EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

I would agree with you, but I expect EB3I filing date to jump into 2010 sometime soon. It should be before April VB though, because it takes a minimum of 6 months to approve those applications.

I don't think filing date would move even in December. Once the first quarter is done, even if the filing dates jump to 2010, we are dependent on the condition that USCIS respecting it. Never since the filing date concept was introduced, USCIS accepted FD after 1st quarter. EB3 I 2008 dates getting GC is still showing a handful of people only.

[AceMan]

Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?

That's a long way out at this point. The projections say EB3 I FAD can pass EB2 I by around 2nd quarter of FY 2019. At that point of time, CO will assess the demand for ROW in both EB 2 and 3, and if he sees the band width to do a big forward movement for EB3. Once that happens, you will start seeing people with both EB2 and 3 petitions utilizing their older petition to get the AOS which can reduce future movements.

So to answer your question EB3I reaching October 2010 in FY 2020, very high probability.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?

My short answer would be - yes.

[Ind2009]

USCIS just confirmed they will be using the filing date for Nov 2018.
So this gives one more month for individuals who are trying to get their paperwork together.

[excalibur123]

Do you think EB3 I filing date would jump to October 2010 in FY 2020?

No way that would happen. People see big jumps as they happened for EB3 and draw wrong conclusions. If you look carefully big jumps happened in EB3 along with a crawl in EB2 - because of porting from EB3 to EB2.

Now one should expect the reverse - downporting would make EB3 crawl. This would happen as soon as EB3 FAD start nearing EB2 FAD.

In my view EB3 filing dates would be remain at end 2009 / early 2010 for a very long time to come. I can prove this with numbers but that's for another time.

[GCEB420]

hello all, Looking at the eb2 pending inventory for India from Jan 2010 to April 2010. 1700 jumped to 4700 between April 2018 inventory and October 2018 inventory ? how is this possible ?

[texas_]

No way that would happen. People see big jumps as they happened for EB3 and draw wrong conclusions. If you look carefully big jumps happened in EB3 along with a crawl in EB2 - because of porting from EB3 to EB2.

Now one should expect the reverse - downporting would make EB3 crawl. This would happen as soon as EB3 FAD start nearing EB2 FAD.

In my view EB3 filing dates would be remain at end 2009 / early 2010 for a very long time to come. I can prove this with numbers but that's for another time.

Look at the Inventory only 473 pending as of July 2018. Also, EB2 I whoever has EAD won't jump in so minus out 90% of EB2 off your numbers till April 2010 PD.

EB3 I might move aggressively but eventually slow down by hitting early to mid 2011

[AceMan]

Look at the Inventory only 473 pending as of July 2018. Also, EB2 I whoever has EAD won't jump in so minus out 90% of EB2 off your numbers till April 2010 PD.

EB3 I might move aggressively but eventually slow down by hitting early to mid 2011

This 473 does not include the petitions at FO. The future demand data's are only useful to gauge how the EB2 numbers are going down as long as they are not including FO data in there. I have an early 2011 PD in EB3 and I realistically expect to be current by mid FY 2020.

[Dondraper]

This 473 does not include the petitions at FO. The future demand data's are only useful to gauge how the EB2 numbers are going down as long as they are not including FO data in there. I have an early 2011 PD in EB3 and I realistically expect to be current by mid FY 2020.

Looks like what happened with China PD's in 2011-2012 is going to happen .EB2 will now start reverse porting and clog EB3. Eb2 & 3 India should move together at snails pace before the next recession. This is prevent the porters jumping to the faster ship. Hopefully they will clog the EB1 abuse by body shoppers to allow some overflow to EB2

[EB2/eb3]

Looks like what happened with China PD's in 2011-2012 is going to happen .EB2 will now start reverse porting and clog EB3. Eb2 & 3 India should move together at snails pace before the next recession. This is prevent the porters jumping to the faster ship. Hopefully they will clog the EB1 abuse by body shoppers to allow some overflow to EB2

I wish they change the SO rule to apply to most backlogged country’s most backlogged category, this will stop all portings and EB1 abuse as well.

[Spectator]

hello all, Looking at the eb2 pending inventory for India from Jan 2010 to April 2010. 1700 jumped to 4700 between April 2018 inventory and October 2018 inventory ? how is this possible ?

I think you should rather be asking why it went down to 1.7k for several reports, since that was non-nonsensical.

Here's the history of EB2-I 2010 since October 2014:

Oct-14 --- 4,811
Jan-15 --- 4,801
Apr-15 --- 4,779
Jul-15 --- 4,769
Oct-15 --- 4,768
Jan-16 --- 4,761
Apr-16 --- 4,728
Oct-16 --- 4,787
Jan-17 --- 4,748
Apr-17 --- 1,770
Aug-17 --- 4,725
Oct-17 --- 1,763
Jan-18 --- 1,754
Apr-18 --- 1,754
Jul-18 --- 4,677

[canada]

Looks like nobody answered my question

with my priority date in August, 2009, EB2 - India, am I looking at 2021 to be just current with just 2 months movement in a year?

I will prepare myself psychologically rather than look forward to in 2019.

Is it possible to be current by 2019 at all.Thanks

[rocketfast]

Looks like nobody answered my question

with my priority date in August, 2009, EB2 - India, am I looking at 2021 to be just current with just 2 months movement in a year?

I will prepare myself psychologically rather than look forward to in 2019.

Is it possible to be current by 2019 at all.Thanks

The demand inventory in EB2-I between March 2009 to August 2009 is ~5800. EB2I should get a minimum of 2800 green cards a year. You do the math. You are looking at approx 2020 September.

[GCEB420]

I think you should rather be asking why it went down to 1.7k for several reports, since that was non-nonsensical.

Here's the history of EB2-I 2010 since October 2014:

Oct-14 --- 4,811
Jan-15 --- 4,801
Apr-15 --- 4,779
Jul-15 --- 4,769
Oct-15 --- 4,768
Jan-16 --- 4,761
Apr-16 --- 4,728
Oct-16 --- 4,787
Jan-17 --- 4,748
Apr-17 --- 1,770
Aug-17 --- 4,725
Oct-17 --- 1,763
Jan-18 --- 1,754
Apr-18 --- 1,754
Jul-18 --- 4,677

Thank you Spec! Also the total pending inventory is at 29000 in July’s inventory.
It was maintained at 100k in every pending inventory list except the last two.
Do you think they will move the dates to catch up with the inventory ?
I see only approx 54000 EB3 I-140’s filed till 2018. The inventory for EB3 is at 2000.
Should we expect a huge move ?

[Moveon]

Hi All,
My company had filed my 495 as an Individual Contributor back in 2009 and I got my EAD in 2012 . If I change my role to an engineering Manager at my current or future employer will that have any issues with the GC. My lawyer tells me that there are absolutely no issues as long I don't move to finance or sales . He said that moving from an IC to an engineering manager with an EAD is permitted. Has anyone done that ?

[canada]

The demand inventory in EB2-I between March 2009 to August 2009 is ~5800. EB2I should get a minimum of 2800 green cards a year. You do the math. You are looking at approx 2020 September.

I really appreciate you answering my question

I guess I have to go into hibernation for the next couple of years as it’s no point in keeping a hope on the visa bulletin in 2019.

[Moveon]

Hi All,
My company had filed my 495 as an Individual Contributor back in 2009 and I got my EAD in 2012 . If I change my role to an engineering Manager at my current or future employer will that have any issues with the GC. My lawyer tells me that there are absolutely no issues as long I don't move to finance or sales . He said that moving from an IC to an engineering manager with an EAD is permitted. Has anyone done that ?

[iatiam]

I really appreciate you answering my question

I guess I have to go into hibernation for the next couple of years as it’s no point in keeping a hope on the visa bulletin in 2019.

You can take some credit for potential spillover next year and perhaps a slowdown in economy and immigration crackdown. Some might say there might be reverse porting but realistically it will prevent porting and the inventory from bloating further. I believe the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year.

Iatiam

[canada]

You can take some credit for potential spillover next year and perhaps a slowdown in economy and immigration crackdown. Some might say there might be reverse porting but realistically it will prevent porting and the inventory from bloating further. I believe the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year.

Iatiam

When you say the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year for 2009 what exactly do you mean? Can you please explain in simple words. Thanks

[AceMan]

When you say the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year for 2009 what exactly do you mean? Can you please explain in simple words. Thanks

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.

[canada]

I think, he is expecting both EB2 and 3 I to hit January 2010 by the end of FY 19. A tall order in my opinion. Eb2 already has close to 10 K numbers already with AOS. Lot of EB3 people from 2007 still waiting for GC, not discounting the fact a handful of 2008 early filers getting their GC. If the forward movement does not happen in the January bulletin, we can categorically say we will be in mid 2009's for both category to be around mid 2009 instead of end 2009.

Thanks for clarifying Aceman. Rocketfest earlier quoted there are 5800 applications waiting between March-August 2009. When you mentioned 10000 EB2- with AOS- are you talking for the applications from March 2009-December 2009?

So, even if there is no downgrading or spillover from other categories can I safely expect that I will be current in September 2020, rather than relying on the mercy of any category or my bad luck!!!!

I didn’t file AOS in 2012 and here I am still on H1B and hence getting impatient

[AceMan]

Thanks for clarifying Aceman. Rocketfest earlier quoted there are 5800 applications waiting between March-August 2009. When you mentioned 10000 EB2- with AOS- are you talking for the applications from March 2009-December 2009?

So, even if there is no downgrading or spillover from other categories can I safely expect that I will be current in September 2020, rather than relying on the mercy of any category or my bad luck!!!!

I didn’t file AOS in 2012 and here I am still on H1B and hence getting impatient

My scene was lack of understanding of the numbers and porting back in 2009 when I started the process. When the company started my gc process in 2009, they offered Eb3 as the position was advertised as 3 years and did not require masters. I stonewalled for a while before I talked to a sensible friend who asked me to get in the queue after around 6 months. By the time I started again, we had the Obama mandate of no Gc for 6 months if companies had layoffs of USC. So instead of a sep 2009 Pd, I got a feb 2011 pd. Water under the bridge. But still no harm In cribbing

10000 is aos for 2009 in Eb2 i pending

[iatiam]

When you say the inventory for 2009 will be exhausted this year for 2009 what exactly do you mean? Can you please explain in simple words. Thanks

I meant EB2 inventory till end of 2009 will be exhausted. July 2018 inventory shows about 9,500 pending applications from April 2009 to December 2009 and there will be a lot more people who have not been able to file for AoS. My assumption is that these people would chose to file in EB3 given it's movement thus keeping the inventory from increasing. Spec's tables point out historically high PERM approval rates. At some point this should come down and the immigration enforcement and potential for a recession next year should hopefully give enough spillover to clear those cases. Also note that May and June 2009 has comparatively high inventory rates and after that the 2009 recession reduced the PERM rates. So once we get over the May-June bump the dates will move faster.

I can't make educated guesses about EB3 until an inventory is released.

Iatiam

[canada]

I meant EB2 inventory till end of 2009 will be exhausted. July 2018 inventory shows about 9,500 pending applications from April 2009 to December 2009 and there will be a lot more people who have not been able to file for AoS. My assumption is that these people would chose to file in EB3 given it's movement thus keeping the inventory from increasing. Spec's tables point out historically high PERM approval rates. At some point this should come down and the immigration enforcement and potential for a recession next year should hopefully give enough spillover to clear those cases. Also note that May and June 2009 has comparatively high inventory rates and after that the 2009 recession reduced the PERM rates. So once we get over the May-June bump the dates will move faster.

I can't make educated guesses about EB3 until an inventory is released.

Iatiam

This seems so complicated - the more I understand.

[canada]

My scene was lack of understanding of the numbers and porting back in 2009 when I started the process. When the company started my gc process in 2009, they offered Eb3 as the position was advertised as 3 years and did not require masters. I stonewalled for a while before I talked to a sensible friend who asked me to get in the queue after around 6 months. By the time I started again, we had the Obama mandate of no Gc for 6 months if companies had layoffs of USC. So instead of a sep 2009 Pd, I got a feb 2011 pd. Water under the bridge. But still no harm In cribbing

10000 is aos for 2009 in Eb2 i pending

My grudge is my employer’s attorney never informed that there is premium processing for filing I-140 petition- so I should have been in January 2009 if I knew the wait is this long- I would have happily spent the fee for PP. now I am in September 2009