EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[rohanvus]

I don't think that would be an accurate take. January 2017 - August 2017 would be in FY 2017 and they issued 1122 visa's of the 2879 total during that time.

Aug 2017 - July 2017 they issued 3300. We have to see the October pending inventory to see the start of EB2 I for FY 2019.

Ace,

Assuming the worst case (i.e w/o spill over) , i dont see EB2 India crossing 2010 for another five years atleast . If one is newer to this country , choice is clear that this long wait is not worth it. The most difficult situation is for the guys like us who have been more than a decade in this country and with PD hovering around 2011/2012- its very difficult not only because its tough to uproot the family for these folks esp (given the amount of investment they have done here , have kids born here and going to school ,bought homes ,etc.) but also because having a PD around 2011/2012 keeps one always hopeful that its not that far , kinda living a pipe dream . . Btw , my PD is Dec 2011(EB2) and i dont see getting GC in another decade . As i age i am making it almost impossible even to get a Canada PR

[redsox2009]

OCTOBER DOS Data total.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	030	001	005	000	002	000	073	111
EB2	021	001	000	021	121	005	169	338
EB3	015	122	046	511	064	010	511	1279
EB4	000	020	000	007	015	000	129	171
EB5	358	035	000	000	022	125	125	665
Total	424	179	051	539	224	140	1007	2564

[AceMan]

Ace,

Assuming the worst case (i.e w/o spill over) , i dont see EB2 India crossing 2010 for another five years atleast . If one is newer to this country , choice is clear that this long wait is not worth it. The most difficult situation is for the guys like us who have been more than a decade in this country and with PD hovering around 2011/2012- its very difficult not only because its tough to uproot the family for these folks esp (given the amount of investment they have done here , have kids born here and going to school ,bought homes ,etc.) but also because having a PD around 2011/2012 keeps one always hopeful that its not that far , kinda living a pipe dream . . Btw , my PD is Dec 2011(EB2) and i dont see getting GC in another decade . As i age i am making it almost impossible even to get a Canada PR

If you look at absolute numbers 2804 per year quota, to reach May 2010 it takes about 4 years. But we know that's not true. We had reached the rock bottom in 2017 when we got 2879 visas for EB2. With EB3 getting 6600 + visas in 2017, and expecting similar numbers in 2018 as well. EB3 Philippines closing on to be current.
2009 is the last year of expanded H1 applicants (195,000 1999-2003) will be done with. Once the dates are beyond that the speed will be consistent.

[iatiam]

Ace,

I join you in feeling optimistic. There was a time a few years ago when dates would retrogress or become unavailable after October. Those days are gone and we now have moderate movement. For EB2 and EB3, the density is very low in 2009 and porting is effectively over. Things are looking up in my opinion

[AceMan]

Ace,

I join you in feeling optimistic. There was a time a few years ago when dates would retrogress or become unavailable after October. Those days are gone and we now have moderate movement. For EB2 and EB3, the density is very low in 2009 and porting is effectively over. Things are looking up in my opinion

I agree, Now in December 2018, the final action dates is within 2 years and filing dates just over 1 year improved the outlook for GC within next couple of years.
Early last year when the EB3 dates were stuck at March 2005 and EB2 dates staying in 2008 for eternity, I was fretting over the possibility of GC after 2025, and the prospect of my kid aging out with my early 2011 PD in EB3.

[march1612]

If you look at absolute numbers 2804 per year quota, to reach May 2010 it takes about 4 years. But we know that's not true. We had reached the rock bottom in 2017 when we got 2879 visas for EB2. With EB3 getting 6600 + visas in 2017, and expecting similar numbers in 2018 as well. EB3 Philippines closing on to be current.
2009 is the last year of expanded H1 applicants (195,000 1999-2003) will be done with. Once the dates are beyond that the speed will be consistent.

How much spill over can we expect in FY2019 to EB2-I and EB3-I ? and what would be the Final action dates for EB2-I and EB3-I?

[AceMan]

How much spill over can we expect in FY2019 to EB2-I and EB3-I ? and what would be the Final action dates for EB2-I and EB3-I?

It depends on the demand for ROW in both categories as we expecting only horizontal so's. The downgrade noise, I don't think will be a factor in FY 2019. I anticipate May 2010 for EB3 I, August 2009 for Eb2 I to be the final date, if we go by the 2018 trend.

[lazybones]

Guys,
My Priority date July 13, 2010 in EB3
I'm planning to change the job, for me filing 485 is equally important.
Can you please predict, when I can file my i485?

Thanks

[ferric]

Does anyone have any other sources that back up this claim in the blog post about downgrading?
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018...en-to-do-it-2/

"Furthermore, normally, USCIS does not allow premium processing where the I-140 petition is being filed without an “original” (blue paper) PERM Labor Certification; however, there is a limited exception which would allow requesting premium processing for I-140s filed without an original PERM Labor Certification if the new I-140 is being filed with the same service center as the prior I-140."

A quick google search yields nothing...

[bloddy1]

Guys,
My Priority date July 13, 2010 in EB3
I'm planning to change the job, for me filing 485 is equally important.
Can you please predict, when I can file my i485?

Thanks

A month difference in final date translates to 6 months of GC timeframe, hence expect to be a large number of downgraders. Based on that, here is my analysis on movement rest of the fiscal year 2019 for EB3, with Mar2019 as a significant inflection point because that is when EB3 Final will be significantly (more than a month) ahead of EB2 Final.

The movement of filing dates will be aggressive for EB3 every couple months to feed the pipeline and that will stop/slow down significantly once it crosses over into PD May 2010. So around May2019 bulletin, filing date will crossover into May 2010 (may be May15-30th) and EB3 final date into July/August 2009. Given there are ~3000 folks in that period plus downgrades of around ~1000, it will feed the service center/field office backlog for rest of the 2019 fiscal year.

It will remain there for at least until inventory numbers fall below ~700 in the Total EB2/3 pipeline. So that means Final date will be moved at an average of 2-weeks across both categories. Filing date will be 8-9 months ahead of Final, especially for EB3. So as of Oct-2019, Filing for EB3 will be May 31st, 2010 and Final will be Sept 1, 2009. It will stagnate significantly/move 2weeks per bulletin from there on.

[bloddy1]

It depends on the demand for ROW in both categories as we expecting only horizontal so's. The downgrade noise, I don't think will be a factor in FY 2019. I anticipate May 2010 for EB3 I, August 2009 for Eb2 I to be the final date, if we go by the 2018 trend.

While I agree the outlook has gotten better in 2018, you have to take the short term trend (so far in 2018 and last few months), as an exclusion because this is not a sustainable trend over long term. I think we are in a EB3 goldilocks period because EB2s are locked into that EB2 pipeline leaving open field for EB3. That's about to change when EB3 Final is 2-3 months ahead of Eb2 final in next few months. A large number of "EB2 lock-ins" will be spurred to downgrade or use existing EB3 PERMs.

Basically, first half of fiscal 2019 is a set-up/ramp-up for predictable second half of 2019, so all numbers are used. When we get to the end of fiscal year, SOFAD being the unknown, Eb3 will not have the open field it did in first half 2019.

[iatiam]

While I agree the outlook has gotten better in 2018, you have to take the short term trend (so far in 2018 and last few months), as an exclusion because this is not a sustainable trend over long term. I think we are in a EB3 goldilocks period because EB2s are locked into that EB2 pipeline leaving open field for EB3. That's about to change when EB3 Final is 2-3 months ahead of Eb2 final in next few months. A large number of "EB2 lock-ins" will be spurred to downgrade or use existing EB3 PERMs.

Basically, first half of fiscal 2019 is a set-up/ramp-up for predictable second half of 2019, so all numbers are used. When we get to the end of fiscal year, SOFAD being the unknown, Eb3 will not have the open field it did in first half 2019.

Nice work! With no data to back up, I am optimistic that EB2I will clear 2009 and will open the floodgates end of next CY. Also, can I request you to put the legends on the graph

[greenzone]

We have to see how many numbers EB3 can get in FY2019. will it be around 6k? Assuming we will get 6k+ including horizontal spillover, dont you think CO will move dates aggressively to build an inventory of 10k?

[AceMan]

While I agree the outlook has gotten better in 2018, you have to take the short term trend (so far in 2018 and last few months), as an exclusion because this is not a sustainable trend over long term. I think we are in a EB3 goldilocks period because EB2s are locked into that EB2 pipeline leaving open field for EB3. That's about to change when EB3 Final is 2-3 months ahead of Eb2 final in next few months. A large number of "EB2 lock-ins" will be spurred to downgrade or use existing EB3 PERMs.

Basically, first half of fiscal 2019 is a set-up/ramp-up for predictable second half of 2019, so all numbers are used. When we get to the end of fiscal year, SOFAD being the unknown, Eb3 will not have the open field it did in first half 2019.

Eb2 original filers till May 2010 with EAD have no incentive to port down. That means we can safely exclude the 15 K people currently in the inventory as potential Eb3 users. Spec's fact and data had about 38K PERMS for 2009/10. We had about 4 K 2009 PD greened in 2014. Out of the 38 K due to attrition, duplicate filing, spouses, I will dare to say that we have only under 50% of that list in the primaries which would be about 18 K, add about a dependent we have around 35 K total people in both Eb2/3. Reduce the 15K already with AOS and 4 K already greened, we have only about 16 K in total for EB2/3 for both 2009/2010. With almost every category current in Eb3 and Philippines closing in, it is very much in cards that EB3 I might end up with more than 10 K in 2019 if they advance the dates rapidly.

I took the liberty of using lot of educated assumptions.

Eb2 downgrades are only going to come in picture from FY 2020.

[lville]

My PD EB2-I May 22,2009

Well... just talked with my Lawyer this afternoon. I had two important questions I needed to be addressed
1. Could we start Eb3 downgrade only if we are able to do premium processing of I-140. Since there is no Perm involved with downgrade, my lawyer said it depends on the officer whether to accept premium process.
2. Just in case if there was any issue during downgrade like RFE or other unforeseen issues, is my EB2 safe to fall back to ? He said EB2 will only be cancelled once EB3 is accepted. And that way my EB2 is safe.

So looks like I'll wait till next bulletin to come out and start the downgrade process.
Funny thing is I moved cross country, got a new job and switched from Eb3 to Eb2 just 2 months ago.lol

[Maxray]

Eb2 original filers till May 2010 with EAD have no incentive to port down. That means we can safely exclude the 15 K people currently in the inventory as potential Eb3 users. Spec's fact and data had about 38K PERMS for 2009/10. We had about 4 K 2009 PD greened in 2014. Out of the 38 K due to attrition, duplicate filing, spouses, I will dare to say that we have only under 50% of that list in the primaries which would be about 18 K, add about a dependent we have around 35 K total people in both Eb2/3. Reduce the 15K already with AOS and 4 K already greened, we have only about 16 K in total for EB2/3 for both 2009/2010. With almost every category current in Eb3 and Philippines closing in, it is very much in cards that EB3 I might end up with more than 10 K in 2019 if they advance the dates rapidly.

I took the liberty of using lot of educated assumptions.

Eb2 downgrades are only going to come in picture from FY 2020.

Also there is the added time for interviews, i guess with downgrade EB2 guys will have to go through the interview process for people with EAD.

[EB2/eb3]

My PD EB2-I May 22,2009

Well... just talked with my Lawyer this afternoon. I had two important questions I needed to be addressed
1. Could we start Eb3 downgrade only if we are able to do premium processing of I-140. Since there is no Perm involved with downgrade, my lawyer said it depends on the officer whether to accept premium process.
2. Just in case if there was any issue during downgrade like RFE or other unforeseen issues, is my EB2 safe to fall back to ? He said EB2 will only be cancelled once EB3 is accepted. And that way my EB2 is safe.

So looks like I'll wait till next bulletin to come out and start the downgrade process.
Funny thing is I moved cross country, got a new job and switched from Eb3 to Eb2 just 2 months ago.lol

With your PD, EB2/eb3 you will be greened by end of the fiscal year!

[iatiam]

Also there is the added time for interviews, i guess with downgrade EB2 guys will have to go through the interview process for people with EAD.

This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

[qesehmk]

This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

That may be generally true but my understanding is that USCIS will interview you if they want to.

[gcvijay]

This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

yes few of my peers who had their AOS filed in 2012 with feb 2009 and Dec 2008 was asked to attend the interview and were later sent green card.

On a different note do we know why the pending inventory release is getting delayed?

[iatiam]

yes few of my peers who had their AOS filed in 2012 with feb 2009 and Dec 2008 was asked to attend the interview and were later sent green card.

There might be exceptions but pretty much everyone I know who had filed AoS in 2011-2012 and were current in the last six months got greened without GCs. Note that none of them work in IT. USCIS might be looking for IT related professions for interviews

[bloddy1]

Nice work! With no data to back up, I am optimistic that EB2I will clear 2009 and will open the floodgates end of next CY. Also, can I request you to put the legends on the graph

Updated!


Thanks

[AceMan]

This is not correct. Once 485 is filed no interview is needed

If a person applies for a new 485, he will have to go through mandated interview. I don't think people are mad enough to downgrade to EB3 from EB2 if they already had an EAD from a pending 485.

[gcvijay]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

[iatiam]

well they have their own problems I have many friends who had AOS from 2012 and have done multiple EAD\AP renewals on their money and they will trade them for an interview and get their GC faster instead of doing one or two more EAD\AP renewals.

I don't think you need to pay money for AP/EAD renewal. I did it once and did not pay any money. The company attorney takes care of it now.

Iatiam