EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jackbrown_890]

Congratulations Jagan.

[Spectator]

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

Jagan,

Many congratulations.

I suspect it brings some real sense of stability to you.

Spec

[rainmaker12]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Further retrogression of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date cannot be ruled out in September, but there will be a recovery of the date in October.

The final action date for EB-1 Worldwide China and EB-1 India will hold at January 1, 2012 in August, and again for September, with the anticipated recovery of visa availability in October. Charlie will continue to watch trends over the summer and is working closely with USCIS to determine applicant demand which will be eligible for processing in October.

EB-4 India Tracks EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in August. As predicted, in August, EB-4 India joins EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, with a final action date of February 8, 2016, due to an influx of demand in May, June, and early July.EB-4 India will return to current in October.

There is a slim chance of forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in September. If that occurs, the date will likely hold for a few months. Charlie is cautious about advancing this category to avoid a subsequent retrogression. The ever-increasing availability of statistical data required for the determination of this date could lead to slightly more regular movements throughout FY 2019, rather than just during the final quarter.

China. EB-2 China advances two months to March 1, 2015 and EB-3 China advances 1.5 years to July 1, 2014 in August. EB-3 China, which had recently retrogressed due to significant downgrade demand, has subsided somewhat, allowing for this forward movement. At this point there has not been a dramatic increase in EB-2 China demand based on movement of that date, which is allowing some of these numbers to fall to EB-3. Charlie cautions against expectations of regular advancement of EB-3 China during FY-2019, as such movements are dependent on the development of future demand patterns.

India. EB-2 India will hold at March 15, 2009 in August and is anticipated to remain there through this fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide demand has picked up sufficiently enough to use the remaining EB-2 numbers which had allowed the India EB-2 date to advance. Although Charlie will review the numbers again later this month, unless there is an unlikely dramatic dip in worldwide demand that would justify advancing EB-2 India further, it will continue to hold.

In our last column we reported that EB-2 Worldwide demand is increasing and might require Charlie to impose a final action date before the end of the fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide will remain current in August. As noted last month, if a final action date is imposed in September, the category will return to current in October.

EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

EB-5. EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will continue to hold at August 1, 2014 in August and is expected to advance one week either in September or in October.

EB-5 Vietnam Non-Regional Center and Regional Center similarly holds at August 1, 2014. Charlie expects this category to advance to a 2016 date in October but cautions that the category it is likely to retrogress again once it hits its annual limit by spring.

[Spectator]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Thanks for the heads up on Charlie's Check-In.

P.S. The June CP figures have been published, but I'll let redsox continue the outstanding work in publishing those in the forum.

[vedu]

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

Congratulations, Jagan01! You are clearing the line for us!!

[suninphx]

Jagan - many congratulations !!

[imdeng]

Jagan - Many Congratulations!!!

It is great to see longstanding members reaching the endzone. Hope the trend continues.

[imdeng]

Interesting development: Lawsuit challenging counting of dependents in the quota numbers for EB-5. According to the thread, if this lawsuit wins then similar case can be made for other EB categories.

https://twitter.com/David_J_Bier/sta...95437476958208

[skpanda]

Jagan.. congratulations!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

EB-3 India - As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

The pending PERM numbers are very clear. EB3I will move ahead of 2I and stay there as far as the eye can see..

[redsox2009]

I'll let redsox continue the outstanding work in publishing those in the forum.

Did not realize what I signed up for..........................Machine broken, had to get new machine. After seeing your message tried to run my program on new machine, then realized, I did not install Acrobat Professional and Python Pips. Finally did those installs and here is the June data.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	00	04	02	01	20	0	209	236
EB2	10	11	07	37	113	06	105	289
EB3	44	99	15	330	34	13	354	889
EB4	07	28	02	07	14	5	147	210
EB5	570	42	10	02	51	00	185	860
Total	631	184	36	377	232	24	1000	2484

[redsox2009]

Year to date Monthly Family Immigrant Visa Issuance.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	ROW	Total
Total	9183	12632	21524	11272	105418	160029

YTD Grand Total both EB+FB

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	ROW	Total
Total	14868	13858	21862	15656	119647	183052

[Spectator]

Did not realize what I signed up for..........................Machine broken, had to get new machine. After seeing your message tried to run my program on new machine, then realized, I did not install Acrobat Professional and Python Pips. Finally did those installs and here is the June data.

redsox,

I absolutely sympathize!

I'm on a relatively new machine as well and most of my web based library of immigration related stuff is still on the old machine.

Thanks for the good work.

[almost]

What is the expectation for the EB-2I advancement in the coming months? Anyone?
Is there any chance of the final action dates getting past May 1st anytime soon? What are the best Vs worst case scenarios?
Thanks

[vedu]

What is the expectation for the EB-2I advancement in the coming months? Anyone?
Is there any chance of the final action dates getting past May 1st anytime soon? What are the best Vs worst case scenarios?
Thanks

Current approvals and future RFEs all the way up to December, 2009 are raining heavily. There is definitely something brewing behind the scenes. But I have been disappointed so many times by optimistic projections, so I won't predict anything, just observe!

[iatiam]

The pending PERM numbers are very clear. EB3I will move ahead of 2I and stay there as far as the eye can see..

What PERM numbers are you referring to?

Iatiam

[jackbrown_890]

Current approvals and future RFEs all the way up to December, 2009 are raining heavily. There is definitely something brewing behind the scenes. But I have been disappointed so many times by optimistic projections, so I won't predict anything, just observe!

Based on the trackitt data, it appears that almost all of them are issued by NSC. I don't know what is brewing behind the scenes at NSC. TSC is not issuing anything beyond May 09 PD.

[hope21]

Its finally my time to shout out loud.

Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.

Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.

I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.

Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law

I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.

Good luck to everyone else who is pending.

Many a congrats, 10 yrs and finally, so happy for you Jagan. Lets hope this trend continues for others, good luck to everyone who is waiting/pending..

[Jagan01]

Many a congrats, 10 yrs and finally, so happy for you Jagan. Lets hope this trend continues for others, good luck to everyone who is waiting/pending..

Jagan.. congratulations!

Jagan - Many Congratulations!!!

It is great to see longstanding members reaching the endzone. Hope the trend continues.

Jagan - many congratulations !!

Congratulations, Jagan01! You are clearing the line for us!!

Jagan,

Many congratulations.

I suspect it brings some real sense of stability to you.

Spec

Congratulations Jagan.

Freedom at last Jagan

Many congratulations and thanks for contributing to this forum.

I am sure a celebration is in order. Enjoy!

Thanks everyone for the wishes and good luck to everyone. Will keep visiting the forum every once in a while to see everyone get greened.

[lville]

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Check-in with Department of State’s Charlie Oppenheim regarding the August Visa Bulletin

Employment-Based Preference Categories
Further retrogression of the EB-1 Worldwide final action date cannot be ruled out in September, but there will be a recovery of the date in October.

The final action date for EB-1 Worldwide China and EB-1 India will hold at January 1, 2012 in August, and again for September, with the anticipated recovery of visa availability in October. Charlie will continue to watch trends over the summer and is working closely with USCIS to determine applicant demand which will be eligible for processing in October.

EB-4 India Tracks EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in August. As predicted, in August, EB-4 India joins EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico, with a final action date of February 8, 2016, due to an influx of demand in May, June, and early July.EB-4 India will return to current in October.

There is a slim chance of forward movement in EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras and Mexico in September. If that occurs, the date will likely hold for a few months. Charlie is cautious about advancing this category to avoid a subsequent retrogression. The ever-increasing availability of statistical data required for the determination of this date could lead to slightly more regular movements throughout FY 2019, rather than just during the final quarter.

China. EB-2 China advances two months to March 1, 2015 and EB-3 China advances 1.5 years to July 1, 2014 in August. EB-3 China, which had recently retrogressed due to significant downgrade demand, has subsided somewhat, allowing for this forward movement. At this point there has not been a dramatic increase in EB-2 China demand based on movement of that date, which is allowing some of these numbers to fall to EB-3. Charlie cautions against expectations of regular advancement of EB-3 China during FY-2019, as such movements are dependent on the development of future demand patterns.

India. EB-2 India will hold at March 15, 2009 in August and is anticipated to remain there through this fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide demand has picked up sufficiently enough to use the remaining EB-2 numbers which had allowed the India EB-2 date to advance. Although Charlie will review the numbers again later this month, unless there is an unlikely dramatic dip in worldwide demand that would justify advancing EB-2 India further, it will continue to hold.

In our last column we reported that EB-2 Worldwide demand is increasing and might require Charlie to impose a final action date before the end of the fiscal year. EB-2 Worldwide will remain current in August. As noted last month, if a final action date is imposed in September, the category will return to current in October.

EB-3 India will advance two months in August to January 1, 2009. The gap in final action dates between EB-2 India (March 15, 2009) and EB-3 India (January 1, 2009) continues to narrow, leaving only 2.5 months between these categories. As to whether he expects these dates will “flip-flop” as they have for China in recent years, Charlie reminds members that he advanced the final action date for EB-3 India to generate demand for visa usage next fiscal year. Once that demand starts to materialize it is likely to slow EB-3 India’s advancement. The possibility of EB-3 India’s final action date advancing beyond that of EB-2 India cannot be ruled out but Charlie is not able to speculate on this at this time.

EB-5. EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will continue to hold at August 1, 2014 in August and is expected to advance one week either in September or in October.

EB-5 Vietnam Non-Regional Center and Regional Center similarly holds at August 1, 2014. Charlie expects this category to advance to a 2016 date in October but cautions that the category it is likely to retrogress again once it hits its annual limit by spring.

Why is this data (Info) relevant ? August was published 2 weeks ago. We are looking forward to September bulletin.

[Spectator]

Why is this data (Info) relevant ? August was published 2 weeks ago. We are looking forward to September bulletin.

Because it is CO's comments made AFTER the August VB was published (the article was published 2 days ago).

It may mention some movements made in August, but in general it discusses September and beyond.

I didn't think it was that difficult to comprehend. Obviously I was mistaken.

[lville]

Because it is CO's comments made AFTER the August VB was published (the article was published 2 days ago).

It may mention some movements made in August, but in general it discusses September and beyond.

I didn't think it was that difficult to comprehend. Obviously I was mistaken.

Lol. Thank you.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Some April 2018 EB3I filers are getting Interview Dates already. They have been finger printed and got their EAD Combo cards. So I expect some of them will get approved in this FY itself.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

It drastically reduces the chances of any EB3 Visas from 'falling up' !

[Pundit Arjun]

FYI : Received RFE text notifications for the dependents and me couple days ago. Not sure of the details - I will update you guys once I receive the details in mail.

Agree with you folks that there is nothing to be excited (Gone are those days - after multiple RFEs over years you know that its BS) about till the date becomes current and stays current for few months.

Details include request for - I693, Evidence of lawful entry [i-94], G-325A, Schedule J. Again not amped up since there is no way this could be the last RFE before getting greened --> [Too early to ask these for my PD being the reason]