Any predictions for when we might see early July 2009 EB2 becoming current (FD or FA)?Originally Posted by AceMan
Cheers!
Any predictions for when we might see early July 2009 EB2 becoming current (FD or FA)?
Cheers!
Thanks for your response. Are you saying even with SO of lets say 5000 EB2 INDIA will not clear 2009? Where do you think will EB2 INDIA land by end of this FY? May 22nd 2009 per Filing Dates?
I tried posting a qn but seem to have lost it - please help ---- my PD is May 2009 / EB3 I - I had to leave the US and opted for CP / New Delhi.
The Visa bulletin says F/D is Oct 2009 so can i move forward with the process or do I need to absolutely wait for NVC to contact my employer ? - what can I expect in Dec/Jan - how long does it take for an interview request to come up ?
I do not work for that employer anymore since they have no operations in India but they may give me an offer letter - I obviously have 10 more years of experience but the offer letter will probably be having the same salary that was mentioned when the GC was filed - will that be a problem during the consular interview ?
Also - can anyone suggest any threads/sites that shed some light on consular processing experiences - I have been scanning several sites but most of the experiences mentioned are really old - is that because there are very few CP cases (E-based) ?
Thanks much
Based on Spec's numbers, Total PERMs approved for FY2009 EB2 is around 29,502 . I assume these numbers also include EB2-ROW along with EB2-I.
Assuming 17000 would be EB2-ROW then these applications would have already approved and got green card.
I'm missing anything here?
No, the 29502 would be only India. Correction.. It was entire World
India, has got around 10000 AOS cases as per July Pending inventory. 5000 SO + 2804 mandatory numbers in 2019 will not clear all of them. We need 7000 SO for EB2 to have a chance to clear 2009. And another requirement would be no new EB2 petitions to do AOS for 2009.
29,502 is the total number of PERM OFLC approved in FY2009. Of these, 2,112 were China, 11,387 were India and 16,003 were ROW/M/P. This covered PDs from 2005 to 2009. The majority were 2008 PD.
But really, that information is irrelevant. More important are the figures for a PD year, which build up over several FY of approvals.
For CY2009 PD, India has had 16,672 PERM certifications. Straightforward cases were certified mainly in FY2010, then later FY approvals probably represent when Supervised Recruitment, Audit and lastly Appeal cases were finally certified.
ROW demand in FY2019 will probably come from a combination of part FY2018 certifications and part FY2019 certifications, plus NIW cases that don't need PERM.
I had a quick look at all the USCIS Pending I-485 Inventories for EB2 India PD2009. I can identify that nearly 17k cases appear to have been in the Inventory over time and I estimate probably another couple of k that didn't appear due to the net monthly total reducing. But that's just a quick look by me
All these different figures from everybody just point to the difficulty of the task to estimate from solid PERM data to I-485 numbers. There's too many factors which have to be guessed at because there is no solid information available. Even the USCIS Inventory only shows part of the picture even if the data were high quality. I don't think it ever has shown total numbers. And, of course, it doesn't include any cases that were Consular Processed.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
What's your rationale for thinking there would be 5k spillover for EB2-I in FY2019?
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Trackitt I-485 pending applications for EB2 India from Jan-2008 to July-2010 is 2630, which is 15,826 pending application as per USCIS latest data, which is 6 multiplier.
Same for EB3 India is 121, with 6 multiplier , it would be 726 applications so far till Sep-2009, even we take 10 multiplier , it not crossing 3K, regular annual quota.
This is just for an idea, on the latest EB3 I-485 filings trend.
Just an assumption spec. Someone was pointing ROW perms were lower and that may contribute some spillover but not sure 5k is possible
So from your 17k perm of 2009 if we multiply by 1.5 for dependents and minus the 485's approved since 2009 till date for PD 2009 and minus the EB3 downgrades can we say we have approx not 11k per inventory but the next pending inventory should have unusually higher numbers listed?
Q3 2018 USCIS 485 Numbers are Out.
34365 --485 Applications were Approved and 11055 were approved at Service Centers, and 23310 were approved at field centers.
During Q3 EB1 had a cuttoff date, and, EB2 China and EB3 India moved upto and year, most of these applications approved at service centers. Pending cases at service center were down from 155k to 78k which were down by 50%. If similar pattern continues for FY2019, then there is good chances for EB1 India and EB2 India dates moving at the end of the year.
Out of 78K pending 485 at service center, EB1 India is around 4k and 16K from EB2 India.
There's still a huge disconnect between the 76,868 Employment I-485 pending reported at Service Centers (with zero shown at NBC) in the Q3 Adjustment of Status (Form I-485 Application) Report (149,179 at SC & FO) and the July Employment Inventory Report figure of 29,471 for Service Centers.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
One more interesting data point I noticed was 485 rejections, they went up by 90% when compared with Q3 2017.
Q3 2017 rejections are 1705
Q3 2018 rejections are 3250
Overall 485 rejections were up for this year. 2018 Rejections up to Q3 period are 7987, for whole 2017 year 485 Rejections are 7345.
hi
what is the chance for Jan 2010 in EB2 or EB3 in Dec's filing date?
Any prediction when Date of Filling will reach Jan 2010?
Dear All,
Need advice for the situation.
My H1-B was approved until March 15th, 2021.
However, during the port entry, I was given I-94 only until Feb 16th 2019 as my passport was valid only until Feb 16th 2019.
I renewed my passport and received new passport. I would like to extend my I-94.
I was told by my company lawyer that, since I am not having any international travel plans before my i-94 expires,
only way to extend the I-94 cards is to file for an I-94 extension with USCIS.
However, I don't see any forms for I-94 extension for H1B Holder. I see that I-539 form but in H VISA, I see only H4.
Please advise.
Is there a definitive inventory and break down for Eb2/Eb3- India for Service Center and Field Offices? Trying to get into the mindset where, if you want to know exactly the inventory and appropriately staff agent workforce, you want very good predictability around - num. of adjudicated cases, when is inventory going to hit for adjudication/Final action and the availability of numbers (regular, SOFAD, political indeterminate etc., ). Its is of smaller impact & consequence to be adjudicated than to provide final action, so one has more freedom to move adjudication date and get extremely good predictability but basically don't care too much on end user experience, so CO will hold-on moving FA dates.
EB2 is in that stage for predictability, not EB3.
The significance, of both recent AILA commentary and why CO will be slow in moving FA dates for EB3, is that, once EB3-FA significantly goes ahead of EB2-FA the predictability is thrown to the wind. While there is a big incentive for backlogged individual to downgrade to EB3 and go thru enormous paperwork if and only if EB3-FA goes where EB2-FA has not gone before, but just moving Filing dates isnt going to entice people to crossover.
In conclusion, and stating the obvious, EB3 Filing Date is going to surpass the best EB2 ever was but Final will likely never go way beyond (2-3 months) EB2FA. Just because CO can justify Eb3 is of poorer quality, so I would rather spillover to EB1 and still be OK. There is no law prohibiting.
In totality, its a zero sum game EB2 vs. EB3, so as much as we care about EB3 numbers are going to be under allocated, look at the last few years, EB3 has been going to waste with minimal to none consequence. One may argue the case of China EB3 but look closer, it never is more than 2-3 months ahead. Don't hang your hats onto sailing EB3 winds!! Rather, look at cumulatively, how it will help and move both EB2/3 numbers in tandem and quite frankly, there will be no difference, once inventory is built-up.
Luckily, there is a thing called CBP local office which can potentially do the correction. My wife was in a similar situation (but without the passport complexity), our lawyer suggested we go to the local CBP office and get it corrected. They will re-issue a new I-94. There is usually a local CBP office close to a border or an airport you reside at. Do run this by your attorney, no harm in trying though.
Just curious at what stage, candidate will know about the rejection?
1.Will candidates EAD be rejected?
2.After getting EAD, Based on Interview ,can one be rejected?
It is plausible, though we have to see the next few bulletins to really see if this theory has any traction. The visas Eb3 lost are always around 2000-3000. We are still in the first quarter of FY19. Eb3 has the potential to go all the way up to May 2010, without having to worry much about original Eb2 filers. The Eb2 guys who will try to downport would be mostly prior porters who already had an Eb3 petition before.
EB2I is not going to move much this year bro. All those who are hoping for any SO, need to cool their heels and expectations! Next year maybe better year to speculate.
Spec, is it true that child’s age will not freeze when filed using Filing date? If so, will it freeze automatically when FAD is current?
Please correct me if not right, Yes. But, the age will freeze only if the FAD occurs before the child reaches 21 years old.
Unfortunately, yes, that is true. USCIS has chosen to make that interpretation because that is when they believe a visa becomes "immediately available".
USCIS argue that the Filing Date submission only satisfies the "sought to acquire" condition.
Also, to be clear, it's before the child's CSPA Age reaches 21, which in turn depends on how long it took to approve the I-140 petition.
Yes, it will freeze when the FAD becomes current on the first day of the VB month.
You can find confirmation in the Policy Manual or more concisely here, where it states:
Here's an article about it.CSPA for Family and Employment Preference and Diversity Visa Immigrants
.
.
Age at Time of Visa Availability
The date the visa is considered available is the later of these two dates:
The date the petition was approved; or
The first day of the month of the Department of State Visa Bulletin that indicates that a visa is available for you in the Final Action Dates chart.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thank you spec but the information but the example given on uscis website is very confusing.
Pending time is calculated as number of days between the date that it is properly filed(filing date) and the approval date and the forumla is
Approval Date - Filing Date = Pending time
Makes perfect sense on why CO is not moving eb3 dates aggressively. Based on this, where do u think eb3 fad might end up by end of the FY?
There are currently 5 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 5 guests)
Posting Permissions
