Predictable pipeline for at least 3 months, at a minimum but for the calendar year, if possible is the driver. Yes, its fair to say at mark below ~700 inventory no longer has a predictable pipeline view to engage workforce and solve for the inventory. So while the March 2009 doesnt mean there is no inventory prior, just the fact that its not enough to go from say 700 to 2000 which will keep my predictability
I have EB3 with PD of Dec 21, 2010. Considering the movement in Dec bulletin for Date of filing by 3 months, Can anyone provide a realistic estimate of when I can expect my PD to be current? Thanks
The Pending Inventory has stopped being a tool to help predictions. It is just a fudged report that does not reflect the real Inventory. But a 2 month jump in EB3 Final Date is significant. By the end of this FY, I expect EB3 Filing Dates to move into 2011 and Final Date to move into 2010 triggering a massive downgrade stampede. So, for EB2 with a PD > June 2009 and current in EB3 would be smart to downgrade to EB3.
Honestly the 2 month fad movement for Eb3 is a pleasant surprise for first quarter. They advanced Fd also to Jan 2010. It gives me hope that Eb3 might get a push forward for the January bulletin. Indicators show they might continue to respect the filing date.
By FY 2019, Eb3 FAD can be May 2010 and FD Jan 2011.
They just don't see any demand for EB3-I in 2008 and early 2009. FAD Mar 1,2009 is starting only in Dec 2018. So they can send I-485 interview notices to the folks and green them in the coming quarters. Already saw several 2008 PD folks got greened in October. Hope they don't waste any visa numbers in EB3.
For EB2 downgrades to accelerate, the EB-3 FAD date has to reach mid 2010. It might happen in FY 2020. CO knew there's no immediate threat of downgrades for Indian nationals. EB-2 and EB-3 FAD dates may stabilize after May 1,2010. Until then EB-3 will roll on. EB-3 FAD may cross Oct 1,2009 in July quarter.
The prolonged FAD for EB-2 dates in 2008/2009 meant many many EB-3 applicants whose PDs were in 2008/2009 ported to EB-2. I knew a handful of people whose EB-3 PDs were in 2008/2009 but they moved to different companies and ported to EB-2.
If you look at closely the recession didn't bring that much approval for EB2-India. It's the Kazarian vs USCIS, and Family SO from previous years' that brought many thousands of SO in FY 11/12. The recession helped less PERMs in 2009. That's all. And the PERM picked up massively after 2011. Even if there's a recession it will be mild one and may not move mountains with EB-India. Just my opinion.
No. What I meant was most folks in EB-2 2009 already filed their I-485. To downgrade they have to file another I-140 and it can't be filed in premium. There is a risk of a RFE to check which job that currently exists. EB-3 or EB-2. It's not that big of an incentive for 2009 folks to go through the hassles.
On another note, there is a slight difference between Chinese and Indians. Chinese tend to stick to the same employer while Indians tend to switch employers a lot more than Chinese. As a result, we have a bunch of Indians who have filed their EB3 I-140 with an ex employer and have their EB2 with their current employer and very few have the leverage with their ex employer to pursue the EB3 AOS.
I believe there is no bar on filing AOS in both EB2 and EB3 and you can be in both the ques at the same time. If that is the case, why not go for it? I clearly remember a few years ago when the EB3 deluge started, one applicant who had earlier filed in AOS in EB3, then upgraded to EB2 and filed AOS in EB2, he became current in both ques and he was given a choice to choose his que!
USCIS is honoring the filing dates for EB categories for December. Good luck to everyone who will be using their original EB3 petitions from May 22nd 2009 to Jan 1 2010 and hope this stabilizes the demand in EB2 INDIA going forward.
https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo
Next Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts
For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for December 2018.
For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for December 2018.
December 2018
The last pending 485 was in July. USCIS did not publish one for until October. Any thoughts if that was put and removed.
Something is really fishy when USCIS does not publish data on time
Let's say in the coming months or sometime this FY, EB3 filing date moves to Oct 2010.
Since my EB2 PD is in Oct 2010, when is the right time to port? i.e. Final or Filing dates move to Oct 2010?
I don't think that would be an accurate take. January 2017 - August 2017 would be in FY 2017 and they issued 1122 visa's of the 2879 total during that time.
Aug 2017 - July 2017 they issued 3300. We have to see the October pending inventory to see the start of EB2 I for FY 2019.
There are currently 5 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 5 guests)