EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

Apologize if this is redundant question, can Guru's here forecast how 2019 would be for EB2-I and EB3-I backing with numbers?

Once again, Merry Christmas and Happy new year. I hope everyone gets greened.

If you want the backing of the numbers we can do only EB2 I. With very limited SO, EB2 will end FY 2019 with 1st August 2009. Depending on the SO, we can revisit this in July 2019 to see if there is a chance of pushing it to September or October 2009. Extremely difficult to see EB2 pass November 09.

Eb3 filing dates moved to April 2010 for January 2019. Inventory building going on, most probably surpass EB2 final dates in the next couple of months. Depending on the demand, it can get a big jump in the April bulletin or the July bulletin. No concrete numbers to backup, but in all probability EB3 I might end FY 2019 with a May 1st 2010 PD, and filing date at 1st April 2011.

The downward porting will come into picture only from FY 2020.

[YTeleven]

YTeleven, any idea why co is moving eb3 filing dates aggressively when there are so many ppl from 2007/2008 still waiting to be greened. Is he trying to build the inventory for fy19 or is he building for fy20 too?

Where did you get the info on so many people with 2007/2008 PDs waiting in EB3I?
The FAD for EB3I is 01MAR09 that means All the applications with PDs older than this date are in final process and are guaranteed to get the GC as soon as they clear the final action process.
There is NO inventory building concept since Jul'15 when Obama Admn. reformed the Visa Bulletin process.
You can't use the filing dates for inventory building but you can use those dates to take the application in advance and make the process smoother and efficient.
No more retrogressions with this reform that's the original intention of the Obama's EO.
So all the people who are filing in EB3I next month will be going to get the GCs in 8 months, they are not going to sit in inventory for 6 years like the applications received in 2012 inventory building.
In other words can you find anyone who filed the I-485 after Jul'15 and waiting for more than a year to get the GC. I don't think there is any such applicant exists unless he/she stuck in background check.

[YTeleven]

YT .. that's depressing, but reality probably. Based on available numbers, do you think a movement of 3 months/yr is possible for 2009 for EB2I?

I can only predict the total supply of the VISAs for EB2I and it will be 3000/YR for next 3 years.
Now if you assume EB2I has 1000 applications/Month of Inventory then it is true that Eb2I will move 3 months/Year for next 3 years.

Its really depressing....

[rohanvus]

I can only predict the total supply of the VISAs for EB2I and it will be 3000/YR for next 3 years.
Now if you assume EB2I has 1000 applications/Month of Inventory then it is true that Eb2I will move 3 months/Year for next 3 years.

Its really depressing....

YTeleven,


For someone whose PD is in dec 2011 (EB2 India) , should he grab opportunity in Canada or should he do wait and watch for 3/4 years ( assume things get better in 4 years from now ) ? .. Whats your take ?

[gcvijay]

Are you saying there will not be any spillovers to EB2 INDIA for next three years? The EB2 I dates are at April 1 2009 already so you are saying by end of this FY its May 2009? by FY 2020 Aug 2009 and by FY 2021 its Nov 2009? If that is the case shouldn't the entire EB2 INDIA who have and have not filed AOS will be downgrading to make use of this. Don't you think this will make the EB3 inventory flood up. I'm pretty sure there are too many downgrades going on already and it will show up in the future inventory. I will be surprised if EB3 doesn't get jammed and still made to move further.

[tenyearsgone]

Are you saying there will not be any spillovers to EB2 INDIA for next three years? The EB2 I dates are at April 1 2009 already so you are saying by end of this FY its May 2009? by FY 2020 Aug 2009 and by FY 2021 its Nov 2009? If that is the case shouldn't the entire EB2 INDIA who have and have not filed AOS will be downgrading to make use of this. Don't you think this will make the EB3 inventory flood up. I'm pretty sure there are too many downgrades going on already and it will show up in the future inventory. I will be surprised if EB3 doesn't get jammed and still made to move further.

That's what the numbers say. If I remember right, the pending applications beyond April 2009 are around 1000 - 1500/month. With no spillover, the movement is fairly well defined at 2-3months/yr for the next few years.

Downgrading is not an option for everyone for various reasons. A good percentage of the folks who got EAD would have switched jobs in the last 7 years(since 2012 Feb) and wouldn't have filed a new Perm since they used AC21. It takes time and effort to get a new perm filed and move ahead. Some attorneys say that a new perm is not needed, but my company's attorney says new perm and I-140 is required.

However, everyone beyond 2010 April has a new perm with their current employer, so they should/will downgrade for sure. The future EB3 jam will come primarily from post-April 2010 folks.

[YTeleven]

Are you saying there will not be any spillovers to EB2 INDIA for next three years? The EB2 I dates are at April 1 2009 already so you are saying by end of this FY its May 2009? by FY 2020 Aug 2009 and by FY 2021 its Nov 2009? If that is the case shouldn't the entire EB2 INDIA who have and have not filed AOS will be downgrading to make use of this. Don't you think this will make the EB3 inventory flood up. I'm pretty sure there are too many downgrades going on already and it will show up in the future inventory. I will be surprised if EB3 doesn't get jammed and still made to move further.

Yes. That's where we are heading. Another prediction we can safely make here is EB2I+EB3I Combined VISAs = 10000+/YR.
I think We saw this drill by EB3I porters for last one decade, now it EB2I guys turn to become porters for next one decade.
Good part of this is there are no one in EB3I to curse the Eb2I guy as porter. Its a empty queue who ever downgrades first gets the freedom first.
This reminds me of the Hindi movie names: "Andaz Apna Apna", "Joh Jeetha Wohi Sikander"

[YTeleven]

That's what the numbers say. If I remember right, the pending applications beyond April 2009 are around 1000 - 1500/month. With no spillover, the movement is fairly well defined at 2-3months/yr for the next few years.

Downgrading is not an option for everyone for various reasons. A good percentage of the folks who got EAD would have switched jobs in the last 7 years(since 2012 Feb) and wouldn't have filed a new Perm since they used AC21. It takes time and effort to get a new perm filed and move ahead. Some attorneys say that a new perm is not needed, but my company's attorney says new perm and I-140 is required.

However, everyone beyond 2010 April has a new perm with their current employer, so they should/will downgrade for sure. The future EB3 jam will come primarily from post-April 2010 folks.

True. I appreciate your thoughts. EB2I AC21 guys are clueless on what to do next.
Spec,
Any thoughts on what can a EB2I AC21 person can do to downgrade and get the GC faster while EB3I queue is on its free wheels?

[EB2/eb3]

Where did you get the info on so many people with 2007/2008 PDs waiting in EB3I?
The FAD for EB3I is 01MAR09 that means All the applications with PDs older than this date are in final process and are guaranteed to get the GC as soon as they clear the final action process.
There is NO inventory building concept since Jul'15 when Obama Admn. reformed the Visa Bulletin process.
You can't use the filing dates for inventory building but you can use those dates to take the application in advance and make the process smoother and efficient.
No more retrogressions with this reform that's the original intention of the Obama's EO.
So all the people who are filing in EB3I next month will be going to get the GCs in 8 months, they are not going to sit in inventory for 6 years like the applications received in 2012 inventory building.
In other words can you find anyone who filed the I-485 after Jul'15 and waiting for more than a year to get the GC. I don't think there is any such applicant exists unless he/she stuck in background check.

Track it shows 178 active users who filed 485 just this year and it does not even include any dec filers. I think we multiply this number by 20 or 30(derivatives and assuming only 10% are on track it and added their case to the tracker) to get an approximate which ~ 4,450. Even with 3k SO Eb3 fad can’t go beyond 2009 this fy year.
P.s: multiplying by 20 or 30 is something someone on this forum showed, to get an approximate count

[nbk1976]

YTeleven,


For someone whose PD is in dec 2011 (EB2 India) , should he grab opportunity in Canada or should he do wait and watch for 3/4 years ( assume things get better in 4 years from now ) ? .. Whats your take ?

Everyone's case is very unlike everyone else's. If your career and your family's is better in Canada or elsewhere than you should move. There is no reason to waste a decade of your life in any hardship. Why are you in the US, is the question you must ask yourself. What is the main and foremost reason? Is it pay? just a change of scenery? better career growth? or better quality of life? or something else? And how important is that?

In my case, if moving out of the US was an easy option, I should return home, not move to Canada or any other place. My career being in non-technology, and having invested heavily here, moving is a lot harder than staying.

[YTeleven]

Track it shows 178 active users who filed 485 just this year and it does not even include any dec filers. I think we multiply this number by 20 or 30(derivatives and assuming only 10% are on track it and added their case to the tracker) to get an approximate which ~ 4,450. Even with 3k SO Eb3 fad can’t go beyond 2009 this fy year.
P.s: multiplying by 20 or 30 is something someone on this forum showed, to get an approximate count

I'm NOT a track it guy. I use only USCIS & DOS data for the predictions.
I still believe EB3I queue will be a runaway train in near future if we don't have a pathway for the EB2I AC21 guys to grab a visa from EB3I quota.
I will not surprise if EB3I queue moves to 2011 in next 9 months.

[EB22010Dec]

I'm NOT a track it guy. I use only USCIS & DOS data for the predictions.
I still believe EB3I queue will be a runaway train in near future if we don't have a pathway for the EB2I AC21 guys to grab a visa from EB3I quota.
I will not surprise if EB3I queue moves to 2011 in next 9 months.

It might go into 2011, but will it stay in 2011?

[AceMan]

I'm NOT a track it guy. I use only USCIS & DOS data for the predictions.
I still believe EB3I queue will be a runaway train in near future if we don't have a pathway for the EB2I AC21 guys to grab a visa from EB3I quota.
I will not surprise if EB3I queue moves to 2011 in next 9 months.

EB3 I has little over 50 K approved I 140's from 2007 to early 2018. If we account for approvals from April 2018 till date, along with the upgrades, duplicates and abandoned, the true numbers might be even less than 20 K. So while the runaway train will go till early 2012, it will be halted there for a while till EB2 pass May 2010.

The downgrades will not temper EB3 progress for FY 19. FY 2020 a different ball game.

[EB22010Dec]

EB3 I has little over 50 K approved I 140's from 2007 to early 2018. If we account for approvals from April 2018 till date, along with the upgrades, duplicates and abandoned, the true numbers might be even less than 20 K. So while the runaway train will go till early 2012, it will be halted there for a while till EB2 pass May 2010.

The downgrades will not temper EB3 progress for FY 19. FY 2020 a different ball game.

Do you think in 2020 Eb3 will be pushed back into 2010 or will it be leaft in 2011/2012 ?

How does the new way of using filing date and actual date effect this ?

[newyorker123]

What a conundrum the EB2I people are in. And with a 2012PD, I am in a dilemma whether or not to join the conundrum.
But having seen what has happened in the past few years, I think no one should place their life/career in the hands of USCIS and the like. If you see a more definitive option ahead (such as EB1C / Canada etc. etc.), just go for it.

[AceMan]

Do you think in 2020 Eb3 will be pushed back into 2010 or will it be leaft in 2011/2012 ?

How does the new way of using filing date and actual date effect this ?

The filing dates will now act as a buffer from sudden retrogression and the wastage of visa's which has been bogging EB3 for close to a decade. Even while all the pointers are showing that EB3 I will zoom well into 2011 this FY, the side story is that's going to be filing date and not final date. I will be surprised to see if final dates moving beyond May 2010 this FY.

For reasonable 2020 analysis, we need to see how much SO, EB2 got in 2019.

[Immigo]

The filing dates will now act as a buffer from sudden retrogression and the wastage of visa's which has been bogging EB3 for close to a decade. Even while all the pointers are showing that EB3 I will zoom well into 2011 this FY, the side story is that's going to be filing date and not final date. I will be surprised to see if final dates moving beyond May 2010 this FY.

For reasonable 2020 analysis, we need to see how much SO, EB2 got in 2019.

On a lighter note, looks like in 2020, EB2 and EB3 categories will have a twenty-twenty match! Oh well, we will know at the end of 2020, because hindsight is 20/20

[iatiam]

True. I appreciate your thoughts. EB2I AC21 guys are clueless on what to do next.
Spec,
Any thoughts on what can a EB2I AC21 person can do to downgrade and get the GC faster while EB3I queue is on its free wheels?

I guess I don't get it.

I have shared this info here before - my attorney who is one of the leading ones in the US told that they are open for a downgrade. She indicated that it's possible to do it in premium as well. For the record I am an EB2 guy and never had an EB3 petition.

Also, if you could port, why shouldn't someone be able to reverse port? Theoretically it should be easier. Going by precedent, Chinese have done it and it has very good precedent.

The only reason downward porting is not happened yet is because EB3I FAD is still behind EB2I. If this moves to a comfortable six month or so ahead of EB2, I bet a lot of us will take this option. The argument that "You have an EAD just wait" is not valid. Some of us have waited close to 10 years and is such an option is available, why not take it.

Also, stock market is crashing. It's just a matter of time before it spreads in to overall economy. People will act in their best interest and I don't find any thing wrong with that.

Iatiam

[bloddy1]

My PD is Aug 2010. Thru and Thru EB2-I guy. When I reached out to my firm's lawyer they told me following

1. Perm doesn't need to be filed to downgrade
2. I-140 can't be filed in premium and may take 6-8 months for approval.
3. Once I-140 is filed/approved for EB3. I can't move back to EB-2. My only option is to stick with EB3.

So they told me think about it before making any call on downgrade

Firm in question is Fragoman

Any thoughts from why #3 is an issue, just in case for future if you have to move back to EB2 queue? Can you not use the same approved Perm/I-140. While not a short term issue but who knows the long term what happens?

[dev2010]

Any thoughts from why #3 is an, just in case for future you have to move back to EB2 queue? Can you not use the same approved Perm/I-140. While not a short term issue but who knows the long term what happens?

I think you should downgrade. Your date has a better chance through EB3 to become current. Also you have never filled I-1485 so you don't have that confusion as well. My case is also being handled by Fragomen. My PD is 2010 Oct. Currently perm is in process. Perm has EB2 requirements. Whenever it gets approved I will have to make a decision on EB2/EB3. I have a strong feeling it's going to be EB3.

[tenyearsgone]

I guess I don't get it.

I have shared this info here before - my attorney who is one of the leading ones in the US told that they are open for a downgrade. She indicated that it's possible to do it in premium as well. For the record I am an EB2 guy and never had an EB3 petition.

Iatiam

@Iatiam
Do you have a Perm filed from your current employer (if you have changed jobs on AC21)?

[iatiam]

@Iatiam
Do you have a Perm filed from your current employer (if you have changed jobs on AC21)?

No. I have changed jobs multiple times since getting my EAD in 2012

Iatiam

[tenyearsgone]

No. I have changed jobs multiple times since getting my EAD in 2012

Iatiam

I have also changed multiple times since. Would appreciate it if you can elaborate a bit more on what your attorney has suggested.

What is the process she is taking to move from Eb2 -> Eb3.. by sending some form/application to USCIS?
Has your current employer notified USCIS is some way that the I140 petitioner should be updated?

Thanks in advance.

[iatiam]

I have also changed multiple times since. Would appreciate it if you can elaborate a bit more on what your attorney has suggested.

What is the process she is taking to move from Eb2 -> Eb3.. by sending some form/application to USCIS?
Has your current employer notified USCIS is some way that the I140 petitioner should be updated?

Thanks in advance.

I don't know the details yet because I have not initiated action on my end. Unless EB3I FAD moves ahead, it does not make sense for me to do it

[GCdreamz]

Q1: After EB2 to EB3 downgrade by applying I140 only, can we go back to EB2? I assume "YES" but want to get others opinion too.

Q2: When I140 & I485 are Pending/In-process, can we travel outside the country?

Q3: If dependents have to travel outside the country when date is current and application was not submitted, can primary person submit I485 and do amendment for dependents?