EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[gcvijay]

I don't think you need to pay money for AP/EAD renewal. I did it once and did not pay any money. The company attorney takes care of it now.

Iatiam

Well there are few folks working on the EVC model and 80/20 contracts for a vendor as full time and those ppl are doing it by themselves at their own cost.

Also the latest CO predictions say that it will take 5 yrs to clear EB2 INDIA until Jan 2011

[AceMan]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

I can safely say, they are bluffing, just to show you that they are not really comfortable as you think. You even said lot of them in EVC model, and they are ready to do a full interview after filing for I-140/485 (the cost factor way more than EAD/AP renewal, any RFE's extra) in Eb3 while in Eb2 they can safely get the GC in mail.

[Maxray]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

Going for interview is not the biggest thing, the wait time associated with it based on the region they are located will make a big difference. Besides anybody with a PD greater than mid 2010 should probably think about it. The question here was will Eb2 guys from late 2009 upto 2010 make this jump.

[EB2/eb3]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

It makes sense for people with 2010 PD to downgrade, 2009 people will get their GCs around the same time in either category. 6 more months in the current line Or 6 more months in the downgrade route is their choice.

[tenyearsgone]

I can safely say, they are bluffing, just to show you that they are not really comfortable as you think. You even said lot of them in EVC model, and they are ready to do a full interview after filing for I-140/485 (the cost factor way more than EAD/AP renewal, any RFE's extra) in Eb3 while in Eb2 they can safely get the GC in mail.

I know of a few people who would take that small risk rather than wait another 3-4 years given the current pace of EB2I. IMHO, although people with EAD have some advantages, there are a fair number of problems with EAD renewals. After 5 or 6 EAD renewals, people do tire of the nervousness that comes every 1.5 years or earlier and would rather face a interview if their EVC or EC model is stable.

[AceMan]

I know of a few people who would take that small risk rather than wait another 3-4 years given the current pace of EB2I. IMHO, although people with EAD have some advantages, there are a fair number of problems with EAD renewals. After 5 or 6 EAD renewals, people do tire of the nervousness that comes every 1.5 years or earlier and would rather face a interview if their EVC or EC model is stable.

I can assure you, there will be none, nada, zilch. All these brave hearts will talk big to the people who have not filed for EAD. When the filing dates are ahead they will say they will downgrade when the Final Action dates are past. When the final action dates are past they will say will wait for few months. After 2 months they will be still on research and finally come up with some lawyer report stating RFE's, I485 denied, wrong 485 denied. They are simply better off with their current nervousness compared to any of the above scenarios.

Till May 2010, people in EB2 with EAD, none of them are going to downgrade to EB3.

[kisvasa]

If that is the case, will EB3 move faster ?? With no down grades assumption.... what would your prediction be for April 2011 - EB3 ?

[iatiam]

Well there are few folks working on the EVC model and 80/20 contracts for a vendor as full time and those ppl are doing it by themselves at their own cost.

Also the latest CO predictions say that it will take 5 yrs to clear EB2 INDIA until Jan 2011

It doesn't cost any money if you do it yourselves. And it's a simple enough form to hire anyone to do it.

Iatiam

[tenyearsgone]

I can assure you, there will be none, nada, zilch. All these brave hearts will talk big to the people who have not filed for EAD. When the filing dates are ahead they will say they will downgrade when the Final Action dates are past. When the final action dates are past they will say will wait for few months. After 2 months they will be still on research and finally come up with some lawyer report stating RFE's, I485 denied, wrong 485 denied. They are simply better off with their current nervousness compared to any of the above scenarios.

Till May 2010, people in EB2 with EAD, none of them are going to downgrade to EB3.

Thanks AceMan, but sometimes you have to be in someone else's situation to better understand. In this case we are talking of people who have already been in line for ~10 years and have come close to or faced job termination etc due to delayed EAD renewals multiple times. Call them brave hearts or nervous .. not everyone is blessed with fortitude to handle such situations repeteadly. If there's a legal way to move ahead, people should certainly explore it. It's the same with folks who do a EB1 or go back to India or whatever else to get closure sooner.

[AceMan]

Thanks AceMan, but sometimes you have to be in someone else's situation to better understand. In this case we are talking of people who have already been in line for ~10 years and have come close to or faced job termination etc due to delayed EAD renewals multiple times. Call them brave hearts or nervous .. not everyone is blessed with fortitude to handle such situations repeteadly. If there's a legal way to move ahead, people should certainly explore it. It's the same with folks who do a EB1 or go back to India or whatever else to get closure sooner.

I am also in the country for 11 years, I also know people here for 15 years with 2011 PD's and no chance to file for EAD yet.
The EAD renewal issue has been fixed already, so lets not worry about the past issues. Those people already have a secured path compared to others who face the uncertainty of H1 renewals, even if renewed then renewed for only 1 year or just the project duration.

I have no problem if an EB2 person from 2010 downgrading to EB3 if he has not filed for EAD yet. They have been waiting for long and it makes sense for them to opt for a subset of their skills.

People with I-485 filed need to know that when they file another 485, one of the petition gets denied. Eb2 people already with an EAD/I-485 petition trying to downgrade to EB3, causes unnecessary clutter to the queue, above all causes damage for themselves also.

In any case people do what that feel appropriate or right for themselves. People can hog on to 2 chairs, claiming that they paid for it.

[Desi Dude]

My PD EB2-I May 22,2009

Well... just talked with my Lawyer this afternoon. I had two important questions I needed to be addressed
1. Could we start Eb3 downgrade only if we are able to do premium processing of I-140. Since there is no Perm involved with downgrade, my lawyer said it depends on the officer whether to accept premium process.
2. Just in case if there was any issue during downgrade like RFE or other unforeseen issues, is my EB2 safe to fall back to ? He said EB2 will only be cancelled once EB3 is accepted. And that way my EB2 is safe.

So looks like I'll wait till next bulletin to come out and start the downgrade process.
Funny thing is I moved cross country, got a new job and switched from Eb3 to Eb2 just 2 months ago.lol

If you already have EB2 I-140 & EB3 I-140 then why do you need to file anything? Shouldn't you just send an email to USCIS asking to use EB3 I-140 and it's PD instead? I mean, that's how people did the upgrades then why is it different for downgrades?

[GCdreamz]

Check-In by Charlie. EB3I FD is going to overtake EB2I next month or in few months.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/11/28/de...for-eb2-india/

Next question is by how many months will EB3I overtake EB2I? I think EB3I FD will be around Jan 2010

And DOF movement in FY 19? I think August 2010

These are my conservative estimates.

[bloddy1]

Eb2 original filers till May 2010 with EAD have no incentive to port down. That means we can safely exclude the 15 K people currently in the inventory as potential Eb3 users. Spec's fact and data had about 38K PERMS for 2009/10. We had about 4 K 2009 PD greened in 2014. Out of the 38 K due to attrition, duplicate filing, spouses, I will dare to say that we have only under 50% of that list in the primaries which would be about 18 K, add about a dependent we have around 35 K total people in both Eb2/3. Reduce the 15K already with AOS and 4 K already greened, we have only about 16 K in total for EB2/3 for both 2009/2010. With almost every category current in Eb3 and Philippines closing in, it is very much in cards that EB3 I might end up with more than 10 K in 2019 if they advance the dates rapidly.

I took the liberty of using lot of educated assumptions.

Eb2 downgrades are only going to come in picture from FY 2020.

Three things;
Demand Destruction may be a myth! Likely my famous last words. At a minimum, don't think there is as much destruction but guru's here have way better understanding of it.

Secondly, I actually think there is way more motivation to downgrade to EB3 and as you say it will start hitting at start of FY2020 timeframe, which is when Final Dates would be favorable to do so.

Finally, SOFAD is what can change the course of Eb3/2 significantly. If either receive even minimal SOFAD, then good chance things will keep moving rather than stagnating.

[tenyearsgone]

I am also in the country for 11 years, I also know people here for 15 years with 2011 PD's and no chance to file for EAD yet.
The EAD renewal issue has been fixed already, so lets not worry about the past issues. Those people already have a secured path compared to others who face the uncertainty of H1 renewals, even if renewed then renewed for only 1 year or just the project duration.

I have no problem if an EB2 person from 2010 downgrading to EB3 if he has not filed for EAD yet. They have been waiting for long and it makes sense for them to opt for a subset of their skills.

People with I-485 filed need to know that when they file another 485, one of the petition gets denied. Eb2 people already with an EAD/I-485 petition trying to downgrade to EB3, causes unnecessary clutter to the queue, above all causes damage for themselves also.

In any case people do what that feel appropriate or right for themselves. People can hog on to 2 chairs, claiming that they paid for it.

Personally, I'll be hitting the 20-yr mark soon enough .. and our perspectives are colored by our own experiences/situations. Nothing wrong in that.

[mar2010er]

Hi guys, I was EB3I with PD 3/2010. I moved companies and upgraded to EB2I, did not get EAD as the dates receded back. Do you think at this point I should proactively downgrade to EB3I at this point.

[rocketfast]

Check-In by Charlie. EB3I FD is going to overtake EB2I next month or in few months.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/11/28/de...for-eb2-india/

From the link:

The cutoff date for EB3 India is only a month behind the cutoff date for EB2 India. In the coming months, Mr. Oppenheim anticipates that EB3 India will advance past the EB2 India cutoff date, which could lead to the EB3-to-EB2 downgrade filings that have been common in these categories for China.

So looks like CO believes that people with EB2-I < May 2010 will downgrade by a large margin. It may be a bad mistake.

While attending a recent conference, Mr. Oppenheim also provided a more long-term prediction for the EB2 India category. Based on the number of pending I-485s in this category, he expects it to take about five years to process all of the EB2 India cases with priority dates that are earlier than January 2011.

If he believes that there will be a lot of downgrades from EB2 to EB3, it may be a good assumption to say that he thinks it is a single queue needing 5 years to clear 2010. At 10k GCs a year, he probably thinks that there is a demand of 50k in EB2+EB3.

[AceMan]

Personally, I'll be hitting the 20-yr mark soon enough .. and our perspectives are colored by our own experiences/situations. Nothing wrong in that.

Very true, things which I see as rosy and bed of flowers for an EAD holder, may not be accurate from that side of the fence.

Having said that, I don't think this downward porting should be a concern at all. All it contains is a very minor subset of the crowd of under 9000 (Sep 09 - May 10) who may try the EB3 route if the final dates go beyond their dates.

[iatiam]

From the link:



So looks like CO believes that people with EB2-I < May 2010 will downgrade by a large margin. It may be a bad mistake.



If he believes that there will be a lot of downgrades from EB2 to EB3, it may be a good assumption to say that he thinks it is a single queue needing 5 years to clear 2010. At 10k GCs a year, he probably thinks that there is a demand of 50k in EB2+EB3.

My PD is EB2I Aug 2009 and I have filed 485. I have initiated downgrade from EB2 to EB3 and the lawyer will hopefully get started early next year. More than me the company management wants this done. They are tired of paying for all the attorney fees. And why not? If QA testers can claim to be multi-national managers, why can't I use a legal method to move things faster.

Everything is justified in love, war and immigration.

Iatiam

[knighthood83]

From the link:



So looks like CO believes that people with EB2-I < May 2010 will downgrade by a large margin. It may be a bad mistake.



If he believes that there will be a lot of downgrades from EB2 to EB3, it may be a good assumption to say that he thinks it is a single queue needing 5 years to clear 2010. At 10k GCs a year, he probably thinks that there is a demand of 50k in EB2+EB3.

I think his assessment was if people dont downgrade. Purely based on current demand in EB2 and current supply of green cards.

[dev2010]

My PD is EB2I Aug 2009 and I have filed 485. I have initiated downgrade from EB2 to EB3 and the lawyer will hopefully get started early next year. More than me the company management wants this done. They are tired of paying for all the attorney fees. And why not? If QA testers can claim to be multi-national managers, why can't I use a legal method to move things faster.

Everything is justified in love, war and immigration.

Iatiam

Well said. Everything is relative to what suits one. People who scream about EB1 abuse but just need to take a pause and think if they would have jumped on it had that option been available to them.

[YTeleven]

Check-In by Charlie. EB3I FD is going to overtake EB2I next month or in few months.

https://www.murthy.com/2018/11/28/de...for-eb2-india/

Next question is by how many months will EB3I overtake EB2I? I think EB3I FD will be around Jan 2010

And DOF movement in FY 19? I think August 2010

These are my conservative estimates.

We already predicted this in the beginning of CY18 based on FY17 data here:
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8922#post58922
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8931#post58931

In my opinion EB3-I will be always ahead of EB2-I for next one decade with minor retrogression whenever there is a downward porting pressure kicks in periodically. How much it will advance compare to EB2-I it depends on how much downward porting rate. If downward porting is zero then EB3-I may zoom to 2011 PDs by next year. If there is significant downward porting then it might be just few months advancer than EB2-I.

[swordfish380]

"While attending a recent conference, Mr. Oppenheim also provided a more long-term prediction for the EB2 India category. Based on the number of pending I-485s in this category, he expects it to take about five years to process all of the EB2 India cases with priority dates that are earlier than January 2011. Therefore, regardless of how quickly the EB2 India category advances in the short-term, it appears that Indians with priority dates of January 2011 and later have quite a wait ahead of them"

This is from Murthy's site. I think "2011"is a typo. Do you guys agree? It should be 2010.

[maverick23]

"While attending a recent conference, Mr. Oppenheim also provided a more long-term prediction for the EB2 India category. Based on the number of pending I-485s in this category, he expects it to take about five years to process all of the EB2 India cases with priority dates that are earlier than January 2011. Therefore, regardless of how quickly the EB2 India category advances in the short-term, it appears that Indians with priority dates of January 2011 and later have quite a wait ahead of them"

This is from Murthy's site. I think "2011"is a typo. Do you guys agree? It should be 2010.

Frankly, no body checks the math and accuracy behind predictions these days for the backlogged legal immigrant community. Each month, it is a mere speculation on behalf of DOS based on volume and supply. A simple calculation of Pending EB2-I inventory between April 2009 and May 2010 (since Dec bulletin has EB2-I FD at 04.01.09) divided by the yearly quota giveS you the 5 year number referred in Murthy's article.

14216/2804 = 5 years

[altek001]

Frankly, no body checks the math and accuracy behind predictions these days for the backlogged legal immigrant community. Each month, it is a mere speculation on behalf of DOS based on volume and supply. A simple calculation of Pending EB2-I inventory between April 2009 and May 2010 (since Dec bulletin has EB2-I FD at 04.01.09) divided by the yearly quota giveS you the 5 year number referred in Murthy's article.

14216/2804 = 5 years

As Mark Twain said, 'The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to future'.

No one can accurately predict the future, but it's still helpful to read predictions that pundits have made in this forum.

[qesehmk]

As Mark Twain said, 'The art of prophecy is very difficult, especially with respect to future'.

Haa haa haa!

Here is another favorite of mine by him - “The reports of my death are greatly exaggerated.”