Thanks, good to you see you too. Though I hope one day we are not on these forums.Originally Posted by AceMan
As for the data, are you saying we are pending about 11K+3K for 2009 or 11K+6K (including dependents) ?
I just feel these PERM numbers seem a bit too high but then my analysis has been limited.
If these numbers have been verified for previous years - like matching PERM numbers with actual GC issued, then it would be more comfort.
Aceman, in simple language can you explain what do you intend to say? Do I have any hope of getting my date current- August 2009 this FY 2009
Thanks
My current H1 approved petition is valid till 2019 November and planning to go for stamping later this year. However, my company is changing its name from A to B but there are no structural changes in the company & no role/location changes. Do I need to file H1 amendment? Any risk in going for stamping with older company name in I-797?
True, but the reality is the forums provide us wealth of information.
What I was saying is as per the latest demand data the total numbers waiting for GC in EB2 I since mid march 2009- Dec 2009 is 10,000. There has been lot of EB2 I people before May 2009, greened back in 2014.
PERM Stats for 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2010 shows about 17000 approved perms. Since it is close to 10 year old, it would be only worth about 50-60% as probably, people would have moved on from this. So multiply 8500 * 1.5 (dependents) would indicate we have probably about 21,250 total numbers.
This list would include the above 10,000 who has already done AOS.
Eb2 -I August 17, 19104, July 18 - 15826. We might end up getting around 4000 visas for EB2 I in FY 18.
Eb3 -I August 17, 8837, July 18 - 473. We might end up getting around 10000 visas for EB3 I in FY 18.
A combined number of 14,0000 Visas for FY 2018, if the situation continues in 2019, EB2-I might appear ending at September 2009; In reality lot of EB2 filers are porters who may be still having this prior petition active and they can use that for GC.
EB3 I will definitely catch up EB2I in FY 19. But I don't think it will break away.
According to Spec's data (unless I misunderstand it): His data gives PERMs applied (For e.g., PERM applied in 2010 may have been approved in 2011, but priority date is still 2010),PERM Stats for 01/01/2009 to 12/31/2010 shows about 17000 approved perms.
EB3+Eb2 PERM
India --- Certified
CY2007 --- 23,098
CY2008 --- 23,746
CY2009 --- 16,672
CY2010 --- 22,361
I don't understand the wishful thinking that people have abandoned their PERMs from 2009 and 2010. The mass layoffs happened in 2009 and we still are taking forever to clear 2009.
The reason is quite simple. There is virtually no spillover available for last 5-6 years. 2007-2008-2009 were years where the annual EB2I demand was 2-3K per month. That did not include any EB3-I upgrades to EB2-I. So at 3K per year, do the math.
I bet at least 40% people from 2009 have given up on GC and went back.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
I just got off a plane and while in the plane, I was viewing FixNews and it said the House passed an 'Immigration Bill'. Did they pass H.R 392? I am not able to find anything to substantiate that news.
It is a bill called "Crime of Violence" which aims to allow removal of non-citizens (not just illegal or undocumented ones) if they are convicted of violent crimes. It is noteworthy that just this April the Supreme court opined that the "Crime of Violence" language in current INA is vague and unconstitutional. So perhaps this bill is an attempt to create a bullet-proof way to deport non-citizens when they commit "Crimes of Violence".
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Guruji,I bet at least 40% people from 2009 have given up on GC and went back.
Can you provide some more color to your statement? Are you saying that out of 10,880 pending 485 in 2009 (based on July 2018 pending inventory), around 4000 of them are not going to respond to their RFE?
The pending inventory for 2008 in EB2I only shows 236 remaining I-485s. Is it because USCIS removed I-485s that did not respond to an RFE? If 40% of people in 2009 have abandoned their PERM, would it not be fair to say that a large number of people have abandoned their PERM in 2008 too?
Since a lot of 2009 applicants have EAD, with so many Desi bodyshops in USA, can't they revive application once the date becomes current.
10880 is the total number who already got their EAD. They will not move out the queue. I was talking about the people from the perm numbers. I believe master also thinks the same way.
2008 Eb2 I is done. Incidentally that was the last year by which the elevated H1’s (195,000) in 2003 applied. So as the old saying goes, past performance of 2008 is not an indicator for 2009 and 2010 when US was in recession.
Immigration Law folks have categorically said that EB-485 inventory data is correct and there are no glitches. Don't know what's driving them towards this conclusion. May be they are just talking about EB2-I being correct looking at an update dated 09/04 (which we know is close to correct)
http://www.immigration-law.com/XXIV.html
Would love to hear expert opinions on this one. Very interesting times indeed!
'Oh uncle' is total crap. My perspective...ignore him....drawing mass on his website...total time pass
I would like to say this with utmost respect for that and all other sites that their "opinion" is absolutely wrong.
There are way too many instances when USCIS/DoS have accepted and corrected errors in published data.
Peace and Cheers.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Only thing which can potentially explain the inventory numbers is that:
- All I-485 cases with interview requirement (filed post Oct 2017) are being handled at field offices (don't think service centers conduct interview).
- Field office figures are not being included in the pending 485 inventory though description says otherwise. May be few but not all.
There's a steady decline in pending numbers over last 3-4 inventories published:
Oct 2017:
Total EB2I pending - 19466
Total EB3I pending - 6258
Jan 2018:
Total EB2I pending - 18488
Total EB3I pending - 4269
Apr 2018
Total EB2I pending - 17658
Total EB3I pending - 2917
July 2018
Total EB2I pending - 15826
Total EB3I pending - 473
This shows that USCIS has processed atleast 3640 EB2I cases and atleast 5785 EB3I since Oct 2017. No information on the cases processed at Field Offices within this time range though.
There are still pending 485 applications out there which unfortunately we don't see reliably in pending 485 reports.
Is there a way to calculate spill over EB2-I got for FY2018 with these numbers?
Gurus...please advise.
Subtract it with 2804 will give you the SO till date.
Per my understanding this should not be an issue. There are usually Merger Documents, or Successor in Interest or some other document in your case that would support the case that the new company is just a name change and is the same as the old one that it would have submitted to the Secretary of State for Registration of companies.
I have not gone for stamping but got H1 extensions while my original company went through Merger first and then was taken over too.
The company lawyer / HR should be able provide that required documentation proof
I went through a similar situation where my company got acquired. I went for stamping with the original I797, and the attorney provided documents about the acquisition. Not much questions were asked and visa was approved.
Pending inventory for Overall EB1 in October' 2017- 54,217
Pending inventory for overall EB1 in July' 2018- 7,557.
This means USCIS processed 54217-75557 = 46,660 visas within the same FY.
How can they issue additional 6,660 visas in EB1 when the cap is set at 40,000?
The July 18 demand data does not have information from field offices since March 2017. You have to wait till you see the annual statistics for the individual usage. In any case EB1 gets the unused SO from EB3/4/5 others.
VB out... EB2-I 03/26/2009
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ober-2018.html
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
Congrats you are current!
EB1 India final date : June 1st 2016
I guess this is the beginning of EB1 queue also getting slowed down
Can anybody state the rough estimated movements of EB2/EB3 for next 2 years ? Will any one of them reach 2011/2012 ?
Interesting pattern with filing dates. All categories and all countries filing dates retrogressed, except EB2 China and EB3 India. EB2 China filing dates advanced by 45 days, where are EB3 India filing dates advance by 5 months and crossed EB2I filing dates.
Hope USCIS honors Filing dates for Oct 2018.
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