This would be true if the latest Pending Inventory is correct. If you consider August 2017 PI then the numbers would be 675+645+340 = 1660, so even if there are 1K SO it will suffice till March 15th 2009.Originally Posted by Jagan01
I personally feel that latest PI is wrong coz in 2008 alone there are 6,658 and if this num was correct dates would have been in 2008 and not 2009.
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
You are correct that the pending inventory may not be correct. However, I am thinking from a conservative standpoint and hence I consider the worst pending inventory. You also need to account for the fact that some porting might be ongoing and also that some of the candidates might have married and have 2 applications leading to some increase in the pending inventory.
I do not think we would see retrogression in Sep VB. September VB is the last VB of the month and if CO feels that there are not enough visas then they can always internally retrogress the dates anytime in September. I think the eb2I dates will stay at Mar 15, 2009 for the rest of the year.
I hope there is no retro at all...I am good with no movement...
Retro is worst thing that can happen.
A 3ROW friend of mine got his Interview appointment in less than 6 months after filing AOS. So, all those who have been saying that it is taking 1 yr to schedule interviews are just BS'ng. But bottomline is that 3I folks with PD>July 2007 have no chance of getting approved in this FY. There will definitely be SO in EB3 this year and that should flow to EB1 NOT EB2 as is being fervently hoped and promoted by vested interests. But given the approvals in 2I, it looks like CO is wilfully diverting EB3 SO to 2I!!
There is no law that requires or allows EB3 SO to be applied to EB1. On the other hand porting from EB3 to EB2 has happened in droves and downgrading from EB2 to EB3 is freely allowed. So, maintaining a strict allocation between EB2 and EB3 makes no sense because they anyhow use up each other's visa numbers. So applying EB3 so to EB2 is perfectly rational and justifiable. I have never understood people who actively canvas against their own self interest.
Yesterday USCIS released the new Metric's for Q2 2018.
Nothing new that we don't know. 28336 approved 485 and 15194 approved at Service centers,13142 at field office centers.
H1B rejections on other hand went up by 45% when compared with Q2 2017.
https://www.uscis.gov/tools/reports-...ustment-status
Despite of extended delays in processing with mandated interviews, USCIS performance seems to be good. USCIS approved 30472 applications in 1st quarter and 28336 in second quarter.
If 20 percent(28000) of available 140000 are approved in consular processing at overseas consulates this year, only 53192 GCs left to be issued in 3rd and 4th quarter which is about 26596 a quarter. So i guess no GC will be wasted because of interview delays.
bluelabel,
Just to add to your post.
We also know that 16,239 EB Consular processing cases were approved in Q1/Q2.
This brings EB visa use for the first half of the FY to 75,047. This represents 53.6% of the 140,000 total allocation - pretty close to the maximum 54% allowed by law.
There's been another 4,300 Consular approvals in April/May (when EB1-IC was retrogressed), which suggests about 12,900 Consular approvals for the second half of the FY.
That would leave about 52k AOS applications for USCIS to approve (or 26k per quarter).
As you say, this seems well within USCIS ability, even with the new interview mandate and even if the actual number is a bit higher than that.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Could this also be due to relatively low volume of new applications compared to previous years?
This is a worrying trend and shows what is happening in WITCH companies. People whose H1B is denied are going back to India and doing CP in EB1C category. DHS in an effort to curb down fraud came up with the idea of interviews but now we have a double-headed hydra instead of one.
Iatiam
The figures don't support that hypothesis.
Of 16,239 CP approvals in Q1/Q2, only 173 were for EB1 India.
Even if they were all EB1C, it's not a large number.
There were more CP approvals for India in EB3 (246) and nearly as many for EB5 (152).
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec,
I would like to review what i said again. Out of 30472 I-485s approved in first quarter 25396 are approved at service centers and only 5076 are approved at field offices, in second quarter out of 28336 only 15194 are approved at service centers and 13142 approved at field offices.
Looks like there were several 485s approved that were filed before March 6th 2017 in first half of the FY and only 18218 are approved at field offices after interview. The percentage of applications approved after interview in first half is ~31 and 69 percent of them approved without interview.
Perhaps i may be little overestimating USCIS ability to conduct 100000 plus EB 485 interviews in future. I guess there will be delays in conducting interviews in next FY as well and may have to move EB2I little aggressively at some point of time.
Field offices do pretty big no of interviews every year when you consider family based, citizenship etc. i have read somewhere and I cant recall the source now that fueld offices were told few months back to prioritize EB based interviews over others. So they very well can do 100K interviews if they want to.
bluelabel,
I share your concern for the future.
It's what happens when nativists like Miller are allowed to dictate policy.
No thought (or maybe it was) was given to the consequences of the decision.
Each Field Office has a maximum bandwidth for the number of interviews that can be carried out.
I don't think hiring more people is really an option - they have to sit somewhere and I don't think the present facilities can't accommodate the increase.
So far, it seems that space for EB interviews has been made at the expense of other immigration benefits that also require an interview. Naturalization processing times have increased by up to 4 times the period they were before the change.
Perhaps it's going to return to how AOS used to be, with 3 to 4 year processing times. If that happens, more people will choose Consular Processing, which will have shorter more predictable processing times.
Or, we could have a regime change .... I don't expect it to get better under the current administration. If they can't pass laws, they seem determined to strangle immigration via policy memos.
Just as an addendum to show the progression through the FY.
Based on Trackitt figures, the % of cases approved After and Before (including March 7, 2017) in the first 3 quarters were:
EB2-ROW
----- After -- Before
Q1 -- 24.3% --- 75.7%
Q2 -- 43.4% --- 56.6%
Q3 -- 79.8% --- 20.2%
EB3-ROW
----- After -- Before
Q1 -- 36.8% --- 63.2%
Q2 -- 69.2% --- 30.8%
Q3 -- 87.3% --- 12.7%
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Spec, agree with you on this. The whole purpose of adding AOS interviews is to slow down legal immigration. If people get their GCs delayed, their naturalization and hence, ultimately becoming a citizen is also delayed...which by the way is delayed too because of the interviews. There was a reason why AOS interviews were waived before.
These nativists are scared that whites will soon be a minority in this country. Immigration is this country is dominated by non-white people now. Some in Congress like Cotton and Grassley are desperately trying to cut down the annual GC quota. But since Congress is incompetent and cannot pass a single bill, the administration is doing its best to slow down immigration by policy memos. They keep adding hurdles (2 memos came out last week...no more RFEs, straight denials and NTAs if you fall out of status...so if you leave..you will be barred for 5 years) and others like rescinding H4 EAD.
Trump has been unable to build his wall against illegal immigration but he is already doing it against legal immigration.Yet, somehow our crowds still do rallies supporting this administration and it's policies.
http://thehill.com/blogs/congress-bl...gal-immigrants
But look at the immigration laws passed even by Congress over the years....they have been a series of xenophobic and racist actions attempted to stop people of certain regions from immigrating here. US has a long history of being hostile to a new group of immigrants. But this administration has literally declared war on immigrants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPn9qZULv7A
Are the AOS interviews for EB applicants, only for new applications?
Yes and they are being scheduled within 6 months of applying for AOS (not 1 year out as posted by a few vested interests on here)
Before the new AOS interview policy, USCIS mainly had to do AOS interviews for categories that did not have an annual cap, such as immediate relatives, asylum, or refugees.
The only cases where AOS interviews required requesting a visa number were FB. The vast majority of FB cases are actual done by CP. In 2016 only 15,116 FB cases out of 238,087 (6.3%) were done by AOS.
I could not find any document showing the the total interview volume for USCIS but we can make some estimates. I will use 2016 since there were very little EB based interviews during that fiscal year.
Family based I-485 (includes FB and IR categories):338k
Citizenship: 972k
Refugee/Asylum (included Cuban Adjustment Act) AOS: 150k
Removal of Conditions: 145k
Total: 1,605,000
So, under the current trend of about 85% of EB cases being done through AOS, this would represent 119,000 cases or an extra 7.4% I will let others conclude whether they think this is something can be accommodated.
Looks like USCIS lost my spouse's RFE reply.
Received RFE(Myself and Spouse) on May 22nd and attorney replied in separately packages, primary was received by USCIS few days earlier than spouse RFE(USPS messed it up here).
Myself: Medicals, Sup-J (approved on 06/27), Status
Spouse: Medicals.
On July 16th they have again sent RFE for spouse and today we received it.
Resubmission of evidence.
"USCIS issued a request for evidence on May 22,2018, for which USCIS received a response on June 11, 2018. This evidence is not contained in the record. Please resubmit."
Do we need to again redo the medicals or can we submit the one which we took on May 22nd, not sure how much we need to pay to doctor again(even for copies).
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
No need to redo medicals, just tell the doctor that it got lost in transit, he will most probably bill you to fill out the form again. Use fedex or ups this time. Good luck.
NSC:EB2 India, Priority Date:05/27/09, ND:03/08/12, NRD:03/14/12
Thanks for the reply. got a copy from the immigration doctor, they charged me $25 and I sent it myself to USCIS instead of attorney as they were charging $250.
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
FYI : Received RFE text notifications for the dependents and me couple days ago. Not sure of the details - I will update you guys once I receive the details in mail.
Agree with you folks that there is nothing to be excited (Gone are those days - after multiple RFEs over years you know that its BS) about till the date becomes current and stays current for few months.
Its finally my time to shout out loud.
Finally after 10 years of wait, today I received the approval for my GC.
Its such a nice feeling. Something you have eagerly awaited for such a long time is finally available to you.
I have learnt a lot of things from this forum and have been fortunate enough to receive some very good inputs and advise at different times during this entire process.
Special thanks to the following people:
Q - For maintaining and running this forum
Spec - For the awesome data you provide and the amazingly accurate analysis of every possible document
Kanmani - For providing a lot of detailed explanation of some of the documents written by the law
I would also like to thank each and every member on this forum for all the respectful interaction we have had over the time.
Good luck to everyone else who is pending.
Freedom at last Jagan
Many congratulations and thanks for contributing to this forum.
I am sure a celebration is in order. Enjoy!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
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