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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #3876
    I was thinking that I would be current by now with EB2I PD of Sep, 2009. What a bummer! I guess not until next October?

  2. #3877
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    Quote Originally Posted by EB2/eb3 View Post
    Thank you spec but the information but the example given on uscis website is very confusing.
    Pending time is calculated as number of days between the date that it is properly filed(filing date) and the approval date and the forumla is
    Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending time
    That is correct, but it also says clearly that they are talking about the petition, not the I-485 application.

    An I-485 is an application for AOS as the beneficiary of an underlying petition.

    For EB1, EB2 and EB3 cases, the petition is an I-140.

    So for the example (changed to reflect EB)

    3. Determining Length of Time Petition Was Pending

    For family and employment-based preference adjustment applicants, the length of time a petition was pending (pending time) is the number of days between the date that it is properly filed (filing date) [23] and the approval date. The formula for determining the length of time the petition was pending is as follows:

    Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending Time

    Example

    The applicant’s employer filed a(n I-140) petition on the applicant’s behalf on February 1, 2016. USCIS approved the (I-140) petition on August 1, 2016.

    August 1, 2016 - February 1, 2016 = 6 months (or 182 days)

    Therefore, the applicant’s (I-140) petition pending time is 6 months (or 182 days).
    This then feeds into the CSPA age calculation as the Pending Time (the pending time is the amount of time it took for the I-140 to be approved):

    2. Child Status Protection Act Age Calculation

    For family (including VAWA) [20] and employment-based preference and DV categories, an adjustment applicant’s CSPA age is calculated by subtracting the number of days the petition was pending (pending time) from the applicant’s age on the date the immigrant visa becomes available to him or her (age at time of visa availability). [21] The formula for calculating CSPA age is as follows:

    Age at time of visa availability - (Petition) Pending Time = CSPA Age

    While an applicant must file an adjustment application or otherwise seek lawful permanent resident status in order to benefit from CSPA, the date the applicant files an adjustment application is not relevant for the CSPA age calculation. [22]

    Example

    The applicant is 21 years and 4 months old when an immigrant visa becomes available to him or her (this is when the FAD becomes current). The applicant’s (I-140) petition was pending for 6 months. The applicant’s CSPA age is calculated as follows:

    21 years and 4 months - 6 months = 20 years and 10 months

    Therefore, the applicant’s CSPA age is under 21.
    I hope that makes it clearer for you.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  3. #3878
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    Yes, it does. Thank you for the clarification Spec

  4. #3879
    Pandit
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    Quote Originally Posted by bloddy1 View Post
    Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.

    EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.

    The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.

    In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.

    In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.
    The issue CO indicated was there's not enough demand for EB-3 till Jan 1,2009. (First 10 months of 2008 has been current for 6 months now) It's pretty obvious that people ported and EB-2 stayed in 2008/2009 for too long. The problem you mentioned only will happen if people start downgrading aggressively. For that has to happen the EB3 FA dates have to pass May 1,2010. Until then EB-3 will sail smooth. I won't be surprised if EB3 FA dates are ahead of EB-2FA in April 2019 itself.

  5. #3880
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    Dear All,

    Need advice for the situation.
    My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
    However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
    I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

    I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
    only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
    However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
    Please advise.
    You can schedule an appointment or visit your closest CBP station. They can extend your I-94 based on your new passport till the PED.

  6. #3881
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    Quote Originally Posted by tatikonda View Post
    Dear All,

    Need advice for the situation.
    My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
    However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
    I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.

    I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
    only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
    However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
    Please advise.
    Email CBP. They will fix this via email it self. I have had 2 situations similar to this and both the times, they fixed I94 within 3 days.

  7. #3882
    Quote Originally Posted by skpanda View Post
    Email CBP. They will fix this via email it self. I have had 2 situations similar to this and both the times, they fixed I94 within 3 days.
    call the nearst CBP office and tell them the story. They shall be able to fix it. NY phone numbers are 718-553-3683 or 718-553-3684

  8. #3883
    Quote Originally Posted by vicks23 View Post
    call the nearst CBP office and tell them the story. They shall be able to fix it. NY phone numbers are 718-553-3683 or 718-553-3684
    Better to go or email them with all the details and attachments. If you go there, take original I-797s and a photocopy of those and passports too.

  9. #3884
    A firm had evinced interest for full time role to proceed with my h1b transfer. They said, that would be fine as 140 is approved. Then, they asked for my country of passport(India) and they balked out. Maybe they considered the h1 renewals as the backlog is huge for India.
    Did anyone had any experience as such?

  10. #3885
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    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2018.html

    EB3-I, filing date moves to Jan 1, 2010!!!!

    Other info:
    EB2-I, filing date: May 22, 2009
    Final action dates: EB2-I: Apr 1, 2009, EB3-I: Mar 1, 2009
    EB1-I final action date jumped more than an year i.e. from Jun 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017
    EB1-I filing date stayed at Oct 1, 2017

  11. #3886
    Quote Originally Posted by Immigo View Post
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...mber-2018.html

    EB3-I, filing date moves to Jan 1, 2010!!!!

    Other info:
    EB2-I, filing date: May 22, 2009
    Final action dates: EB2-I: Apr 1, 2009, EB3-I: Mar 1, 2009
    EB1-I final action date jumped more than an year i.e. from Jun 1, 2016 to July 1, 2017
    EB1-I filing date stayed at Oct 1, 2017
    First, lets hope USCIS respects the FD, Most probably EB3 I filing dates will move faster for next bulletin.

  12. #3887
    Looks like there is no demand in EB3I and somehow CO is trying to keep EB3I dates below EB2I. EB3I might end up with MAY2010 by the end of this year. Any movement is good news for both EB3I and EB2I.

  13. #3888
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Looks like there is no demand in EB3I and somehow CO is trying to keep EB3I dates below EB2I. EB3I might end up with MAY2010 by the end of this year. Any movement is good news for both EB3I and EB2I.

    When you say May2010 would that be Filing Data or Final Action date? Please Clerify

  14. #3889
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    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    Looks like there is no demand in EB3I and somehow CO is trying to keep EB3I dates below EB2I. EB3I might end up with MAY2010 by the end of this year. Any movement is good news for both EB3I and EB2I.
    How can EB2I benefit when it can't get the spillover (other than shifting and refiling in EB3), any spillover will go to EB1?

  15. #3890
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    How can EB2I benefit when it can't get the spillover (other than shifting and refiling in EB3), any spillover will go to EB1?
    You answered your own question. The shifting and re-filing from EB3 would help, if the inventory does not go down, it will at least remain steady.

  16. #3891
    USCIS honored Filing Dates for October and November and EB3I filing dates keeps moving forward. This tells me that there are very few folks left in that category in 2009. 2009 had few filings because of the recession in 2008 and most (like me) who originally waited in 2009 EB3I already ported to EB2I.

    Depending if USCIS does continue to honor filing dates and late 2009 EB2I filers deciding to down port, EB3I dates will continue to move forward and eventually stabilizing with EB2I - similar to what happened with China.

  17. #3892
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    You answered your own question. The shifting and re-filing from EB3 would help, if the inventory does not go down, it will at least remain steady.
    If some EB2 people move out of the EB2 queue into the EB3 queue (via down-port), I guess it would be good for both.

    EB3 will get GC faster and lesser people in EB2 queue.

  18. #3893
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    First, lets hope USCIS respects the FD, Most probably EB3 I filing dates will move faster for next bulletin.
    Hi Aceman, I have my I 140 approved in EB3 with my previous employer and ported to Eb2 with the current employer. Priority date is Dec 23 2009. Both I 140's are valid. I am checking with my Attorney to file in Eb3.

    But I would like to check with you as well. Do you have any inputs on this.

    Thanks

  19. #3894
    Quote Originally Posted by srimurthy View Post
    How can EB2I benefit when it can't get the spillover (other than shifting and refiling in EB3), any spillover will go to EB1?
    The future of Eb2 INDIA is limited movement as mentioned by CO and he estimates it to move only until May 22 2009 per his filing dates where he expects EB2 INDIA to be in 8-12 months which is pretty much the end of this FY. Apart from that if the following scenarios happen things will change

    1) Spillovers of 1000 will clear until June 1st 2009. Spillovers of 3000 will clear until July 2009 and spillovers of 5000 or more will clear Oct\Nov 2009. This is highly unlikely given the EB2 WW and EB1 demand. The EB1 demand can be met if sufficient spillover comes from EB3 and we may get some spillover from EB2 WW this FY if there is govt shutdown in December that will slow down the perm approvals but it may not happen. If a recession is happening then we may see a rapid movement scenarios. I wouldn't count on any of these speculative situations yet.

    2) Forward movement beyond may 22nd 2009 might happen if the downgrades are higher which is highly unlikely as unlike the chinese situation EB2 INDIA folks until May 2010 have their EAD\AP cards and you cannot expect much downgrades like china. Downgrades may happen if an Eb2 Applicant has a EB3 application as well either with the same employer or different employer. However this is only influential after May 22nd 2009 as there is no clear picture of how many cases we have like this after May 22nd 2009 until Jan 1 2010. They may move forward with EB3 but this doesn't change the inventory numbers as i believe those inventory numbers are ppl who filed 485 and are waiting for their GC and doesn't capture these scenarios. Even if there are like 40% of these numbers moving forward with their EB3 application this should take EB2 dates to mid of June 2009 only. The only reason of not able to measure these will make CO decide not to move the EB2 dates beyond May 22nd 2009.

    At this stage we can sit back and pray that we get spillover, shutdown happens and economy slides for us to get a GC but we also have to survive all these said above to apply for GC :-)

  20. #3895
    USCIS does not approve more that 700 Green Cards a quarter for EB3-I (unless it is the last quarter). So I am wondering what to make of the FAD movement to March 1 2009 for EB3-I. Does it mean that there is NO inventory of 700 till Jan 1 2009 and that is the reason for the FAD to move to March 1 2009? Specially, since USCIS is honoring filing dates till Oct 1 2009, what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?


    Some trackitt data:
    ===========

    Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Dec 2008 = 124

    Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to March 1 2009 = 132

    Active primary applications in EB3-I from Sept 2007 to Oct 2009 = 156

  21. #3896
    what is the logic of moving FAD to March 1 2009?

    To help EB1 folks get their spillover for this FY.

  22. #3897
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Depending if USCIS does continue to honor filing dates and late 2009 EB2I filers deciding to down port, EB3I dates will continue to move forward and eventually stabilizing with EB2I - similar to what happened with China.
    I may have a different take on this. We got a 2 month movement for Eb3 I in the first quarter itself. This implies, that demand has to be really low as they had the filing date moved to late 2009 for October bulletin. 45 days of data might indicate the low demand there and CO confident of moving the dates by couple of months in both FAD and FD. EB2 I till May 2010 has solid 15,000 people waiting already with AOS. They are just not going to anywhere. I am expecting EB3 I FAD reach Jan 2010 by April 2019 bulletin.

  23. #3898
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    I may have a different take on this. We got a 2 month movement for Eb3 I in the first quarter itself. This implies, that demand has to be really low as they had the filing date moved to late 2009 for October bulletin. 45 days of data might indicate the low demand there and CO confident of moving the dates by couple of months in both FAD and FD. EB2 I till May 2010 has solid 15,000 people waiting already with AOS. They are just not going to anywhere. I am expecting EB3 I FAD reach Jan 2010 by April 2019 bulletin.
    It makes sense. There is absolutely no need to increase EB2I inventory whereas EB3I really needs a build up. The only question is if EB3I FAD moves ahead of EB2I, then what happens. Right now, there is limited downporting risks given the EB3I FAD is lagging. If it picks up, its will be a game changer.

    Iatiam

  24. #3899
    Though the inventory numbers may not be affected i see beyond may 22 2009 ppl who ported with same employer\different employer using their prior valid EB3 to move forward with AOS. With that said the inventory for April 2019 for EB3 will be interesting to watch as I see the numbers grow in EB3 INDIA inventory grow for Cal Yr 2009 which paves way for EB2 INDIA to move forward for next FY 2020 albeit to only few months again.

  25. #3900
    Quote Originally Posted by gcvijay View Post
    Though the inventory numbers may not be affected i see beyond may 22 2009 ppl who ported with same employer\different employer using their prior valid EB3 to move forward with AOS. With that said the inventory for April 2019 for EB3 will be interesting to watch as I see the numbers grow in EB3 INDIA inventory grow for Cal Yr 2009 which paves way for EB2 INDIA to move forward for next FY 2020 albeit to only few months again.
    May and June 2009 has the highest density close to 1400. If we can get over that hump, things will get easier for rest of 2009. Recession, crackdown on immigration are all gonna help. I am optimistic about EB2I especially till 2009. EB1C restirctions are somehow outweighed by increase in EB1A and EB1B cases. The stock market is already crashing and as the tax cut stimulus wears off, these filings will also come down. I personally believe that EB India has never been in better shape since 2012.

    Iatiam

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