EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Spectator]

Came to learn USCIS has flipped back to Final Action dates for Oct filing.

I think this is something of a storm in a teacup.

On the main https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo page, someone has forgotten to update the Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts wording for EB to reflect the fact that Filing Dates can be used.

Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Final Action Dates chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

October 2018

The actual USCIS page for October 2018 still shows that Filing Dates can be used.

UPDATE

USCIS have fixed the error. The main page now reads:

Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

October 2018

[Ind2009]

They just updated the page.

https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletininfo

Current Month’s Adjustment of Status Filing Charts

For Family-Sponsored Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

For Employment-Based Preference Filings:
You must use the Dates for Filing chart in the Department of State Visa Bulletin for October 2018.

[idliman]

Does this mean that EB2I April 2009 will clear in this FY19 within the 2800 quota without needing any spillover. Ours is April 17 2009 and eagerly waiting to be greened due to some unfortunate/uncontrollable scheme of events happening at work. We recently got RFEs for Medicals and 485J and after responding, got 485J approval notice recently.

No worries. You should be current before Christmas and hopefully have GC in hand by then. They say the last few meters are the hardest in a marathon. So just keep yourself prepared for any situation mentally. Good Luck.

[EB2-03252009]

Spec,

any chances of posting trackitt data for 2019FY? Thanks!

[Spectator]

USCIS has finally published the Yearbook statistics for LPRs for FY2017.

They can be found here.

As for EB1C, the of primary approvals as the whole of EB1 continues to decline from the peak seen in FY2015.
EB1A approvals, as a %, continue to increase.

% Breakdown of EB1 By Sub-Category
For Primary Approvals

FY -------- EB1A ---- EB1B ---- EB1C
FY2012 -- 21.91% -- 20.84% -- 57.25%
FY2013 -- 25.05% -- 19.21% -- 55.74%
FY2014 -- 24.50% -- 18.49% -- 57.00%
FY2015 -- 25.35% -- 16.31% -- 58.35%
FY2016 -- 31.26% -- 16.37% -- 52.37%
FY2017 -- 34.34% -- 15.17% -- 50.49%

[qesehmk]

What a sad story ... in both 2016 and 2017 EB category underutilized quota by 2.5K.

This is painful and outrageous..

USCIS has finally published the Yearbook statistics for LPRs for FY2017.

They can be found here.

As for EB1C, the of primary approvals as the whole of EB1 continues to decline from the peak seen in FY2015.
EB1A approvals, as a %, continue to increase.

% Breakdown of EB1 By Sub-Category
For Primary Approvals

FY -------- EB1A ---- EB1B ---- EB1C
FY2012 -- 21.91% -- 20.84% -- 57.25%
FY2013 -- 25.05% -- 19.21% -- 55.74%
FY2014 -- 24.50% -- 18.49% -- 57.00%
FY2015 -- 25.35% -- 16.31% -- 58.35%
FY2016 -- 31.26% -- 16.37% -- 52.37%
FY2017 -- 34.34% -- 15.17% -- 50.49%

[mcmilers]

I know this has been asked before but cannot find much info about it. My PD is Feb 2010 and received a RFE for G-325A, I-693 and Supp J (Nebraska Processing Center). My Company attorneys are obviously asking me to respond and I will, but this this is a waste of time.
Was there any resolution on these random RFEs for 2010 PDs?
Also, the attorney was saying she hasnt seen RFE for G-325A in a long time. and it might be an error. does anyone have any experience with it?

[vyruss]

What a sad story ... in both 2016 and 2017 EB category underutilized quota by 2.5K.

This is painful and outrageous..

This is indeed very sad!! So many people waiting in limbo, in these days they should have a process in place when they have so many people waiting, assign the visas first so they do not go waste or use them the next year. There is no accountability!!

[bikenlalan]

From CI Law group,
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018...eid=ab43311d24

Our office has obtained an updated set of expected cutoff date movements over the next several months as we begin the new fiscal year. Mr. Charles Oppenheim who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS) (he is the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin) has provided updated explanations and expectations for fiscal year 2019 (FY19) which begins on October 1, 2018. The main takeaway is that EB-1 India and China will move very slowly, it at all, over the coming months.

EB-1 – Not Good News for India and China

Mr. Oppenheim is pessimistic that the EB-1 Worldwide final action date will advance before the end of this calendar year. Forward movement is not very likely in November and December but there should be forward movement in early 2019. Demand is sufficiently high so it is not possible to predict that EB-1 ROW will become current in FY 2019.

There is no advancement of EB-1 China or EB-1 India expected before January 2019 and it is “almost guaranteed” that both categories will be subject to a final action date through the fiscal year. This is not good news for EB-1 China and India applicants.

EB-2 and EB-3 India – Watch for “Flip”

We continue to monitor possible advancement of EB-3 India where EB-3 India would surpass EB-2 India and which will create favorable conditions for downgrading from EB-2 to EB-3 India. We will monitor and report on strategies over the coming weeks if it appears that this is going to happen.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

I know this has been asked before but cannot find much info about it. My PD is Feb 2010 and received a RFE for G-325A, I-693 and Supp J (Nebraska Processing Center). My Company attorneys are obviously asking me to respond and I will, but this this is a waste of time.
Was there any resolution on these random RFEs for 2010 PDs?
Also, the attorney was saying she hasnt seen RFE for G-325A in a long time. and it might be an error. does anyone have any experience with it?

Looks like you will be poorer by $ 750 . Bottomline is if you don't reply to the RFE, your application is liable to be denied. You don't have a choice.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

From CI Law group,
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2018...eid=ab43311d24

Our office has obtained an updated set of expected cutoff date movements over the next several months as we begin the new fiscal year. Mr. Charles Oppenheim who is the Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division for the U.S. Department of State (DOS) (he is the person responsible for the Visa Bulletin) has provided updated explanations and expectations for fiscal year 2019 (FY19) which begins on October 1, 2018. The main takeaway is that EB-1 India and China will move very slowly, it at all, over the coming months.

EB-1 – Not Good News for India and China

Mr. Oppenheim is pessimistic that the EB-1 Worldwide final action date will advance before the end of this calendar year. Forward movement is not very likely in November and December but there should be forward movement in early 2019. Demand is sufficiently high so it is not possible to predict that EB-1 ROW will become current in FY 2019.

There is no advancement of EB-1 China or EB-1 India expected before January 2019 and it is “almost guaranteed” that both categories will be subject to a final action date through the fiscal year. This is not good news for EB-1 China and India applicants.

EB-2 and EB-3 India – Watch for “Flip”

We continue to monitor possible advancement of EB-3 India where EB-3 India would surpass EB-2 India and which will create favorable conditions for downgrading from EB-2 to EB-3 India. We will monitor and report on strategies over the coming weeks if it appears that this is going to happen.

I have been telling everyone who is willing to listen, If you have the chance to file in EB3I, go for it!

[incredible]

Looks like you will be poorer by $ 750 . Bottomline is if you don't reply to the RFE, your application is liable to be denied. You don't have a choice.

I agree. We are also in the same boat (02/2010 PD) and received RFE last month for G325, Supplement-J and medicals. We have just responded. Regardless of whether it is useful or not, I guess we do have to respond.

[Nishant_imt]

I agree. We are also in the same boat (02/2010 PD) and received RFE last month for G325, Supplement-J and medicals. We have just responded. Regardless of whether it is useful or not, I guess we do have to respond.

I have paid this 5 times until now.

[Desi Dude]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

[suninphx]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

Mainly NSC was sending RFEs. Not sure if that has changed recently.

[jimmys]

Came to learn USCIS has flipped back to Final Action dates for Oct filing.

I think once the month starts they can't go back on dates. Any date flips has to happen before the actual month of filing. That's what happened in 2015. DoS took back the dates for Oct 2015 in September 2015 itself. When the case was filed, the government replied they're not legally obligated to give the dates before the month of filing.

[rabp77]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

yes...that is strange. my friend and I have Nov 2009 pd, and have not received any RFEs

[rabp77]

Folks with 2010 PD EB2 getting RFE doesn't make sense. I know people with May 2009 PD EB2, who have not received any RFE since filing I-485.

The only conclusion I can come to is that those who are getting RFEs have changed jobs or have other complications.

Yeah....my friend and i have Nov 2009 pd, and have not received any RFEs.
It is strange that Feb 2010 is getting RFEs.

[asankaran]

My priority date is EB2 March 2010 and just got EAD approved for 1 year expiring Sept 30, 2019. Any thoughts if IT could get current by then ? I was planning to travel next summer and this has caused bit of confusion.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My take on VB:
I guess there are NO more visas left for EB1-India & EB2-India for FY18. Also EB2-India can get retrogressed back anytime.
Only hope for any SO left is for EB3-India.
For all EB2-India (2009 & 2010): be prepare for downgrades and grab your GC from EB3-I quota in next 1 year.

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8931#post58931

looks to me EB3-India PDs will advance faster than predicted in the above link.

Can you create one more trend chart like the iconic chart you had created back in the day?

[Moveon]

Once you respond to the RFE - G325, Supplement-J and medicals is there anyway to track the progress on the RFE. All I got was an email that RFE response was received and the case status says the same.
My PD is 2009 Dec.

I am not sure if there are numbers to go that far this fiscal. I guess that would mean there would be another RFE next year as the medicals are valid for only one year

[march1612]

My priority date is EB2 March 2010 and just got EAD approved for 1 year expiring Sept 30, 2019. Any thoughts if IT could get current by then ? I was planning to travel next summer and this has caused bit of confusion.

Which service center did you file your 485?

[Moveon]

My priority date is EB2 March 2010 and just got EAD approved for 1 year expiring Sept 30, 2019. Any thoughts if IT could get current by then ? I was planning to travel next summer and this has caused bit of confusion.

What about your AP . I assume that's valid for a year too. If you travel while your AP is in process it will get denied. I had that experience this year. One option will be to renew the EAD as that will not be denied while traveling, come back and file for AP.

I am not sure about the GC numbers and why they are sending RFEs for folks who have PDs in 03/2010. My friend has not changed the co for last 10 years and got an RFE last week for 03/2010 (Nebraska).

[asankaran]

Which service center did you file your 485?

It was with Texas Service Center. I made a mistake of filing it 6 months early anticipating delay in approval but to my chagrin got it approved in less than two month.

[Umesh1209]

I applied for EAD 6 months in advance and I got my approval in less than 2 months. I am approved for 2 years. My wife applied two weeks before me and her case is still pending. In my opinion, the duration, speed and accuracy of EAD renewal is purely based on who is working on your case.