best,
    Katana

  16. #4841
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    Good observation. It is definitely a pointer to the shape of things to come. I remember in 2015 the first time long suffering 2004 PD EB3I guys started getting RFE's and subsequently the trackitt thread was started and Dec 2004PD EB3I became current. DOS/USCIS were in a mad scramble to utilize the SO Visas. Looks like it could be a similar scenario this year for EB3I. If interview has been scheduled, then becoming current is only a matter of time and those folks can definitely hope to be greened in this FY itself.

    Indians find satisfaction in following other Indians blindly. This behavior is embedded in our culture and is weirdly instinctive.

    If Eb3i's had stayed in their own line they would have done better this year.

    The same sympathy should be for eb2i's. 2009 folks have not received GC's and this year marks 10 years in waiting.


    Spec and Q , you guys have not provided your guidance for this year. With out your posts there is very little to none useful discussion. How will this year be for eb2 and 3i's?

  17. #4842
    Quote Originally Posted by katana View Post
    a) Do you think I am risking my GC by attempting to move while being close to getting current? Is the next movement in EB1 I only expected to happen in the new FY? Are there any spillovers anticipated?

    b) Should the I485-J be approved before I can expect my I485's adjudication? The future employer's lawyer gave me conflicting information regarding this. However, she thinks that the I 485-J can take 4-6 months for approval. So, I am worried that, if by the time my date becomes current, what would happen to my I 485 if my I485-J is still pending? I don't want to risk losing the opportunity of getting the GC the next time my date becomes current, since it is possible that the dates might retrogress/the quota is reached before they clear my I485-J.
    The first task is to calculate, how many people are in-front of you in EB1I queue. Then come up with a conservative approach based on yearly EB1I quota. You are behind the current PD by three months, so that should take at most a year to clear.

    Second is regarding the future job offer and portability. Can your new job also justify the same or similar category requirements? With EB1B, you are already special and just want to make sure that your future employer can port you safely.

    I would suggest paying one of the online attorneys and having a one hour session. Having spent enough time waiting on the GC bench, one is year no deal for people with EB2I petitions. However, your situation / perspective might be different.

  18. #4843
    Quote Originally Posted by aquatican View Post
    totally agree @imdeng. This is a great forum and i have never seen Q push his site. in fact there was free access to that site for forum members for some time if i recall correctly.

    The speculation has gone silent because there is nothing to speculate about . Without Pending Inventory we have Zero visibility as to what the size of the Queue is so how to we figure out the speed of movement? lol
    USCIS has some mysterious rationale about why they don't want to disclose that report. i heard a rumor or some memo about they want you NOT to have the information to stop reverse porting.
    which is just bad bad news if its true.
    I think a lot of our GC hopefuls are a lot smarter than the idiots at the agencies that try to screw us over. A lot of them already have 2 Perms because they have originally filed in EB3 and then filed again via EB2. This category has nothing to lose by running in both the lanes. The bold hopefuls(those who have only EB2 Perm) and have started their porting are the real buccaneers. Lady luck always favors the brave.

  19. #4844
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    The first task is to calculate, how many people are in-front of you in EB1I queue. Then come up with a conservative approach based on yearly EB1I quota. You are behind the current PD by three months, so that should take at most a year to clear.

    Second is regarding the future job offer and portability. Can your new job also justify the same or similar category requirements? With EB1B, you are already special and just want to make sure that your future employer can port you safely.

    I would suggest paying one of the online attorneys and having a one hour session. Having spent enough time waiting on the GC bench, one is year no deal for people with EB2I petitions. However, your situation / perspective might be different.
    Idliman, thanks a lot for your insights. I have requested the new company's attorneys for a thorough review and recommendations of both, H1-B and GC portability. I expect to hear back from them tomorrow. Based on first impressions, we should be able to satisfy the same or similar requirement.

    Regarding the online attorneys - can you recommend someone? I do not mind speaking to a qualified attorney or two, and get their perspective.

    It's good to know that I can hope to be current in a year at most. What is the earliest you would think I could become current (July? October?). Also, any advise on how long the 485-J approvals take? Again, appreciate all the feedback.

    The way I am looking at it - even if 484 J takes 6 months to get approved, but I won't become current by October, then I should not lose my place in the queue (technically). Now, if Mr. Oppenheim is being too conservative with EB1I movement and the dates move in July, and I am stuck in 485-J approval process, then I would regret the move!

    Best

  20. #4845
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
    Posts
    313
    Quote Originally Posted by katana View Post
    Idliman, thanks a lot for your insights. I have requested the new company's attorneys for a thorough review and recommendations of both, H1-B and GC portability. I expect to hear back from them tomorrow. Based on first impressions, we should be able to satisfy the same or similar requirement.

    The way I am looking at it - even if 484 J takes 6 months to get approved, but I won't become current by October, then I should not lose my place in the queue (technically). Now, if Mr. Oppenheim is being too conservative with EB1I movement and the dates move in July, and I am stuck in 485-J approval process, then I would regret the move!

    Best
    Katana - I was trying to understand the situation and you made a statement "I am exploring making a move using AC 21 & H1-B transfer as a fall back."

    So have you applied in EB1 based on an international transfer or past manager experience outside US?
    The reason I am asking this question is for the Guru's here to ponder if the above is the situation, the H1-B transfer may work but can the EB1 GC application from company B will be valid or not as the basic situation of working outside US in a branch in a manager capacity may not stand? AC21 may work, or your situation is you have a PhD or something and the above is invalid question.

  21. #4846
    Quote Originally Posted by waitingsoldier View Post
    Does not sound too great for EB2I and EB3I for the rest of the fiscal year
    EB3 I is moving on month to month even though the official projection in February was 3 months a bulletin. It should move along pretty well for the remainder of the fiscal year.

  22. #4847
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    Katana - I was trying to understand the situation and you made a statement "I am exploring making a move using AC 21 & H1-B transfer as a fall back."

    So have you applied in EB1 based on an international transfer or past manager experience outside US?
    The reason I am asking this question is for the Guru's here to ponder if the above is the situation, the H1-B transfer may work but can the EB1 GC application from company B will be valid or not as the basic situation of working outside US in a branch in a manager capacity may not stand? AC21 may work, or your situation is you have a PhD or something and the above is invalid question.
    No, I am not an EB1C candidate (aka multinational manager/executive). Rather, my case was filed and approved under EB1B (Outstanding Researcher) Category. So, my understanding is the new job needs to be same or similar to the one for which I have an approved I140. And, I am confident we can prove this is the case for the job I am pursuing, but also speaking to lawyers to confirm the same.

    Regards,

  23. #4848
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    EB3 I is moving on month to month even though the official projection in February was 3 months a bulletin. It should move along pretty well for the remainder of the fiscal year.
    Ultimately it may work out to that 3+3+3+3=12 Months!!But from what I am hearing about interviews being scheduled within 6 Months of filing I-485, April 2010 for EB3I should be current by the Sept VB.

  24. #4849
    Hello Katana

    Welcome to forum. Have you thought about keeping both 485s? If not that's what I would do if I were you.

    A person can be sponsored by two three or 100 different employers. So just ask your new employer to file a new EB1-B. So no risk of portability. And leave current employer on good terms with the understanding that they won't withdraw the 485. Both applications anyway are for future employment. So you should be good.

    Talk to a lawyer and see if this makes sense to them.

    Quote Originally Posted by katana View Post
    Guys,
    Have been a lurker and a silent reader of this forum for quite some time. Please keep up the I have a few questions related to my situation. Kindly excuse me in case I posted in the wrong forum. Do appreciate any and all the help!

    I have an approved I140 for my EB1B application (PD: 05/27/2017) and my I485 has been pending for about two years (concurrent filing). As you would know, the FAD for EB1 India is currently stuck at Feb 22 2017. With Charlie Oppenheim almost suggesting that no forward movement can be expected over the next several months, I am exploring making a move using AC 21 & H1-B transfer as a fall back. I am expecting to receive an exciting offer from a startup in the bay area, who have been very accommodating and willing to carry forward my EB1 GC. For this, I believe we will need to do an I485-J. My questions are:

    a) Do you think I am risking my GC by attempting to move while being close to getting current? Is the next movement in EB1 I only expected to happen in the new FY? Are there any spillovers anticipated?

    b) Should the I485-J be approved before I can expect my I485's adjudication? The future employer's lawyer gave me conflicting information regarding this. However, she thinks that the I 485-J can take 4-6 months for approval. So, I am worried that, if by the time my date becomes current, what would happen to my I 485 if my I485-J is still pending? I don't want to risk losing the opportunity of getting the GC the next time my date becomes current, since it is possible that the dates might retrogress/the quota is reached before they clear my I485-J.

    While, the offer and the prospects at the new job look great, I don't want to risk my green card application and lose more time, having put in 2+ years into the process. Any advises and suggestions would be much appreciated!

    Best,
    Katana
    I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
    I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
    Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.

    Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread


  25. #4850
    Quote Originally Posted by qesehmk View Post
    Hello Katana

    Welcome to forum. Have you thought about keeping both 485s? If not that's what I would do if I were you.

    A person can be sponsored by two three or 100 different employers. So just ask your new employer to file a new EB1-B. So no risk of portability. And leave current employer on good terms with the understanding that they won't withdraw the 485. Both applications anyway are for future employment. So you should be good.

    Talk to a lawyer and see if this makes sense to them.
    Q, thanks for the suggestion. I will look into it.

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