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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #3201
    2018 May Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total
    EB1 00 06 05 00 15 00 217 243
    EB2 08 08 11 19 71 02 147 266
    EB3 64 114 37 394 52 06 339 1006
    EB4 02 39 00 03 03 10 190 247
    EB5 64 46 00 00 17 00 210 337
    Total 138 213 53 416 158 18 1103 2099

  2. #3202
    Year to date Monthly Family and Employment Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total
    EmploymentTotal 5054 1042 302 4007 10134 20539
    FamilyTotal 8250 11520 18309 10091 93766 141936
    Total 13304 12562 18611 14098 103900 162475

  3. #3203
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Year to date Monthly Family and Employment Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total
    EmploymentTotal 5054 1042 302 4007 10134 20539
    FamilyTotal 8250 11520 18309 10091 93766 141936
    Total 13304 12562 18611 14098 103900 162475
    This is a significant number for CP - would amount to about about 20% of all EB visas by the end of the fiscal year. Clearly some are taking advantage of CP vs AOS under the new interview requirement for AOS- look at the numbers for ROW.

  4. #3204
    Quote Originally Posted by meragc View Post
    thanks for the response, do appreciate your honest opinion here
    so if i understand it correctly you say i am not yet current is because the dates are applicable to July and we are still in June yeah??
    Yup - that's what I meant.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  5. #3205
    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    Year to date Monthly Family and Employment Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total
    EmploymentTotal 5054 1042 302 4007 10134 20539
    FamilyTotal 8250 11520 18309 10091 93766 141936
    Total 13304 12562 18611 14098 103900 162475
    What could be the reason for so low EB visa issuances?

  6. #3206
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    Quote Originally Posted by redsox2009 View Post
    China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total
    EmploymentTotal 5054 1042 302 4007 10134 20539
    FamilyTotal 8250 11520 18309 10091 93766 141936
    Total 13304 12562 18611 14098 103900 162475
    Quote Originally Posted by kkruna View Post
    What could be the reason for so low EB visa issuances?

    kkruna,

    The figures are for DOS Consular Processed cases only (8 months October - May) and do not include any AOS cases processed by USCIS.

    They are not low.

    For reference, here are the CP figures for the entire FY2017:

    -------------------- China -- India - Mexico - Philippines ----- ROW --- Total
    Employment Total --- 8,039 ---- 756 ---- 278 ------- 4,278 -- 10,463 -- 23,814
    Family Total ------ 14,954 - 14,839 - 27,627 ------ 13,478 - 141,257 - 212,155

    Grand Total ------- 22,993 - 15,595 - 27,905 ------ 17,756 - 151,720 - 235,969

    In FY2017, 17% of EB visas issued were Consular Processed
    In FY2017, 94% of FB visas issued were Consular Processed
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  7. #3207
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    kkruna,

    The figures are for DOS Consular Processed cases only (8 months October - May) and do not include any AOS cases processed by USCIS.

    They are not low.

    For reference, here are the CP figures for the entire FY2017:

    -------------------- China -- India - Mexico - Philippines ----- ROW --- Total
    Employment Total --- 8,039 ---- 756 ---- 278 ------- 4,278 -- 10,463 -- 23,814
    Family Total ------ 14,954 - 14,839 - 27,627 ------ 13,478 - 141,257 - 212,155

    Grand Total ------- 22,993 - 15,595 - 27,905 ------ 17,756 - 151,720 - 235,969

    In FY2017, 17% of EB visas issued were Consular Processed
    In FY2017, 94% of FB visas issued were Consular Processed
    This years CP for EB is on track to be 7K more than the pace of 2017. Looks like ROW and Philippines are accounting for those extra numbers. Which ROW countries do you think are sending those extra 5K numbers?

  8. #3208
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    This years CP for EB is on track to be 7K more than the pace of 2017. Looks like ROW and Philippines are accounting for those extra numbers. Which ROW countries do you think are sending those extra 5K numbers?
    The dates for EB2&3I should still move ahead for rest of the FY. Not sure how CO will calculate the forward movement though, or go conservative and hold on to the current dates.

  9. #3209
    Quote Originally Posted by HarepathekaIntezar View Post
    This years CP for EB is on track to be 7K more than the pace of 2017. Looks like ROW and Philippines are accounting for those extra numbers. Which ROW countries do you think are sending those extra 5K numbers?
    It is very evenly distributed. When the new interview procedures for AOS were announced, many decided to file their I-140s while choosing Consular Processing.

  10. #3210
    Dear All,

    I have a priority date of May 1 2009 and yesterday I got an RFE on my pending 485 for expired medicals. Funnily, this time there was no text or email notification sent. 3 questions:

    1) Has anyone else experienced the same thing.

    2) Even though the RFE doesn't explicitly ask for the Form J to be filed, it does have a section to check a box if a revision needs to be file. Since I filed for the last renewal before this form came into affect, do I need to file the form J as well? Also, it is important to note that I have been filing for EAD renewals under my own corporation (this was done only after consulting the attorney from Murthy Law Firm) and atleast the last renewal went through on that basis (expires Feb 2019)

    3) At this point, is it worth filing for an EAD renewal?

    Appreciate any help and guidance.

    Thanks

  11. #3211
    Quote Originally Posted by almost View Post
    Dear All,

    I have a priority date of May 1 2009 and yesterday I got an RFE on my pending 485 for expired medicals. Funnily, this time there was no text or email notification sent. 3 questions:

    1) Has anyone else experienced the same thing.

    2) Even though the RFE doesn't explicitly ask for the Form J to be filed, it does have a section to check a box if a revision needs to be file. Since I filed for the last renewal before this form came into affect, do I need to file the form J as well? Also, it is important to note that I have been filing for EAD renewals under my own corporation (this was done only after consulting the attorney from Murthy Law Firm) and atleast the last renewal went through on that basis (expires Feb 2019)

    3) At this point, is it worth filing for an EAD renewal?

    Appreciate any help and guidance.

    Thanks
    No, I am a few days behind you. Also I am not even sure if my date will be current later this year. I would advise you wait till you become current or till you have few days left to reply to the RFE; before you send in your reply.
    This way you have maximized your time for the validity of the medical reports (they are valid for an year after USCIS receives it). Good luck. I would advice also filling for your EAD renewal. RFE does NOT guarantee that you are going to get current soon. Also not sure whether you need to file form J. I would not do it if they have not specifically asked for it. Others can chime in.
    NSC:EB2 India, Priority Date:05/27/09, ND:03/08/12, NRD:03/14/12

  12. #3212
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    Quote Originally Posted by almost View Post
    Dear All,

    I have a priority date of May 1 2009 and yesterday I got an RFE on my pending 485 for expired medicals. Funnily, this time there was no text or email notification sent. 3 questions:

    1) Has anyone else experienced the same thing.

    2) Even though the RFE doesn't explicitly ask for the Form J to be filed, it does have a section to check a box if a revision needs to be file. Since I filed for the last renewal before this form came into affect, do I need to file the form J as well? Also, it is important to note that I have been filing for EAD renewals under my own corporation (this was done only after consulting the attorney from Murthy Law Firm) and atleast the last renewal went through on that basis (expires Feb 2019)

    3) At this point, is it worth filing for an EAD renewal?

    Appreciate any help and guidance.

    Thanks
    I would recommend you to address only those mentioned in RFE.
    EAD renewal is tied to your 485 application and not employer. As long as 485 is pending you are entitled to apply for EAD/AP renewals.

  13. #3213
    The reason why I ask about form J is:

    https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

    Use Supplement J to:
    •Confirm that the job offered to you in Form I-140, Petition for Alien Worker, remains a bona fide job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I 485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, is approved. Beginning Jan. 17, 2017, if you are filing or have previously filed Form I-485 based on being the principal beneficiary of a valid Form I-140 in an employment-based immigrant visa category that requires a job offer, you will need to file Supplement J instead of submitting a job offer letter;

    OR
    •Request job portability under INA section 204(j) to a new, full-time, permanent job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I-485 is approved. This new job offer must be in the same or a similar occupational classification as the job offered to you in the Form I-140 that is the basis of your Form I-485. (For more information about how USCIS determines which jobs are same or similar please see PM-602-0122: Determining Whether a New Job is in “the Same or a Similar Occupational Classification” for Purposes of Section 204(j) Job Portability (PDF, 205 KB) (March 18, 2016) (PDF, 205 KB)

  14. #3214
    Always apply for EAD/AP. Why wouldn't you apply for those? Its a simple set of forms.

    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    Hello freinds, If my PD becomes current does it make sense to apply for EAD with I485? should i just wait for my GC without applying for EAD.
    EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary

  15. #3215
    I have a quick question about Job title change. Please move it to appropriate thread once answered.
    Couple of years ago my title was changed from Sr. Software Developer to Sr. Software Developer - Lead. There was no pay increase with the title change. In addition to my regular software development duties, I am also managing team of developers now. I need to renew my H1B soon. My question is do you guys see any issues with H1B renewal or I-485 application because of this change? Do I need to file I-485 J to prove the job is same or similar?
    Thanks.

  16. #3216
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    Quote Originally Posted by almost View Post
    The reason why I ask about form J is:

    https://www.uscis.gov/i-485supj

    Use Supplement J to:
    •Confirm that the job offered to you in Form I-140, Petition for Alien Worker, remains a bona fide job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I 485, Application to Register Permanent Residence or Adjust Status, is approved. Beginning Jan. 17, 2017, if you are filing or have previously filed Form I-485 based on being the principal beneficiary of a valid Form I-140 in an employment-based immigrant visa category that requires a job offer, you will need to file Supplement J instead of submitting a job offer letter;

    OR
    •Request job portability under INA section 204(j) to a new, full-time, permanent job offer that you intend to accept once your Form I-485 is approved. This new job offer must be in the same or a similar occupational classification as the job offered to you in the Form I-140 that is the basis of your Form I-485. (For more information about how USCIS determines which jobs are same or similar please see PM-602-0122: Determining Whether a New Job is in “the Same or a Similar Occupational Classification” for Purposes of Section 204(j) Job Portability (PDF, 205 KB) (March 18, 2016) (PDF, 205 KB)
    My lawyer once told me that I never should volunteer more information than what is asked and/or required. If the RFE lists 3 items, you supply only those--fully and quickly. If they want additional information, they will RFE again.

  17. #3217
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    Quote Originally Posted by newsletter1978 View Post
    Hello freinds, If my PD becomes current does it make sense to apply for EAD with I485? should i just wait for my GC without applying for EAD.
    Always seek full benefits that you are entitled to. The PD’s becoming current is no guarantee that you will get your GC in a timely manner, or even if you get the GC at all, since dates can retrogress.

    File for EAD/AP together. Put both forms in the same envelope. Put a post-it on both forms with bold words “EAD/AP COMBO card requested”.

  18. #3218
    hello experts, kindly throw light if you are absolutely sure of the answer. I have an approved I140 with an old employer. It was approved many years back and has 'never' been revoked or withdrawn, it is just sitting idle with them. My old employer "wont" be helping with 485 stage and my priority has became current now. My question is: can I use the approved I140 for requesting the 3 year H1B extension with a different employer, even when the Priority Date of the approved I140 has become current now. Again I wont be filing 485 with the old employer. Please advise..

    Thanks and Regards,

  19. #3219
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    Quote Originally Posted by godhelp View Post
    hello experts, kindly throw light if you are absolutely sure of the answer. I have an approved I140 with an old employer. It was approved many years back and has 'never' been revoked or withdrawn, it is just sitting idle with them. My old employer "wont" be helping with 485 stage and my priority has became current now. My question is: can I use the approved I140 for requesting the 3 year H1B extension with a different employer, even when the Priority Date of the approved I140 has become current now. Again I wont be filing 485 with the old employer. Please advise..

    Thanks and Regards,
    I'm not going to say I am absolutely sure of the answer - I'm not a lawyer.

    You may find this USCIS memo helpful.

    The pertinent part is:
    2. AC21 §104(c) Guidance for Aliens Subject to Per Country Visa Limitations Pursuant to AC21 §104(c),

    an alien is eligible for an extension of H-1B status if the alien is the beneficiary of an I-140 petition and would be eligible to be granted immigrant status but for the application of per country limitations applicable to immigrants under INA § 203(b)(1), (2) or (3).

    Despite the title of AC21 §104(c), referring to “one-time” protection, USCIS may grant such H-1B extensions, in a maximum of three year increments, until such time as the alien’s application for adjustment of status has been processed and a decision made thereupon.

    AC21 § 104(c) is applicable when an alien, who is the beneficiary of an approved I-140 petition, is eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status but for application of a per country limitation to which that alien is subject or, alternatively, if the immigrant preference category applicable to that alien is, as a whole, “unavailable”. Any petitioner seeking an H-1B extension on behalf of an H-1B alien beneficiary pursuant to AC21 §104(c) must thus establish that at the time of filing for such extension, the alien is not eligible to be granted lawful permanent resident status on account of the per country immigrant visa limitations or, alternatively, because the immigrant preference classification applicable to the alien is “unavailable”.

    In order to make a determination as to the H-1B alien beneficiary’s eligibility for an extension of H1B status under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21, USCIS adjudicators are instructed to review the Department of State Immigrant Visa Bulletin that was in effect at the time of filing of the Form I-129 petition. If, on the date of filing of the H-1B petition, the Visa Bulletin shows that the alien was subject to a per country or worldwide visa limitation in accordance with the alien’s immigrant visa “priority date”, then the H-1B extension request under the provisions of §104(c) of AC21 may be granted. To establish the alien’s priority date, USCIS may accept a copy of the H-1B alien beneficiary’s Form I-140 petition approval notice.
    My reading of the above is that you would not be eligible to file for a 3 year extension under AC21 104(c) if the PD and category of the I-140 is current at the time the extension is filed.

    You should still be able to file for a 1 year extension under AC21 106(a), for a PERM/I-140 filed for more than 365 days.

    The post is more to point you in the right direction for information that might be helpful.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  20. #3220
    thanks Spec for throwing light. I truly appreciate. Can you also please share the excerpt as to what AC21 106 (a) officially says, like you provided for AC21 104 (c). Any other expert with different opinion as to what Spec shared ??

  21. #3221
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    Quote Originally Posted by godhelp View Post
    thanks Spec for throwing light. I truly appreciate. Can you also please share the excerpt as to what AC21 106 (a) officially says, like you provided for AC21 104 (c). Any other expert with different opinion as to what Spec shared ??
    Here's what AC21 106(a) and (b) say.

    Here's the full text of the AC21 Bill.

    Here's a USCIS memo that discusses AC21 106(a) (see Section II).
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  22. #3222
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    Here's what AC21 106(a) and (b) say.

    Here's the full text of the AC21 Bill.

    Here's a USCIS memo that discusses AC21 106(a) (see Section II).
    I am no expert, but have personal experience with little bit similar situation. Back in 2012 when the dates (for PD of Feb, 2010) became current, I was with another employer and had decided to join my old employer with whom I had an approved I-140. First thing they told me was that they can not file H1-B extension (for me to join them back), as long as the dates are current. They had to first file the I-485 and wait for the dates to retrogress (which duly happened within a month or so) and then file H1-B extension.
    Hope this helps.

    Thanks

  23. #3223
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    Quote Originally Posted by march1612 View Post
    Spec,

    The link takes us to June-2017 visa predictions and not 2018.
    Damn! You're right.

    Serves me right for using a Trackitt link.

    Have deleted my post and yours that quotes it.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  24. #3224
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    Let's try again.

    Link

    June 26, 2018

    Check-in with DOS’s Charlie Oppenheim re the July 2018 Visa Bulletin

    Employment-Based Preference Categories

    EB-1 China and EB-1 India remain steady at January 1, 2012, and Charlie anticipates this date will hold for the remainder of the fiscal year. It is hoped that these categories will become current again on October 1, 2018, but demand trends will be monitored over the summer. If USCIS District Offices are not interviewing EB-1 China and EB-1 India applicants with priority dates beyond the established final action date, Charlie may not have clear visibility into total demand. If there is a surge in demand for these categories beginning in October, it could cause a final action date to be imposed more quickly in the fiscal year than otherwise anticipated.

    Charlie expects that a final action date for EB-1 Worldwide will be imposed either in August or September, but notes that the category will return to current in October.

    EB-2 India breaks into 2009, advancing almost three months to March 15, 2009 in July, and is likely to hold at that date through this fiscal year. Charlie has significant demand in his pending demand file for this category and chose this date to offset the low demand for numbers under the worldwide annual limit through mid-May. This advancement of the EB-2 India final action date will help ensure that all EB-2 visa numbers are used by the end of the fiscal year.

    EB-2 Worldwide demand has been increasing in recent weeks, but it is too early to tell if it will be sustained. If this trend continues or increases, Charlie may need to impose a final action date in August or September. If that occurs, EB-2 Worldwide will return to current in October.

    Demand for EB-2 China has been low in recent months despite the steady movement of the final action date. In July, EB-2 China will leap forward four months to January 1, 2015, in an effort to generate demand. EB-3 China demand is extremely high, attributable to hundreds of downgrades, and has reached its per country limit. This results in the final action dates for EB-2 China and EB-3 China flipping again-with EB-2 China now a full two years ahead of EB-3 China. Members should not expect any further advancement in EB-3 China this fiscal year, with the final action date returning to June 1, 2015 in October. Charlie will continue to watch this and notes that as the final action dates for EB-2 China and EB-3 China get closer together, we may see the downgrade trend of the last few years start to diminish.

    As predicted, EB-4 Mexico exhausted its annual limit and in July, its final action date will track that of EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras at February 8, 2016. Charlie expects EB-4 Mexico to return to a final action date of October 22, 2016 in October but predicts that the final action date for EB-4 El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras will likely hold for the first few months of the next fiscal year.

    EB-4 India demand is increasing and may result in the imposition of a final action date in August or September. If that occurs, the category will return to current in October.

    EB-5 China Non-Regional Center and Regional Center will hold at August 1, 2014 in July and is expected to remain at that date at least through September.

    Family-Based Preference Categories

    The family-based preference categories continue to advance modestly. Charlie notes low response rates to Agent of Choice Letters, particularly in FB-3, which is causing the dates to move somewhat more rapidly than they otherwise would.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  25. #3225
    I note the absence of any discussion on EB3 India and Eb3 ROW demand.

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