EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My company lawyer says I-140 amendment (EB3 downgrade) is not eligible for PP. I heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP with the receipt. Can anyone point me to any text/links/document that says I-140 PP is allowed with the receipt please ?

If you "heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP", you might as well get to the source of those stories bro. On this forum, All I have read is that EB3 Downgrade with PP is not possible. However, if you already have a EB3 Perm, then I don't see why you cannot do PP.

[Merlin2009]

If you "heard few stories of successful acceptance of PP", you might as well get to the source of those stories bro. On this forum, All I have read is that EB3 Downgrade with PP is not possible. However, if you already have a EB3 Perm, then I don't see why you cannot do PP.

I was able to downgrade to EB3 using EB2 PERM, filed I-140 and got it approved in premium processing. Both my EB2 and EB3 I-140s are filed in NSC. My attorney suggested that USCIS may or may not accept PP. But since, the only risk is losing attorney fee, I asked him to upgrade my I-140 to PP. Fortunately, it was accepted and approved. I think if your previous I-140 is filed at the same service center, there is a good chance that they may already have the original PERM on file.

[tendlya]

Does demand data include consular processing applications as well? What are the chances of demand increasing since last July inventory report for the months of April/May 2009? Sorry if it is basic question.

[Spectator]

Does demand data include consular processing applications as well? What are the chances of demand increasing since last July inventory report for the months of April/May 2009? Sorry if it is basic question.

I presume by "demand data" you mean the USCIS Inventory.

The USCIS Inventory only provides information on I-485 applications (and increasingly few of the total number these days).

Consular Processing is administered by DOS, so the USCIS report does not include them. DOS does report their numbers annually, but they are not shown at PD level. https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...tItem_2018.pdf

[tendlya]

Thanks Spec. Looks like DOS also reports Completed CP count per country per year as well. I don't see any huge number getting used by EB2 India CP for 2018. Am I reading it right?

https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...eVI-PartII.pdf

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...l-reports.html

[tendlya]

Do we know what percentage of annual 2800 country limit is used towards Consular Processing applications for India?

[drop2ocean]

I was able to downgrade to EB3 using EB2 PERM, filed I-140 and got it approved in premium processing. Both my EB2 and EB3 I-140s are filed in NSC. My attorney suggested that USCIS may or may not accept PP. But since, the only risk is losing attorney fee, I asked him to upgrade my I-140 to PP. Fortunately, it was accepted and approved. I think if your previous I-140 is filed at the same service center, there is a good chance that they may already have the original PERM on file.

Thanks Merlin, appreciate your response

[Spectator]

Do we know what percentage of annual 2800 country limit is used towards Consular Processing applications for India?

These are the % of CP visas of total approvals received for India (not necessarily 2,800) over recent years.

% CP ---- FY2018 --- FY2017 --- FY2016 --- FY2015 --- FY2014
EB1 ------- 1.7% ----- 0.9% ----- 1.3% ----- 1.4% ----- 0.7%
EB2 ------- 1.8% ----- 2.5% ----- 2.1% ----- 1.4% ----- 0.7%
EB3 ------ 12.2% ----- 3.1% ----- 3.4% ----- 2.2% ----- 6.7%
EB4 ------ 24.6% ---- 30.8% ---- 28.8% ---- 26.1% ---- 25.5%
EB5 ------ 67.4% ---- 63.8% ---- 60.4% ---- 64.0% ---- 57.3%

The increase in EB3 for FY2018 may reflect the FAD passing July 2007 for the first time, or it could just be that the FAD moved so far for EB3-I during the course of FY2018.

[tendlya]

Thanks Spec. Effect of Consular Processing on EB2I seems negligible.
Can last July pending inventory report be considered reliable? I am assuming this report would have considered information as of end of July 2018. But the approvals for EB2I were coming in until late August 2018. What percentage of inventory from Dec-2008 til March 2009 would have been cleared up in last fiscal year? So we are talking about 161 + 395 + 370 + 527.
Any guess?

Attachment 1446

[iatiam]

Thanks Spec. Effect of Consular Processing on EB2I seems negligible.
Can last July pending inventory report be considered reliable? I am assuming this report would have considered information as of end of July 2018. But the approvals for EB2I were coming in until late August 2018. What percentage of inventory from Dec-2008 til March 2009 would have been cleared up in last fiscal year? So we are talking about 161 + 395 + 370 + 527.
Any guess?

Attachment 1446

There are people in April 2009 who are getting greened. You can assume that inventory upto April first week has been mostly cleared. Like YT mentioned in his post some time ago, the new FD and FAD system is designed to reduce the chances of abrupt movements - advances and retrogression. For EB2I, it's going to be a slow and painful movement for the next three months, at least and then hopefully SO will kick in.

Iatiam

[tendlya]

There are people in April 2009 who are getting greened. You can assume that inventory upto April first week has been mostly cleared. Like YT mentioned in his post some time ago, the new FD and FAD system is designed to reduce the chances of abrupt movements - advances and retrogression. For EB2I, it's going to be a slow and painful movement for the next three months, at least and then hopefully SO will kick in.

Iatiam

Do you think bulk of this inventory up to April was cleared in current fiscal year or before Oct 2018? Trying to determine how far the dates can reach by end of current fiscal year even if we don't get any SO.

[iatiam]

Do you think bulk of this inventory up to April was cleared in current fiscal year or before Oct 2018? Trying to determine how far the dates can reach by end of current fiscal year even if we don't get any SO.

I think there are several things going on. Texas service center is exceptionally slow and may or may not have caught-up with the FAD. So the inventory may not have fully cleared for the FAD. Also, there will certainly be SO this year. Last month CO said that EB2ROW will remain current and if so, it will yield SO. While I don't wish it, if the interview requirements also might be causing some SO from EB3I to EB2I. Also, the two bumps in May and June 2009 (1400 cases each) are worth keeping an eye on. If the dates move past these, the progression might be smoother. At some point reverse porting will also kick in. Whether or not that will happen this FY or next is a big unknown and will have a significant impact on the forward movement.

The date movement predictions vary and with limited visibility and no data, veterans like Spec do not even try it. I wish and hope that the dates until October 2009 gets cleared.

Iatiam

[redsox2009]

I expedited my I-765 application with option of severe Financial Loss. Today I received an email from USCIS asking for documentation. I'm planning to submit Paystubs, Client Letter and Employment Letter. Let me know if I need to submit any other documents along with these.



Upon receipt of your request for expeditious handling, your case was reviewed and a determination was made that we need additional information to make a decision regarding your request. Please scan and e-mail documents supporting your expedite request to tscsrmtdoc@uscis.dhs.gov.

NOTE: Please include the receipt number and ATTN: XM1454 in the first position of the subject line of your e-mail.

The information must be received within 48 hours of the date of this notice. A decision in regards to expediting your request cannot be made until this documentation is received.

[iatiam]

I expedited my I-765 application with option of severe Financial Loss. Today I received an email from USCIS asking for documentation. I'm planning to submit Paystubs, Client Letter and Employment Letter. Let me know if I need to submit any other documents along with these.



Upon receipt of your request for expeditious handling, your case was reviewed and a determination was made that we need additional information to make a decision regarding your request. Please scan and e-mail documents supporting your expedite request to tscsrmtdoc@uscis.dhs.gov.

NOTE: Please include the receipt number and ATTN: XM1454 in the first position of the subject line of your e-mail.

The information must be received within 48 hours of the date of this notice. A decision in regards to expediting your request cannot be made until this documentation is received.

Add your mortgage statement as well if you own a house. If not, add the rental statement

[shekhar_kuruk]

I expedited my I-765 application with option of severe Financial Loss. Today I received an email from USCIS asking for documentation. I'm planning to submit Paystubs, Client Letter and Employment Letter. Let me know if I need to submit any other documents along with these.



Upon receipt of your request for expeditious handling, your case was reviewed and a determination was made that we need additional information to make a decision regarding your request. Please scan and e-mail documents supporting your expedite request to tscsrmtdoc@uscis.dhs.gov.

NOTE: Please include the receipt number and ATTN: XM1454 in the first position of the subject line of your e-mail.

The information must be received within 48 hours of the date of this notice. A decision in regards to expediting your request cannot be made until this documentation is received.

With the receipt, you are automatically getting 180 days extension, is that going to expire as well?

[Ind2009]

There are people in April 2009 who are getting greened. You can assume that inventory upto April first week has been mostly cleared. Like YT mentioned in his post some time ago, the new FD and FAD system is designed to reduce the chances of abrupt movements - advances and retrogression. For EB2I, it's going to be a slow and painful movement for the next three months, at least and then hopefully SO will kick in.

Iatiam

Are you referring to EB2 folks from April 2009 ?

[iatiam]

Are you referring to EB2 folks from April 2009 ?

Yes. Again, I am basing it in what I see in trackit

[excalibur123]

With the receipt, you are automatically getting 180 days extension, is that going to expire as well?

What is the 180 day rule? I thought it is only when you have filed your I-140?

I work for an another employer - different from one who filed GC for me long back. So if file I-765 through my GC employer, I cannot change my current employer for 180 days? That doesn't make sense to me as my current employer/job has no relation to my future job under GC.

[skpanda]

No Visa bulletin? any idea what's going on? Are they trying to see the demand? Surprising since USCIS did not honor the filing dates... so dont make any sense waiting..

[Raj0687]

FY19 - Q1 perm numbers are released, looks like demand is up by 3% when compared to last year, not sure how we get more SO this year than last year.

[Nov2010]

Just curious to know when was the last time bulletin was released towards the end of second week(middle) of the month.
I tried to go back and check mostly I've seen max of 12th.

[tenyearsgone]

What is the 180 day rule? I thought it is only when you have filed your I-140?

I work for an another employer - different from one who filed GC for me long back. So if file I-765 through my GC employer, I cannot change my current employer for 180 days? That doesn't make sense to me as my current employer/job has no relation to my future job under GC.

The 180-day rule referred to here is for AOS-based EAD extensions. If the extension has been filed for before the current EAD expires, then the applicant can continue to use the EAD for upto 180 days after it's expiration. It does not have any relation to who you work for or to the I-140.

[EB2/eb3]

Just curious to know when was the last time bulletin was released towards the end of second week(middle) of the month.
I tried to go back and check mostly I've seen max of 12th.

Yes, never seen it this late!

[rocketfast]

Anytime, you criticize USCIS (like the aila report), they will show how much more worse they could do, if they want

[EB32010]

Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2.
My prediction is that only 25% of total EB2 applicants will be successful in downgrading to EB3, remaining will end up waiting in EB2I queue for their GC.
So EB3I will always be ahead of the EB2I in next 5 to 10 years.

YT, I am revisiting this prediction of yours. Do you think it will still be just 25% only on the downgrades? If you look at trackitt, there are many many downgrades happening. I am expecting downgrading to spike up exponentially once it pass May 2010.