In 2009, as per July PD we had 10 K remaining in EB2. If in Oct PD, this number went down to 9000. We have standard 2900 for FY 19, we need a SO of around 6000 to clear 2009. Looking at the PERM numbers for ROW 17/18, I don't think it is an impossible ask. During the same time, if CO's predictions are true for EB3, lot of dual filers might use EB3 to do AOS.
Originally Posted by AceMan
What is dual filers
Is it EB2 to EB3 or vice versa??
People with multiple PERMS. For eg: A person who filed for EB3 in OCT 2009, may have ported to EB2 in 2014 without doing AOS. If EB3 moves forward, he might be able to utilize that instead of his EB2 petition for filing 485.
Aceman - Did you mean PI instead of PD ?
Also do you mean EB2 ROW numbers ?
Pending Inventory :-). EB2 I pending data for 2009 is 10382 as per July PI. I am expecting this number to ballpark around 9000 in the OCT PI.
Unless they are with the same employer in 2009, 2014 and as of now.
If they jumped the employer then there are a lot of if's else etc
I hope I understood correctly!!
Just out of curiosity why would these numbers not have any effect on green card applications year after year -
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...rth-fy2018.pdf
If 90% of H1B are from I + C, then where are the 140K GC apps coming from year after year.
Can some one please provide rough estimate on my case? I have an EB2 PD of Jan2010, without EAD, as I ported from EB3 with the same employer. When do you think my PD will become current either through EB3 or EB2? If EB3 FD moves past Jan 2010, should I make use of that to file for EAD/AP or wait for EB2 to file for EAD? Many thanks for your inputs.
That's interesting, especially demand destruction would make sense not because folks abandoned their petitions but just look in the mirror to see, how many are actually holding the same job they had when they first filed their petitions?
Not sure about the percentage but concentration between May 2009 and May 2010 is pretty strong (myself included) so 3 years is realistic. I'm banking on EB3 providing a second wind to sail to a GC.
What would be the source for demand destruction to happen and where would it happen EB2-I or EB3-I? And the source would be Spill over from EB2-ROW & EB3-ROW or EB3-I?
Dont agree with that - people would port the priority date even if they move the job. Also people leaving the country can still be in the line with Consular processing.
Only ones are those where there are duplicate filings (not as many I think), people leaving and employer abandoning the application and spouse filings. All these would not be 40% IMO.
Technically people can be sponsored even when they are not in US, or when they are on student visas. That would cover large number of EB1, 4 & 5 cases.
Doesn't usually happen in EB2 and 3 - thats why we get spillovers. Though I am not sure where EB2 ROW demand is coming from.
Also there are L1 visas too.
That may be true but it is always good to downgrade with the same employer. More over not all employers are agreeing to file in both eb3 and eb2. My employer said what if there are queries from uscis asking why downgrade same candidate. This impacts company's reputation and other cases going fwd etc etc
If you account all of these parameters you can negate 30-40% off your 44K PI. so narrowing down to 26K ball parking is estimated right. Also, EB3 I Filing dates would race ahead into mid 2011 by end of CY 2019 and then choke down.
Just a guesstimate!!
This would be similar to my guess earlier where I am expecting about 8500 primaries (both 2 and 3) for 2009 + the 1 dependent each + 9000 remaining in EB2 with AOS.
Gents — Are there any indicative data pointing to potential lateral SO from EB2 ROW to EB2 I? My PD is in early July 2009, and can’t quite get a sense for when I might become current. I see that there are over 5000 applicants ahead of my PD per July 2018 I-485 Inventory. Plus maybe an addition 2k AOS folks. Without SO, my PD ain’t becoming current for a couple of years, I reckon. Would love to hear your thoughts.
Cheers!
The comparison is not correct, you are comparing backlog numbers of India and China Vs regular H1 numbers for RoW.
Usually , out of 85K H1 per year, I &C share ~50-55%, Row is ~ 40-45%, which is ~40K H1B petitions for RoW.
This is only for primary applicants on H1B , if you include Family/Dependents, the count goes over double ~80K for GC, which is per person.
So technically, Row can take all 80K GC of EB2 & Eb3, with regular quota, without any spill over to I/C.
USCIS numbers are correct, I&C is 90% of 400K (This is mostly backlogs/extn and new), for Row its mostly new petitions , which is 10% of 400K, ~40K, which is inline with above numbers.
The India H1B pool is growing ~ 40-50K per year, from last 10 years, we have ~400K total. Need at least 600K-800K Green cards, to become current as of now.
India H1B pool is snow ball, the number keep growing year by year, generating huge mass, with limited GCs.
The point you make is a good one, but your percentages are a bit wide of the mark.
In the FY2017 Characteristics of H-1B Specialty Occupation Workers report (the last one published) it shows 108,101 petitions approved in FY2017 for Initial Employment. This figure will include those for Cap-Exempt Employers which are outside the lottery.
Of these, 67,815 were for India (62.7%) and 15,165 were for China (14.0%). The next highest was Canada, with 2,226 (2.1%).
So rather than the India and China share being in the 50-55% range, it was 76.7% and was 76.5% in FY2016.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks S for the correction, as an old timer, I still thinking 50-55%, surprise to see it is going above 75%, soon it may reach 100%
I have provided info to have rough idea, there are many variables, like number of dependents , a small ratio change would impact heavily.
The best source is PERM data, as from FACT section, we can see 31K in 2017, and 41K in 2018 PERMs processed for Row. This can translate in 60K-80K GC application for family/dependents.
H1 is main source, but not only source, we can see H2 applicants also filing for GC in EB3/Eb2 (Landscaping, meat processing, etc).
Soon USCIS has to deny close to 100K every year (denials = new quota per year) for I&C.
Otherwise this pool grows so big, USCIS has to double/triple their staff to process extns and change of employment petitions for I&C.
Wouldn't that mean that we have around 17K both EB2 and Eb3 for entire 2009 and if we make a split that will sure leave EB2 INDIA numbers close to 11 to 12 K which with yearly quota 2800 and a estimated SO of 5000 should take EB2 INDIA dates to mid\later 2009 and not clear entire 2009?
Also on a different note, is there a reason why CO put May 22nd 2009 as filing dates for EB2 INDIA? Is he not considering spillovers while establishing EB2 INDIA filing dates?
Here is the 2018 September DOS data.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 00 00 00 00 00 00 08 08 EB2 02 06 00 01 00 00 01 10 EB3 017 003 007 242 09 06 049 333 EB4 003 000 000 000 000 001 095 099 EB5 379 046 000 000 025 000 119 569 Total 401 055 007 243 034 007 272 1019
2018 Year DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total EB1 1457 0183 0074 0012 0281 0018 1829 3854 EB2 0091 0075 0042 0371 1149 0032 1359 3119 EB3 0526 0747 0224 4969 0455 0099 3727 10747 EB4 039 188 005 057 036 042 1451 1818 EB5 4161 0394 0066 0012 0463 0658 2053 7807 Total 6274 1587 0411 5421 2384 0849 10419 27345
2018 Year DOS Data total.
China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total FB 12245 15593 28120 14826 140857 211641 EB 6274 1587 0411 5421 13652 27345 Total 18519 17180 28531 20247 154509 238986
hello - my pd is May 2009 eb3 I and I am in India and selected CP / New Delhi - I am no longer with the employer as they have no operations here - however I may be able to get an offer letter from them to rejoin if GC is approved, as I am in the same industry but picked up 10 years of experience since.
couple of qns - mucho appreciate responses
Can I get my docs together and apply for CP or do I absolutely need to await a word from NVC to my employer ? -- the bulletin says dates for filing is Oct 2009 so am I good to go ?
How long would it possibly take to get an interview call ?
The salary would possibly be the same as what it was when it was filed despite my experience, if they give me the offer letter - will that be a problem ?
Any pointers or threads to help me understand CP better - please guide - thanks again
17000 will be in addition to the 9000-10000 already present in the EB2 I with AOS. Also lot of 2008 EB3 I still clearing in FY 19. EB2 very difficult to clear 2009 in FY 19. If they continue to respect the filing date, we might see EB3- 2010 with EAD's. December/January bulletins very important for EB3 I, to determine what is in store for FY 19.
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