EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[adisaraf]

Hi Gurus,

Any chances of seeing EB2-I FAD cross into July 2009 this fiscal year? Based on latest VB no real movement for EB2-I till May. My PD is June 25th 2009. I am a porter from EB-3 to EB-2 and I was lucky enough to get EAD/AP during 2015 fiasco. At the time my I-485 was filed in EB2-I category using my EB-3 PD in order to get EAD and AP. But now I am considering downgrading to EB-3. I have been with same employer for both of my petitions (EB-3 and EB-2). My attorney said they would need to fully amend the I-140 petition to downgrade. Thoughts?

[sanjeevtrivedi]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

Out of curiosity, how are you 18 years on H1B? Even if you filed your I-140 in 6th year. So still will be 12 years in waiting, which would translate 2007 that too EB2, which was current multiple times in past :-)

[abcx13]

Filing for 140 downgrade without being current, is really a bad idea.

Why? What is the harm if with the same company using the same PERM? Then you can file I485 using either EB2 or EB3 depending on whichever category becomes available first, no?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Out of curiosity, how are you 18 years on H1B? Even if you filed your I-140 in 6th year. So still will be 12 years in waiting, which would translate 2007 that too EB2, which was current multiple times in past :-)

Good question. Sometimes logic cannot comprehend or contradict ground realities.

[mcmilers]

Out of curiosity, how are you 18 years on H1B? Even if you filed your I-140 in 6th year. So still will be 12 years in waiting, which would translate 2007 that too EB2, which was current multiple times in past :-)

I am going on 18 years in this country and still waiting. Moved here in 2001 on F1, got H1 in Dec 2004 and EB-2 Priority date is Feb 2010. So yes it is possible.

Some people are just "Lucky"

[bloddy1]

Check-in/CO updates. And not sure what to make of it because its the same conversations this group continues to have and without any numbers now or at a later time, hard to gauge how sensitive is the EB3 I- FAD to SOFAD vis-a-vis downgrade? We all know its sensitive and Q/Spec/Ace have been saying all along to be cautious on downgrade, especially with the Final Action anticipated movement. There is a lot to play out, especially when EB3I-FAD moves significantly ahead (3 months+) of EB2I-FAD. Application dates/inventory build up does not seem to be a cause of concern or if its even worth discussing.

"With this update, Mr. Oppenheim explains a bit about the movement in the employment-based cases for India and China.

EB3 India Cutoff Date Passes EB2 India
Mr. Oppenheim explains that the main reason India’s cutoff date in the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category has passed that of its counterpart in the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category is that there has not been a great demand for EB3 from most other countries of chargeability. This is allowing more of the visa numbers to spillover to EB3 India.

This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India.

EB2 China to Remain Ahead of EB3 China, For Now
For many months, it was China, not India, that was experiencing the issue of EB2-to-EB3 downgrade cases. Now, however, EB2 China has returned to having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 China. Mr. Oppenheim expects this will not change in the near future. To the contrary, movement in the EB2 China category is expected to outpace that of EB3 China for at least the next several months."

[AceMan]

Why? What is the harm if with the same company using the same PERM? Then you can file I485 using either EB2 or EB3 depending on whichever category becomes available first, no?

EB2 is exceptional, Eb3 is skilled. When you downgrade to EB3 on the same PERM used for EB2, you are notifying USCIS that PERM is last being used for a skilled position.
You are killing your EB2 petition by filing for EB3 - 140 when dates are not even current. That would be the harm you are doing to yourself.

[AceMan]

Check-in/CO updates. And not sure what to make of it because its the same conversations this group continues to have and without any numbers now or at a later time, hard to gauge how sensitive is the EB3 I- FAD to SOFAD vis-a-vis downgrade? We all know its sensitive and Q/Spec/Ace have been saying all along to be cautious on downgrade, especially with the Final Action anticipated movement. There is a lot to play out, especially when EB3I-FAD moves significantly ahead (3 months+) of EB2I-FAD. Application dates/inventory build up does not seem to be a cause of concern or if its even worth discussing.

"With this update, Mr. Oppenheim explains a bit about the movement in the employment-based cases for India and China.

EB3 India Cutoff Date Passes EB2 India
Mr. Oppenheim explains that the main reason India’s cutoff date in the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category has passed that of its counterpart in the employment-based, second preference (EB2) category is that there has not been a great demand for EB3 from most other countries of chargeability. This is allowing more of the visa numbers to spillover to EB3 India.

This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India.

EB2 China to Remain Ahead of EB3 China, For Now
For many months, it was China, not India, that was experiencing the issue of EB2-to-EB3 downgrade cases. Now, however, EB2 China has returned to having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 China. Mr. Oppenheim expects this will not change in the near future. To the contrary, movement in the EB2 China category is expected to outpace that of EB3 China for at least the next several months."

About 2 years back when EB3-ROW was almost current, I was expecting more and more ROW to utilize EB3 route and easing EB2 and EB1 for ROW. This did not materialize most probably due to Trump effect during this time. Eb2-3 downgrade is not going to be a factor for this FY. This will start slowing up EB3 I only after about 3 months after Eb3 dates (filing or final whichever USCIS accepts). In the mean time if Philippines is current on Eb3, the downgrade demand would still be offset by much.
I am expecting Eb3 I to end this FY with a 1st May 2010. In the mean time, if the demand is very low, I am not discounting the possibility of CO might throw in a 9-12 month forward movement in July bulletin.

[EB32010]

About 2 years back when EB3-ROW was almost current, I was expecting more and more ROW to utilize EB3 route and easing EB2 and EB1 for ROW. This did not materialize most probably due to Trump effect during this time. Eb2-3 downgrade is not going to be a factor for this FY. This will start slowing up EB3 I only after about 3 months after Eb3 dates (filing or final whichever USCIS accepts). In the mean time if Philippines is current on Eb3, the downgrade demand would still be offset by much.
I am expecting Eb3 I to end this FY with a 1st May 2010. In the mean time, if the demand is very low, I am not discounting the possibility of CO might throw in a 9-12 month forward movement in July bulletin.

Even if CO moves 9 months in May, it won’t help this FY as there is very little time to get it approved for this FY

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I am going on 18 years in this country and still waiting. Moved here in 2001 on F1, got H1 in Dec 2004 and EB-2 Priority date is Feb 2010. So yes it is possible.

Some people are just "Lucky"

True that! Almost the same situation with me - moved here in Aug 2001 with a childhood wish to visit the Twin Towers during Winter Break :-(, moved to H1 in 2005 and been on that ever since after getting PD of May 2010. But hey I met a girl, married her, have two beautiful kiddos, made a lot of friends and money, so really nothing to complain. Honestly delayed applying for green card because we wanted to experience living in other countries and checked out/lived for a few weeks to few months over the years in Canada, UK, Australia, Chile, Singapore and decided nope I love the US more than anywhere else so here I am :-).

[bloddy1]

Even if CO moves 9 months in May, it wonÂ’t help this FY as there is very little time to get it approved for this FY

9 Months by May 19 is the best case interpretation i.e., EB3 at Jan 1 2010, some understood that as 3 months Total i.e., Aug 15 2009. Even Jan 1 2010 is what you are saying is a stretch to fulfill FY19 quota but there are 14K potential EB2 demand ready, adjudicated and can consume the supply.

EB3K+whatever SOFAD, total of 5K
EB2 with its 3K+1K=4K
-------------------------
Total: 9-10K

FY19, Lets say 5K downgrades do transpire, so we are at Jan1 2010 for EB3 and Sep/Oct 2009 for EB2 by end of FY'19.

FY20, If we get same SOFAD EB3 stays or moves by a month and leveling continues until end of FY20 with another 9-10K and end of FY20 both Eb2/3 are at Jan/Mar2010, respectively.

So in anticipation on FY 21, inventory buildup - Final Action for EB2/3 would be at Feb2010/June 2010 by June-Sep 2020. Since Application Filing Date is about 200 days ahead we would see Application Filing date hit June 2010 barrier not until Oct-Dec 2019 i.e., not until FY 2020 is available.

[EB32010]

9 Months by May 19 is the best case interpretation i.e., EB3 at Jan 1 2010, some understood that as 3 months Total i.e., Aug 15 2009. Even Jan 1 2010 is what you are saying is a stretch to fulfill FY19 quota but there are 14K potential EB2 demand ready, adjudicated and can consume the supply.

EB3K+whatever SOFAD, total of 5K
EB2 with its 3K+1K=4K
-------------------------
Total: 9-10K

FY19, Lets say 5K downgrades do transpire, so we are at Jan1 2010 for EB3 and Sep/Oct 2009 for EB2 by end of FY'19.

FY20, If we get same SOFAD EB3 stays or moves by a month and leveling continues until end of FY20 with another 9-10K and end of FY20 both Eb2/3 are at Jan/Mar2010, respectively.

So in anticipation on FY 21, inventory buildup - Final Action for EB2/3 would be at Feb2010/June 2010 by June-Sep 2020. Since Application Filing Date is about 200 days ahead we would see Application Filing date hit June 2010 barrier not until Oct-Dec 2019 i.e., not until FY 2020 is available.

Main point you are missing here SO will be applied only in July. And CO already mentioned that EB3 have low demand. So I expect a big push for EB3 FAD in July. How much remain to be seen

[AceMan]

9 Months by May 19 is the best case interpretation i.e., EB3 at Jan 1 2010, some understood that as 3 months Total i.e., Aug 15 2009. Even Jan 1 2010 is what you are saying is a stretch to fulfill FY19 quota but there are 14K potential EB2 demand ready, adjudicated and can consume the supply.

EB3K+whatever SOFAD, total of 5K
EB2 with its 3K+1K=4K
-------------------------
Total: 9-10K

FY19, Lets say 5K downgrades do transpire, so we are at Jan1 2010 for EB3 and Sep/Oct 2009 for EB2 by end of FY'19.

FY20, If we get same SOFAD EB3 stays or moves by a month and leveling continues until end of FY20 with another 9-10K and end of FY20 both Eb2/3 are at Jan/Mar2010, respectively.

So in anticipation on FY 21, inventory buildup - Final Action for EB2/3 would be at Feb2010/June 2010 by June-Sep 2020. Since Application Filing Date is about 200 days ahead we would see Application Filing date hit June 2010 barrier not until Oct-Dec 2019 i.e., not until FY 2020 is available.

When we look at the PERMS for 2009 and 2010 (recession years) the numbers are not really scary. Also we have to factor in the high number of H1's from 1999-2003 would have been mostly cleared by 2008. EB2 2009 already had cleared more than 4000 filers till May 2009. Almost every single number in EB2 inventory till May would be an EB3 upgrader. Also the people who are downgrading now to EB3 from EB2 already had a prior EB3 petition. Almost all the original EB2 filers till 1st May 2010, would have done AOS except for a few unlucky people.

The 5K downgrades for FY 19 is too far fetched in my opinion. I am repeating, downgraders will not have an impact on EB3 queue for FY 19. In fact it will start impacting only about 3 months after EB3 I priority dates move beyond May 2010.

EB3 I filing dates will move at least till April 2011 at the start of FY 2020 is my expectation. That means, during the first quarter of FY 2020, if we have enough demand for true Eb2 downgraders, then EB3 final dates may move forward slowly from Feb/March 2020 or if the demand is high, retrogression might happen.

[excalibur123]

True that! Almost the same situation with me - moved here in Aug 2001 with a childhood wish to visit the Twin Towers during Winter Break :-(, moved to H1 in 2005 and been on that ever since after getting PD of May 2010. But hey I met a girl, married her, have two beautiful kiddos, made a lot of friends and money, so really nothing to complain. Honestly delayed applying for green card because we wanted to experience living in other countries and checked out/lived for a few weeks to few months over the years in Canada, UK, Australia, Chile, Singapore and decided nope I love the US more than anywhere else so here I am :-).

You missed out on mainland Europe !

Also Chile - wow, what was that like ?

[EB32010]

When we look at the PERMS for 2009 and 2010 (recession years) the numbers are not really scary. Also we have to factor in the high number of H1's from 1999-2003 would have been mostly cleared by 2008. EB2 2009 already had cleared more than 4000 filers till May 2009. Almost every single number in EB2 inventory till May would be an EB3 upgrader. Also the people who are downgrading now to EB3 from EB2 already had a prior EB3 petition. Almost all the original EB2 filers till 1st May 2010, would have done AOS except for a few unlucky people.

The 5K downgrades for FY 19 is too far fetched in my opinion. I am repeating, downgraders will not have an impact on EB3 queue for FY 19. In fact it will start impacting only about 3 months after EB3 I priority dates move beyond May 2010.

EB3 I filing dates will move at least till April 2011 at the start of FY 2020 is my expectation. That means, during the first quarter of FY 2020, if we have enough demand for true Eb2 downgraders, then EB3 final dates may move forward slowly from Feb/March 2020 or if the demand is high, retrogression might happen.

Thank you Aceman. Can you please clarify why downgraders will not have an impact on FY 2019?

[imdeng]

I am going on 18 years in this country and still waiting. Moved here in 2001 on F1, got H1 in Dec 2004 and EB-2 Priority date is Feb 2010. So yes it is possible.

Some people are just "Lucky"

Wonder who among us has had the longest US tenure without GC. I am a June 2003 arrival and doesn't seem like that I am even in the running.

[AceMan]

Thank you Aceman. Can you please clarify why downgraders will not have an impact on FY 2019?

Simple reason, we are in the 2nd quarter of FY 2019 and EB3 dates are still behind 1st May 2009, which was last reached in 2009 for EB2. The filing dates moved only till April 2010, all the original EB2 filers till May 2010 would have got their EAD back in 2012 barring some unlucky few. USCIS not expected to respect filing dates anymore this FY.
The absolute best case , if the demand is low for July bulletin, they will open the filing dates again for July and it will take 3 months for the down porters to make an impact, which would be October 2019 (FY 2020) at the very earliest).
If the dates opened up in October 19 as I am hoping, then we will see the impacts from 2nd quarter of FY 20.

[EB2/eb3]

Aug' 1999.

Wow! I thought mine was the longest, June 2002..

[newyorker123]

I heard that people who applied in 2005-2006 got GC in 1-2 years. Not confirmed though. And here we are!

[Nov2010]

Aug' 00.
Was out of country for few years in between.

[iatiam]

Aug' 1999.

Jesus! That's two decades ago and Google was a startup looking for funding.

[zenmaster]

Wow ! 20 yrs ! thats a long long wait.
I was feeling low even with EB2 May 2009 date....
every year it feels like this would be the year to get GC...
the wait continues... guess it would be a 2020 dream for me

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

You missed out on mainland Europe !

Also Chile - wow, what was that like ?

Dude, Chile is the bomb! Most prosperous country in South America (per capita GDP of course, Brazil is huge in net GDP), great food, great people, advanced and stable government/economy, awesome beaches, natural beauty... I can keep going on. Definitely worth a vacation visit if you can do it. We are seriously thinking about it as a retirement destination.

[EB32010]

Simple reason, we are in the 2nd quarter of FY 2019 and EB3 dates are still behind 1st May 2009, which was last reached in 2009 for EB2. The filing dates moved only till April 2010, all the original EB2 filers till May 2010 would have got their EAD back in 2012 barring some unlucky few. USCIS not expected to respect filing dates anymore this FY.
The absolute best case , if the demand is low for July bulletin, they will open the filing dates again for July and it will take 3 months for the down porters to make an impact, which would be October 2019 (FY 2020) at the very earliest).
If the dates opened up in October 19 as I am hoping, then we will see the impacts from 2nd quarter of FY 20.

I understand that FAD haven’t reached May 2009. But DF have reached April 2010. I would think 75% of the folks who doesn’t have an EAD might have downgraded. How that translates into number, I don’t know

[sanjeevtrivedi]

"This transition no doubt will result in an increase in the number of EB2-to-EB3 “downgrade” cases from Indian-born applicants. If the increase is significant, this eventually could lead to EB2 India once again having a more favorable cutoff date than EB3 India."

All- Be careful with your downgrades, what CO is saying that if there are significant downgrade. EB2 will have favorable dates. He is kind of indicating something. As suggested earlier by someone unless the FAD becomes current, don't hurry up. You don't want to be in a situation where you upgraded first from EB3 to EB2, than downgrade EB2-EB3 and get trapped