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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #4776
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    The downgrading of EB2I to EB3I for people at end of 2009 and beginning of 2010 makes sense only with I140 premium. For that you need to be with the same employer who did the PERM for you. I am hoping that they will still allow concurrent I140+I485 one year from now (there is a proposed rule to change that).

    Looking at 3 months movement per year for EB2I in 2009 and till May 2010, if EB3I is ahead by three months, it is still worth a "chance". However, the safest way is to do the porting only when the FAD is current and not based on DF. My 2c. HTH.

    Please read my post again. You did not answer my question. It seems like you are answering based on your priority date which is at the end of 2009.

    I only want to know how many months it will take to downgrade from eb-2 I to eb-3 I before your 485 is approved. With assumption that eb3i date is current.

  2. #4777
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Please clarify. I am EB2I with PD of 23NOV09 with EAD and have changed to a new employer. I am starting a new PERM now so that I will have another option via EB3I. EB2 Vs EB3 is decided in I140 stage. I am going to decide in 9-12 months time (say JAN2020 to MAR2020) when my PERM is approved on EB2 or EB3 route. When I file I140 in Premium, will I file I485 also or not required?
    Perm from initiation to the completion with advertisements will easily take more than 12 months. You can file I140 in premium and once it is approved you will do the interfile 485 only as you already have one pending. The time frame for you if you don't have any RFE's using this route is going to be 15-18 months

    I am just trying to understand what motivates a person already with an EAD to take these extra activities (or stress as I see it) when you can have your GC mailed to your address within the next 18-24 months. Anticipation anxiety? urge to do something just for the sake of it and not realizing what you already have is one of the best cases?

  3. #4778
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Perm from initiation to the completion with advertisements will easily take more than 12 months. You can file I140 in premium and once it is approved you will do the interfile 485 only as you already have one pending. The time frame for you if you don't have any RFE's using this route is going to be 15-18 months

    I am just trying to understand what motivates a person already with an EAD to take these extra activities (or stress as I see it) when you can have your GC mailed to your address within the next 18-24 months. Anticipation anxiety? urge to do something just for the sake of it and not realizing what you already have is one of the best cases?
    I think you’re being optimistic with 18-24 months. EB2I is moving 3 days a month, without spillover that’s 5 years to reach Dec 2009. Perfectly understandable why someone would want to switch to EB3I in that case

  4. #4779
    Gurus, What is the chance that HR1044(Currently has 224 cosponsors) /S.386 passes (21 cosponsores) would become a law? and how does that impact the current backlog/timing

  5. #4780
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    Quote Originally Posted by mrperfect View Post
    Gurus, What is the chance that HR1044(Currently has 224 cosponsors) /S.386 passes (21 cosponsores) would become a law? and how does that impact the current backlog/timing
    I am not a Guru but can chime in. Chances are close to zero of HR1044 passing.

  6. #4781
    Quote Originally Posted by ferric View Post
    I think you’re being optimistic with 18-24 months. EB2I is moving 3 days a month, without spillover that’s 5 years to reach Dec 2009. Perfectly understandable why someone would want to switch to EB3I in that case
    Every year EB2 India gets 2804 visas, SO no included. In 2018 Eb2 India got about 4096 visas. Eb2 - ROW is still current and EB2 I will get some SO for FY 19.

    The basic SO with the mandatory numbers would get his dates within 18-24 months as the total waiting according to the demand data is under 8000 for his dates.

    3 days movement you are seeing is not a permanent feature. People need to make sure they correct the inaccurate assumptions and just jump to another category based on that.

  7. #4782
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    Jan 2019
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Perm from initiation to the completion with advertisements will easily take more than 12 months. You can file I140 in premium and once it is approved you will do the interfile 485 only as you already have one pending. The time frame for you if you don't have any RFE's using this route is going to be 15-18 months

    I am just trying to understand what motivates a person already with an EAD to take these extra activities (or stress as I see it) when you can have your GC mailed to your address within the next 18-24 months. Anticipation anxiety? urge to do something just for the sake of it and not realizing what you already have is one of the best cases?
    Why do they need to do advertisements and perm? Can’t they downgrade using EB2 PERM?

  8. #4783
    Quote Originally Posted by EB32010 View Post
    Why do they need to do advertisements and perm? Can’t they downgrade using EB2 PERM?
    He is keeping his EB2 petition on which he has an EAD, and his new Eb3 petition separate with a new PERM. A very smart move to avoid any potential questions.

  9. #4784
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Please clarify. I am EB2I with PD of 23NOV09 with EAD and have changed to a new employer. I am starting a new PERM now so that I will have another option via EB3I. EB2 Vs EB3 is decided in I140 stage. I am going to decide in 9-12 months time (say JAN2020 to MAR2020) when my PERM is approved on EB2 or EB3 route. When I file I140 in Premium, will I file I485 also or not required?

    Not sure, if you can downgrade from EB2 to EB3 after changing employer ?

  10. #4785
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    He is keeping his EB2 petition on which he has an EAD, and his new Eb3 petition separate with a new PERM. A very smart move to avoid any potential questions.
    AceMan and others: Thanks for commenting. I just wanted to have a backup for EB2I. For EB2I, it might take 2 to 3 years to reach my PD (23NOV09). I expect EB3I to be current for me in 12-15 months time and not EB2I. In that case, I want to use the EB3I route without touching the existing EB2I. Now if I get PERM audits that will be different. I am the only H1B in my company (out of 300+) and non US Citizens don't get hired unless they have exceptional qualifications (like a PhD and/or subject matter expertise). So our company is not H1B dependent. And I am hoping for I140 premium to be available at that time (say MAR2020). Now, what I am not clear is what happens to I485? How long does it take for a hypothetical EB2I with pending I485 doing a down-porting (EB2 to EB3)?

  11. #4786
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    I am just trying to understand what motivates a person already with an EAD to take these extra activities (or stress as I see it) when you can have your GC mailed to your address within the next 18-24 months. Anticipation anxiety? urge to do something just for the sake of it and not realizing what you already have is one of the best cases?
    Just a backup. And I feel that the company had made so much profit utilizing my skills that the cost of PERM (~$6000) is peanuts for them. Maybe I can get the PERM done in 9 to 12 months per the law firm (best case).

  12. #4787
    Quote Originally Posted by mrperfect View Post
    Gurus, What is the chance that HR1044(Currently has 224 cosponsors) /S.386 passes (21 cosponsores) would become a law? and how does that impact the current backlog/timing
    With MAGA DT administration and senate/house republicans in re-election mode, don't expect anything to happen (It will be a miracle). Most republicans (including Lindsey Graham) are fearing a primary challenger from Right. We have been there many times and have already been burnt repeatedly on this law. Just go on with your life assuming nothing is going to happen till the presidential elections are over.

    Now if Stephen Miller tells DT that this will be a good backdoor to make wholesale changes to immigration that will be a game changer.

  13. #4788
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Just a backup. And I feel that the company had made so much profit utilizing my skills that the cost of PERM (~$6000) is peanuts for them. Maybe I can get the PERM done in 9 to 12 months per the law firm (best case).
    Ok. Just to be clear, if you are applying for EB3, the salary offer will have to match what you are drawing currently. Otherwise lawyers can make you accept a lower package by holding up GC carrot.

    Good luck man.

  14. #4789
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Just a backup. And I feel that the company had made so much profit utilizing my skills that the cost of PERM (~$6000) is peanuts for them. Maybe I can get the PERM done in 9 to 12 months per the law firm (best case).
    Now a days Prevailing Wage Determination itself takes 5 months. Mine was applied in Nov and I still don't have it. After that Perm can take at least 6-8 months in best case (no audit).

  15. #4790
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Ok. Just to be clear, if you are applying for EB3, the salary offer will have to match what you are drawing currently. Otherwise lawyers can make you accept a lower package by holding up GC carrot.

    Good luck man.
    Does the salary really have to match what's on the Perm? afaik, Perm only mandates a minimum wage level. There are many companies paying well over the minimum wage level for Eb2 or Eb3.

    I wouldn't worry about the salary negotiation and such. There's a good number of unsavory lawyers, but if you feel confident about your standing within the company, then there's not much risk. No harm in trying ... you can always drop the downgrade request if that's the point of contention with your lawyer.

  16. #4791
    If anyone has the idea of double dipping (one 485 each for EB2 and EB3), please be aware of the rules and consult with a good immigration attorney.
    Based on the information I have, one individual can have only one valid 485 at a time.

    Another reality which many folks are missing is the new requirement of interviews for every employment based 485 that was filed after March 2017.
    In my case I am in EB3 and filed my 485 / 765 / 131 four months back. No sign of EAD or AP till date. I consider myself very lucky as I received my H1B extension approved this month so the delay in EAD is not going to have an impact at this time.

    Also FYI, My FAD has also been current for the last 2 months. When I called USCIS, they said there is a 10 - 24 month estimated wait time for interviews to be scheduled and it also depends on work load at individual field offices. So the chances are - I will not get my GC this fiscal year in spite of a VISA number that is currently available. Since this VISA number is part of the annual allocated 140000, my number is certain to go wasted this fiscal, unless they are able to carry the unused visa numbers as spill over to EB2 India cases who had filed 485 before March 2017 (mostly in 2011-2012) and also do not require interview. So, for anyone in EB2 I with an EAD and a PD in 2009, please have patience and weigh your options before you port your category.

  17. #4792
    Quote Originally Posted by Ind2009 View Post
    When I called USCIS, they said there is a 10 - 24 month estimated wait time for interviews to be scheduled and it also depends on work load at individual field offices.
    I don't believe that bro. Expect to have your Interview scheduled and you will be greened this year. Pull all the usual levers..Congressman, Senator, Ombudsman etc..

  18. #4793
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    I don't believe that bro. Expect to have your Interview scheduled and you will be greened this year. Pull all the usual levers..Congressman, Senator, Ombudsman etc..
    Wish it was that simple. Already reached out to congressman's office last month and they were clear that, only if the case was outside the regular processing time posted in USCIS website then they can raise it up with USCIS.
    In this case since USCIS has already posted 24 month waiting time (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/) and the receipt date for inquiry was March 2017 then, we just have to wait.
    FYI, the receipt date for i-485 case inquiry as of this morning is April 07 2017.
    After all these years of waiting, patience is certainly one of the key trait most of us in this group have picked up. Lets not loose it.
    The support from this group has kept me strong for a very long time when I was just an observer until I started contributing in small bits more recently as my dates got closer.
    I will continue to seek and provide support to all my brothers and sisters who are in this long and challenging journey.
    So while we can always keep our hopes high and expect for miracles, we also need to be practical.
    If a miracle happens, then take it as a Bonus

  19. #4794
    Quote Originally Posted by Ind2009 View Post
    Wish it was that simple. Already reached out to congressman's office last month and they were clear that, only if the case was outside the regular processing time posted in USCIS website then they can raise it up with USCIS.
    In this case since USCIS has already posted 24 month waiting time (https://egov.uscis.gov/processing-times/) and the receipt date for inquiry was March 2017 then, we just have to wait.
    FYI, the receipt date for i-485 case inquiry as of this morning is April 07 2017.
    After all these years of waiting, patience is certainly one of the key trait most of us in this group have picked up. Lets not loose it.
    The support from this group has kept me strong for a very long time when I was just an observer until I started contributing in small bits more recently as my dates got closer.
    I will continue to seek and provide support to all my brothers and sisters who are in this long and challenging journey.
    So while we can always keep our hopes high and expect for miracles, we also need to be practical.
    If a miracle happens, then take it as a Bonus
    This is a good case for the Ombudsman. If people are deemed to be eligible for final action and the final action has to wait 12 - 24 months, it does not make any sense and will result in wastage of Visas. This can also be taken up by Congressman/Senator directly with the Heads of DHS/DOS (not just a case enquiry with the congressional desk at USCIS). You need to be able to make an appointment with COS and personally explain the situation.

    This should also be taken up by groups like IV et al, but all they are interested in is their own selfish interests and photo ops with politicians.

  20. #4795
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    This is a good case for the Ombudsman. If people are deemed to be eligible for final action and the final action has to wait 12 - 24 months, it does not make any sense and will result in wastage of Visas. This can also be taken up by Congressman/Senator directly with the Heads of DHS/DOS (not just a case enquiry with the congressional desk at USCIS). You need to be able to make an appointment with COS and personally explain the situation.

    This should also be taken up by groups like IV et al, but all they are interested in is their own selfish interests and photo ops with politicians.
    That will be challenging the process of personal interviews that was introduced as part of Presidents call for extreme vetting of all immigration cases.
    I know it causes hardships, but I am ready to wait in line when I have many other folks from our country who have priority date ahead of me and are also waiting for their turn.
    That being said, if there is a campaign to spill over these visas to our EB-2 friends who do not need an interview, I will gladly sign it.

  21. #4796
    Quote Originally Posted by Ind2009 View Post
    That will be challenging the process of personal interviews that was introduced as part of Presidents call for extreme vetting of all immigration cases.
    I know it causes hardships, but I am ready to wait in line when I have many other folks from our country who have priority date ahead of me and are also waiting for their turn.
    That being said, if there is a campaign to spill over these visas to our EB-2 friends who do not need an interview, I will gladly sign it.
    You don't have to sign any where. EB2I will end up receiving visas from EB3I and EB2ROW this FY. You see, USCIS and CO will never get the demand right. They either over-allocate or under-allocate and for good or for bad EB2I with pending 485s don't have an uneven advantage.

    Iatiam

  22. #4797
    Quote Originally Posted by Ind2009 View Post
    if there is a campaign to spill over these visas to our EB-2 friends who do not need an interview, I will gladly sign it.
    Nobody cares about your signature bro. To my knowledge, none of the 'campaigns' have had any effect so far.

  23. #4798
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    Nobody cares about your signature bro. To my knowledge, none of the 'campaigns' have had any effect so far.
    Bingo!!! Now you got it right. Nobody cares about our signatures or our voices or our escalations to ombudsman or congressmen or senators.
    Hence the reason for the need for patience and wait for our turn
    As i said earlier, the support from this group members has been the key factor in my endurance till date.
    Among immigration forums there are 2 channels I follow.
    While trackitt provides the much needed entertainment, Q's immigration Blog has been my key source to solid and useful information.
    As always I will keep looking forward to the guru's in this forum to keep the predictions based on calculations going.
    Wishing you good luck in your Hare Pathe ka intezaar and looking forward to see the status change to Hare Pathe ka Maalik

  24. #4799
    Quote Originally Posted by Ind2009 View Post
    Wishing you good luck in your Hare Pathe ka intezaar and looking forward to see the status change to Hare Pathe ka Maalik
    Thanks for your wishes bro. I have been Hara since 2016, Intezar khatam ho gaya. I have pushed the envelope quite a few times and I have to say sometimes it worked and did not have any negative consequences by the grace of god.

  25. #4800
    Yoda
    Join Date
    Jul 2011
    Location
    New Jersey
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    313
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    You don't have to sign any where. EB2I will end up receiving visas from EB3I and EB2ROW this FY. You see, USCIS and CO will never get the demand right. They either over-allocate or under-allocate and for good or for bad EB2I with pending 485s don't have an uneven advantage.

    Iatiam
    As shared earlier in the forum, EB3I numbers can't roll over to EB2I, EB3I numbers can get allocated to EB1.
    EB2I can get the spillover from EB1 or across from EB2ROW that are not used.

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