EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

I meant EB2 inventory till end of 2009 will be exhausted. July 2018 inventory shows about 9,500 pending applications from April 2009 to December 2009 and there will be a lot more people who have not been able to file for AoS. My assumption is that these people would chose to file in EB3 given it's movement thus keeping the inventory from increasing. Spec's tables point out historically high PERM approval rates. At some point this should come down and the immigration enforcement and potential for a recession next year should hopefully give enough spillover to clear those cases. Also note that May and June 2009 has comparatively high inventory rates and after that the 2009 recession reduced the PERM rates. So once we get over the May-June bump the dates will move faster.

I can't make educated guesses about EB3 until an inventory is released.

Iatiam

For EB2 I to clear the 9500 numbers, it needs a horizontal spill of 7000 from EB2-ROW as we are going to get nothing vertical looking at the demand for EB1. You will also have to factor in filers from May 2009 - August 2009 who got Eb2 petition who missed the 2012 AOS bus, and not willing/unable to do the EB3 downgrade route.

EB3 I only clue we have is 55 K primaries with approved I-140 till early 2018 from 2007, with no information of this yearly splits this number is rendered useless.

[AceMan]

My grudge is my employer’s attorney never informed that there is premium processing for filing I-140 petition- so I should have been in January 2009 if I knew the wait is this long- I would have happily spent the fee for PP. now I am in September 2009

Hold on, is it date of filing considered as your PD? My -140 was approved in August or September 2011, but the date on the top is Feb 21, 2011

[texas_]

For EB2 I to clear the 9500 numbers, it needs a horizontal spill of 7000 from EB2-ROW as we are going to get nothing vertical looking at the demand for EB1. You will also have to factor in filers from May 2009 - August 2009 who got Eb2 petition who missed the 2012 AOS bus, and not willing/unable to do the EB3 downgrade route.

EB3 I only clue we have is 55 K primaries with approved I-140 till early 2018 from 2007, with no information of this yearly splits this number is rendered useless.

Simply divide it by number of years would give you a ball park numbers

[march1612]

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.

Can we expect an increase in EB2-I 2009 inventory with USCIS considering to use Filing dates?

[excalibur123]

Can we expect an increase in EB2-I 2009 inventory with USCIS considering to use Filing dates?

Yes the inventory would go up - People who failed to file AOS and who now have new dependents to file for.

Also Apr & May EB3 to EB2 porters who could not do AOS yet may choose EB2.

[AceMan]

Simply divide it by number of years would give you a ball park numbers

It would give a grossly inaccurate number, reason being the EB3 filing from 2012 -2017 literally would be less. And again those are primaries only, with a calculation of dependents provided below.

Also this list got the people who upgraded to EB2 earlier with 2008 PD as they would have dropped off, but still showing up in EB3 - inventory.

That might be my reasoning/excuse why EB3 I did not move forward after 1 Jan 2009. My next hope is January bulletin. I am seeing April/May 2018 filers getting interviews and few are getting greened too.

[shekhar_kuruk]

Hold on, is it date of filing considered as your PD? My -140 was approved in August or September 2011, but the date on the top is Feb 21, 2011

Your priority date is your PERM approval date, nothing to do with your I-140 approval time.

[shekhar_kuruk]

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.

Agreed. I would say realistically it may only hit June-July 2009. I would be lucky to get greened this year, but again we may only see approvals till May 15th 2009.

[march1612]

Yes the inventory would go up - People who failed to file AOS and who now have new dependents to file for.

Also Apr & May EB3 to EB2 porters who could not do AOS yet may choose EB2.

How much would that Inventory be? Another 5000?

Also, did you mean porters from EB3 to EB2 would choose EB3?

[bikenlalan]

Your priority date is your PERM approval date, nothing to do with your I-140 approval time.

The priority date is the day your PERM is filed and not your PERM approval date.

[iatiam]

Agreed. I would say realistically it may only hit June-July 2009. I would be lucky to get greened this year, but again we may only see approvals till May 15th 2009.

Till May 15th there are about 1,500 cases. You can chose to be pessimistic but don't be more pessimistic than the worst case scenario.

Iatiam

[iatiam]

Increase in EB2 inventory will be limited by EB3 movement. Why would someone choose EB2 knowing very well that EB3 will move forward.

[canada]

Hold on, is it date of filing considered as your PD? My -140 was approved in August or September 2011, but the date on the top is Feb 21, 2011

My date of filing was January 2009 but my priority date is August 2009

It even mentioned on the top row- Priority date in bold letters-August 2009

[delguy]

My date of filing was January 2009 but my priority date is August 2009

It even mentioned on the top row- Priority date in bold letters-August 2009

PD is determined by your PERM filing date and has nothing to do with I-140. Seems the I-140 adjudicating officer made a mistake that your attorney should have caught and asked uscis for correction.

[dhakaldoo]

My date of filing was January 2009 but my priority date is August 2009

It even mentioned on the top row- Priority date in bold letters-August 2009

The Priority date is the day your Labor is filed. Not the day your i-140 is approved. It has got nothing to do with premium processing.
First your Perm is approved and then you can file for i-140.

It only affects you if your dates are current and you miss the boat for filing i485 since your i140 was not approved.

[canada]

I have receipt notice, priority date and notice date on my immigration approval notice.

[excalibur123]

How much would that Inventory be? Another 5000?

Also, did you mean porters from EB3 to EB2 would choose EB3?

Not that many - I would say about 1.5K.

[excalibur123]

Increase in EB2 inventory will be limited by EB3 movement. Why would someone choose EB2 knowing very well that EB3 will move forward.

If they have difficulties or other reasons to be unable to go back to EB3 employer.

[GCEB420]

I think you should rather be asking why it went down to 1.7k for several reports, since that was non-nonsensical.

Here's the history of EB2-I 2010 since October 2014:

Oct-14 --- 4,811
Jan-15 --- 4,801
Apr-15 --- 4,779
Jul-15 --- 4,769
Oct-15 --- 4,768
Jan-16 --- 4,761
Apr-16 --- 4,728
Oct-16 --- 4,787
Jan-17 --- 4,748
Apr-17 --- 1,770
Aug-17 --- 4,725
Oct-17 --- 1,763
Jan-18 --- 1,754
Apr-18 --- 1,754
Jul-18 --- 4,677

thank you Spec!! with 55,000 eb3 I-140's. Do you expect EB-3 India to jump years?

[GCEB420]

thank you Spec!! with 55,000 eb3 I-140's. Do you expect EB-3 India to jump years?

Also the total inventory is listed at 29,000. Do you think that is right ?

[march1612]

thank you Spec!! with 55,000 eb3 I-140's. Do you expect EB-3 India to jump years?

This is really good data from Spec. Is there a way we could get the numbers broken by Priority dates?

[GCEB420]

This is really good data from Spec. Is there a way we could get the numbers broken by Priority dates?

I'm talking about the below published number.

Attachment 1396

[texas_]

I'm talking about the below published number.

Attachment 1396

When eb3 moves eb 2 India would also push fwd but not significantly

[march1612]

I'm talking about the below published number.

Attachment 1396

EB2-I would also contain those who have I 140 approved both in EB2 and EB3.

Also, EB3-India numbers does not seems to right unless everyone has applied in EB2-I. If the EB3 numbers are true then EB3-India is up for a big leap.

[AceMan]

The priority date is the day your PERM is filed and not your PERM approval date.

Yes you are correct. I recall, I was told that my Perm was approved in about 3 weeks. Attorney was commenting it was fast. 140 was filed next month got an RFE in June, Rfer July end and the petition was approved within a week of response.