EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[march1612]

Spec, based on the numbers, is it safe to assume EB2-India would move to May-2010?

[Spectator]

If 54% is already used in first 6 months then why would there be rapid movement? I think in context of June 18 bulletin when dates moved just 4 days .., a months movement would feel like rapid movement ��

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

[iatiam]

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

So is it safe to say up to 140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover minus whatever number that has completed the visa interview.

Iatiam

[suninphx]

From the figures, it's clear that in the first 2 quarters, USCIS had fairly large numbers of cases that were received prior to the cut off date for needing an interview.

For instance, on Trackitt, the % of older NIW case approvals is much higher than normal.

For the second half of the FY, as the number of old cases dwindle, I would guess the % needing a Field Office interview is going to rise extremely quickly.

I published some Trackitt stats in a previous post which shows how this appears to be the case.

I can't see the Field Offices processing potentially double or triple the number they did in the first half of the FY.

I believe that is the crux of CO's worry.

Yeah - I am also follwing trackitt threads and processing times are too long now. Just to get an interview date one needs to wait for months and wait few more months for approval after interview.

Spec - thanks for quatifying the presentation. Provides baseline to what CO is saying.

[Spectator]

So is it safe to say up to 140000 - 62000 = 78000 visas might be available maximum as spillover minus whatever number that has completed the visa interview.

Iatiam

It would be the other way round.

Around 78k approvals were already made in Q1+Q2 (62k AOS + 16k CP).

That leaves 62k left for Q3 + Q4.

[vedu]

According to the twit, "Rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers". But rapid advances in China can happen only if India EB2/EB3 catches up with China EB2/EB3....right?

[rock581]

It would be the other way round.

Around 78k approvals were already made in Q1+Q2 (62k AOS + 16k CP).

That leaves 62k left for Q3 + Q4.

Playing devils advocate, we can count only EB2 and EB3 remaining visas ~42K. (Its fair to assume EB1 and EB5 will be fully utilized even with the slow processing.)

CO seems to have utilized 6K with the recent EB3I movement, lets also assume,optimistically, field offices will process 20K of EB2 and EB3 row applications for the rest of the year. So, there will be at least 16K available GCs. That will take care of EB2I till May 1 2010 and more. There is no way new applications can be approved before end of Sep.

Hope CO sees field offices processing more pessimistically and moves dates even more.

Lets also not forget the other part of the equation, the companies will go into overdrive trying to stop this movement!

[Spectator]

According to the twit, "Rapid advance in EB2/EB3 India/China numbers". But rapid advances in China can happen only if India EB2/EB3 catches up with China EB2/EB3....right?

Not necessarily.

If the slowdown in Chinese approvals due to Field Office processing is threatening EB2-C and EB3-C each reaching 2,803 visas for the FY, then they could have rapid advancement.

It wouldn't help AOS cases (because new applications wouldn't get approved by USCIS in time), but it would allow DOS to process CP applications which do not suffer the same delays.

[vedu]

Not necessarily.

If the slowdown in Chinese approvals due to Field Office processing is threatening EB2-C and EB3-C each reaching 2,803 visas for the FY, then they could have rapid advancement.

It wouldn't help AOS cases (because new applications wouldn't get approved by USCIS in time), but it would allow DOS to process CP applications which do not suffer the same delays.

That makes sense! Can't wait to see what the July Visa bulletin has in store for us! Based on the recent RFEs, I am thinking EB2I will move to March 31st, 2009. If they can cover at least upto July, 2009 by the end of year, then it will be great. After that, there is not heavy demand and we can have standard two weeks movement every month next year. All bets are off at this time!

[skpanda]

EB2I:

Any guestimate on what could be the Final Action and Filing Dates would be?

I am seeing that there could be 14K SOFAD for EB2I? This should take us to late 2009 or early 2010 with about 5K inventory pending.

[godhelp]

EB2I:

Any guestimate on what could be the Final Action and Filing Dates would be?

I am seeing that there could be 14K SOFAD for EB2I? This should take us to late 2009 or early 2010 with about 5K inventory pending.

hello friends/experts, any clue when eb3 india priority september 2009 might get current..?

[Spectator]

Playing devils advocate, we can count only EB2 and EB3 remaining visas ~42K. (Its fair to assume EB1 and EB5 will be fully utilized even with the slow processing.)

CO seems to have utilized 6K with the recent EB3I movement, lets also assume,optimistically, field offices will process 20K of EB2 and EB3 row applications for the rest of the year. So, there will be at least 16K available GCs. That will take care of EB2I till May 1 2010 and more. There is no way new applications can be approved before end of Sep.

Hope CO sees field offices processing more pessimistically and moves dates even more.

Lets also not forget the other part of the equation, the companies will go into overdrive trying to stop this movement!

You're not accounting for any CP approvals by DOS in your calculation of available visas in Q3&Q4.

There were 7.5k CP approvals in EB2&EB3 in the first half of the year. If that was repeated for Q3&Q4, then your 16k figure would further reduce to 8.5k.

[iatiam]

You're not accounting for any CP approvals by DOS in your calculation of available visas in Q3&Q4.

There were 7.5k CP approvals in EB2&EB3 in the first half of the year. If that was repeated for Q3&Q4, then your 16k figure would further reduce to 8.5k.

That's a very good point.

Optimistic Scenario:

So assuming 8.5K spillover in the last three months and based on the latest 485 inventory, the dates should move to around January 2010. I am of course assuming that the EB3I inventory is depleted and that EB1I is not taking away any thing. The number also includes 700 visas to be allocated in the last quarter of 2018.

Realistic Scenario:
If we subtract the EB1I pending inventory number of 3900 and assumes no allocation of last Q numbers, the SO reduces to 8500-3900 = 4600 and dates should still move to June 2009.


Let me know if any thing is missing in this

Iatiam

[Jonty Rhodes]

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

[Prabhas]

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

Wow Jonty!!

Long time.. good to see you after such a long time. One of the old timers.. didnt realize you are still around. Thought you got greened long time ago! Bleh...😉

Im with July-2010 Eb2 date and I believe and wish your opinion comes true! 😊

Also from SpecÂ’s comments on 6000 EB2 - visas being used by field offices, isnÂ’t it safe to assume that CO used 15% of the allowed field office quotas ahead of time to avoid any wastage from services centers and now he will utilize the leftovers towards Pending inventory?

V

[Prabhas]

Provided that a decent spillover is available this year and if the dates move towards end of 2009 or beginning of 2010, and provided from thereon we start moving 2 weeks every month for EB2I, wouldn't CO have to advance the EB2I dates rapidly in the last quarter of next fiscal year to generate demand?

Just trying to make a logical guess here. My PD is in May, 2011 for EB2I and I am thinking that hopefully I may be able to get current by end of next fiscal year.

Is that too much optimism or am I right in guessing that?

Wow Jonty!!

Long time.. good to see you after such a long time. One of the old timers.. didnt realize you are still around. Thought you got greened long time ago! Bleh...😉

Im with July-2010 Eb2 date and I believe and wish your opinion comes true! 😊

Also from SpecÂ’s comments on 6000 EB2 - visas being used by field offices, isnÂ’t it safe to assume that CO used 15% of the allowed field office quotas ahead of time to avoid any wastage from services centers and now he will utilize the leftovers towards Pending inventory?

V

[srimurthy]

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 21,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%

Spec - the total for EB2 is not inline on how the remaining numbers of EB1, EB3 and others were calculated.
EBS2 should it be 21 K + 3 K = around 23K instead of the 18K listed?

Was checking if based on that, the percentages change and what everyone is estimating for movement will change for EB2.

[Spectator]

Spec - the total for EB2 is not inline on how the remaining numbers of EB1, EB3 and others were calculated.
EBS2 should it be 21 K + 3 K = around 23K instead of the 18K listed?

Was checking if based on that, the percentages change and what everyone is estimating for movement will change for EB2.

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

[gcvijay]

spec

Thanks for that info. What will be the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic date for eb2 india and eb3 india based on these presentation? if you do not want to make any predictions do we assume bad news? didn’t mean to put you on appt but actually i did

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

[Spectator]

spec

Thanks for that info. What will be the realistic, pessimistic and optimistic date for eb2 india and eb3 india based on these presentation? if you do not want to make any predictions do we assume bad news? didn’t mean to put you on appt but actually i did

There's too little data to even begin to calculate what SO might be available, where it might end up and how that might move the dates.

I'm not even trying to make that calculation.

[Jagan01]

Thanks for pointing out the inconsistency.

Something went wrong copying across the EB2 USCIS figure in that table. You can check this from the original PP presentation.

The Total and therefore the % is correct.

The correct figures are:

Oct-Mar -- USCIS ---- DOS --- Total -- % Yr Alloc
EB1 ----- 26,207 -- 2,913 -- 29,120 ------- 72.7%
EB2 ----- 17,760 -- 1,832 -- 19,592 ------- 48.9%
EB3 ----- 12,849 -- 5,624 -- 18,473 ------- 46.1%
EB4 ------ 4,220 ---- 794 --- 5,014 ------- 50.4%
EB5 -------- 942 -- 5,076 --- 6,018 ------- 60.5%

Total --- 61,978 - 16,239 -- 78,217 ------- 55.9%


The change is highlighted in red.

I've corrected the original post.

Thanks again.

Finally reminds me of the 2012 days when there was rapid movement. The most important news is that EB3 visas not used by EB3 will flow back to EB1 and then to EB2.

[idliman]

Finally reminds me of the 2012 days when there was rapid movement. The most important news is that EB3 visas not used by EB3 will flow back to EB1 and then to EB2.

I still remember the February 2012 bulletin where the dates moved by a year for both India and China to January 1, 2010. I thought they will stop there for sure. It continued even further eventually ending up at May 2010. Positive thoughts. Lets hope for the best.

[Jagan01]

I still remember the February 2012 bulletin where the dates moved by a year for both India and China to January 1, 2010. I thought they will stop there for sure. It continued even further eventually ending up at May 2010. Positive thoughts. Lets hope for the best.

It's always good to stay positive.

My personal assessment is that EB2I ends up getting 8k of SO and that might be good enough to clear the dates until Aug 2009. CO might end up moving a couple of months more as there will be RFEs that will not be responded to in a timely manner, and therefore he might want some buffer created.

I do not think the dates will move into 2010 as there simply is too much inventory to be taken care off.

I think Spec is the best person on this forum and his statements are like gold. Spec, whats the cut-off date in your mind that EB2I will hit by the end of this FY. I know Spec is a numbers guy and will provide all the data, but he mostly wont put out cut-off dates estimates. Lets see if he does this time around ?

[knighthood83]

Back in Feb I had mentioned that AOS interviews will cause this situation. No one took me seriously then.

Folks till May 2010 will not need interviews. This will happen next year as well and same thing will happen next year as well. Folks till May 2010 are golden now. If not this year by next year May 2010 will be done.

2010 in general will see light at the end of the tunnel.

[srimurthy]

I still remember the February 2012 bulletin where the dates moved by a year for both India and China to January 1, 2010. I thought they will stop there for sure. It continued even further eventually ending up at May 2010. Positive thoughts. Lets hope for the best.

The scenario is a little different from 2012, that in 2012 the movement enabled people to file 485s. The current movement will only be to clear some of that backlog, and allowing others to file who missed it last time. Not much of a impact on inventory build up, I guess