EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[excalibur123]

Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.

Is there a way we can bet on this ?

my take, EB3I dates wont cross 2010 for another 2 years. You are underestimating both EB3 demand and the resolve & means of EB2 folks to downport.

[EB2/eb3]

Why 8 VBs shouldn't it be approx. 6 VBs for May30?

My PD is July 29th, so for me I am assuming 12-13 VBs. Is this a correct esitimate ?

The predictions are only till May, after may we can expect some SO

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Is there a way we can bet on this ?

my take, EB3I dates wont cross 2010 for another 2 years. You are underestimating both EB3 demand and the resolve & means of EB2 folks to downport.

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

[Moveon]

My PD is Dec 2009 and I had responded to my RFE in September 2018 i.e my medicals + the supplement J . I understand that they passed an order that Medical reports would be Valid for 2 years instead of one year from Nov of 2018. I wanted to know if the medical I filed in September 2018 would be valid until Sept of 2019 or Sept of 2020 ?

[gcwait]

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

I wish calculations were so easy. I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years.

[iatiam]

I wish calculations were so easy. I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years.

Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

[gcwait]

Well said. With due respect to YT, he is totally not understanding the level to which people would go to get a green card. We have used and abused the system like anything. Pre-adjucated 485s, fake resumes, fake MNC managers and fake organization charts. Do you think we would hesitate to down port.

Reality is that EB3 has not been consistently ahead of EB2 and it takes time to do all the paperwork. When the time comes, people would down port. There will be a weird situation with EB2 and EB3 swinging back and forth in one year's time.

Iatiam

One only needs right knowledge and determination to make it happen. It is very easy as compared to EB3-Eb2 upward porting. We are legally allowed to pay for both I140 petition and I485 application. Once we offered to pay for both, company couldn't do much to deny it.

[vsivarama]

I wish calculations were so easy. I totally agree that there will be a sudden brake once date hits May 2010. BTW, after some push I've been able to file EB2-Eb3 downgrade last month. I've never filed I485 before. There are about 25 people in my company who have filed downgrade with me. Don't underestimate the will power of people hungry from last 10 years.

My questions would be the following:
i) Why would we need to fight it out for downgrading? Shouldn't it be easier?
ii) Haven't the Chinese been downgrading consistently for a while, because of which their EB2/EB3 dates are close enough (going by their EB2/EB3 numbers, the EB3 folks should have been way ahead, but are being pulled back because of downgrades.). Plus compared to India their wait is not bad at all but they still downgrade. I do not see why there will be a resistance among Indians to downgrade.

[gcwait]

My questions would be the following:
i) Why would we need to fight it out for downgrading? Shouldn't it be easier?
ii) Haven't the Chinese been downgrading consistently for a while, because of which their EB2/EB3 dates are close enough (going by their EB2/EB3 numbers, the EB3 folks should have been way ahead, but are being pulled back because of downgrades.). Plus compared to India their wait is not bad at all but they still downgrade. I do not see why there will be a resistance among Indians to downgrade.

i) I really wish it could be easier but we all know the reasons.
ii) I don't think there is any resistance among Indians to downgrade. People who have already filed I485 won't do it because of the reasons already discussed in the forum. Whoever has not filed it yet will try with their maximum capacity to do it. Hence the downgrade rate will increase substantially once date hits May 2010. If their companies won't allow it, they will change ships and start from scratch. Eb2 dates will take a while to catch up.

[excalibur123]

Per VB Guidance, EB3I will move at the pace of 3 months per VB. So, using that guidance, we have almost 7 months to go in this FY. That would mean the PD will move to 2011 in this FY itself. Using the same guidance, we only need 4 months in the Next FY to move PD into 2012.

No dear - the VB is predicting till only May. You cannot use that literally and also for future. As I mentioned in other posts, 2009 is exceptional. You can go through that analysis.

So Apr 2009 plus 9 months for 3 VBs till May = Jan 2010.

[excalibur123]

gcwait - That’s amazing. Just to get an idea are the 25 people with you with or without EADs?

[bloddy1]

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

No dear - the VB is predicting till only May. You cannot use that literally and also for future. As I mentioned in other posts, 2009 is exceptional. You can go through that analysis.

So Apr 2009 plus 9 months for 3 VBs till May = Jan 2010.

This is just 'prediction' right? we are all shooting air bro. Realistically, the only movement that matters for EB3I at this time is upto April VB if they are to have any chance of approval in this FY, any Date movement past April VB is just for the purpose of generating demand for the next FY.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I’m awaiting Application filing date movement for i485 filing with a pd June 2010 EB2-I. The company was recently acquired another and went through name change. They are filing an amendment, my question is can I file amendment along with EB3 downgrade and concurrent 485 at the same time?

Ask your attorney bro. You can post what you learned on this forum from your attorney.

[gcwait]

This is just 'prediction' right? we are all shooting air bro. Realistically, the only movement that matters for EB3I at this time is upto April VB if they are to have any chance of approval in this FY, any Date movement past April VB is just for the purpose of generating demand for the next FY.

I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

[gcwait]

gcwait - That’s amazing. Just to get an idea are the 25 people with you with or without EADs?

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

[EB22010Dec]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

GCWait - thank you for the answer, just a follow up quesiton. What are the groups priority dates ?
I am contemplating downgrade myself as I changed jobs recently and I am starting over, but not sure if I should do it.

[gcwait]

GCWait - thank you for the answer, just a follow up quesiton. What are the groups priority dates ?
I am contemplating downgrade myself as I changed jobs recently and I am starting over, but not sure if I should do it.

Nov 2009 through Jan 2010. If your PD is in Dec 2010 as your user handle suggests, then I would recommend to wait and see how it pans out once date crosses May 2010. Anyone who is eligible to do it now, should do it immediately. Remember early filers will get the maximum benefit.

[EB32010]

I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

This is simply not true. There is no way EB3 DF will stay at April 2010 until Oct 19. Whether USCIS will honor DF is a separate question.

[EB32010]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

Did you all tried to do PP?

[EB22010Dec]

Nov 2009 through Jan 2010. If your PD is in Dec 2010 as your user handle suggests, then I would recommend to wait and see how it pans out once date crosses May 2010. Anyone who is eligible to do it now, should do it immediately. Remember early filers will get the maximum benefit.

Thank you and appreciate the advice.

[EB22010Dec]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

Just to add to this ... NONE of the friends I know who already has an EAD are even thinking about porting over to EB3 and restarting the process..
When I suggested it to some people, they just laughed it off ... I believe 20 - 25% max will port down and those are people mostly with out EAD + AP.

Also, the new requirement of going to interview will be a deterrent to many people who already has an EAD.
GC is important to people, but staying in US Of A is even more improtant, if there are easier ways to do it, they will.

I think the true date movement for EB3 after May 2010 will be simple equation -

( Eb2 + Eb3 demand ) - 7k( EB3 quota + spillover ) a year and the progress of FD and FAD depends on that equation.

Does any one have stats regarding that demand ? How may people are waiting for AOS in each year ? 2010, 2011, 2012, etc.

[gcconnect]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

gcwait - is there any specific reason not using old EB3, when that is straight AOS filing. i am also in the same situation and planning to ask my company when my date is eligible for filing .

[EB2/eb3]

None of us had filed AoS before. We have been with the same company for 10 plus years. Company had filed in EB3 originally even though most of us were eligible for EB2 at that time. We later got our company to upgrade it to EB2 and have been waiting for EB2 dates to become current since then. Now when we got this opportunity to file in EB3, we grouped together and pushed the company to downgrade. They didn't let us use our old EB3 petitions though.

So did u file new 140 concurrently? If so, did u receive bio metrics notifications?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I don't think it is correct. The prediction provided in the VB is for FAD. They have already built the pipeline by moving FD in last few bulletins. So, the FAD movement beyond April VB will not be for mere demand generation. They can build the pipeline for next FY by moving the FD in the beginning of next FY.

So, are you saying EB3I folks who become current in May VB will get their GC's in this FY? I know from last year a few friends who filed in May, got their Cards only AFTER October. Also remember, USCIS has been known to only honor the Filing Date erratically. The filing date has become nothing more than a placeholder.