I dont mind at all Aceman. I understand you are predicting since I asked you. I am ok either ways. Worst case Oct VB will let me file my AOS , so I am honestly fine. But I salute you guys optimism, calculative power and glad to be an audience.
I dont mind at all Aceman. I understand you are predicting since I asked you. I am ok either ways. Worst case Oct VB will let me file my AOS , so I am honestly fine. But I salute you guys optimism, calculative power and glad to be an audience.
Guru's , I am a newbie to calculate. Kindly correct me if I am wrong.Calculation is based on April 2018 inventory for 2018 FY.
EB1
54729-42596 (Oct-Jan)=12133
42596-12433 (Jan-Apr)=30163
Visa Available :40000-12133-30163= -2296 additional visa's needed to clear the backlog , clearly shows No spill over from EB1
EB2
48236-39686 (Oct-Jan)=8550
39686-24616 (Jan-Apr)=15070
Visa available:=40,000-8550-15070=16380 visa's available
EB3:
24639-17157(Oct-Jan)=7482
17157-8293(Jan-Apr)=14264
Visa Available:=40,000-7482-14264=18254 visa's available
EB4
2089-1480(Oct-Jan)=609
1480-1142(Jan-Apr)=338
Visa available:10,000-609-338=9053 visa's available
EB5:
1203-804(Oct-Jan)=399
804-615(Jan-Apr)=189
Visa Available:10,000-399-189=9412 visa's available
Total unused Visa's available: 53099-2296=50803 unused as of April 2018.
Even as far back as January, CO reported that EB1-I had used 7k. That had probably risen to around 10k by the time retrogression was imposed. At that time, EB1C had already used 4.5k.Originally Posted by Jagan01
Retrogression was imposed to allow enough visas during the rest of the FY for Countries that had not already reached the 7% limit.
It's impossible to tell what the EB1 demand is from the April Inventory. It's at least 4k from India plus another 2k from China for cases not at Field Offices. Some interviews in EB1 have been carried out since retrogression. Policy dictates those cases be returned to TSC for final approval when visas become available. You can also add any CP cases, which for China may be significant. In the 6 months before retrogression, EB1-C used 1.5k EB1 CP visas.
I don't know how many spare visas people are expecting from EB3. I suspect most people think it's a figure far higher than reality will be.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Easier said than done, Q.
EB2I PD: 08/23/2010 | NBC : MSC21903****
I-485 RD: 10/28/2020 | ND: 12/08/2020 | FP: 03/02/2021 | Approved: 09/22/2021
I-485J ND: 08/11/2021 | Approved: 09/22/2021
I-693 RFE: 08/30/2021 (Fom local FO) - RFER 09/15/2021
I-765, I-131 RD: 12/18/2020 | FP: 03/15/2021 | Exp. Request 07/21/2021 - Humanitarian Reason (07/28/2021 - Assigned to officer) | Approval: pending
I-485 New card production: 9/18/2021
I-485 Approval: 9/22/2021
Green card mailed: 9/22/2021
Green card received : 9/24/2021
You can't really use the USCIS Inventory from April 2018. It's not like for like with previous reports because it no longer includes Field Office cases.
Also the USCIS Inventory only deals with AOS cases and doesn't include CP cases. Some categories and Countries have have very large CP usage. EB5 is almost all CP.
The best information we have is from CO's recent PP presentation.
That tells us that in the period October 2017 to March 2018 (H1), the following number of visas had been used:
This is basically a repeat of what I posted in post #2901
First, visa usage in the 6 month Oct-Mar period. The only guess in the table is USCIS EB4 approvals. I think it is a fair guess.
All Visa Issuances - October 2017 to March 2018
Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total --- Left H2
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ---- 10,920
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ---- 20,448
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ---- 21,567
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ----- 4,926
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ----- 3,922
Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ---- 61,783
DOS Figures above match previously published data.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
I have been there ... hence the wisdom of hindsightEasier said than done, Q.
Let's correct it ---do notTRY NOT TO postpone anything waiting for a GC.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Hi Spec,
Being tired of watching and seeing EB3 visas continuously allocated to other categories, I finally moved to EB2I with a PD of Feb 2009. It's with the same company so either category will work for me. I have a feeling that date may be current for EB2I and EB3I at the same time.
Based on your statement, it seems EB3-I needs to really move forward and can probably catch up or surpass EB2I even in this FY. No wonder CO did not give any date for EB3I. Based on the I-140 data that was released, I am certain the bottom is going to fall off EB3I.
But then EB3s and EB1s all need interviews which cannot give them GCs this FY. Can CO use this logic to justify his movement of EB2I WITHOUT moving EB1I? After all, they are the only ones who do not need interviews. Otherwise there will surely be wastage.
Don't let GC hold you back; there's not a whole lot to lose except a dollar amount.I have been there ... hence the wisdom of hindsight
Let's correct it ---do notTRY NOT TO postpone anything waiting for a GC.
I'm a little lucky with EAD and because of that my wife is working (she started her MBA when she was on H4). We bought our house few months before getting EAD (On H1) and the job I have now is probably the one I've had even if I had GC, so not much impact other than left a Sr Manager promotion opportunity last month and travel pain on AP.
That's being said, I have friends who have bought houses/settled down on H1 with a PD of 2013. Some, however, are not willing to settle down because of this uncertainty. The way I explain to them is there's a lot to gain and not much to lose to improve the quality of life.
Let's say life is uncertain with PD of 2013/14; you can still settle down in your city of choice; the worst that can happen is you will have to sell your house at 10-15% loss. Your belongings will ship with you if you have to go to India. Cars can be sold pretty quickly with little lost. So, you get to enjoy life and the worst that can happen is you lose 30-60K, and it's just money. Imagine the quality of life/enjoyment/memories you'll make in that time.
I'm on AP on still like to travel for vacations despite the pain associated with which flight you get to select and which country might slap you with a transit visa (Mexico visa was a pain; you have to apply for tourist visa if you have AP and mexican embassy is not the easiest to deal with). When we go to India, we still stop in Europe for a quick vacation (again, not Germany/Lufthansa etc) but it's doable.
so, don't let GC hold you back. Try to do what you would do if you had GC
Just my Thu morning deep thoughts
Quite possibly.
I said last year that the EB3-I dates needed to be moved forward to allow enough time for cases to be ready for adjudication in FY2018 and avoid the situation we are now in.Based on your statement, it seems EB3-I needs to really move forward and can probably catch up or surpass EB2I even in this FY. No wonder CO did not give any date for EB3I. Based on the I-140 data that was released, I am certain the bottom is going to fall off EB3I.
I blame USCIS for for not allowing Filing Dates to be used. CO has been too conservative, but he has to tread a thin line with FAD because that date also allows approval of cases within the Cut Off Date. He also has very poor information from USCIS on upcoming demand.
Filing Dates were introduced specifically to allow filing and inventory control without approval.
CO now has a chance to subvert USCIS actions. Moving the FAD for EB3-I is essentially the same as the Filing date for the rest of the FY. No new applications can possibly be adjudicated in the time left in the FY and he has no worries of too many EB3-I approvals being made. USCIS cannot refuse to honor the Final Action Date.
I hope CO sticks it to USCIS and moves the dates for EB3-I a long way (several years). He can retrogress the FAD for October 2018, when the new allocation kicks in. CO will then have some idea of potential demand from EB-I in the future.
Not all remaining EB1 need interviews. The April Inventory suggests that up to 5.6k EB1-India & China AOS cases exist that do not need an interview. In addition, there are likely a reasonable number of EB1-China CP cases that could be adjudicated.But then EB3s and EB1s all need interviews which cannot give them GCs this FY. Can CO use this logic to justify his movement of EB2I WITHOUT moving EB1I? After all, they are the only ones who do not need interviews. Otherwise there will surely be wastage.
I think this subject is exhausted - I won't comment on it again.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
If Visa Bulletin is not out by tomorrow EOD, I think it is fair enough to assume there might be some bad news for EB2-I. EB2-ROW approvals are catching up with the supply.
just saw on trackitt a person with pd 9-apr-2009 got rfe NSC. both NSC and TSC are consistent(dates) with RFEs
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
Yes, I really hope he does that which will teach USCIS a lesson. USCIS made the Filing Dates null and void making life difficult for CO, so he will have no option to move FAD and do what he used to do before when there was only 1 date. Giving USCIS any authority in the VB is never a good idea.
Thanks for the summary. I agree we have beaten this horse to death. Let's see what the future VBs say!
After a lot of thought process based on the data and feedback, I kind of came to conclusion that CO wants to move EB2-I and EB3-I hand in hand to reduce porting and better visa usage. He will stick with 2009 dates.
Thanks Oraklebaba
Thanks Oraklebaba
So, the chance of CO doing better than his own predictions looks high, isn't it?
May 2010 / December 2010 for 2018 EB2 / EB3 India - a good dream to ponder on :-)
Are you serious OR are you being sarcastic ?
A very serious wish. I don't do sarcasm with dates.
Looking at the RFE's for EB2 I, it has a potential to go well into 2009, so add some optimistic ingredient to try and push the dates further.
You are missing the wood for the trees bro.
If you see the slide in the above post by @spectator, it is very clear that the SO will be utilized by EB1 before any remnants can fall down to EB2. So, unless CO decides to side step the Rule that he has himself quoted and favor EB2, I don't see how EB2I can advance more than its quota of 2800 in this FY or even the next FY. There simply is not enough EB3 SO to clear out EB3I and EB1 and then fall down to EB2. By the start of next FY, CO will have advanced EB3I far out enough to generate sufficient demand to soak up the ALL EB3 SO. I see EB3I being ahead of EB2I till the existing unfiled EB2I and EB3I PERM's are cleared. Certainly there is some substance in the Duplicate and Multiple PERM's argument, but it does nothing to help SO in EB3, which I am afraid may not be more than 10K Per year even with all the MAGA mania going on in USCIS.
I have gotten RFE 3 times now and dates have not moved to Jan 2009. This time being the third time. Getting RFE does mot mean that date will get current.
The dates may love upto May 2009 but your hopes of moving to 2010 are beyond strech.
I loved the anecdote. But I believe in taking a swing to hit the pot.
I agree with the notes/flow provided by Spec. But just because the max speed limit is 65, we are not going to stay under it. The catch is conditions permitting. Almost 80-90% of Eb2 I before May 2009 have to be porters. It also means there is a very little chance of unfiled EB2Â’s before this date. This 3 day movement is reminiscent of EB3 India March 2005 movement early 2017. Once the clog is gone it is going to be a faster movement. Yes I agree the numbers are heavier in EB2, but the potential EB3 surge will help at 30% of porters back into Eb3 queue.
I hate to put water on the spillover party - but to my knowledge
A) there is no explicit Fall Up from EB3 to EB1.
B) I am not aware that CO has the discretion to create such a Fall Up.
C) I'd be mighty surprised if he actually does that in the interest of backlogged folks from India and China.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
Q,
I can't disagree with you.
That was certainly my position before the PP presentation.
In a previous post, I showed that the law does not explicitly allow for SO from EB3 to another EB class within the FY.
This is in contrast to FB where the law specifically allows a circular SO.
If it's specific for FB, why not the same specificity for EB?
There remains the possibility that the PP slide is incorrect.
I agree with your view that it wouldn't fall under CO's discretionary powers. The law is so complex and interlinked, that perhaps some other provision in the INA allows him to do it.
The proof may only come in the actions and the final figures for the FY.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
So, it seems the movement of EB2I to March 2009 is simply based on horizontal SO from EB2ROW due to interview delays. Since CO has not given a date for EB3, maybe he still does not know what to do with the excess EB3 visas?
Like Spec said, it will be interesting to see the final numbers for this FY.
Thanks Spec. I agree that CO may very well have something up his sleeve.
Lets hope so with a realistic view of what's allowed under the law.
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
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