Good to see nice forward movement of dates for EB3I. Congratulations to all those who have become current after a decade of wait.Originally Posted by Spectator
Good to see nice forward movement of dates for EB3I. Congratulations to all those who have become current after a decade of wait.
Happy to See First & Second points becoming True. Hope to see SO & Dates movement for EB2 too. I am expecting EB2I & EB3I to have same dates by end of FY18
Yes, EB3I to EB2I upgrades in 2008 + Recession may lead to less demand in EB3I and if there is good SO then Dates might advance to Feb 09 or Same as EB2I.
Looks like CO used the 'visibility' provided by the USCIS cooked up '2018 January Pending Inventory'
https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...nuary_2018.pdf
in prescribing the dates for April2018 VB! Hopefully the USCIS can put in place an accurate calculation of the pending inventory. Given its record, USCIS is more likely to suspend the Pending Inventory Report entirely rather than enhance the accuracy of that report.
Finally - some rational actions by CO! Some long awaiting good news for EB3-I folks.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Finally!!!
Another good thing that no one is talking about is the steady march of EB3P to Current. Once EB3P goes current EB3I will get a much bigger chunk of GC's.
I am thinking the recent Shakeup at state department (firing of rex tillerson) may also have prompted officials to do their job well. Just my thoughts; could be wrong.
Have a question: In the visa bulletin, the following is mentioned regarding EB1 retrogression to Jan 2012.
"Should the level of worldwide demand for E1 numbers decline, there could be some future movement in this date prior to the end of the fiscal year."
Is there any chance of this happening ? Move forward from Jan 2012 to a slightly later date ? Or is this all set until October 1st for sure ? Any idea, Gurus ?
EB1C is totally messing up EB1A/B folks.
Thanks for the reply Spec. When you had said consequences of bringing EB3I to 2008 Jan , then I had a follow up question (why CO is not doing in a planned manner like moving dates by 2/3 months for EB3I each month till it catches up Jan 2008, the Filing date . I chose not to ask you that because the discussion was not going anywhere. We had different point of views, but I liked our healthy disagreement.
Well, that's past now, Mr. CO has proved me wrong (which I love though). My gut feeling was he will do the same mistake as he did last time on purpose. Good that he acted in a rationale manner this time. Congrats to all the EB3I folks who are current.
On a lighter note - I think Mr. CO reads our posts and finally he got convinced and moved dates. On an even more lighter note - I think Spec, you are an insider/like secret services working in CO's team who actually is very logical n efficient in number crunching and gives CO the true picture of everything/our pain points/difficulties, its just that CO listens to you only sometimes..... ha ha.... my sense of humor might not be that good, just wrote it on a lighter side.
Anyway, Congrats again to EB3I folks and good luck to EB2I folks. At least we are seeing some light at the end of tunnel now.
Last time CO did inventory building (in 2012, for EB2I), he did it in several stages and went way further than what was strictly necessary for immediate needs. That allowed a whole bunch of us to file 485 and get EADs - made for a much simpler (though so so long!) wait since 2012.
Lets hope that CO will continue with the same approach and moves EB3I further in coming months. In any case, density in EB3I in 2008/2009 should be pretty sparse given all the porting and 2008/09 recession - so might not take too much of a stretch to get EB3I to end of 2009 (just for 485/EAD, nor expecting approvals so far down).
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Let's drink to that!
Looking at Permchecker.com, the following are the approved PERM numbers:
2008:39K
2009: 38K
2010: 78K
2011: 51K
2012: 57K
2013: 32K
2014: 70K
2015: 79K
2016: 113K
2017: 79K
If this scenario happens, it will open up the possibility of reverse porting from EB2I to EB3I and this may lead to very interesting visa movements.
Iatiam
so happy for all EB3I folks. Hope the wait ends soon.
EB3Iwaiting, your wait is probably going to be over soon.
Perm numbers from 2014 onwards (and 2010) are staggeringly large. Only saving grade is that ~60% of them are EB-IC so it does not affect spillover.
EB2I to EB3I reverse porting is going to happen pretty soon. It seems likely for PD >= 2010.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Amigo!
Are these PERM filing cases for all EB categories or just combination of EB2/EB3 worldwide!?
EB1s don't do PERM - so its EB2/3.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Any thoughts on this ? Any chance of the dates for EB1 moving little forward before October 1st ? Was going to file EB1A/B in next 1-2 months, with concurrent I485. Now need to re-plan.
Newyorker, No one can answer that for sure. But if I can read between the lines on what CO stated, I think there is high probability (my gut feeling, but no one knows whether that will happen or when that will happen for sure, thanks).
I agree with you imdeng. The numbers also point to the same.
For EB3 GC's only, lets assume USCIS issued 10K quarterly quota in Q1 and we have 17K pending inventory as of Jan. So, USCIS can at best issue 27K GC's for EB3. Lets assume 30K to get to a round number. Now CO needs to find 10K of EB3I by moving the dates.
From July'07 to Feb'08, we may have a max of 3K EB3I applicants that will apply in April. So, if CO and USCIS are talking early April, CO will have to go much deeper to utilize the 7-10K extra GC's.
Is there a flaw somewhere in my calculation?
It may move a year or 2 if there are any otherwise unused visas left in EB1 row(and/or in EB3 if CO cannot allocate all unused visas to EB3I) but highly unlikely that EB1I going to become 'C ' before Oct 1st 2018. However USCIS might accept dates for filing at least one month before Oct 1st, which may allow you to file I-485.
If you can expedite it and file before March 31st i.e. before the April bulletin takes effect, you will be able to file concurrently. Good luck!
I have an EB2 priority date of 2012, so a few months move will also help - lets see. Cannot expedite it by the end of this month. Will not be able to do a good job.
I have a follow-up question. Apart from getting an earlier EAD/AP, are there any more advantages of filing hurriedly before March 31st ? As I plan to remain with my H1, an earlier EAD/AP is of not immense use.
In any case they will not adjudicate the I485 before whenever my priority date becomes current. Pls correct me if I am wrong.
My priority date is in 2012(missed it by few months), and I am planning to file EB1A I140/I485 concurrently.
Based on Pending Inventory Report again, I have estimated the new EB3I demand to be around 1,800 (300/Month*6 Months). I don't think that is sufficient to soak up the EB3 numbers given the very anaemic Demand from ROW. I still think CO should push the EB3I Date to Dec 31, 2008 in May VB to generate enough demand to absorb the current years visas. Maybe even that may not be sufficient.If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000
Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.
Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300
ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2
@spectator, what do you say?
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