EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB1C route is L1A to EB1C, not H1B. So, unless they crack down on L1As, the demand will remain.

[iatiam]

I appreciate your optimism, but with this admin, NOTHING is for sure.
We take a hunch at the numbers, but at the end of the day, it could all be utter hogwash. It could just be somebody crunching these numbers in the mind.

On 3. Indians + Chinese are 80-90 % of the H1b's. Its not sure if ROW folks are getting impacted.
On 4. There is NO proof that all this will reduce EB1C demand. On the contrary, I feel that if CTS is having trouble with H1b renewals, they will start filing MORE EB1C's (as the H1b extension route is getting closed).

Sorry for the rant, but I do not see the light at the end of the tunnel, unless this admin goes away which (if polls are to be believed) could take 6 more years !

Here is some data for you to ponder over. Source is National Foundation for American Policy which has taken the data from USCIS.
Attachment 1389
Attachment 1390

As you can see the RFE and rejection rates for India as well as other countries have gone up for both H1B and L1A. I will let you interpret the data you want but it's clear that every one is getting affected by the policies. True, as the biggest beneficiary, Indians are affected most but I personally know multiple people who's petitions were affected.

All this when economy is doing well and there are more jobs than applicants. If the economy goes south, which it will, then it's anybody's guess what will happen.

Iatiam

[canada]

Idliman, I am optimistic that dates will move to end of 2008 by October 2019. There are multiple reasons,
1. With EB3 moving forward, porting will come to an end and even lead to reverse porting from EB2I.
2. From June 2008 to Dec 2009, PERM filings are very low due to recession. The existing inventory might be very conservative 1000 per month which needs about 9,000 visas to clear
3. The crackdown on H1B filings is going to help. Anecdotal evidence and personal experience shows that it's not just Indians who are feeling the heat from Trump policies - ROW folks are also getting affected
4. Interview requirements and scrutiny of WITCH firms will reduce EB1C demand. Already CTS a big beneficiary of EB1C is having major issues to get H1B renewals

Iatiam

Hi,

Was it a typo error when you mentioned that the dates will move to the end of 2008 by October 2019 instead of 2009 by October 2019?

Thanks

[iatiam]

[QUOTE=canada;60136]Hi,

Was it a typo error when you mentioned that the dates will move to the end of 2008 by October 2019 instead of 2009 by October 2019?

Thanks[/QUOT

You are correct. It should be end of 2009

[canada]

[QUOTE=iatiam;60138]

Hi,

Was it a typo error when you mentioned that the dates will move to the end of 2008 by October 2019 instead of 2009 by October 2019?

Thanks[/QUOT

You are correct. It should be end of 2009

Thanks. The first time I read your post as 2008, I felt very depressed 😥 but thankfully you said it’s 2009🙂

Have a great weekend

[harshrk]

Hi All

My PD is 02/2010 EB2. Today I have received RFE for medicals, G-325 and Supplement J.

Hi,

I saw some people on Trackitt as well informing that they received such queries. I am guessing you already have an EAD correct? And on Trackitt the response was that this is supposed to be an automated query which happens when the medicals submitted earlier expire.

Can you please tell me that whether this is the case with you as well?

My interest in wanting to know this is that, I am PD July 2010 and I am desperately waiting for dates to move forward (and per earlier comments on thread, it is very unlikely that the dates will move forward that much) :-(

Thanks.

[Spectator]

USCIS appears to have published some revised July Inventory figures (kind of, sort of)

They aren't currently appearing on the main page, but can be found here.

They were produced a week after the first set which subsequently disappeared.

They are still pretty useless, but the Indian EB2 figures have returned to something approximating the last good numbers seen in August 2017.

If you want to look at them, I suggest you download them. Who knows if they'll disappear again.

Originally Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1391

Latest Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1392

[EB2-03252009]

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

USCIS appears to have published some revised July Inventory figures (kind of, sort of)

They aren't currently appearing on the main page, but can be found here.

They were produced a week after the first set which subsequently disappeared.

They are still pretty useless, but the Indian EB2 figures have returned to something approximating the last good numbers seen in August 2017.

If you want to look at them, I suggest you download them. Who knows if they'll disappear again.

Originally Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1391

Latest Published EB2-I July Inventory
Attachment 1392

This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

[incredible]

Hi,

I saw some people on Trackitt as well informing that they received such queries. I am guessing you already have an EAD correct? And on Trackitt the response was that this is supposed to be an automated query which happens when the medicals submitted earlier expire.

Can you please tell me that whether this is the case with you as well?

My interest in wanting to know this is that, I am PD July 2010 and I am desperately waiting for dates to move forward (and per earlier comments on thread, it is very unlikely that the dates will move forward that much) :-(

Thanks.

Yes. I do have an EAD back from 2012 (filed I485 in 2012). No other changes apart from that. I am not sure why this came now since medicals would have expired back in 2013 itself.

[AceMan]

Last week, three of my friends with late 2007 EB 3 PD confirmed they received their GC. They were all April 2018 filers. EB3-I looks like a good forward in 2019.

[redsox2009]

Based on the inventory if my guess is correct EB3 will pass EB2 dates.

[GCkaLADDU]

@Harepatthekaintezar

Well. The report says its for Service Centers and Field Offices

[qesehmk]

The latest inventory has EB3I corrected. No the inventory won't include AOS. It explicitely states 485.

This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

[qesehmk]

Based on the inventory if my guess is correct EB3 will pass EB2 dates.

When EB3 catches up or moves ahead of EB2, then all porting stops. If it moves ahead then we might strangely see reverse porting. In theory EB3 workforce should always be bigger than EB2 but a lot of strange things happen in the world

[srimurthy]

EB1C route is L1A to EB1C, not H1B. So, unless they crack down on L1As, the demand will remain.

Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

[srisri]

Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

I agree, I have known couple of H1B’s who have applied in EB1C and greened.

[LASHAB]

This update definitely makes sense only if it is the Total USCIS Inventory (not just field offices). The other numbers in the inventory do not make any sense. For example, EB3I has inventory in 2009 (even though USCIS is not accepting the Filing Dates)?

I guess if this inventory report is accurate (looks more accurate than last couple of published reports by looking at inventory post Jul 2009) FY 2019 will end with PDs in later part of 2009 (Oct-Dec) depending on the SO this year.

[EB2-03252009]

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

anyone??????

[EB3Iwaiting]

Not necessary, if the H1 has been from the last 3 years or so and are managers in India, they can still file EB1C. And I know a few H1 cases where EB1C was file a couple of years go and also greened.

What I meant was, L1A to EB1C is the PREFERRED route. Of course there will be exceptions like you mentioned. But I am sure that most go the L1A route.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Last week, three of my friends with late 2007 EB 3 PD confirmed they received their GC. They were all April 2018 filers. EB3-I looks like a good forward in 2019.

So, they had their interviews and got greened? That was pretty fast!

[idliman]

Hi Spec and others,

My PD is 03/25/2009 EB2-I, 485J approved on 07/22/18, I plan to change job soon, do you guys think its a good think to do now or wait for GC approval? or will they again ask for i-485j?

You are so close yet far. Only CO knows whether he is going to hold the EB2I dates at before 15MAR09 or move it immediately in Oct. You will know the visa bulletin movement in a week. I would probably wait, but the fact that you are posting this shows that you are willing to take a chance and move on with the next job.

[Spectator]

I thought it might be useful to put the USCIS Inventory figures into some kind of historical context, since that might help people with deciding about their veracity.
Attachment 1394

FWIW these would be my thoughts.

You can see that in recent times, the figures have been rather changeable.

Despite the title of the latest figures saying it includes Field Office cases, they clearly do not. The obvious clue is that there is no data for cases beyond early March 2017 for EB1-EB3.
That neatly coincides with the March 7 2017 cutoff date for cases that now have mandatory interview requirements. Perhaps USCIS is playing word games and it includes a few at Field Offices, but none at NBC. It doesn't really matter.

The only figures remaining that have any semblance of usefulness are those for EB2-I. That is the only group remaining that has significant numbers of I-485 cases submitted before March 7 2017.

No other figures can be considered even remotely complete and are therefore useless to predict upcoming demand.

I've also highlighted the recent inconsistencies in the PD Year figures for EB2-I. Although I've only shown the relatively recent past. Those figures hold true pretty much all the way back to when EB2-I reached 01MAY10 for a short period in 2012 and FAD movement over the time since.

[gcvijay]

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

[GCkaLADDU]

Spec

Do you think the filing dates(even if USCIS doesn't honor it) will give a clear picture of where EB2 and Eb3 INDIA will land by end of FY 2019?

Gurus

My i-140 was approved via consular processing route. My understanding is that priority date for me would be determined by chart b (Filing dates). Can you please comment if its not correct?