EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[AceMan]

I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.

Hmm, It is too early to get optimistic for your date. The RFE activities in EB2 I has been all before March 2009. However watch out for the 1st week of June to see if the RFE's are being issued for people beyond March 2009. That might give us a pointer if it is a real one, on just a trigger for expired medicals.

As of now, I am not sure what to make out for July bulletin for EB2 India. My logical assumption would be 1st April 2009 for EB 2 I and the lack of visibility for EB3 I indicates the same date possible for EB3 as well?

If EB3 I dates are moved to December 2009, lot of EB2 I filers may be eligible to file Supp J and use the available numbers.

[newyorker123]

I hear lot of chatter that EB2 dates are going to jump in coming months.
My date is in early 2012.
Gurus , very optimistically speaking, is there any chance of my date being current in 2019 or even 2020 ?

[idliman]

I hear lot of chatter that EB2 dates are going to jump in coming months.
My date is in early 2012.
Gurus , very optimistically speaking, is there any chance of my date being current in 2019 or even 2020 ?

So you are in early 2012. You should realize by now that EB2I and EB3I are going to move together very soon. My crude estimate is 18,000 in 2011, 18,000 in 2010 and 10,000 in 2009. There are approx 46,000 (EB2I+EB3I) applicants before you. Without spillover it will take nearly 9 years for your dates to become current. Last year EB2I did not have any meaningful spillover. So, I don't think anyone can predict now. But, you need huge amount of spillover (in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 per year) for early 2012 to be current. These huge spillovers are usually associated with a recession or financial market collapse or some extreme event which might not be beneficial to your job security. With these crude numbers, you can predict yourself what needs to happen for you to become current. Sorry. I am just trying to present the facts without adding sugar.

[newyorker123]

Thank you, I will go back into my cave. EB1A / EB1C seems to be the only way out.

[march1612]

So you are in early 2012. You should realize by now that EB2I and EB3I are going to move together very soon. My crude estimate is 18,000 in 2011, 18,000 in 2010 and 10,000 in 2009. There are approx 46,000 (EB2I+EB3I) applicants before you. Without spillover it will take nearly 9 years for your dates to become current. Last year EB2I did not have any meaningful spillover. So, I don't think anyone can predict now. But, you need huge amount of spillover (in the range of 15,000 to 20,000 per year) for early 2012 to be current. These huge spillovers are usually associated with a recession or financial market collapse or some extreme event which might not be beneficial to your job security. With these crude numbers, you can predict yourself what needs to happen for you to become current. Sorry. I am just trying to present the facts without adding sugar.

What would be meaningful movement that we can anticipate for EB2-I in July, Aug, Sept 2018? Would it reach May 2010?

[LASHAB]

Looking at pending inventory (latest reports are not accurate at all, but considering historic data) with reasonable spillover we should clear 2009, but again the processing timelines in fieldoffices and related potential wastage is still not quantifiable. In worst case scenarios we are looking at March-April 2009. This is what CO had predicted few months back. Going by past years, worst case scenario maybe the likely one, unfortunately.

[vckomara]

Hmm, It is too early to get optimistic for your date. The RFE activities in EB2 I has been all before March 2009. However watch out for the 1st week of June to see if the RFE's are being issued for people beyond March 2009. That might give us a pointer if it is a real one, on just a trigger for expired medicals.

As of now, I am not sure what to make out for July bulletin for EB2 India. My logical assumption would be 1st April 2009 for EB 2 I and the lack of visibility for EB3 I indicates the same date possible for EB3 as well?

If EB3 I dates are moved to December 2009, lot of EB2 I filers may be eligible to file Supp J and use the available numbers.

Not optimistic as I have seen same thing happen last year even for Oct-2009 PDs. With EB2 dates hardly moving week or two every month, what makes you think it will move 4 months in next bulletin? What is the reasoning behind optimism?

[AceMan]

Not optimistic as I have seen same thing happen last year even for Oct-2009 PDs. With EB2 dates hardly moving week or two every month, what makes you think it will move 4 months in next bulletin? What is the reasoning behind optimism?

Few factors. Low demand in EB2-ROW, sustained steady reports of RFE for people in EB2 I before March 31st 2009 in multiple forums. Above all July being the start of final quarter for FY18. So even if the RFE's come in June, people should be able to respond to them before September which can result in the numbers getting utilized this FY itself.

EB2 I 2009 has close to 10 K people waiting for GC without the need for interview.

[texas_]

An off-topic question:

Can one apply for 140 based EAD (compelling circumstances) if Priority Date is less than 1 year range?

If so I heard one has to go for consular processing for I 485.

Please advise;

[AceMan]

An off-topic question:

Can one apply for 140 based EAD (compelling circumstances) if Priority Date is less than 1 year range?

If so I heard one has to go for consular processing for I 485.

Please advise;

:-D, I understand your question and reason for the same from your individual perspective,
However the number of applicants in 2016 under this clause can be counted by hand if you are not aware.

So if you think what you heard is right, why is the number of applicants in 2016 under this compelling circumstances this low?

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

Without any legislative process, EB for India is in soup, you can expect some spill over due to increase in time process due to mandatory 485 interviews but these will catch up next year.. You may not have any spill over next year again.. So our good bet is spreading news on HR 392 BILL which is having some chances of passing in house.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...house-bill/392

I see that related Senate version is having only 4 sponsors, which needs some push.
keep calling your senators.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...enate-bill/281

Regards
Tatikonda

Few factors. Low demand in EB2-ROW, sustained steady reports of RFE for people in EB2 I before March 31st 2009 in multiple forums. Above all July being the start of final quarter for FY18. So even if the RFE's come in June, people should be able to respond to them before September which can result in the numbers getting utilized this FY itself.

EB2 I 2009 has close to 10 K people waiting for GC without the need for interview.

[AceMan]

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...r_May_2018.PDF

Latest information on approved I-140 till April 2018.

[sathya4x4]

does this bill HR392 include funding for beautiful wall?
no?
"I wont sign it" says Don!
Trump says he won’t sign immigration bill without money for border wall
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/tr...san-2018-05-24

[altek001]

Hi All,

Without any legislative process, EB for India is in soup, you can expect some spill over due to increase in time process due to mandatory 485 interviews but these will catch up next year.. You may not have any spill over next year again.. So our good bet is spreading news on HR 392 BILL which is having some chances of passing in house.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...house-bill/392

I see that related Senate version is having only 4 sponsors, which needs some push.
keep calling your senators.

https://www.congress.gov/bill/115th-...enate-bill/281

Regards
Tatikonda

HR 4760 is a bill that covers all areas that President Trump wants in terms of border security, ending chain migration and increasing EB counts by 45%. Paul Ryan could not bring this bill to a floor vote since eight months. Does anyone in the forum still think HR392 is getting any attention other than twitter or RHC/IV propaganda. Per country limit is not just for EB but FB cases also come under it. Removing caps have a broader implicit on diversity and there is no way Congress can change it.

There is a resolution to get house members to vote on all 4 bills by end of June'18 to see what each representative stands for on Immigration and if they just talk or walk the talk. This will decide their reelection in November. It's an utter failure since DACA ended that kept legal immigrants in Limbo.

[qesehmk]

Per country limit is not just for EB but FB cases also come under it. Removing caps have a broader implicit on diversity and there is no way Congress can change it.

True.

Country cap is critical for the state department and their objectives. It is a useful tool to cultivate foreign talent and intelligence. For commerce dept and american corporations country cap is useful to continue H1B slavery.

Removal of country cap is not going to happen through advocacy only. The backlogged indian community needs to make a sustained campaign to highlight slavery which is so unamerican. They need to fight this in the courts. Even then the chances are slim.

Trump is a monkey wrench in the way the government was run (regardless of party lines). He may actually be useful. But good luck trying to get him to do it ... not just because he is so unpredictable but also because how much racist his entire administration and Trump supporters are.

If you are doing any serious work on removal of country caps then you better understand these fundamentals to ensure some degree of success.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I have a question and sorry for the diversion:

When ROWs file I-140 and I-485 concurrently, do they only get EAD/AP after the I-140 is approved or do they still get it in the normal processing time which is around 90 days regardless of when the I-140 is approved? Logic tells me that they should get EAD/AP only after the I-140 is approved, which begs me to ask why they simply do not get it done in premium processing to speed up their GC issuance?

[Spectator]

I have a question and sorry for the diversion:

When ROWs file I-140 and I-485 concurrently, do they only get EAD/AP after the I-140 is approved or do they still get it in the normal processing time which is around 90 days regardless of when the I-140 is approved? Logic tells me that they should get EAD/AP only after the I-140 is approved, which begs me to ask why they simply do not get it done in premium processing to speed up their GC issuance?

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for bringing the discussion back on track.

The approval and issuance of EAD/AP does not depend on the approval of the I-140 - it's a benefit of a pending I-485, not an approved I-140.

[EB2-03252009]

@cyrusmehta

Charlie Oppenheim at AILA DC meeting tonight says that India EB-2 cutoff date in July 2018 visa bulletin will be March 15, 2009 but there will be advances in India EB-3 and China EB-2 through the summer. No advances in China EB-3. Does not have any cutoff dates for them as yet

CO did say that 3/15/09 date for EB-2 I would be held for rest of year unless he sees demand bottoming out at end of summer and then there could be some advance a little bit, but he said to not count on that

[iatiam]

@cyrusmehta

Charlie Oppenheim at AILA DC meeting tonight says that India EB-2 cutoff date in July 2018 visa bulletin will be March 15, 2009 but there will be advances in India EB-3 and China EB-2 through the summer. No advances in China EB-3. Does not have any cutoff dates for them as yet

CO did say that 3/15/09 date for EB-2 I would be held for rest of year unless he sees demand bottoming out at end of summer and then there could be some advance a little bit, but he said to not count on that

This is a bit of a bummer since the same dude tweeted about "Rapid" movement not so long ago. So 2-months is now considered rapid? Also, where is CO going to find the adjucated 485s required to fill the visa supply? This movement is worth 2500 visas or so. Even if dates move forward for EB3, there won't be enough time to schedule interviews and approve GCs.

The only good news is that EB3 will move forward and put an end to porting.

Iatiam

[EB3Iwaiting]

This is a bit of a bummer since the same dude tweeted about "Rapid" movement not so long ago. So 2-months is now considered rapid? Also, where is CO going to find the adjucated 485s required to fill the visa supply? This movement is worth 2500 visas or so. Even if dates move forward for EB3, there won't be enough time to schedule interviews and approve GCs.

The only good news is that EB3 will move forward and put an end to porting.

Iatiam

Here is what I feel and I could be completely wrong. The movement CO has given EB2I is probably only based on the horizontal SO from EB2ROW due to delays in GC issuance for mandatory interviews. He has not given any indication where he will move EB3I as he has no idea how many will be issued by the end of the year. I have a feeling that if he sees not enough are issued, he will move EB2I further to reduce wastage. Of course, I could be completely wrong about this thinking.

[EB3Iwaiting]

EB3Iwaiting,

Thanks for bringing the discussion back on track.

The approval and issuance of EAD/AP does not depend on the approval of the I-140 - it's a benefit of a pending I-485, not an approved I-140.

Thanks for the clarification Spec. The benefit of the pending I-485 makes sense, however, if the I-140 is denied, the pending I-485 would be denied anyway which makes the EAD/AP null and void. Kind of makes an odd situation, cos the applicant still has to maintain the underlying non immigrant status.

[vckomara]

@cyrusmehta

Charlie Oppenheim at AILA DC meeting tonight says that India EB-2 cutoff date in July 2018 visa bulletin will be March 15, 2009 but there will be advances in India EB-3 and China EB-2 through the summer. No advances in China EB-3. Does not have any cutoff dates for them as yet

CO did say that 3/15/09 date for EB-2 I would be held for rest of year unless he sees demand bottoming out at end of summer and then there could be some advance a little bit, but he said to not count on that

Does EB2 holding same for rest of the year mean rest of 2018 or until October’18?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Does EB2 holding same for rest of the year mean rest of 2018 or until October’18?

Till Sep 2018 - end of this FY. EB2I gets a fresh set of visas on Oct 1 as it is the start of the next FY.

[texas_]

Till Sep 2018 - end of this FY. EB2I gets a fresh set of visas on Oct 1 as it is the start of the next FY.

EB3 I seems to advance better than EB2 I and catch up at one point this FY.

[Spectator]

Thanks for the clarification Spec. The benefit of the pending I-485 makes sense, however, if the I-140 is denied, the pending I-485 would be denied anyway which makes the EAD/AP null and void. Kind of makes an odd situation, cos the applicant still has to maintain the underlying non immigrant status.

Maintaining status is possible and fairly easy if you happen to be in either H or L status.

For other, non dual intent visa classes, it's not so simple.

Ignoring the obvious F and J classes, let's look at a visa very similar in scope to the H visa - the O visa.

Once the I-485 is received by USCIS, O visa holders are landlocked without an AP in hand.

Without one, if they leave the USA for work or pleasure, then they have abandoned the I-485 application. They can only leave with Advance Parole. Having used it, they have lost their O status.

For many dependents, having an EAD may be their first chance to work, even though it means losing their visa status.

Even if they don't wish to, the EAD enables them to to obtain a SSN. You shouldn't minimize how useful this is. People without a SSN often feel like third class citizens, because it is used for (or helps with) everything in the real world - from the DMV to obtaining credit. This is something achievable without loss of status, as long as they don't use the EAD to work.