EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[excalibur123]

Excalibur123 - thanks for your response.

Just curious how you got these numbers as EB3I folks in this period could not have filed for I-485 until recently.

You can estimate that by looking at EB2 Pending Inventory data of Jan 2009 - Apr 2009 which is exclusively made of EB3 porters. Then you assume what percentage of overall EB3 they could be given how much time & motivaton they had to port from last time when dates moved in 2012. Reverse calculate the overall numbers. Extrapolate that to overall year taking into account it was a recession year. Then account for demand destruction. Finally cross check your numbers by verifying against very old PIs and their ratios to PERMs. Apply those ratios to 2009 PERM data and use that to cross check.

Of course it would be simpler if they had correct PIs.

[Ind2009]

They usually take a honey moon period after VB is released and only then update. It should be coming any time now.

USCIS has finally updated the Adjustment of status filing charts from Visa Bulletin for next month.

Next Month's Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for February 2019.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Final Action Dates chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for February 2019.

[Ind2009]

So anyone in EB3-I having a PD between 22 Apr 2009 and 31st March 2010 have another 2 weeks to file I-485 if you have not yet done it.
The next opportunity for filing dates could be around Oct 2019, if they make it available.

[ferric]

Does the fact that they’re not accepting filing dates mean they have enough built up inventory till Apr 2010 in EB3?

[Ind2009]

Does the fact that theyÂ’re not accepting filing dates mean they have enough built up inventory till Apr 2010 in EB3?

The idea of filing dates is not to build inventory till a specific date (in this case 1st April 2010, which translates to 31 March 2010). On the other hand it is to build up up enough inventory and try not to waste any visa numbers available for the fiscal year which ends on Sep 30 each year.

Folks in EB2 I queue who have their PD till May 21st 2009 (most recent filing date in EB2 I) have a 90 % chance of being greened in the current fiscal year as they don't need to go through interview.

In contrast, this mandatory interview for adjustment of status will turn out to be the main challenge for the EB3 I category who have filed now and would become current (FAD) over the next few months. With the waiting time at most field offices across the country, for employment based categories, anywhere between 8 and 21 months, these folks might not be greened this fiscal year. If they spillover the Visa numbers to other categories that don't need to be interviewed then EB2 India can benefit. Hopefully DOS and USCIS can do some justice and not waste the available VISA numbers.

[EB2/eb3]

The idea of filing dates is not to build inventory till a specific date (in this case 1st April 2010, which translates to 31 March 2010). On the other hand it is to build up up enough inventory and try not to waste any visa numbers available for the fiscal year which ends on Sep 30 each year.

Folks in EB2 I queue who have their PD till May 21st 2009 (most recent filing date in EB2 I) have a 90 % chance of being greened in the current fiscal year as they don't need to go through interview.

In contrast, this mandatory interview for adjustment of status will turn out to be the main challenge for the EB3 I category who have filed now and would become current (FAD) over the next few months. With the waiting time at most field offices across the country, for employment based categories, anywhere between 8 and 21 months, these folks might not be greened this fiscal year. If they spillover the Visa numbers to other categories that don't need to be interviewed then EB2 India can benefit. Hopefully DOS and USCIS can do some justice and not waste the available VISA numbers.

With the govt shutdown, fbi Background checks are getting delayed, can we expect SO to eb2i because of this? Eb2i cases filed in 2012/2014 are pre-adjudicated and don’t need background checks, right?

[Ind2009]

With the govt shutdown, fbi Background checks are getting delayed, can we expect SO to eb2i because of this? Eb2i cases filed in 2012/2014 are pre-adjudicated and don’t need background checks, right?

I am not aware of the normal processing times for FBI background checks, but I know a friend of mine who did his finger printing on 8th of this month got a confirmation on Jan 10th that his Finger print review was in progress and another confirmation yesterday (Jan 17th) As of January 17, 2019, we completed our review of your fingerprints and are working on your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSCxxxxxxxxxx, at our National Benefits Center location. We will let you know if we make a decision or need anything from you.
We will need to check with other folks here who have already completed their bio metrics if this time line is normal or not.

I am also not aware of the rules regarding background check, if already complete. I do know that Mandatory in-person interviews are only mandatory for I-485 cases filed after Mar 06, 2017 and this policy came into effect as of Oct 2, 2017. USCIS can however ask for in-person interviews for cases filed before this date, if they believe they have a reason for additional scrutiny, which cannot be done using an RFE.

[EB2/eb3]

[QUOTE=Ind2009;61418]I am not aware of the normal processing times for FBI background checks, but I know a friend of mine who did his finger printing on 8th of this month got a confirmation on Jan 10th that his Finger print review was in progress and another confirmation yesterday (Jan 17th) As of January 17, 2019, we completed our review of your fingerprints and are working on your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSCxxxxxxxxxx, at our National Benefits Center location. We will let you know if we make a decision or need anything from you.
We will need to check with other folks here who have already completed their bio metrics if this time line is normal ]
I don’t think finger print review is same as background checks.

[Ind2009]

I don’t think finger print review is same as background checks.

Finger Print review is part of background check.
In addition they have a few more categories.
I got the information from this USCIS page

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/H...-Chapter2.html

[h1bh1bh1b]

I am not aware of the normal processing times for FBI background checks, but I know a friend of mine who did his finger printing on 8th of this month got a confirmation on Jan 10th that his Finger print review was in progress and another confirmation yesterday (Jan 17th) As of January 17, 2019, we completed our review of your fingerprints and are working on your Form I-485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, Receipt Number MSCxxxxxxxxxx, at our National Benefits Center location. We will let you know if we make a decision or need anything from you.
We will need to check with other folks here who have already completed their bio metrics if this time line is normal or not.

I am also not aware of the rules regarding background check, if already complete. I do know that Mandatory in-person interviews are only mandatory for I-485 cases filed after Mar 06, 2017 and this policy came into effect as of Oct 2, 2017. USCIS can however ask for in-person interviews for cases filed before this date, if they believe they have a reason for additional scrutiny, which cannot be done using an RFE.

NBC is slow in processing EAD. People who applied in July and august 2018, just started to receive theirs. Your friend will get EAD around June or July

[Ind2009]

NBC is slow in processing EAD. People who applied in July and august 2018, just started to receive theirs. Your friend will get EAD around June or July

Thank you and I Agree with you. We are aware that EAD (i-765) is taking 6 - 8 months at NBC.
My answer was specific to the question on delay in FBI background checks. I am not aware of the normal processing time for background checks. My finger printing was also done on Tuesday and I don't see any updates in the USCIS check case status. Still seeing Fingerprint Fee was received.

[EB2/eb3]

Finger Print review is part of background check.
In addition they have a few more categories.
I got the information from this USCIS page

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/H...-Chapter2.html

I’m not sure but from what I’ve seen in other forums, FP review is different to name check process(Background check)

[h1bh1bh1b]

I’m not sure but from what I’ve seen in other forums, FP review is different to name check process(Background check)

//Once an ASC collects an applicant’s biometrics, USCIS submits the records to the FBI for a full criminal background check. [7] The response from the FBI that a full criminal background check has been completed includes confirmation that://

Not sure if FBI is affected by shutdown and understaffed.

[infotalk]

The idea of filing dates is not to build inventory till a specific date (in this case 1st April 2010, which translates to 31 March 2010). On the other hand it is to build up up enough inventory and try not to waste any visa numbers available for the fiscal year which ends on Sep 30 each year.

Folks in EB2 I queue who have their PD till May 21st 2009 (most recent filing date in EB2 I) have a 90 % chance of being greened in the current fiscal year as they don't need to go through interview.

In contrast, this mandatory interview for adjustment of status will turn out to be the main challenge for the EB3 I category who have filed now and would become current (FAD) over the next few months. With the waiting time at most field offices across the country, for employment based categories, anywhere between 8 and 21 months, these folks might not be greened this fiscal year. If they spillover the Visa numbers to other categories that don't need to be interviewed then EB2 India can benefit. Hopefully DOS and USCIS can do some justice and not waste the available VISA numbers.

Where do you get this date of 21st May 2009 from. I am EB2, May 30 2009. Does that mean I have to go through an interview for GC ?

[Ind2009]

Where do you get this date of 21st May 2009 from. I am EB2, May 30 2009. Does that mean I have to go through an interview for GC ?

The dates that you see in the Visa bulletin each month are cut off dates, and cannot be used as current. You should always do a minus one. In case of EB2 I the most recent filing date has been 22nd May 2009. so anyone having priority dates as of 21st May are eligible to file adjustment of status till the end of this month and that is the date upto which CO was expecting the FAD to move by end of this fiscal year. This information is based on the following input from CO, back in September of 2018.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/09/21/oc...dia-and-china/
Cutoff Dates in DF Chart to Predict Future Movement
One additional insight provided by Mr. Oppenheim is how he determines what date to list on the DF chart, which typically has more favorable cutoff dates than the FA chart. The dates Mr. Oppenheim sets in the DF chart are where he expects that category’s FA cutoff date to be within the next 8-to-12 months.

If you had applied for adjustment of status before Mar 6th 2017, then there is no mandatory in-person interview for you. Also given that your PD is May 30 2009, in EB2 I, there is also a good chance that you might get your number called before end of this fiscal year.

[ferric]

Can anyone comment on whether the ending of the EB-5 program will add spillover to EB1, then EB2?

[Nov2010]

Anyone can provide insight into how the current shutdown would impact the SO and FAD / DF movement? Let's say if this continues for another 30 days.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Any advice on what to do for EB2I PD of May 10, 2010? Just hang tight until FAD reaches that or do all the shenanigans of down porting when the EB3 Filing Date crosses that? No issues with the job as such and going on year 12 now so stability is not a concern. Another couple of years and my wife can apply in EB1A or B. Thanks!

[shekhar_kuruk]

Any advice on what to do for EB2I PD of May 10, 2010? Just hang tight until FAD reaches that or do all the shenanigans of down porting when the EB3 Filing Date crosses that? No issues with the job as such and going on year 12 now so stability is not a concern. Another couple of years and my wife can apply in EB1A or B. Thanks!

My 2 cents, start the downgrading process NOW. If you do, you may be greened by the end of the year. Good luck.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

My 2 cents, start the downgrading process NOW. If you do, you may be greened by the end of the year. Good luck.

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

[shekhar_kuruk]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

I think if you are still with the same company which filed your perm & I-140, all you need is tell them to file new I-140 in EB3 and I think you can also do premium processing on the I-140. So in short talk to your attorney and I think you could be set pretty soon to file I-485 in a couple of months.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

I think if you are still with the same company which filed your perm & I-140, all you need is tell them to file new I-140 in EB3 and I think you can also do premium processing on the I-140. So in short talk to your attorney and I think you could be set pretty soon to file I-485 in a couple of months.

Thanks for the info! From what I have read, I-140 cannot be filed in premium and only in regular, since the labor certification is not a new one. According to one source (Anil Gupta), one can apply for the EB3 I-140 downgrade in premium if it is with the same company and applied with the same Service Center. That's a new one and I have not had a chance to get any corroborating sources for.

After talking to my attorney, I will post some feedback from her for everyone's benefit as she is a damn good attorney/personal friend and always looks out for me :-). For now, it looks like I should just wait for EB3 FAD to cross my PD and if it does, apply I-140/I-485 concurrently.

[gcconnect]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

This may help you
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/how-h...proval-webber/

[AceMan]

Thank you for the input, Shekhar. Is it possible to apply for concurrent I-140/I-485 in EB3 if either the FD or FAD crosses my PD, or do I have to do labor certification first and then file I-140/I-485? There are so many threads littered all over with varying opinions so not really sure. I have an appointment with my attorney later this week and get her input which is what I usually end up following. Not too hung up over the whole green card as such and rather prefer renewing my H1 every 3 yrs as it barely takes a week but getting old now and it's more than 18 yrs since I moved here so thinking it's time to look seriously at options :-).

Your dates are out of range for both Eb2 and 3 now. I don’t think filing dates are going to be accepted for this FY. Your best bet would be with the Eb3 movements over the next 6 months, prepare the ground work for an Eb3 downgrade, and most probably your dates will be accepted for filing from October 19(Fy 20). If your dates are current then apply concurrently for 140 and 485 premium in October. I know premium is not accepted for 140 without original perm, but there has been people reporting otherwise.

Filing for 140 downgrade without being current, is really a bad idea.

[Turbulent_Dragonfly]

Your dates are out of range for both Eb2 and 3 now. I don’t think filing dates are going to be accepted for this FY. Your best bet would be with the Eb3 movements over the next 6 months, prepare the ground work for an Eb3 downgrade, and most probably your dates will be accepted for filing from October 19(Fy 20). If your dates are current then apply concurrently for 140 and 485 premium in October. I know premium is not accepted for 140 without original perm, but there has been people reporting otherwise.

Filing for 140 downgrade without being current, is really a bad idea.

Sound advice. Thank you, AceMan!