EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[ak7419]

May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

Iatiam

Not only May and June, every month in 2009 has close to 1000 applications.

[AceMan]

May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

Iatiam

If I recall correctly March 2005 for EB3 I was the bump back in 2016-17. EB3 I moved nearly 4 years over the last 18 months. EB2 I, 14000 till May 2010. We need bucket loads of SO's here

[bloddy1]

USCIS does not approve more that 700 Green Cards a quarter for EB3-I (unless it is the last quarter). So I am wondering what to make of the FAD movement to March 1 2009 for EB3-I. Does it mean that there is NO inventory of 700 till Jan 1 2009 and that is the reason for the FAD to move to March 1 2009? Specially, since USCIS is honoring filing dates till Oct 1 2009, what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?


Some trackitt data:
===========

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Dec 2008 = 124

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to March 1 2009 = 132

Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Oct 2009 = 156

Predictable pipeline for at least 3 months, at a minimum but for the calendar year, if possible is the driver. Yes, its fair to say at mark below ~700 inventory no longer has a predictable pipeline view to engage workforce and solve for the inventory. So while the March 2009 doesnt mean there is no inventory prior, just the fact that its not enough to go from say 700 to 2000 which will keep my predictability

[texas_]

If I recall correctly March 2005 for EB3 I was the bump back in 2016-17. EB3 I moved nearly 4 years over the last 18 months. EB2 I, 14000 till May 2010. We need bucket loads of SO's here

Ace,
How much do you think of moving both FAD and FD by end of FY 2019?
Just a guesstimate!!

[GChawk]

I have EB3 with PD of Dec 21, 2010. Considering the movement in Dec bulletin for Date of filing by 3 months, Can anyone provide a realistic estimate of when I can expect my PD to be current? Thanks

[HarepathekaIntezar]

The Pending Inventory has stopped being a tool to help predictions. It is just a fudged report that does not reflect the real Inventory. But a 2 month jump in EB3 Final Date is significant. By the end of this FY, I expect EB3 Filing Dates to move into 2011 and Final Date to move into 2010 triggering a massive downgrade stampede. So, for EB2 with a PD > June 2009 and current in EB3 would be smart to downgrade to EB3.

[AceMan]

Ace,
How much do you think of moving both FAD and FD by end of FY 2019?
Just a guesstimate!!

Honestly the 2 month fad movement for Eb3 is a pleasant surprise for first quarter. They advanced Fd also to Jan 2010. It gives me hope that Eb3 might get a push forward for the January bulletin. Indicators show they might continue to respect the filing date.

By FY 2019, Eb3 FAD can be May 2010 and FD Jan 2011.

[jimmys]

what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?

They just don't see any demand for EB3-I in 2008 and early 2009. FAD Mar 1,2009 is starting only in Dec 2018. So they can send I-485 interview notices to the folks and green them in the coming quarters. Already saw several 2008 PD folks got greened in October. Hope they don't waste any visa numbers in EB3.

For EB2 downgrades to accelerate, the EB-3 FAD date has to reach mid 2010. It might happen in FY 2020. CO knew there's no immediate threat of downgrades for Indian nationals. EB-2 and EB-3 FAD dates may stabilize after May 1,2010. Until then EB-3 will roll on. EB-3 FAD may cross Oct 1,2009 in July quarter.

The prolonged FAD for EB-2 dates in 2008/2009 meant many many EB-3 applicants whose PDs were in 2008/2009 ported to EB-2. I knew a handful of people whose EB-3 PDs were in 2008/2009 but they moved to different companies and ported to EB-2.

[jimmys]

The Pending Inventory has stopped being a tool to help predictions. It is just a fudged report that does not reflect the real Inventory. But a 2 month jump in EB3 Final Date is significant. By the end of this FY, I expect EB3 Filing Dates to move into 2011 and Final Date to move into 2010 triggering a massive downgrade stampede. So, for EB2 with a PD > June 2009 and current in EB3 would be smart to downgrade to EB3.

EB2 > June 2009 would be too early of a PD to downgrade. But definitely people with >May 2010 PDs can explore options now.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

EB2 > June 2009 would be too early of a PD to downgrade. But definitely people with >May 2010 PDs can explore options now.

So are you saying EB2 will hit Apr 2010 in the next 12 months? I am saying EB2 will not move beyond June 2009 in the next 12 months.

[jimmys]

May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

Iatiam

If you look at closely the recession didn't bring that much approval for EB2-India. It's the Kazarian vs USCIS, and Family SO from previous years' that brought many thousands of SO in FY 11/12. The recession helped less PERMs in 2009. That's all. And the PERM picked up massively after 2011. Even if there's a recession it will be mild one and may not move mountains with EB-India. Just my opinion.

[jimmys]

So are you saying EB2 will hit Apr 2010 in the next 12 months? I am saying EB2 will not move beyond June 2009 in the next 12 months.

No. What I meant was most folks in EB-2 2009 already filed their I-485. To downgrade they have to file another I-140 and it can't be filed in premium. There is a risk of a RFE to check which job that currently exists. EB-3 or EB-2. It's not that big of an incentive for 2009 folks to go through the hassles.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

On another note, there is a slight difference between Chinese and Indians. Chinese tend to stick to the same employer while Indians tend to switch employers a lot more than Chinese. As a result, we have a bunch of Indians who have filed their EB3 I-140 with an ex employer and have their EB2 with their current employer and very few have the leverage with their ex employer to pursue the EB3 AOS.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

No. What I meant was most folks in EB-2 2009 already filed their I-485. To downgrade they have to file another I-140 and it can't be filed in premium. There is a risk of a RFE to check which job that currently exists. EB-3 or EB-2. It's not that big of an incentive for 2009 folks to go through the hassles.

I believe there is no bar on filing AOS in both EB2 and EB3 and you can be in both the ques at the same time. If that is the case, why not go for it? I clearly remember a few years ago when the EB3 deluge started, one applicant who had earlier filed in AOS in EB3, then upgraded to EB2 and filed AOS in EB2, he became current in both ques and he was given a choice to choose his que!

[gcvijay]

USCIS is honoring the filing dates for EB categories for December. Good luck to everyone who will be using their original EB3 petitions from May 22nd 2009 to Jan 1 2010 and hope this stabilizes the demand in EB2 INDIA going forward.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Next Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for December 2018.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for December 2018.

December 2018

[gs1968]

The future of Eb2 INDIA is limited movement as mentioned by CO and he estimates it to move only until May 22 2009 per his filing dates where he expects EB2 INDIA to be in 8-12 months which is pretty much the end of this FY. Apart from that if the following scenarios happen things will change

1) Spillovers of 1000 will clear until June 1st 2009. Spillovers of 3000 will clear until July 2009 and spillovers of 5000 or more will clear Oct\Nov 2009. This is highly unlikely given the EB2 WW and EB1 demand. The EB1 demand can be met if sufficient spillover comes from EB3 and we may get some spillover from EB2 WW this FY if there is govt shutdown in December that will slow down the perm approvals but it may not happen. If a recession is happening then we may see a rapid movement scenarios. I wouldn't count on any of these speculative situations yet.

2) Forward movement beyond may 22nd 2009 might happen if the downgrades are higher which is highly unlikely as unlike the chinese situation EB2 INDIA folks until May 2010 have their EAD\AP cards and you cannot expect much downgrades like china. Downgrades may happen if an Eb2 Applicant has a EB3 application as well either with the same employer or different employer. However this is only influential after May 22nd 2009 as there is no clear picture of how many cases we have like this after May 22nd 2009 until Jan 1 2010. They may move forward with EB3 but this doesn't change the inventory numbers as i believe those inventory numbers are ppl who filed 485 and are waiting for their GC and doesn't capture these scenarios. Even if there are like 40% of these numbers moving forward with their EB3 application this should take EB2 dates to mid of June 2009 only. The only reason of not able to measure these will make CO decide not to move the EB2 dates beyond May 22nd 2009.

At this stage we can sit back and pray that we get spillover, shutdown happens and economy slides for us to get a GC but we also have to survive all these said above to apply for GC :-)

The government shutdown may not affect PERM approvals as the department of Labor spending bill has already passed and signed into law. The department is fully funded for the rest of the fiscal year and will remain open if there is a partial shutdown

[jimmys]

I believe there is no bar on filing AOS in both EB2 and EB3 and you can be in both the ques at the same time. If that is the case, why not go for it? I clearly remember a few years ago when the EB3 deluge started, one applicant who had earlier filed in AOS in EB3, then upgraded to EB2 and filed AOS in EB2, he became current in both ques and he was given a choice to choose his que!

I'm not sure if one PERM can be used to have two active I-140s. In case of EB-3 to EB-2, there are two PERMs and two I-140s involved.

[altek001]

The last pending 485 was in July. USCIS did not publish one for until October. Any thoughts if that was put and removed.

Something is really fishy when USCIS does not publish data on time

[altek001]

Let's say in the coming months or sometime this FY, EB3 filing date moves to Oct 2010.

Since my EB2 PD is in Oct 2010, when is the right time to port? i.e. Final or Filing dates move to Oct 2010?

[bikenlalan]

The last pending 485 was in July. USCIS did not publish one for until October. Any thoughts if that was put and removed.

Something is really fishy when USCIS does not publish data on time

Last years PI for October was published mid November. Hopefully they publish it in the next few days.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Last years PI for October was published mid November. Hopefully they publish it in the next few days.

PI stopped being relevant a long time ago. It is just a compilation of fudged numbers.

[AceMan]

PI stopped being relevant a long time ago. It is just a compilation of fudged numbers.

Eb2 I Pending data is very important for people from late 2009 onwards to take decisions. If the numbers have come down from 15K to a lot less then it can give better clarity.

[swordfish380]

Eb2 I Pending data is very important for people from late 2009 onwards to take decisions. If the numbers have come down from 15K to a lot less then it can give better clarity.

If you compare Eb2i January 2017 pending inventory against July
2018 pending inventory numbers , 4400 GCs were issued. So if you take this average in 18 months EB2i will reach July 2009

[AceMan]

If you compare Eb2i January 2017 pending inventory against July
2018 pending inventory numbers , 4400 GCs were issued. So if you take this average in 18 months EB2i will reach July 2009

I don't think that would be an accurate take. January 2017 - August 2017 would be in FY 2017 and they issued 1122 visa's of the 2879 total during that time.

Aug 2017 - July 2017 they issued 3300. We have to see the October pending inventory to see the start of EB2 I for FY 2019.

[swordfish380]

I don't think that would be an accurate take. January 2017 - August 2017 would be in FY 2017 and they issued 1122 visa's of the 2879 total during that time.

Aug 2017 - July 2017 they issued 3300. We have to see the October pending inventory to see the start of EB2 I for FY 2019.

The net result of date movement is reduction in inventory so if you go by that then we will see about 4,400 reduction in 18 months