EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Spectator]

However there is a catch according to a corporate lawyer I had interacted with. The offered salary for Eb3 can be considerably less than EB2. So this can result in an unexpected consequence of getting the GC faster with a lower salary :-). This is even applicable for the porting too. If you had already ported and used EB3 to file AOS, the employer is required to pay the employee the salary specified in that petition. It depends on individual employers to enforce it though.

This is incorrect for an EB2-EB3 downward porting scenario.

In a downward porting scenario, the EB3 I-140 is being applied for on the basis of a PERM that has already supported an EB2 I-140.

The EB3 I-140 is using the same PERM, which sets out both the minimum requirements and minimum wage for the position.

Regardless of whether an EB2 or EB3, or both I-140 are applied for, the I-140 application needs to meet the minimum requirements laid out in the PERM certification that supports it (Educational, Experience and Wage).

An EB3 I-140 would have to show a wage that was the higher of either the Prevailing Wage or the Offered Wage in the PERM.

The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.

By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.

It might also be considered fraudulent, if the employer was expecting the beneficiary to carry out the (unmentioned in the PERM) tasks associated with an EB2 application for a lower wage. Lower requirements might also cause it to fail at the recruitment stage, since more qualified applicants might apply for the position - a position probably inaccurately described.

There's no maximum requirements for applying under the EB3 category at the I-140 stage. Whatever category is used at the I-140 stage, the PERM must be an accurate description of the job offered and the minimum requirement for that job.

Even in a EB3-EB2 porting scenario, if ultimately, the I-485 is approved under EB2, the Prevailing Wage from that PERM and I-140 would be applicable.

Only if the beneficiary interfiled back to the EB3 and was approved under EB3, then theoretically, the Prevailing Wage from that PERM could be said to apply (but only for the position and duties in the EB3 I-140). Only an unscrupulous employer would use that, because the beneficiary would (presumably) actually be working at the EB2 level. In that case, they could argue the EB2 PW applies, or leave the employer.

[suninphx]

This is incorrect for an EB2-EB3 downward porting scenario.

In a downward porting scenario, the EB3 I-140 is being applied for on the basis of a PERM that has already supported an EB2 I-140.

The EB3 I-140 is using the same PERM, which sets out both the minimum requirements and minimum wage for the position.

Regardless of whether an EB2 or EB3, or both I-140 are applied for, the I-140 application needs to meet the minimum requirements laid out in the PERM certification that supports it (Educational, Experience and Wage).

An EB3 I-140 would have to show a wage that was the higher of either the Prevailing Wage or the Offered Wage in the PERM.

The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.

By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.

It might also be considered fraudulent, if the employer was expecting the beneficiary to carry out the (unmentioned in the PERM) tasks associated with an EB2 application for a lower wage. Lower requirements might also cause it to fail at the recruitment stage, since more qualified applicants might apply for the position - a position probably inaccurately described.

There's no maximum requirements for applying under the EB3 category at the I-140 stage. Whatever category is used at the I-140 stage, the PERM must be an accurate description of the job offered and the minimum requirement for that job.

Spec,

Is there any data which would tell us how many EB2C downgrade each year? My question is -what's stopping majority EB2C from downgrading?

[AceMan]

Looks like you're out of touch with reality. People are spending 11-12 years of their prime waiting for GC. Mine is March 2010 and I have EAD and I might get GC in 2-5 years...how the heck is that acceptable.

My colleague from brazil had same PD (we joined same company/same month); he's a US citizen since 1.5 -2 years. Your statement is nonsense. Let's not turn this forum into trackitt.

When I ask my friends with PD 2013 EB2 on when they think they will get GC.....they don't have an answer..so yes if there is NO spillover, the wait of 70 years is simple math. How can you depend on a variable to predict something for sure?

It is what the rule says, with the country quota which the hard reality you are talking about 11 years wait. The group extrapolated the current wait time came up with the hyperbole of 70 years. You cannot take an isolated case of person from Brazil, Uganda or Pakistan and present your case as unfair which is not going to fly for people.


You have EAD, I don't have one, Another person after being here for 9 years got his H1 renewal rejected. There are many hard realities around. So instead of calling my statement nonsense you can back up your statement with real facts to counter what I said. That way we can have an intelligent and sensible debates. I will not talk bad of trackitt as they provide a great avenue for sharing lot of information.


I am saying if you are with March 2010 PD, please don't propagate inaccurate and outright lies of information to people with PD after. A positive information gives hope to the people waiting.

Now for 2013 EB3 they don't have any information. So that doesn't mean you take the most pessimistic case and propagate it as the absolute fact and spread the misery. A sensible assumption would be to present a possibility of what is the range of the best case all the way to the worst case.


I will walk the talk I mentioned for the example your provided for EB2 2013.


For the last 8 years we have about 216,000 primaries in Eb2. You have to account for about 30% of duplicate applications, porter etc, which would bring down this number to around 150,000. USCIS uses an average of 1 dependent for EB2 filers. So we have an educated prediction of about 300,000 people in EB2 till April 2018 for India which would be about 35,000 people a year.


The worst scenario => 2900 a year would result in taking 12 years to clear 2009, 12 years 2010, 12 years 2011, 12 years in 2012. He don't have to worry as he would be most probably wont need it, by the time his PD in 2013 comes.

The pessimistic scenario => 5000 a year would result in 8 years 2009, would take 32-35 years for 2013

The reasonable possible scenario (Starting FY 2018) => 12000 a year would result in 3 years 2009, would take close to 10 years from now. However lot of people by this time realize that EB3 is going to be faster, so 2012-13 guys will start to downgrade and get a faster date. This thins the original queue as well.


However the scenario I am seeing is for both EB2 and 3 together for 2018, 2019 and 2020 is 20-25 K visa's. The demand from ROW is definitely going to be low while this admin is in power till Jan 2021. We can only predict what is in the near future.

[AceMan]

The scenario you mention would happen only if a PERM was certified which did not meet EB2 requirements at the I-140 stage. Then it could have lower requirements and a lower Prevailing Wage.

By definition it would not be an EB2-EB3 downgrade. It's just an EB3 application.



These are the people who are the most at this point of time who might be looking to utilize there Eb3 petition

[gcvijay]

Ace\Q\Spec

Your guidance in this forum is of immense help. I have a scenario where my PD is July 2nd 2009 and I'm hoping to see if i would get current in FY 2019 but very much confused which one I should go for. My Eb3 is under my ex employer and reached out to them and they said they haven't cancelled my i-140 and ready to process my Eb3 if it becomes current and then join them. my current employer holds my eb2 with PD 2009. Assuming i apply for EAD for both Eb2 and Eb3 and then choose whichever one comes first or can i join my ex employer after my Eb3 is approved. I'm totally not sure how this works or should I just stick with my current employer and proceed with EAD and wait for GC under Eb2 or is there harm in processing both the applications if EB2\EB3 reaches july 2009. What is the best possibility of EB2 reaching 2009 July? Appreciate your help\advice in this regards.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Is there any data which would tell us how many EB2C downgrade each year? My question is -what's stopping majority EB2C from downgrading?

There's no data as far as I know.

Early on, I think quite a few Chinese chased the best FAD, but it's not been consistent. They would interfile to EB3, then EB2 would become better, so they'd interfile back to EB2. The interfiling process takes time and they missed the window by the time USCIS actioned it .

For China, in the last 48 months:

EB2 better FAD than EB3 - 40%
EB3 better FAD than EB2 - 60%

It might change, since EB3-C FAD is now quite some way ahead of EB2. EB3 has been ahead of EB2 for 9 months now - since October 2017 - the equal longest run.

Some may not have the opportunity, some may be prepared to wait it out in one category or the other.

TBH, the Chinese situation is difficult to discern - they have their own forums (in Chinese) and the translations are imperfect, even if you spend the time finding and following them. I haven't looked in a long time.

I should add that all the Chinese cases I saw were with the same Company and the EB3 I-140 was using the same PERM for the same position as the EB2 I-140.

This may be very different to some Indian reverse porting, where many may already have an EB3 I-140, but with a different Company, for different responsibilities and based on a different PERM to the EB2.

Perhaps one or other needs a different name, since they are completely different situations.

[smuggymba]

It is what the rule says, with the country quota which the hard reality you are talking about 11 years wait. The group extrapolated the current wait time came up with the hyperbole of 70 years. You cannot take an isolated case of person from Brazil, Uganda or Pakistan and present your case as unfair which is not going to fly for people.


You have EAD, I don't have one, Another person after being here for 9 years got his H1 renewal rejected. There are many hard realities around. So instead of calling my statement nonsense you can back up your statement with real facts to counter what I said. That way we can have an intelligent and sensible debates. I will not talk bad of trackitt as they provide a great avenue for sharing lot of information.


I am saying if you are with March 2010 PD, please don't propagate inaccurate and outright lies of information to people with PD after. A positive information gives hope to the people waiting.

Now for 2013 EB3 they don't have any information. So that doesn't mean you take the most pessimistic case and propagate it as the absolute fact and spread the misery. A sensible assumption would be to present a possibility of what is the range of the best case all the way to the worst case.


I will walk the talk I mentioned for the example your provided for EB2 2013.


For the last 8 years we have about 216,000 primaries in Eb2. You have to account for about 30% of duplicate applications, porter etc, which would bring down this number to around 150,000. USCIS uses an average of 1 dependent for EB2 filers. So we have an educated prediction of about 300,000 people in EB2 till April 2018 for India which would be about 35,000 people a year.


The worst scenario => 2900 a year would result in taking 12 years to clear 2009, 12 years 2010, 12 years 2011, 12 years in 2012. He don't have to worry as he would be most probably wont need it, by the time his PD in 2013 comes.

The pessimistic scenario => 5000 a year would result in 8 years 2009, would take 32-35 years for 2013

The reasonable possible scenario (Starting FY 2018) => 12000 a year would result in 3 years 2009, would take close to 10 years from now. However lot of people by this time realize that EB3 is going to be faster, so 2012-13 guys will start to downgrade and get a faster date. This thins the original queue as well.


However the scenario I am seeing is for both EB2 and 3 together for 2018, 2019 and 2020 is 20-25 K visa's. The demand from ROW is definitely going to be low while this admin is in power till Jan 2021. We can only predict what is in the near future.

Please move to trackit; you will have more takers there. See you.

[AceMan]

Please move to trackit; you will have more takers there. See you.

Please, if the moderators have any difficulty in the way I post, they will let me know. If you have some valid information which can counter my points you please post them.

You have the option to ignore my post if you don't have anything to counter it.

[march1612]

If EB2-I and EB3-I move in parallel, How will the unused visas be managed assuming that there would be low demand in EB2-ROW and EB3-ROW & slow Interviews.

[qesehmk]

Please, if the moderators have any difficulty in the way I post, they will let me know. If you have some valid information which can counter my points you please post them.

You have the option to ignore my post if you don't have anything to counter it.

Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

[AceMan]

Smuggymba has been around a while and has seen this drama, so lets cut him some slack.

I appreciate you sticking to data while supporting your arguments. That's a good way to avoid personal commentary.

Let's keep it that way.

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

Thank you for clarifying the same. I am in the forum to see the view points of different people in the journey to GC and how their opinions are formulated.
So just because I am waiting for 10 years with a 2011 PD, I feel it wrong that I give a unsubstantiated statement to another EB3 guy with 2015 PD "Oh, I waited for 9 years already, so you have to wait minimum of 10 years".

My calculations can be taken as my initial statement. I have been branded eternal optimist in another forum, but I always try to back up the possibility with the real numbers. It is more like an array of possibility.

So when I present this array, I intentionally pick an optimistic snapshot with the explanation why it is possible.

Now coming back to the point, if based on the demand, EB3 I can clear 10-15 K numbers in FY 18/19, it has a high possibility to go well into 2011. I also use the H4-EAD number which was put at around 84K as per December 2017 statistics, to get the minimum number of active primaries.


So using H4EAD as reference the exact number of Primaries from 2008-2017 is between 84,000 to 302,000 for both EB2 and 3 India.

So the range of actual filers will be a between 168000 - 604000 if we include 1 dependent per primary as specified in the last document.

So if I calculate the average number of filers per year for the last 11 years, I would say we average from 15000- 55000 people primaries and dependents for both (2 and 3) waiting.


Now we have the base of 6000 (2+3) visas a year to a potential of 25000 (arbitrary number for unused visas) a year.

We have seen the saving potential on Meryll investments website, use the same logic and put these numbers into calculation we get a range which can make sense for every body.

[SonaMoni77]

Eb3 and EB2 India will go hand in hand for a while, may be till first quarter end of 19. Then it has to be EB3 all the way. The numbers don't lie.

Aceman,

What do think about EB1 India? I rely a lot on your numbers.

I mean is there a chance hey can atleast progess a bit to somehwre between 2012 to 2018 in this year (before Oct VB)

[AceMan]

Aceman,

What do think about EB1 India? I rely a lot on your numbers.

I mean is there a chance hey can atleast progess a bit to somehwre between 2012 to 2018 in this year (before Oct VB)

For all practical purpose there is no body in the EB1 queue before 2015. Not discounting some isolated EB2/3 guys who did masters here along with similar people who move outside the country and came back as Managers and now qualifies for EB1.

So July bulletin at the very minimum should reach 1 Jan 2016.

[SonaMoni77]

For all practical purpose there is no body in the EB1 queue before 2015. Not discounting some isolated EB2/3 guys who did masters here along with similar people who move outside the country and came back as Managers and now qualifies for EB1.

So July bulletin at the very minimum should reach 1 Jan 2016.

Wow! I am in 2014 priority date for EB2->EB1B . That will be so awesome...Thank u Aceman...u r great!

[AceMan]

Wow! I am in 2014 priority date for EB2->EB1B . That will be so awesome...Thank u Aceman...u r great!

Hold your horses sir, I expect the dates to move strictly on the basis of the numbers on January 2018 PI with my reasoning for the same. It is purely under the control of CO.

I need to give a disclaimer that I had previously predicted that FY 17 EB3 I would end up with a March-April 2007 PD based on the number crunching. Not only it ended up in October 2006 but did not move at all for the first quarter of FY 18.

[Spectator]

I have to admit that EB1 for the rest of FY2018 has been bugging me, since movement has not been mentioned.

CO in his presentation showed that unused EB3 visas Fall Up to EB1

Attachment 1342
Only when demand from EB1 has been satisfied can visa numbers Fall Down to EB2.

If EB2 wishes to benefit from any unused EB3 visas, then a prerequisite seems to be that EB1-India and EB1-China would first need to be made Current to encompass all possible demand in EB1.

Due to interview delays, it's possible, despite a large numbers of pending applications, that the demand in EB1 does not materialize within the FY and the visas can then Fall Down to EB2.

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

[srimurthy]

p.s. - My personal take - 70 years is definite hyperbole and your calculations seem a bit rosy to me. But realistically speaking even if the wait time is 15 years plus - that's an entire generation and most precious time lost in your lifetime. As such ... i always insist -- do not postpone anything waiting for a GC.

Makes it more difficult and possible for kids becoming ineligible to apply for 485 if they age out. So sad

[march1612]

I have to admit that EB1 for the rest of FY2018 has been bugging me, since movement has not been mentioned.

CO in his presentation showed that unused EB3 visas Fall Up to EB1

Attachment 1342
Only when demand from EB1 has been satisfied can visa numbers Fall Down to EB2.

If EB2 wishes to benefit from any unused EB3 visas, then a prerequisite seems to be that EB1-India and EB1-China would first need to be made Current to encompass all possible demand in EB1.

Due to interview delays, it's possible, despite a large numbers of pending applications, that the demand in EB1 does not materialize within the FY and the visas can then Fall Down to EB2.

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

Thanks for information Spec.

Unless there is a change in process from new Administration. Based on Previous Administration's Executive Order, CO is obligated to use the Spillover within the current FY.
With the reference to this Executive order , filing dates are published in every Visa Bulletin.

Having said that, If EB1 is not current, he might be obligated by law ( unless it has been changed) to apply unused numbers to EB2-I.

[Hyperion]

On the other hand, if CO does not make all of EB1 Current, then by his own logic, he cannot give any spare EB3 visas to EB2.

If CO applies the same logic, Shouldn't he make EB3 current before moving the visas to EB1?

[Spectator]

Thanks for information Spec.

Unless there is a change in process from new Administration. Based on Previous Administration's Executive Order, CO is obligated to use the Spillover within the current FY.
With the reference to this Executive order , filing dates are published in every Visa Bulletin.

Having said that, If EB1 is not current, he might be obligated by law ( unless it has been changed) to apply unused numbers to EB2-I.

Well, if CO doesn't think there are enough spare visas to make EB1 Current, then he's not going to move the EB2-I FAD forward either.

If a case isn't current in the VB, it can't be approved.

Moving the date for the last month probably wouldn't help that much, because there's no time to send out RFEs, receive the reply and adjudicate the case. I'm not seeing much RFE action for 2009 cases at present.

[Spectator]

If CO applies the same logic, Shouldn't he make EB3 current before moving the visas to EB1?

Fair question - I deserved that.

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

[march1612]

Fair question - I deserved that.

EB3-I can't have any demand beyond April 2008 that can be realized in the FY. Tt would be beneficial if the FAD for EB3-I is pushed much further so that more than enough cases can be approved next year. We can't see a repeat, caused yet again by not moving Cut Off Dates early enough. I don't see that CO has much choice but to advance EB3-I, even if he pulls it back at the beginning of FY2019, when initially only limited numbers are available.

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

So, the only source for EB2-I advancement is unused numbers from EB2-ROW. Not sure how many unused numbers are expected to be available in July.

[Jagan01]

EB1 is different. There's potentially loads of demand between the current FAD of 01JAN12 and March 2018 when the FAD was last Current for EB1-IC. It probably more like March 2017 for most cases to cause demand, considering processing times.

EB1-IC were retrogressed because they had too much demand. The process, as outlined, requires that demand has a chance to be satisfied first.

Spec,
Based on the latest pending inventory EB1I only has 4k of inventory. Not sure why you say "loads of demand" ? Don't you think that a demand of 4k might get fulfilled by the SO from EB1ROW ?

[suninphx]

Well, if CO doesn't think there are enough spare visas to make EB1 Current, then he's not going to move the EB2-I FAD forward either.

If a case isn't current in the VB, it can't be approved.

Moving the date for the last month probably wouldn't help that much, because there's no time to send out RFEs, receive the reply and adjudicate the case. I'm not seeing much RFE action for 2009 cases at present.

It's possible that CO is moving EB2I to Mar'09 solely based on EB2ROW spillover he is anticipating for this FY. He either doesn't think a) that EB3->Eb1->EB2 route is possible this FY or b) doesn't want to calculate that just yet. For any (already pending AOS) case to be comfortably greened this FY - RFE needs to be issued by Jul mid I guess.

[AceMan]

So, the only source for EB2-I advancement is unused numbers from EB2-ROW. Not sure how many unused numbers are expected to be available in July.

Unfortunately that is what is there for EB2 I as of July. However all is not lost, based on the RFE's reported by EB2 people for 2009. Most of them are Nebraska though, so there is a possibility of some Eb2 I usage.

I am optimistic that EB2 I will get much more numbers it received in the last 3 years.