No second thought. Just do it. To know more about EB3 India future.. go through my last 4 years updates in this forum.Originally Posted by kb2013
No second thought. Just do it. To know more about EB3 India future.. go through my last 4 years updates in this forum.
Hello Q,
How credible are the pending inventory reports? The three reports which were published in 18 had numbers all over the place. What is your personal opinion about Julys report?
Instead of using USCIS report, With available data can we formulate pending inventory?
Thanks!, for the advice. Will do. Been binge reading forums recently. We will likely be 2 less from the EB2 queue if all goes well.
Hi Q/Spec,
Do you guys think that EB2I dates are slated to move anytime soon? I have been waiting for my dates to get current for last 2 months and they are stuck at April 1st 2009. Mine is April 3rd. I am really anxious and miss going to India. I have been waiting to get this GC first before booking tix to india. Please throw some light. Greatly appreciate all you guys have done over ther years on this forum.
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PD -4/3/2009 | I-485 Filing Date - 4/17/2012 | Receipt Date:4/25/2012 | Date current since : Feb 2019 | Card Being Produced: 5/2/2019
They are no longer credible at all for most Categories and Countries, since they appear to no longer show any cases pending that were submitted after March 7 2017 (or have a PD later that that date).
They no longer show cases pending at NBC or at the Field Offices.
Two other USCIS Reports show I-485 pending numbers.
a) Local Office and Service Center report. This does not report a figure for NBC.
b) All Forms Report. There's no information about what the number represents in terms of location.
The table below shows the figures from the 3 sources and the difference from the figure reported in the Inventory Report. The figure represents all pending I-485 for all categories and all Countries.
Date ------ Inventory -- Loc. Off - LOff Diff -- All Forms - AllFrm Diff
Apr-17 ------ 128,873 --- 138,347 ----- 9,474 ---- 138,404 ------- 9,531
Aug-17 ------ 144,223 --- 144,272 -------- 49 ---- 148,553 ------- 4,330
Oct-17 ------ 133,502 --- 139,768 ----- 6,266 ---- 149,382 ------ 15,880
Jan-18 ------ 103,675 --- 114,734 ---- 11,059 ---- 142,577 ------ 38,902
Apr-18 ------- 48,190 --- 115,084 ---- 66,894 ---- 162,675 ----- 114,485
Jul-18 ------- 29,471 ---- 76,868 ---- 47,397 ---- 149,179 ----- 119,708
You can make your own mind up as to whether the USCIS Inventory still has any value whatsoever.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Aceman - can you shed some light on how Eb3 movement is going to be both filing date and FAD.
Your input is very valuable to us. THANK YOU.
Here are my additional 2 cents to Spec's wonderful answer.
The 485 inventory never was quite reliable. However now it is all the more unreliable because it only represents service centers and USCIS has again started old ways of keeping cases at field USCIS offices.
Having said that I do think it still is better to have incomplete picture than no picture.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Nishant - I no longer do calculations. Sorry. I will let others answer this question.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Interestingly this CRS report (https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R45447) repeatedly says that those July'2018 Inventory numbers 29,471 represent administrative backlogs of applications that have been already allocated numerically limited visa numbers and are closest to completion.
See page No. 15 & 16. I don't believe that statement is a true statement as 63% of them (15,826) are EB2 India applications. In my opinion it is a big FLAW of this report.
Likewise I can find many other flaws and incorrect assumptions due to lack of public data. I'm not sure how can congress rely on such report for taking any action on legislative changes. Best way is to make CURRENT every category for every country for 2 months and generate the genuine demand and clear duplicate/triplicate applications and discard all inactive applications. This way all the reports get the reset and then congress can take a proper action on the issues based on correct reports.
Knowing that the data available for predictions is not reliable, can we be still be certain that EB3 FAD will move significantly ahead of EB2? Do we have sufficient credible data to come to that conclusion?
Thats what happened in july 2007. I dont think it will happen again.
Thats what happened in july 2007. I dont think it will happen again.
Visa statistics for 2018 released.
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...fice-2018.html
India - 10967, 4096, 6112
Grand Totals 39,521(EB1) 40,641(2) 39,966(3) 9,753(4)
Did EB2 INDIA receive spillover of mere 1096 only for FY 2018? If that is the spillover we will receive this year where would EB2 INDIA land?
How did China get 4312 in EB3 when their date is more advanced than India's EB3? Also Phillipines got 6588 in EB3 but I assume that is because they used less in category 1 and 2.
This should clear up to end of June 2009. Assumes zero porting, zero down grades.
Iatiam
Some poster had predicted this last year. Because there was interview mandate and Eb3-I inventory (that did not need interviews) got exhausted, the beneficiary was China EB3.
EB2 got 601 more visas for FY 2018 and India got 1292 more than allocated 2804.
I think the 600 extra visas, EB2 got was because of interview mandate and Eb1, EB3 unable to meet the numbers. This may not be the case in FY 2019.
So you think we may receive more than 1292 SO visas this FY?
It all depends on EB2 demand from ROW. Nothing from EB1, only horizontal for FY 2019. Too difficult to predict, 4000-5000 might be best case for EB2 I
No surprises, last year at this time we expected 10K+ visas (EB2India plus EB3India together) based on FY17 figures here :
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8922#post58922
We can safely predict same for next year too i.e. FY19 10K+ (3k+ plus 6k+) for both EB2&3India together.
In-fact we can predict same for next 5 years that was the basis for this post:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...0972#post60972
Thanks YT... your predictions have been very accurate over the last few years. Great job!
Any reason why only 6K+ for EB3-I? I was under the impression that there is very less demand in EB3ROW and there is substantial spillover available for EB3-I.
Is there any numbers that is prompting you to reach this conclusion?
Not too bad considering we are out of the days of retrogression. And no more porting and potential slow down in EB1C filings as well. Once we get over the May and June 2009 bumps the flow show be more straigtforward.
Iatiam
I've put a breakdown of the DOS Visa Statistics here.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I might agree with AceMan if the recession keyword lives in the news through out the FY19.
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