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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #2951
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Thank you Spec, for the precise detail - 10 years. In fact I had compiled the statistics of EB3 performace overthe last 10 years, i need to calculate the variance or missed numbers based on this instead of standard 40040. By any chance do you have that handy?
    Any one received RFE for 2009 yet? If yes, up till mid 2009?

  2. #2952
    Quote Originally Posted by texas_ View Post
    Any one received RFE for 2009 yet? If yes, up till mid 2009?
    EB2I with PD 31MAR09 or earlier are getting RFE now. Many such people had reported RFE in trackitt.

  3. #2953
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    EB2I with PD 31MAR09 or earlier are getting RFE now. Many such people had reported RFE in trackitt.
    Thanks Idliman;

  4. #2954
    Quote Originally Posted by texas_ View Post
    Any one received RFE for 2009 yet? If yes, up till mid 2009?

    About 10-15 people reported till March 31st 2009. Last quarter, low demand, low perms, lot of anticipation.

  5. #2955

  6. #2956
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    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Thank you Spec, for the precise detail - 10 years. In fact I had compiled the statistics of EB3 performace overthe last 10 years, i need to calculate the variance or missed numbers based on this instead of standard 40040. By any chance do you have that handy?

    This is probably what you are looking for:


    ----------- Alloc. -- Actual
    Category --- EB3 ------ EB3 ------- Diff.

    FY2017 --- 40,040 --- 37,770 ---- (2,270)
    FY2016 --- 40,137 --- 37,540 ---- (2,597)
    FY2015 --- 41,413 --- 37,450 ---- (3,963)
    FY2014 --- 42,969 --- 42,699 ------ (270)
    FY2013 --- 45,321 --- 43,740 ---- (1,581)
    FY2012 --- 41,456 --- 39,549 ---- (1,907)
    FY2011 --- 40,040 --- 37,425 ---- (2,615)
    FY2010 --- 43,088 --- 42,431 ------ (657)
    FY2009 --- 40,040 --- 39,778 ------ (262)
    FY2008 --- 46,533 --- 47,165 ------- 632

    Total --- 421,037 -- 405,547 --- (15,490)

    Be careful in making a categorical statement that these are lost to EB3-India alone.

    Most EB3 Countries were retrogressed as well over this period. USCIS failings in processing cases in a timely fashion, or DOS moving the dates sufficiently, apply equally to them as well. Ultimately though, EB3-ROW would likely have become Current sooner and EB3-I would have benefited for a longer period.


    This table shows, among other things, how EB3-I has benefited over the period, even though it might have been more if EB3 had been managed properly.

    ----------- Total ------ 7% ------ Total ---- 7% ------------- EB3-I Over/
    Category -- EB1-3 ---- EB1-3 ----- EB4-5 -- EB4-5 --- EB3-I - (Under) vs 7%

    FY2017 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 6,641 -------- 3,838
    FY2016 --- 40,137 ---- 2,810 ----- 9,964 ---- 697 --- 4,617 -------- 1,807
    FY2015 --- 41,413 ---- 2,899 ---- 10,280 ---- 720 --- 7,026 -------- 4,127
    FY2014 --- 42,969 ---- 3,008 ---- 10,667 ---- 747 --- 3,526 ---------- 518
    FY2013 --- 45,321 ---- 3,172 ---- 11,251 ---- 788 --- 7,816 -------- 4,644
    FY2012 --- 41,456 ---- 2,902 ---- 10,291 ---- 720 --- 2,804 ---------- (98)
    FY2011 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 4,002 -------- 1,199
    FY2010 --- 43,088 ---- 3,016 ---- 10,697 ---- 749 --- 3,036 ----------- 20
    FY2009 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 2,304 --------- (499)
    FY2008 --- 46,533 ---- 3,257 ---- 11,552 ---- 809 --- 3,745 ---------- 488

    Total ------------------------------------------------------------- 16,044
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  7. #2957
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    Will there be any spill over from EB4 and EB5 categories? interview process might have effected these categories too.

  8. #2958
    Quote Originally Posted by EB2-03252009 View Post
    Just to jog everyone's memory, ImmigrationGirl (Emily Neumann) and her partner Rahul Reddy are partly responsible for the GC backlog mess that we see today. Search for ITserve video and you will see. These lawyers including Murthy are not the friends of immigrants. Appreciate everyone stop posting links to their websites! Also, please take what they say with a huge pile of sodium chloride.

    Iatiam

  9. #2959
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Just to jog everyone's memory, ImmigrationGirl (Emily Neumann) and her partner Rahul Reddy are partly responsible for the GC backlog mess that we see today. Search for ITserve video and you will see. These lawyers including Murthy are not the friends of immigrants. Appreciate everyone stop posting links to their websites! Also, please take what they say with a huge pile of sodium chloride.

    Iatiam
    I agree with you whole heatedly. It's the Rahul Reddy, Murthy aunty and some US based counter parts are heavily responsible for current back-log.
    I don't give any incentive nothing new that they are saying just posting videos and marketing etc

  10. #2960
    Quote Originally Posted by iatiam View Post
    Just to jog everyone's memory, ImmigrationGirl (Emily Neumann) and her partner Rahul Reddy are partly responsible for the GC backlog mess that we see today. Search for ITserve video and you will see. These lawyers including Murthy are not the friends of immigrants. Appreciate everyone stop posting links to their websites! Also, please take what they say with a huge pile of sodium chloride.

    Iatiam
    Sorry, I am not very active in this forum.
    Can somebody please explain what they did to increase the back-log?

    Thanks

  11. #2961
    Quote Originally Posted by texas_ View Post
    I agree with you whole heatedly. It's the Rahul Reddy, Murthy aunty and some US based counter parts are heavily responsible for current back-log.
    I don't give any incentive nothing new that they are saying just posting videos and marketing etc
    Also, if you read through her blog (which Indian's love BTW), she makes two astounding predictions,

    1. EB3 India will not be current next month
    2. EB2 India will move to 2009

    Obviously it doesn't take very high IQ to make these two predictions. Emily isn't too happy that she might lose some business when dates move ahead.

    Iatiam

  12. #2962
    2018 Apr Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines South Korea Vietnam ROW-SK-VET Total
    EB1 00 00 00 05 29 07 170 211
    EB2 01 05 00 25 117 03 114 265
    EB3 100 98 15 558 39 05 328 1143
    EB4 05 24 01 08 02 02 158 200
    EB5 70 36 15 00 29 87 145 382
    Total 176 163 31 596 216 104 915 2201

  13. #2963
    Year to date Monthly Family Immigrant Visa Issuance

    Url below
    https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

    China India Mexico Philippines ROW Total
    Total 7209 10108 16653 8785 82368 125123

  14. #2964
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    About 10-15 people reported till March 31st 2009. Last quarter, low demand, low perms, lot of anticipation.
    I have received RFE for medicals and I485 supJ and my PD is September 2009

  15. #2965
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    This is probably what you are looking for:


    ----------- Alloc. -- Actual
    Category --- EB3 ------ EB3 ------- Diff.

    FY2017 --- 40,040 --- 37,770 ---- (2,270)
    FY2016 --- 40,137 --- 37,540 ---- (2,597)
    FY2015 --- 41,413 --- 37,450 ---- (3,963)
    FY2014 --- 42,969 --- 42,699 ------ (270)
    FY2013 --- 45,321 --- 43,740 ---- (1,581)
    FY2012 --- 41,456 --- 39,549 ---- (1,907)
    FY2011 --- 40,040 --- 37,425 ---- (2,615)
    FY2010 --- 43,088 --- 42,431 ------ (657)
    FY2009 --- 40,040 --- 39,778 ------ (262)
    FY2008 --- 46,533 --- 47,165 ------- 632

    Total --- 421,037 -- 405,547 --- (15,490)

    Be careful in making a categorical statement that these are lost to EB3-India alone.

    Most EB3 Countries were retrogressed as well over this period. USCIS failings in processing cases in a timely fashion, or DOS moving the dates sufficiently, apply equally to them as well. Ultimately though, EB3-ROW would likely have become Current sooner and EB3-I would have benefited for a longer period.


    This table shows, among other things, how EB3-I has benefited over the period, even though it might have been more if EB3 had been managed properly.

    ----------- Total ---- Total ------ 7% ----- 7% -------------- EB3-I Over/
    Category -- EB1-3 ---- EB4-5 ----- EB1-3 -- EB4-5 --- EB3-I - (Under) vs 7%

    FY2017 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 6,641 -------- 3,838
    FY2016 --- 40,137 ---- 2,810 ----- 9,964 ---- 697 --- 4,617 -------- 1,807
    FY2015 --- 41,413 ---- 2,899 ---- 10,280 ---- 720 --- 7,026 -------- 4,127
    FY2014 --- 42,969 ---- 3,008 ---- 10,667 ---- 747 --- 3,526 ---------- 518
    FY2013 --- 45,321 ---- 3,172 ---- 11,251 ---- 788 --- 7,816 -------- 4,644
    FY2012 --- 41,456 ---- 2,902 ---- 10,291 ---- 720 --- 2,804 ---------- (98)
    FY2011 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 4,002 -------- 1,199
    FY2010 --- 43,088 ---- 3,016 ---- 10,697 ---- 749 --- 3,036 ----------- 20
    FY2009 --- 40,040 ---- 2,803 ----- 9,940 ---- 696 --- 2,304 --------- (499)
    FY2008 --- 46,533 ---- 3,257 ---- 11,552 ---- 809 --- 3,745 ---------- 488

    Total ------------------------------------------------------------- 16,044
    Thanks Spec, Spot on. You read my mind. Yes, the loss was for EB3 as a whole. I was expecting EB3-ROW to be current by FY 15 end, however it became current only for the last quarter of FY 17.

  16. #2966
    Quote Originally Posted by vckomara View Post
    I have received RFE for medicals and I485 supJ and my PD is September 2009
    Nice, did you receive this RFE recently or is it a while?

  17. #2967
    I know there is discussion regarding how much spillover EB1 will use before it carries over to EB2. The spillover flow per DOS (CO) is:
    EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
    EB2 --> EB3
    EB3 --> EB1 --> EB2
    EB4 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
    EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

    I believe that to move EB2 dates, they have to make EB1 current to apply the spillover. All the EB applicants (EB1 through EB3) need an interview if their I-485 was filed on 06MAR17 or later. I am not sure of interview requirements for EB4 and EB5 as they don't have to file I-140. Are they doing interviews when the dates are not current for EB1's? How many EB1 applications are pre adjudicated and ready to go?

  18. #2968
    Quote Originally Posted by idliman View Post
    I know there is discussion regarding how much spillover EB1 will use before it carries over to EB2. The spillover flow per DOS (CO) is:
    EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
    EB2 --> EB3
    EB3 --> EB1 --> EB2
    EB4 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3
    EB5 --> EB1 --> EB2 --> EB3

    I believe that to move EB2 dates, they have to make EB1 current to apply the spillover. All the EB applicants (EB1 through EB3) need an interview if their I-485 was filed on 06MAR17 or later. I am not sure of interview requirements for EB4 and EB5 as they don't have to file I-140. Are they doing interviews when the dates are not current for EB1's? How many EB1 applications are pre adjudicated and ready to go?
    A strict interpretation of the rule, would be if they cannot use the EB3 numbers by September last(FY end) the numbers move over to the FB category for the next FY. However I believe CO has the autonomy to move the dates within the category as he deems fit in the final quarter. Logically the numbers would have to go to EB2 I for the most effective utilization of the numbers, but who knows.

    And from this year onwards we started getting the mandatory interview requests as well. This meant the new filers from March 2017 are not going to be displayed in demand data anymore starting April 2018. July bulletin prediction is definitely going to be a roulette (earlier predictions can be equated to blackjack with card counting) with very limited reliable data.

  19. #2969
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    Quote Originally Posted by vckomara View Post
    I have received RFE for medicals and I485 supJ and my PD is September 2009

    what is your category EB2? EB3?

  20. #2970
    Quote Originally Posted by AceMan View Post
    Nice, did you receive this RFE recently or is it a while?
    I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.

  21. #2971
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    Quote Originally Posted by vckomara View Post
    I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.
    Can you confirm if you are EB2-I?

  22. #2972
    Quote Originally Posted by march1612 View Post
    Can you confirm if you are EB2-I?
    Yes EB-2I September 2009 PD.

  23. #2973
    Quote Originally Posted by vckomara View Post
    I received about 45 days ago and I am in EB-2. Not sure if this means any movement though.
    I am skeptical that it means anything. They sent a bunch of RFEs in 2016 for 2009 PD. It meant nothing then. All it ended up doing was wasting our time and money in doing medicals and other paperwork. I am glad NSC is not sending RFEs in advance this time (based on Trackitt). I rather have the RFE sent after the date is announced current than wasting more money on medicals

  24. #2974
    Quote Originally Posted by horizon View Post
    I am skeptical that it means anything. They sent a bunch of RFEs in 2016 for 2009 PD. It meant nothing then. All it ended up doing was wasting our time and money in doing medicals and other paperwork. I am glad NSC is not sending RFEs in advance this time (based on Trackitt). I rather have the RFE sent after the date is announced current than wasting more money on medicals
    Dear Friends, Kindly please share your best guess,
    as when EB3 India Sep 2009 priority might come current. I am in
    India now, my employer is trying to file my H1B, but looks like
    getting H1B approval is becoming very difficult these days.

  25. #2975
    Quote Originally Posted by godhelp View Post
    Dear Friends, Kindly please share your best guess,
    as when EB3 India Sep 2009 priority might come current. I am in
    India now, my employer is trying to file my H1B, but looks like
    getting H1B approval is becoming very difficult these days.
    Could be in the next few months. Just hang in there. You could get your GC in 1 yr from now.

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