Have the exact same question. If it does move 3 months to July 2010 for EB3, surely the EB2 downgrades will start (No one after May 2010 in EB2 has ever filed I485). What happens then ?Originally Posted by EB22010Dec
Have the exact same question. If it does move 3 months to July 2010 for EB3, surely the EB2 downgrades will start (No one after May 2010 in EB2 has ever filed I485). What happens then ?
Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2.
My prediction is that only 25% of total EB2 applicants will be successful in downgrading to EB3, remaining will end up waiting in EB2I queue for their GC.
So EB3I will always be ahead of the EB2I in next 5 to 10 years.
WOW. This sounds as iconic as your chart projection a few years ago. You are the man bro! I would love to see another projection chart of yours. Can you create one more?
Sorry. In my opinion EB3I queue is almost an empty queue and for EB2I queue there is not enough data available to project any such chart.
Please don't expect any chart from me for next 2 years.
EB2 Projection please YTEleven. PD 30 May 2009
Empty queue ?? I believe EB3 still has enough numbers every year to fill its mandated quota of 2800 and then some more.
Yes It is an empty queue for me. Don't take it literal meaning of EMPTY. It does SPARSELY filled with some applicants but for me its a empty queue when I compare it with EB2I which has densely populated with 200K+ applicants. Also if you see the Eb3I movement for last 10 months: the first time USCIS started taking the POST July'07 applications were in APR. 2018 and in 10 months they moved the dates to APR'10. That's an average 3 months of movement for every VB and they are projecting same 3 months movement for every VB in near future. That shows how much sparsely filled queue it is.
We have an Average of 6K+ supply of VISAS in EB3I since FY15 and we don't have that much demand in EB3I with POST Jul'07 PDs. This emptiness is moving the PDs for the EB3I queue faster at the rate of 3Months / VB. This 3 month movement will continue if NO one from EB2I is ready to downgrade and consume the 6K+ supply of EB3 visas.
YTeleven, In post-2010May - 2011 end, there are almost 20-30 K (multiplied by 2 for dependents??) EB2 folks who have never seen EAD.
As you mentioned, if even 25% of them downgrade, thats way more than 10K. Won't this significantly slow down EB3I ? But probably we will see 2011 dates for EB3 this year.
My PD is in early 2012, so probably all this is useless to me
Ok. Let me cut this up for us. Out of 200K EB2I and per your projection 25% downgrades = 50K and divide that by Average of 6K+ supply, that would mean it takes 9 yrs to clear the downgrades alone!
But let us hold our horses for just a week more..we could have the incredible good news of removal of Per Country Quota. Let us start projecting(or re-visit the projections) based on that!!
Hey guys,
What does the last line from the excerpt from Feb 2019 visa bulletin mean. Can anyone help me understand?
"The above final action date projections for the Family and Employment categories indicate what is likely to happen on a monthly basis through May. The determination of the actual monthly final action dates is subject to fluctuations in applicant demand and a number of other variables. It is also important to remember that by no means has every applicant with a priority date earlier than a prevailing final action date been processed for final visa action, with applicants often processing at their own initiative and convenience."
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PD -4/3/2009 | I-485 Filing Date - 4/17/2012 | Receipt Date:4/25/2012 | Date current since : Feb 2019 | Card Being Produced: 5/2/2019
YTeleven, can you pls elaborate on - "Originally I thought downgrading is easier than upgrading but I changed my mind now, its tougher than upgrading to EB2."
First off folks who have an EAD in EB2 have lesser motivation. A combination of EAD and AP is like a mini GC.
Second, those with EADs who have changed jobs, it means starting the process all over again with a new Perm. This is not only costly but will involve uncertainty of RFEs, denials and headache of I-485 interview, which they wonÂ’t have if they just wait it out.
Third set is people with no EADs. Here, I can tell you from personal experience that companies and their lawyers do not support it, and have all sorts of arguments against it. I was just able to get mine filed concurrently with a new I140 but had to fight such a hard and long drawn battle within the company that I have burnt a lot of bridges and everyday has become a survival challenge for me. Besides, I am learning now that if I-140 is filed concurrently, it can take way longer, and remember premium processing is not available for this. So, to avail AC21 provisions, not only you have to wait it out for 180 days, for all practical reasons, you have to wait for the I-140 approval too, which can be way longer.
And, oh BTW, even if you have an EB3 I-140 from before and had ported up, chances are they will not let you use it. So, all in all, it is very very hard.
YTeleven, In post-2010May - 2011 end, there are almost 20-30 K (multiplied by 2 for dependents??) EB2 folks who have never seen EAD.
As you mentioned, if even 25% of them downgrade, thats way more than 10K. Won't this significantly slow down EB3I ? But probably we will see 2011 dates for EB3 this year.
My PD is in early 2012, so probably all this is useless to me
2009 was an exceptional year because it had to bear most of the impact of Recession and filings were significantly down. Even the Pending inventory of 2009 is not a good reflection because it is a mix of Before and After May 2009. (Before May all EB2s got GCs and what you see now in PI is the EB3 porters). So the true number of EB2 in 2009 was around 15K, not 12K that you see in PI. The numbers of EB2 from 2010 onwards are massive (25-35K each year).
Downporting may be hard but even if 25% EB2 port, they can easily use all EB3 quota including spillovers. And give enough time to people, they will arrange for downporting somehow and then this percentage would go up.
So I dont see EB3 moving past 2009 this year. I would be surprised if CO moves the filing date past Apr 2010 or USCIS honors them. They havent moved the EB3 filing date in latest bulletin, so I think the demand is already captured for EB3.
Anyone here after mid 2010 priority date is in for a very long haul - unless the law changes or significant spillovers are gotten.
> I would be surprised if CO moves the filing date past Apr 2010 or USCIS honors them. They havent moved the EB3 filing date in latest bulletin, so I think the demand is already captured for EB3.
They did mention that it will move up to 3 months in next bulletin, hence all this discussion.
Due to various challenges in filing a new I-140 under EB3-I by EB2-I folks who have PD in 2010/2011 (and beyond), can we explore interfiling option to file 1-485 when EB3-I DF becomes current, this is instead of downgrading from EB2-I to EB3-I using the same PERM and file a new I-140. IMO - Though our EB2 based I-140 might be Invalidated with this approach, but still this seems to be an alternate path for us to get EAD/AP earlier than continue to wait in EB2-I queue forever.
Guru’s – Can you share your thoughts and suggest us whether the interfiling option is feasible and that can be leveraged by those who are willing to take some risk.
Well the final dates have moved to Apr 2009 for EB3, not Apr 2010. Apr 2010 is only for demand capture and that's also done now.
The porting from EB3 to EB2 had been very persistent, that's why it took EB2 6 years to truly go past 2008. So no surprise very little EB3 applicants were found till 2008 as 6 years worth of numbers were taken away by EB3s of many different years. Even Jan-Apr 2009 PI for EB2 is holding no one but EB3 porters who applied in Aug-Oct 2014. So again no surprise there are only a few EB3 applicants till Apr 2009.
EB3 would reach end of 2009 this FY but thats about it, regardless of what bulletin is saying. It might go into 2010 but would retrogress as downporters from mid-late 2009 start having their impact.
Also the right way to look at numbers from 2010 is to treat EB2+EB3 as a pool - so about 10K visas total. In my guess starting Jan 2010, EB2 downporters would take about 8K of these leaving 2K to original EB3s. This would make EB3 crawl much like EB2 crawled before. EB3 would move about 3 months per year, with EB2 about a few months behind it.
I believe they are referring to final action dates, not filing dates.
Excellent post. I couldn't explain better than this why I thought downgrade is tougher than upgrade.
I'm expecting more such posts on first hand experiences in downgrade to EB3I so that we can predict an accurate percentage of downgrades can happen in future.
As of now I'm predicting it as 25%.
May be Spec & Q add their thoughts on this statement.
How I interpreted is that the USCIS/DOS can move the FAD dates forward even there is some inactive applicants in the demand and whose final action is not started for some reason.
They simply ignore that demand and move the FADs. If this is correct then this approach may retrogress the FADs in the last month if that inactive demand becomes active and demands a visa.
Downporting percentages, my take
May 2009 PDs - 5%
June - Aug 2009 PDs - 25%
Sep - Dec 2009 PDs - 35%
Jan - Apr 2010 PDs - 50%
May 2010 onwards - 60%
Given time and motivation people would FIND A WAY.
Excellent analysis! I totally agree that eb3 fad will not go beyond 2009 in fy2019.
Continuing my previous predictions by mid of next year EB3I dates will move to 2012.YTeleven, In post-2010May - 2011 end, there are almost 20-30 K (multiplied by 2 for dependents??) EB2 folks who have never seen EAD.
As you mentioned, if even 25% of them downgrade, thats way more than 10K. Won't this significantly slow down EB3I ? But probably we will see 2011 dates for EB3 this year.
My PD is in early 2012, so probably all this is useless to me
You no need my help here. You can predict this date for yourself.
Find the number of applicants before your PD and divide that number by the visa supply. You can safely assume 4k supply of Eb2India Visas in FY19 & FY20.
More over the FEB VB already gave the guidance of the VB movement(1week/VB), based on that guidance it may take 8 VBs to get to your date.
Why 8 VBs shouldn't it be approx. 6 VBs for May30?
My PD is July 29th, so for me I am assuming 12-13 VBs. Is this a correct esitimate ?
Per VB Guidance, it should take 6 months for you to be current and get your card. But my prediction is that there will be some SO in EB2 this year and you will get it earlier than 6 months if you have already filed AOS. I will even go as far as saying that EB2I may even steal more EB3 Visas like it has been happening for the past few years. So, I see the EB2I FAD hitting October 09.
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