I've updated all the figures in the PERM section of FACTS & DATA with the FY2018 Q3 data.
I've updated all the figures in the PERM section of FACTS & DATA with the FY2018 Q3 data.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
My take on VB:
I guess there are NO more visas left for EB1-India & EB2-India for FY18. Also EB2-India can get retrogressed back anytime.
Only hope for any SO left is for EB3-India.
For all EB2-India (2009 & 2010): be prepare for downgrades and grab your GC from EB3-I quota in next 1 year.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8931#post58931
looks to me EB3-India PDs will advance faster than predicted in the above link.
It is very difficult for EB3 I to clear 2007 PD itself this FY.Originally Posted by march1612
The absolute nonsense of no movement in the first quarter by DOS and no consideration of Filing date by USCIS literally blew out our best possible year. Yes, the dates moved more than 2 years, but number of GC issued is expected to be way less.
I don't think 2009-10 EB2 people struggle compared to people from 2011 onwards in EB2. There is still hope for EB2 I 2009 because we have one more month in this FY and lot of RFE's being reported.
EB3 I already had a 2 year movement. However where are the GC's to show? If the demand is not there, then it can move faster. However if you look at the pattern that happened for FY 18, the chances for it retrogressing is also high.
This has been 2 years late due to the ineptitude shown by CO. If he had managed the Dates judiciously, this would have happened 2 years ago! Your famous chart would have come true!!
Could this be a reality in 1year from now?
EB2-I May 2010
EB3-I Dec 2010
Assumption: Less porting from EB3 to EB2, No change in spill over rules, no immigration bills and added contentious immigration issues we see today
I would say
EB2-I Dec 2009
EB3-I Mar 2010
EB3I makes sense - it's possible. EB2I though is not finishing 2009 for next two years. In one year we may reach Aug-Sept 2009. EB2I is going to be straight 2.8K a year - so about 3 months a year - plus whatever downgrades that will start once EB3I zooms ahead.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
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I think CO is moving EB3I randomly, without knowing the exact numbers of EB3I Perms outstanding. He might as well push it to be equal with EB2I at one go and get done with it!
Hi - i have a question re downgrade. my priority Date is EB2 - 1 Dec 2010.
In order to downgrade ( with same Employer ), do i have to refile perm or just refile 140/485 with supp j when PD becomes current for EB3 ?
i read an article re what EB2 C folks did back in 2013/4 and cant find that link anymore but that made me believe that there was a path to downgrade without having to redo perm. pls comment. thanks
ps i am trying to understand this so as to ask appropriate questions to fragomen.
This question is more appropriate 1 year from now. Till then, I don't see anything happening that would make someone with your PD downgrade.
That will probably be the case in the next VB! Then, in the next FY, EB3I zooms ahead.
I also completely agree that YT's chart would have come true if not for CO's ineptitude. Too many visas were taken away from EB3 and given to other categories. I held on to YT's chart for a long time and did not upgrade. But seeing all the misallocations, I finally did and my PD is current from July VB. But looks like my PD may be current in September VB too in EB3I.
Either way, EB3Is deserved this at least 2 years ago.
EB2-I retrogression???
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
Wonder what impact the strict enforcement of immigration rules is having on PERM approvals and overall SO. Heard stories of RFEs for people who are working for Desi consultants and WITCH companies. That with 485 interview should presumably lower the visa demand. Although I am also seeing cases where people are going back to India after H1B denial and applying in EB1 through CP from India. I guess that's why CP cases are much higher too.
Iatiam
Spec,
Thank you
Can you confirm if the numbers listed in the tables are when 485 application of a particular Priority date applied in any FY and pending?
Yes. They already moved the dates more than necessary. I do not think there is enough SO to clear everyone before Mar 15, 2009. Not sure why CO could not have started advancing dates earlier and advanced one month at a time.
If you notice the pattern of approvals this month then you would find that most of the approvals are coming in for the people in Feb and Mar 2009. This might lead to a situation where many in Dec 2008 and Jan 2009 do not get approved and will provide reason for CO to retrogress dates for EB2I to Nov 2008.
Hopefully, I am proven wrong and there are enough visas to cover everyone before Mar 15, 2009, but right now it does not seem so.
Did you see the trackitt approvals? we still have this FY quota left, only 127 approvals compared to last years 174.
http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2014-vs-FY2013
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
Open question, if the dates were suppose to retro, on what basis EB2-I dates were held at March 15,2009 for rest of FY?
1. Is it because CO is expecting to apply SO from EB3 to EB2-India?
2. Is it because CO is expecting to use next years country quota to approve EB2-I applications until March 15,2009?
3. If #1 is not the case, With pretty much every category went to retro, where are the SO applied? if any?
The tables have nothing to do with I-485 applications or whether they are pending.
The tables represent the raw data for PERM Certifications. The title for each of the posts clearly states the data relates to PERM.
The columns (FY) are the FY in which the PERM was Certified by OFLC.
The rows are the derived PD from the A-number. Although this is imperfect for individual cases, over 100s of thousands of cases the errors should get smoothed out.
The tables make no assumptions about conversion to I-485 (or even I-140 for that matter). They make no assumptions on whether there are people with more than one PERM, abandonment, whether any subsequent petition or application has since been approved etc.
As stated above, they represent the raw data, which people can, if they wish, use as a starting point for further calculations, or derive trends.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
If you compare the trackitt approvals from last year , which was a total of 174, hen you should anticipate 43 approvals per quarter. In the first three quarters that would translate to 129 approvals and that is what we see. So we do have last quarter worth of annual quota left. This would translate to roughly 700 real world approvals.
the last quarter is July - Sep and the EB2I dates were moved to Mar 15, 2009 in the last quarter. So the additional demand generated will be at least 2583 (Jan 2009 - 1154 / Feb 2009 - 888 / Considering half of Mar 2009 - 541).
As you can see the remaining quota of 700 cannot suffice fore 2583 demand.
There will be some SO available and assuming that the SO is at least 3000 we would barely be able to cover the dates until Mar 15 2009.
IT may be that there is less SO and that SO will be consumed by EB2I and CO has already accounted the fact that some SO (2-3k) will be going to EB2I. So basically the Mar 15, 2009 date has accounted for the SO.
Thanks Spec.
If I understand it right, can we safely assume SO is sufficient to approve existing cases which do not need an interview and There are no Visas left for New filers and if new filing demand increases could cause CO to retro the dates in Next VB?
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