Originally Posted by march1612
I believe they are talking about Final Action dates as Filing dates are temporary, it can move into early 2011 and then won't move subsequent 18 months
I believe they are talking about Final Action dates as Filing dates are temporary, it can move into early 2011 and then won't move subsequent 18 months
CO has always been like that, never being clear about what he says. He cannot rely on USCIS honoring the filing date, so he would have to move the Final date to be Oct 2009 so as to generate demand sufficient to soak up the SO. I think there lies the rub. In Dec VB he will push the Filing Date into 2010 and see if USCIS honors the date. If USCIS does not honor the date in Dec VB, then he will push the Final date in Jan VB out into 2010. In Dec VB, he will push the Final date to be close or equal to EB2. So, that pretty much should interpret what he said.
I don’t think he will move FAD until the 3rd quarter.
He is talking about FAD. For the last 10 months his observations has been pretty accurate, compared to the past. The biggest variance was his outlook for FY 2018 where he predicted several weeks movement for EB3 in August/September 2017, which in reality was 0 for first 3 months, followed by a week, 2 weeks and a month for Jan/feb/mar 2018 bulletin. He advanced it by 13 mont hs for April 2018 bulletin, but with the interview mandate, it turned out to be a little too late for all those people to get cleared in FY 2018.
If the process is getting stream lined as many feel, then we are looking at 4-5 months for a clean petition without RFE's. USCIS in their twitter has given backlogged reduction also as priority. However every body was looking only at H1 and H4 news, might have missed this part under Adjustment of Status improvements.
I still have trouble understanding the new memo released by USCIS about I-693 medical forms.
My question and confusion is specific to those who have applied their 485's in March 2012 and have not received any RFE from USCIS.
Based on new USCIS memo, is I-693 form submitted in March 2012 still valid (OR) Should we expect an RFE from USCIS when the dates are current?
Are you saying EB2-I and EB3-I Final action dates would be early 2010 if Filing dates are not honored by USCIS?
Question on the pending inventory as of July 2018; Does it already account for dependents filings as well? I assumed it would but not a 100% sure.
Can anyone shed some light?
Yes, the Pending inventory accounts the primary and the dependent filings waiting for Visa number.
I-693 Forms Submitted in 2012 are certainly not valid now. The only question is if you submitted the forms over the last 2 months will that be valid for 1 year or 2 years ?
Eb2I has 10000 waiting from 2009. Limited chance for it to reach 2010 Pd this December. Eb3 however might get up to April 2010 either in December or January bulletin.
Is the right time to ask about 2011 dates when it can be current... its been long time since 2012 movement...I am looking for it from last 5 years
Aceman - you have become too optimistic. Maybe the desire of what you want to happen is clouding your rational and calculative mind
Optimistic, always !!! Too optimistic... nah, I don't think so. April 2010 for EB3 I is a very rational inference of CO's comments. His comments came after seeing about 45 days of EB3 I filing till OCT 09.Aceman - you have become too optimistic. Maybe the desire of what you want to happen is clouding your rational and calculative mind
I am not seeing any big influx from EB2 with an EAD, trying to jump into EB3 queue which he was expecting.
The PERM numbers for 2009 was around 11 K for India. I am inclined to infer that EB3 I 2009 would be very thin in demand as EB2 2009 had cleared 4000 odd in 2014 and we had about 12 K for 2009 as in 2017 August data. These were the numbers I used to deduce that EB3 FD should reach April 2010 in Dec or Jan bulletin.
45 days? It’s only 20 days of filings he witnessed when he made that comment. Will be happy if he moves eb3 filing dates by a month or 2 in December
My bad, I meant to say he will have about 45 days of data to decide dates for Dec 2018.
hi AceMan
Are you reffering EB3 Final date or Filing date that move to 2010 in Dec visa bulletin?
Not sure if there is a place for voting within this forum or if someone projected the the percentage of EB2 reduction and moving forward at a faster clip, even if 20% of folks awaiting FA downgrade to EB2?
At current clip, there is high likelihood of EB3 FA moving to May09 in Jan'19 and if no-one down-ports, continue to Oct-09 in Apr-19, Jan'10 in Jun-19 while EB2 FA stays Apr'09 and May'09 in the same timeframe. However, the story will shift if even-20-30% folks downgrade.
In this likelihood of EB3 Final Action moving significantly i.e., Final Action 3-months ahead of EB2 by Apr 19, How many would realistically downgrade their applications to get a Final Action? Because downgrade PLUS any potential spillover would have a tremendous impact and under cut the EB2 inventory so it moves ahead at faster clip?
Hi Aceman,
Thank you for your words wisdom. I follow you on Trackitt and appreciate your work.
I have a few questions, please give me your 2 cents whenever you can.
I have EB2 with PD of late July 2010 with my current employer and both EB2 and EB3 with previous employer. My current employer is a big US staffing provider. My previous employer is a small vendor. Now based on your prediction, how should I strategize my next steps:
1. When EB3 FAD moves to April 2010, how much will the FD (filing date) move?
2. How much the FD for EB2 will move
3. What should I do when my EB3 PD becomes current? should I convince my existing employer to file I140 in EB3 and file for I-485 concurrently (is it possible? as of now, my research indicates that it is possible - although I am not sure about the concurrent part).
4. Or if the current employer does not agree to downgrade from EB3 to EB2, shall I then just get it done from my previous employer (he is willing to support). Although I am not sure about the supplement J stuff - do I need to show the project/end client support? Are there any risks in this option?
5. OR shall wait for EB2 to be current?
Please let me know. Appreciate your help. Thanks so much.
One can find a reasonable answer by looking at the amount of "upgrades" from EB3->EB2 for those folks with a EB3-I PD of before Aug 2007 and had a EAD. It is fair to say that, more than 50% did not "upgrade". (You can get a more accurate number by looking at historic 485 inventory and amount of approvals in a year). They most often only "upgraded" after a job change. But people in EB3-I after Aug 2007 seem to have "upgraded" massively to EB2-I as they did not have a EAD. I think we will see something similar here too. That is, people in EB2-I with PD from May 2010 will "downgrade" enmasse. But people in EB2-I who already have a EAD will take a "wait and watch" approach.In this likelihood of EB3 Final Action moving significantly i.e., Final Action 3-months ahead of EB2 by Apr 19, How many would realistically downgrade their applications to get a Final Action? Because downgrade PLUS any potential spillover would have a tremendous impact and under cut the EB2 inventory so it moves ahead at faster clip?
I don’t think he will move eb3 FADs that aggressively. fad movement depends on SO, so he will not move it till April 2019
It's true that PERM certifications for India by OFLC in FY2009 were around 11k (11,387).
Only 8 of those related to a PD of 2009 (based on A number).
The majority of PD2009 certifications were made in FY2010 because processing times were so long at that time (more than 1 year, with a backlog of 65k+ cases).
So far, there have been 16,672 certifications for India with a probable 2009 PD.
This was by far the lightest year and has increased steadily, particularly since August 2010. PD2017 currently stands at 52,828.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
While I agree April'19 timeframe is when there will be significant movement to both gauge the new dates accumulation as well as smoothen inflow impact, not sure if SO is required, if were to consider expending 2019 EB3 GC's or at least plan for it to be 'in queue' before June/July of 2019 so they are NOT unused.
Please make sure your former employer is open to the idea of filing 485 for your EB3 petition. This would be your backup plan. Set this correctly first. He might insist on you coming back to him on H1, but make that decision only after seeing the December bulletin.
Thanks Spec for that info. So when we see 28k certified for 2010, majority would be 2009 PD if My inference is reasonable. As I mentioned earlier my Labor of February 2011 was approved by about 3 weeks. Where do I see how many 2010 Pd’s got certified in 2011?
You'll find the figures in the FACTS & DATA section.
Figures by PD and FY are here.
Monthly numbers for each PD year for India are here.
The figures have recently been updated with the full FY2018 data from OFLC.
The PD 2010 breakdown is as follows
PD ------ FY2010 -- FY2011 -- FY2012 -- FY2013 -- FY2014 -- FY2015 -- FY2016 -- FY2017 -- FY2018 --- Total
2010 ----- 9,157 -- 12,958 ----- 183 ------ 15 ------ 14 ------- 9 ------ 18 ------- 7 ------- 1 -- 22,362
Breakdown for FY2010
PD ------- No.
2005 ------- 1
2006 ------ 11
2007 --- 1,005
2008 --- 3,702
2009 -- 15,054
2010 --- 9,157
Total - 28,930
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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