EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB22010Dec]

I might agree with AceMan if the recession keyword lives in the news through out the FY19.

Aceman/YTeleven - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

[YTeleven]

I've put a breakdown of the DOS Visa Statistics here.

Thanks Spec for the data.
Only comment I would like to make is Philippines may not get 7,059 visas in FY19 as their backlogs got depleted and they are approaching to the current in EB3.
That will be a good opportunity for EB3India to get more than what they got in FY18.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I have a question outside the topic of this thread and admin can delete this or move this once I have gotten a reply but I feel this is the place which can give me the correct answer as many of the old timers were once on pending AOS status and had EAD/AP themselves.

My question is: What happens to I-94 when we move to pending AOS? Unless I leave the country and re-enter using the AP, what happens to the I-94?

[ak7419]

Pretty disappointed that EB2I Sep 2009 keeps getting pushed to next fiscal year. Started hoping in 2014 then 2016 then 2017 then 2018 then 2019 now 2020.

[AceMan]

No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0972#post60972

True.
Also from FY 19, the true down graders from EB2 will come into play, once the EB3 dates move past May 2010. Currently we have very limited people who are on the fence waiting for what happens with other people who are porting.

[ferric]

EB2 PD dec 2009, no EAD or 485 filed ever - should I downgrade ASAP or wait for concurrent 140/485 so that I can get EAD if PD becomes current in the coming months final action date?

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks much anyways, and for everything over the years.

Nishant - I no longer do calculations. Sorry. I will let others answer this question.

[mjaggu]

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

[YTeleven]

Thanks YT... your predictions have been very accurate over the last few years. Great job!

Any reason why only 6K+ for EB3-I? I was under the impression that there is very less demand in EB3ROW and there is substantial spillover available for EB3-I.

Is there any numbers that is prompting you to reach this conclusion?

Thanks SK.
All I would think is the Philippines backlogs in EB3 Category. Which consumes the major portion of the EB3 quota.
Unless its get cleared off we can't expect much SO to EB3 India.
In last 5 years Philippines got cleared 10 years of backlogs and on the edge of becoming current..
Hopefully we will see from this year onwards its the India's turn to consume more Visas than Philippines in EB3 category and move faster than EB2india.

[swordfish380]

They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).

They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.

Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.

a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.

b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.

The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.

Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708

You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.

Thank you Spec and Q.


This means inventory report is just of nonuse for prediction.

[skpanda]

Thanks SK.
All I would think is the Philippines backlogs in EB3 Category. Which consumes the major portion of the EB3 quota.
Unless its get cleared off we can't expect much SO to EB3 India.
In last 5 years Philippines got cleared 10 years of backlogs and on the edge of becoming current..
Hopefully we will see from this year onwards its the India's turn to consume more Visas than Philippines in EB3 category and move faster than EB2india.

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

[EB22010Dec]

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

Hello SK - My PD is Dec 2010 as well, I am very less optimistic of dates moving beyond that date in the next 2 - 3 years. Why do you think it would be the case?

[YTeleven]

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.
You might get another opportunity in less than an year but you should not miss the first chance in immigration.

[YTeleven]

Gurus
I am new to this forum.
PD - March 2010 EB2I (upgraded from EB3I from a different employer).
Never filed AOS before.
Can someone recommend if I should downgrade and do concurrent filing this month or should I stay put?
I have been naive about the numbers and the SO process until the filing date became current and now am trying to understand the process and figure out what I should do.

Don't wait for FAD. Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.

[YTeleven]

Thanks... my PD is Dec 2010 EB2I. I am watching EB3I closely so I can downgrade in next few months. It's been a crazy ride with 14 years in the country and not even an EAD to show for it.

I know you missed the AOS filing during 2015 fiasco. probably it was happened for a reason.. now you are in a better position to downgrade and get the GC faster. good luck to you for this time.

[YTeleven]

Aceman/YTeleven - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.

Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.

Don't wait for FAD. File it when the FD becomes current in next 6 to 9 months.

[YTeleven]

Knowing that the data available for predictions is not reliable, can we be still be certain that EB3 FAD will move significantly ahead of EB2? Do we have sufficient credible data to come to that conclusion?

I was talking about CRS report which has flaws in my opinion. We have enough data to predict that EB2India will never catch-up with EB3India in next 5 years. So forget about FAD, use FD. USCIS can choose any date between FAD & FD. I'm predicting they will choose a date in between FAD & FD for EB3India in future to get as much demand as they can to meet the the supply of EB3 Visas.

[EB22010Dec]

Don't wait for FAD. File it when the FD becomes current in next 6 to 9 months.

You think filing date will cross 2010 dec in next 6-9
Months ?

[kb2013]

I was talking about CRS report which has flaws in my opinion. We have enough data to predict that EB2India will never catch-up with EB3India in next 5 years. So forget about FAD, use FD. USCIS can choose any date between FAD & FD. I'm predicting they will choose a date in between FAD & FD for EB3India in future to get as much demand as they can to meet the the supply of EB3 Visas.

Thanks for the reinforcement. Working with the attorney for concurrent filing. Will keep updated about the progress.

[mjaggu]

Consult a high profile Lawyer who can do concurrent filing before 31st Jan. Don't miss the opportunity.
You might get another opportunity in less than an year but you should not miss the first chance in immigration.

Really Appreciate the response. Will talk to my employer and will do the needful to work with an attorney.

[Airbender]

My PD is July29th, 2009 EB2. I have never been able to file EAD due to some poor circumstances. I was hoping i will be able to file 485 this year but now it seems that is a stretch. I am on fence to downgrade or not. Appreciate any advice.

[mar2010er]

Hi mjaggu -

I am on the same boat. I have contacted my attorney and working on the paperwork for downgrade at this moment. 485 could be filed concurrently. However, my attorney's office said it takes 4-6 weeks for them to prepare the case work. So I am not sure, if they would do it before the 31st Jan deadline.

[kb2013]

I read some forum posts that indicated that USCIS will not issue EAD,AP if they switch to FAD and if the FAD is not current when EAD/AP is being processed. Is this correct? Or, if I apply for 485, EAD, AP within the month FD is current, they will still issue EAD,AP even if FD or FAD is not current during processing?

[AceMan]

I read some forum posts that indicated that USCIS will not issue EAD,AP if they switch to FAD and if the FAD is not current when EAD/AP is being processed. Is this correct? Or, if I apply for 485, EAD, AP within the month FD is current, they will still issue EAD,AP even if FD or FAD is not current during processing?

This theory an outright bluff with no basis, only fear mongering. With 10 years delay, already it is easy for people in EB2 to fall prey for it. They don't want to torpedo their chances after waiting for long.

[mjaggu]

Hi mjaggu -

I am on the same boat. I have contacted my attorney and working on the paperwork for downgrade at this moment. 485 could be filed concurrently. However, my attorney's office said it takes 4-6 weeks for them to prepare the case work. So I am not sure, if they would do it before the 31st Jan deadline.

Hi mar2010er

I will talk to my employer and get hold of our attorney today, hopefully.
Best of Luck!