EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Have a question. I am a physician. My PD is May, 2011 in EB2 India. My employer has given a go ahead to downgrade to EB3 as long as I bear the cost of downgrading. My lawyer is willing to do downgrade also from EB2 to EB3.

Do you guys recommend filing for downgrade as early as possible or do I have the luxury of waiting for 6-7 months and then decide based on the PD movement in visa bulletin? Would you recommend concurrent filing in EB3 instead of downgrading? What is the time do you think approximately to reach the date of May, 2011 under EB3?

I am not a numbers guy and don't have the capability to crunch numbers and data as some of you do. So I would appreciate some input based on your calculations and predictions.

Thanks in advance.

If the modus operandi is to file a fresh EB3 PERM, then you might as well start immediately. However if it is a downgrade without a new PERM, then you can wait a few months to see the trend.

[EB32010]

You can call it whatever - I just go by common sense. I predict based on what i would do if I were in others shoes. If I were an EB2 from late 2009 onwards I would be thinking ALL the time EVERYDAY as to how I can downport and end this nightmare.

Just take a look at how relentless was porting from eb3 to eb2. EB2 was stuck in 2008 for 6 years - even when EB3s had EADs till Jul 2007.

At the end of the day we all are speculating. No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree

[Kumar2014]

You admins ... may I know why my post is not allowed... I asked an opinion on dates, why is it not posted? This happened in past and you are doing it again?

[gcconnect]

At the end of the day we all are speculating. No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree

I don't think most of the people in EB2I with EAD go for downgrade. Checked with some guys and they are thinking that high downgrade trend will be advantage for them and not sure this will result struck in the EB3I queue, which will end up even more trouble rather than waiting 2 to 3 years.

[EB2/eb3]

To what date in 2009 eb3 might retrogress to?

[AceMan]

At the end of the day we all are speculating. No one knows how exactly things will shape up. That been said, you said it’s common sense to end up at Dec 2009 this FY. But the numbers simply doesn’t match the hypothesis. EB3 is widely expected to get 6k this FY. And I don’t think there are 6k folks waiting for AOS in EB3 until Dec 2009. That’s why I said it will go beyond 2009 this FY. CO already mentioned EB3 ROW demand is light. If that trend continue, then EB3 might even get 8-10k. I will pleasantly surprised if that happens though.

Also you have mentioned that folks with EAD will also think of downgrade. I know many friends who are in this category and they don’t even think for a second to downgrade. And that makes sense for them for variety of reasons. Even if there are some who think to downgrade, it’s going to be less than 5%. I am absolutely positive about it.

I understand and respect your opinion. We will just agree to disagree

Philippines is not current yet, and they have the first right, followed by South Korea on EB3. I wish we get 10 K for this year, but will take anything more than 7K as a real positive. I am repeating downgraders are not going to impact EB3 in FY 2019. If we are getting numbers beyond that, the last quarter of FY 19 will see a push forward beyond May 2010.

While, I understand my friend Excalibur's view point, like you I have to disagree his view here purely based on the numbers. I know even he wishes his numbers to be wrong.

[AceMan]

---------------EB3 FAD----------------EB3 FD
2019 Sep-----1st May, 2010--------------XXXXXXX
2020 Sep-----1st Jan, 2012--------------XXXXXXX
2021 Sep-----1st Jan 2014--------------XXXXXXX
2022 Sep-----2015--------------XXXXXXX
2023 Sep-----2016--------------XXXXXXX

After 2022, I expect the forward movement of 1 year for every calendar year

[mcmilers]

@Aceman no such table to us EB2 guys? is it even possible to predict?

[excalibur123]

Philippines is not current yet, and they have the first right, followed by South Korea on EB3. I wish we get 10 K for this year, but will take anything more than 7K as a real positive. I am repeating downgraders are not going to impact EB3 in FY 2019. If we are getting numbers beyond that, the last quarter of FY 19 will see a push forward beyond May 2010.

While, I understand my friend Excalibur's view point, like you I have to disagree his view here purely based on the numbers. I know even he wishes his numbers to be wrong.

I wish I am wrong too ..

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.

[EB22010Dec]

I wish I am wrong too ..

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.

The only difference between then and now is - now if they port and apply for 485, they have to go to interview. Where as if they stay in the same queue, they will get GC eventually.

[AceMan]

@Aceman no such table to us EB2 guys? is it even possible to predict?

It is very simple. We have 14 K till May 2010 with EAD, almost every one will stay put here. If EB2 I gets 5000 a year till FY 2021 end, it can pass May 2010

[excalibur123]

The only difference between then and now is - now if they port and apply for 485, they have to go to interview. Where as if they stay in the same queue, they will get GC eventually.

Again small percentages still mean big numbers. Unless there is a scare from USCIS decisions.

Let's wait for next 3 VBs - even though they said EB3 FAD will move by 3 months each = 9 months, I would say it will move by only 7 months in total.

[EB2/eb3]

Again small percentages still mean big numbers. Unless there is a scare from USCIS decisions.

Let's wait for next 3 VBs - even though they said EB3 FAD will move by 3 months each = 9 months, I would say it will move by only 7 months in total.

Dec 1st 2009 is what you are thinking?

[AceMan]

I wish I am wrong too ..

But I studied the EB3->EB2 porting which happened from 2012-18 in great detail. I understand motivations of people who stare at long wait, and that even a small percentage means big numbers. Yes some of them would be willing to wait another 2 years, and some would be stuck due to lack of support from employers, but even a small percentage of downporters can mean big numbers.

I expect 8K EB3 = going to 4K EB3 2009 + 2K to carry over from FY 2018 + 2K going to EB2 2009 downporters

Another way to look at this is EB3 FD has stopped at Apr 2010 which implies the demand has been captured for this year. And this is without taking into account any downporting that would happen when FADs start crossing for each of the EB2s and they can do concurrent filing for downporting. CO cannot have a visibility on something like that. So the date is likely to end up much before Apr 2010.

The downporters before May 2010, you are calculating already had a prior EB3 petition. That's why, I don't see them as an impact. Post May 2010, your numbers will start showing up. Hence, I said May 2010 for FY 19.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The downporters before May 2010, you are calculating already had a prior EB3 petition. That's why, I don't see them as an impact. Post May 2010, your numbers will start showing up. Hence, I said May 2010 for FY 19.

Hopefully in just a few weeks, an Immigration Bill gets passed and that will change all the parameters of the predictions

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Hopefully in just a few weeks, an Immigration Bill gets passed and that will change all the parameters of the predictions

You have mentioned this a couple of times so I am interested in knowing what bill has a chance of passing? It looks like things have only gotten more contentious since the new Congress.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

You have mentioned this a couple of times so I am interested in knowing what bill has a chance of passing? It looks like things have only gotten more contentious since the new Congress.

I posted links in the Bills, Rules and Politics section..

[iatiam]

The only difference between then and now is - now if they port and apply for 485, they have to go to interview. Where as if they stay in the same queue, they will get GC eventually.

This is not true. Please stop spreading lies

[EB22010Dec]

This is not true. Please stop spreading lies

I apologize, my intention obviously is not to misguide people.
I have been told that by some of my friends who already have an EAD in EB2.

[qesehmk]

You admins ... may I know why my post is not allowed... I asked an opinion on dates, why is it not posted? This happened in past and you are doing it again?

Hello Kumar,

My apologies for the delay. This happens only for new users. In order to limit spam and bots, we require first few posts be manually approved. After a while your posts will appear instantaneously just like others.

[swaugh]

This is not true. Please stop spreading lies

That is pretty harsh. I believed the same as "EB22010Dec", if you think that is not true then please provide more evidence and share the correct information.

[bikenlalan]

A more detailed prediction from CO, http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-e...-january-2019/

As per CO, EB-2 WW should remain current through this FY. So, definitely some horizontal spillover for EB-2I.
EB-3 Philippines should progress aggressively but can be retrogressed later in the FY as demand rises.

[Kumar2014]

I have EB3 August 2010 date and has been with same employer till now, never ported. Now am in a situation where I am almost close to get an offer from a company I want to be in. New employer is not sure of when they start GC process and which category. HR didn’t know any immigration details to start with. How confident that we see Aug 2010 for FD this year. This is tough situation for me to make a decision.. waited long but things turned now for good or bad. I don’t want to be in EB2 kind fiasco (dates retrogressed like in past) if I continue same job or start new GC without knowing when and what... I appreciate if you can help in providing your visibility about EB3 FD and FAD expectation.. TIA

[Kumar2014]

Sorry about that ... I got it now and reposted my query for expert suggestions

Hello Kumar,

My apologies for the delay. This happens only for new users. In order to limit spam and bots, we require first few posts be manually approved. After a while your posts will appear instantaneously just like others.

[sanjeevtrivedi]

All of us are making speculations here with some assumptions. The key issue is for the people from EB2 to EB3 (India) is whether to downgrade or not and if yes, when.

-I think for people who already have EAD and are in upto May 2010 bucket, they have to be very careful - If they stay in line, its a 2 to 2.5 year wait. For people until Dec 2009, it could be a 1 to 1.5 year wait, so its individual opinion, how he views risk versus reward. Based on my discussions with several individuals, most of them are not doing or getting recommendation to not do

- The real test is for people from May 2010 onward, who want to jump the boat. Here it has to be a cautious approach. Between May 2010 and July 2010, will be the people who benefits the most. After that it should be wait and watch until FAD becomes current. Remember the CO has said that if lot of people jump, EB2 can have favorable date and also he doesn't see the dates for both the categories having significant date

I know a lot of people here are anxious, but take a calculated approach and adopt the wait and watch approach, especially after July 2010. Because any significant downgrade might clog the EB3 line and you don't want to jump back to EB2 again. CO is expecting a ton of them jumping the boat and this might create a favorable situation for EB2