EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[qesehmk]

You are right HPTKI - I wouldn't do it unless i thought there was impact down below in EB2 and 3.

I think there is. Spec thinks there isn't.

My assumption A is (no empiracal evidence) 50% of EB1C India Manager cases should be impacted because I "believe" those many people hop from one company to another and back before their GC is filed in EB1C.

If "A" is true then they all will be ineligible in EB1 and hence the demand will be reduced. However given there is so much backlog in EB1 I do not believe this will reflect in EB2 until next year.

That's the long and short of my reason why I discussed this topic in this thread.

This is all interesting stuff, but why are we doing this in a Eb2-3 Predictions Forum?

[Spectator]

I think this is another of those stupid Check-in reporting that I have been seeing. Why does CO not give a prediction for EB3I Dates in May? Don't the AILA Attorney's ask any questions during the check-in? If it is just a monologue, then CO might as well release a written statement and be done with it.Why does he have to show up in person to do this?

@Spectator your take on the above? When does an AOS Application show up in the 'Demand' File? The moment a Receipt Notice is generated? How does CO know those numbers? Does USCIS send DOS a Report of incremental category-wise AOS demand every month before CO releases the VB?

As far as I am aware.

An AOS application only shows up in the official DOS Demand file when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 and they request a visa from DOS.

If the date is current, a visa is issued and the AOS application is approved by USCIS.

If the date is retrogressed, the visa cannot be issued and the case details are stored in the DOS Demand file. When the date becomes current, a list of cases that have become current is sent to USCIS for final adjudication.

This is the reason CO has very little visibility of upcoming demand from USCIS when numbers become low and why he has difficulty assessing the USCIS demand for Categories/Countries that are Current.

With USCIS, CO only knows that a visa is required when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 case and request a visa during the month.

Because the Consular system allows the use of Filing Dates, the cases are reviewed much earlier in the process and the Consulates are able to send a report of their demand (by Category Country and PD) prior to CO setting the Cut Off Dates. The demand only reduces if the case is denied at Consular interview, in which case the visa is returned to DOS for reuse.



The USCIS Inventory does not include I-485s where the I-140 has not been approved.

B. I-485 Inventory Report

USCIS has worked to increase transparency to its stakeholders in numerous ways, including publication of the Form I-485 inventory report. The CISOMB indicates that the USCIS inventory of pending employment-based green card applications does not capture cases in categories where the Visa Bulletin is current (or where the cut-off dates have been reached) but are within current USCIS processing times (i.e., recently filed cases).

To clarify this point, the pending inventory report contains all principal and dependent employment-based green card applications pending at the Nebraska Service Center (NSC) and the Texas Service Center (TSC).

This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

In instances where the green card application and the petition for an alien worker are filed concurrently, and the petition has not yet been adjudicated – meaning country of chargeability, preference, and priority date are as yet unknown – the green card application does not appear in the inventory.

This may include newly-filed cases where both the green card application and the petition are within target cycle-times.

However, a newly-filed green card application based on an approved petition will appear in the inventory if it was filed prior to the posting of the latest inventory report.

**** In the Annual Report, the CISOMB indicates that there are approximately 23,000 cases currently awaiting interview and adjudication at USCIS Field Offices.

Approximately 13,446 cases have already been interviewed and pre-adjudicated by the USCIS Field Offices. Those cases are pending final adjudication once a visa becomes available. USCIS is finalizing guidance that will instruct Field Offices to send all pre-adjudicated employment-based green card applications to the TSC. Centralization of those cases will allow USCIS to provide DOS with greater visibility into the Agency’s pending inventory of employment-based green card applications.

**** Since this report, the Inventory does now contain the Field Office cases according to USCIS.

[redsox2009]

Feb Monthly Immigrant Visa Issuance

Url below
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...issuances.html

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	214	16	18	1	24	0	186	459
EB2	6	6	4	53	160	3	116	348
EB3	101	45	4	644	62	1	353	1210
EB4	2	11	1	10	4	0	61	89
EB5	229	11	8	0	46	27	168	489
Total	552	89	35	708	296	31	884	2595

[redsox2009]

Year to Date - Monthly Visa Issuance's via consular processing.

	China	India	Mexico	Philippines	South Korea	Vietnam	ROW-SK-VET	Total
EB1	1338	152	39	3	160	8	867	2567
EB2	39	29	18	217	555	14	644	1516
EB3	187	158	78	2256	195	54	1672	4600
EB4	11	52	2	25	16	20	537	663
EB5	2730	129	26	7	192	430	939	4453
Total	4305	520	163	2508	1118	526	4659	13799

[bluelabel]

The total number 13799 for less than 6 months in this FY(Oct 2017-Mar 2018) makes the percentage of consular cases to be at ~20%. This seems to be above normal level, is there a reason for spike in consular cases this year?

[Spectator]

redsox2009,

As ever, thanks for compiling the figures.

[YTeleven]

The total number 13799 for less than 6 months in this FY(Oct 2017-Mar 2018) makes the percentage of consular cases to be at ~20%. This seems to be above normal level, is there a reason for spike in consular cases this year?

bluelabel,
ha ha... you just caught an interesting parameter.. I don't want to explain the cause of this.. but ultimate effect will be on EB3-I spillover after 6 months
let me give the hints and see who will crack that hidden reason.
1) this is related to EB3
2) this will lead to 25% CP processing ratio in this year i.e. FY18
3) this is a good sign for EB3-I on long term view in fact this is one of the pre-requisite for EB3-I to surpass the EB2-I dates
4) this trend will pave way for an additional 2 to 3k of horizontal spillover(potential) to EB3-I from next year onwards till it becomes current(meaning indirectly it will throttle the downward porting from EB2-I)
5) answer is just one word

[imdeng]

bluelabel,
ha ha... you just caught an interesting parameter.. I don't want to explain the cause of this.. but ultimate effect will be on EB3-I spillover after 6 months
let me give the hints and see who will crack that hidden reason.
1) this is related to EB3
2) this will lead to 25% CP processing ratio in this year i.e. FY18
3) this is a good sign for EB3-I on long term view in fact this is one of the pre-requisite for EB3-I to surpass the EB2-I dates
4) this trend will pave way for an additional 2 to 3k of horizontal spillover(potential) to EB3-I from next year onwards till it becomes current(meaning indirectly it will throttle the downward porting from EB2-I)
5) answer is just one word

And the answer starts with the letter....???

[YTeleven]

And the answer starts with the letter....???

What is March 14th?

[rock581]

What is March 14th?

I said it a few days back

[YTeleven]

I said it a few days back

Yes. You are correct. I was pointing to Philippines... for last few years the average visa consumption by this country in EB3 alone is 6700..
its back logged EB3 AOS demand has been depleted and now DOS is clearing the CP demand.. by the end of this FY18 this country will become current and it will not generate the 6700 demand in EB3 hence we can expect the spillover to EB3-I

[EB2-03252009]

so no SO to eb2 this year too? jus saw trackitt approvals that Specs updates, it increased this month for eb2-row

[HarepathekaIntezar]

As far as I am aware.

An AOS application only shows up in the official DOS Demand file when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 and they request a visa from DOS.

If the date is current, a visa is issued and the AOS application is approved by USCIS.

If the date is retrogressed, the visa cannot be issued and the case details are stored in the DOS Demand file. When the date becomes current, a list of cases that have become current is sent to USCIS for final adjudication.

This is the reason CO has very little visibility of upcoming demand from USCIS when numbers become low and why he has difficulty assessing the USCIS demand for Categories/Countries that are Current.

With USCIS, CO only knows that a visa is required when USCIS adjudicate the I-485 case and request a visa during the month.

Because the Consular system allows the use of Filing Dates, the cases are reviewed much earlier in the process and the Consulates are able to send a report of their demand (by Category Country and PD) prior to CO setting the Cut Off Dates. The demand only reduces if the case is denied at Consular interview, in which case the visa is returned to DOS for reuse.

The USCIS Inventory does not include I-485s where the I-140 has not been approved.

This includes cases for which visas are currently available but have not yet been adjudicated to completion, and cases that have been pre-adjudicated because the applicant is otherwise eligible but a visa is not currently available.

Hmmm...most of it sounds like gobble de gook to me, but still Interesting information. This means that backlogged countries Cases would show up in the Inventory as they always have I-140 already pre approved, whereas Current Categories cases would not as they would mostly be filing concurrent.

@Spectator, given that EB2 and 3 Category Indians file AOS with an Approved I-140, would they show up in Inventory or Demand as soon as USCIS issues a Receipt Notice or when USCIS issues Fingerprinting RFE?

Another question, how is 'Inventory' (looks like USCIS loves to use this term) different from 'Demand' (looks like CO loves to use this term)?

[texas_]

May be old story but here is what I got from our company's attorney:

Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim: March 14, 2018

Employment-based Categories

Why do the April Visa Bulletin final action date changes in the employment-based preference categories seem more dramatic than usual?

The advancements and retrogressions in final action dates in certain employment-based preference categories are attributable to several factors.

First, in terms of timing, the advancement of certain categories is intended to spur sufficient demand early enough in the fiscal year to maximize number use by September 30, 2018.

Second, number usage over the last few months has depleted the "pending demand" of pre-adjudicated cases in certain employment-based categories. The lack of visibility into future demand results in final action dates advancing more dramatically than would otherwise be the case, erring on the side of generating too much demand rather than risking numbers going unused.

Third, the transition of USCIS adjustment of status processing from service centers to field offices further impacts visibility into the full extent of employment-based demand. As a result, the spike in demand during this transition period that resulted in retrogression of certain categories may ultimately prove to be "artificial" and not be sustained throughout the year.

Ultimately, a lack of visibility into pending demand at USCIS means greater uncertainty into how to best move the final action dates. Dramatic advancements now could result in retrogressions next fiscal year if estimated demand levels are exceeded. Charlie remains hopeful that next year, after the transition of employment-based cases to USCIS field offices is complete, he will have a better understanding of the data that is available and be able to limit volatile movements in the final action dates. In the meantime, AILA members are advised to file adjustment of status applications for clients as soon as they are current in case a later retrogression prevents filing.

Consular Processing vs. Adjustment of Status.

While consular processing has historically represented about 15 percent of employment-based immigrant visa processing relative to adjustment of status, consular processing has increased this fiscal year to 25 percent of overall employment-based cases. Consular processing of EB-1 cases during the first four months of FY 2017 was roughly 1,200 while that number for FY 2018 rose to about 2,600. Similarly, consular processing of EB-3 cases in Manila increased to 80 percent compared to adjustment of status, whereas that split used to be about even.
AILA Note: One possible factor spurring an increase in consular processing is the uncertainty over processing times at USCIS field offices, given the new interview requirement.

EB-1.

Last month, we reported that EB-1 India and EB-1 China were expected have final action dates imposed as early as late spring. Both will have a January 1, 2012, final action date imposed starting in April. EB-1 Worldwide demand has been high, and a high volume of EB-1 India and EB-1 China cases were adjudicated to completion. Charlie imposed a final action date to allow EB-1 Worldwide to remain current for all other countries which had not yet reached the per-country annual limit. It is unclear whether this demand is a one-time spike caused by the transfer of cases within USCIS, or whether that demand will be sustained. If EB-1 Worldwide demand starts to drop off, it is possible that the EB-1 India and EB-1 China final action dates can be advanced late in the summer.

EB-2 and EB-3 China.

In April, EB-2 China advances almost eight months to August 1, 2014, and EB-3 China advances six and a half months to June 1, 2015. In making this advancement, Charlie has depleted all requests for visa numbers from his pending demand file. This dramatic forward movement is the result of having utilized all pre-adjudicated EB-2 China demand and ensuring that sufficient demand is generated to use all available visa numbers this fiscal year. If significant demand materializes, these categories could be at risk of retrogression.

EB-2 India.

Unlike the lack of visibility into EB-2 China demand, Charlie has significant visibility in his pending demand file for India. Members should therefore expect intermittent holding of the final action date coupled with continued gradual movement without volatility. Charlie is unable to advance EB-2 India more aggressively due to concerns about EB-3 to EB-2 upgrades. If there are otherwise unused EB-2 Worldwide numbers later this fiscal year, it may allow EB-2 India to advance further. The EB-2 India final action date advances one week in April to December 22, 2008. Charlie remains hopeful that the final action date in this category will get to early 2009 before the end of this fiscal year.

EB-3 India.

EB-3 India leaps ahead 11 months to February 1, 2008 in April. It is unclear at this time whether this category will advance or will hold at the same date for May. Since the final action date for EB-3 India is approaching that of EB-2 India, there may be fewer EB-2 upgrades, which could have a positive impact on the advancement of EB-2 India. Members should watch this category closely and should file adjustment of status applications for clients as soon as they are eligible to do so.

[Eagles_28]

'The EB-2 India final action date advances one week in April to December 22, 2008. Charlie remains hopeful that the final action date in this category will get to early 2009 before the end of this fiscal year.'

Hi Folks,
What is early 2009 that CO has mentioned. Does that include Jan 2009 ? I have a EB2I PD 29-Jan-2009. Apologize to ask this question. I am tired of working for this employer. Will I be current in next 2-3 bulletins?

[GCdreamz]

May be old story but here is what I got from our company's attorney:

Check-in with DOS's Charlie Oppenheim: March 14, 2018

Thanks for sharing. I did not find such detailed explanation online.

Gave me hope on dates movement based on building Inventory and EB2I dates advancement once CO gets confirmation/clarity of EB3 to EB2 upgrades & EB2- Row Spill Over. We might see May/June 2009 if all THREE happen.

[gcy2k07]

You are right HPTKI - I wouldn't do it unless i thought there was impact down below in EB2 and 3.

I think there is. Spec thinks there isn't.

My assumption A is (no empiracal evidence) 50% of EB1C India Manager cases should be impacted because I "believe" those many people hop from one company to another and back before their GC is filed in EB1C.

If "A" is true then they all will be ineligible in EB1 and hence the demand will be reduced. However given there is so much backlog in EB1 I do not believe this will reflect in EB2 until next year.

That's the long and short of my reason why I discussed this topic in this thread.

Please don't view this as EB1C bashing - however - I was reading all the articles about the H1B season opening and how all applications would be scrutinized and fraud eliminated. I fully understand that EB1C filers are following the rules but have no PERM, not minimum wage and no minimum education requirements. However, it pains me to see such applicants on forums discussing eligibility, RFEs, status changes - I would imagine multinational "executives" to be busier than that and have enough of a senior position at their employers that their legal team/HR would be dealing with such issues. I know the next reply would be EB2 and EB3 require the scrutiny as well. Sure - but at least they have a long process like PERM/LC/recruiting etc.

Now to the point of my post - what do the experts here think is the reason USCIS is not aggressively scrutinizing EB1C like they talk about regarding H1B? Is it only because the political rhetoric has been about H1B and not EB1C?

[Rachel3]

Not sure if this is the right place to ask: I tried googling it but got very confusing information. How long does it typically take to get i485 approval, after the PD becomes current (assuming you already have an approved EAD/AP document).

[HarepathekaIntezar]

This is a "EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations)" Thread, please use this for that specific purpose.

[redsox2009]

Based on the first week approval of the EB-2 and EB-3, EB-2 might move upto a month and EB-3 might move upto a year to catch up with EB-2.

[dubnis]

Based on the first week approval of the EB-2 and EB-3, EB-2 might move upto a month and EB-3 might move upto a year to catch up with EB-2.

Amigo!
Are you referring to cases that are being approved for EB2I/EB3I in first week of April? Yes, EB3I is seeing quick approvals till Jul 2007. But no one knows how many new EB3I filers could come up beyond Jul 2007. So there is enough space till Feb 2008 for the new cases to come in and get approvals within FY2018. Subject to demand there might be advancements in EB3I cutoff dates in the next 2 VBs to avoid wastage.

[redsox2009]

Amigo!
Are you referring to cases that are being approved for EB2I/EB3I in first week of April? Yes, EB3I is seeing quick approvals till Jul 2007. But no one knows how many new EB3I filers could come up beyond Jul 2007. So there is enough space till Feb 2008 for the new cases to come in and get approvals within FY2018. Subject to demand there might be advancements in EB3I cutoff dates in the next 2 VBs to avoid wastage.

Yes, In the past I saw the trend where first week of the month tells Visa Bulletin Movement. If there are approvals then dates will advance, and no approvals, dates will retrogress. Last month EB1 India slowed down in first week of the month, that was an indication and EB3 approvals went sky rocketing.

Main reason why EB3 can advance is, all law firms were busy with H1B filing till April 6th and since USCIS will not receive much of the applications in since March 15th to April 6th, so USCIS will report less applications to CO, and he might advance dates further.


My theory/Guesstimate.

[dubnis]

Yes, In the past I saw the trend where first week of the month tells Visa Bulletin Movement. If there are approvals then dates will advance, and no approvals, dates will retrogress. Last month EB1 India slowed down in first week of the month, that was an indication and EB3 approvals went sky rocketing.
Main reason why EB3 can advance is, all law firms were busy with H1B filing till April 6th and since USCIS will not receive much of the applications in since March 15th to April 6th, so USCIS will report less applications to CO, and he might advance dates further.
My theory/Guesstimate.

Amigo - That is one good observation with some results from past to backup this prediction!

[Immigo]

That is exactly the situation, when the existing PERM (previously used to support an EB2 I-140) is used for an EB3 I-140.

The minimum requirements for the job haven't changed and whether there were other applicants who could apply was tested before, when the PERM was originally submitted. It's excluding no one.

Just because an I-140 is applied for under EB3 doesn't mean that only the minimum requirements for EB3 are required to do the job.

All that is required is that they are equal to, or higher than the minimum requirements for EB3. There's no limit on how high the requirements are, as long as they are required for the position.

There's no requirement to file under EB2, even if the education/experience required supports it.

I guess people with EB2 NIW will be out of luck as they will not be able to downgrade to EB3, if needed.

[EB3Iwaiting]

May VB is out: https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...-may-2018.html

EB2I FA: 22nd Dec 2008 No Movement
EB2I FD: 1st April 2009 (Moved from 8th Feb 09)

EB3I FA: 1st May 2008 (3 months)
EB3I FD: 1st Sep 2008