EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[jkseth]

Thanks Spec and WhereIsMyGC for providing info.
The numbers in the table seem reasonable for consular processing.

[Jagan01]

knighthood83,

Nobody knows the impact of AOS interviews on processing times, even CO himself. I think we need to see how the approval numbers change as the FY progresses.

I'm not sure I am quite as bullish about the situation as you, although it clearly is going to lengthen processing times. Here's some factors why.

1) It seems USCIS are at least trying to process cases. Looking at Local Office timings, I've noticed naturalization interview times have doubled from 5 months to 10 months.
I'm sure much of the reason is to accommodate AOS interviews. Over 750,000 people naturalized in FY2016, each needing an interview.

It does appear that the interview requirement is adding at least an additional 3 months to the process.

2) A large number of cases in the existing backlog predate the March 2017 cutoff date.

EB1, in particular, already had an extremely large backlog of cases, many of which probably predate the March 2017 cutoff date. For this reason, I don't expect EB1 to provide any SO in FY2018.

3) EB2-ROW were retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2017. In FY2018, they will have a full 12 months of approvals, so a lower rate can still achive quite high numbers.
With the current approval rate, they are on track to use all spare visas available in EB2. Clearly that can change during the remainder of the FY as the % of cases requiring an interview increases.
So far (for Trackitt approvals) 70% of EB2-ROW cases predate the cutoff date. More recently, it is around 60%.

4) Filing Dates have been accepted for CP cases. These aren't affected by the new interview requirement. There already seems to be some evidence that more CP cases may be approved in FY2018.

EB1 in FY2017 totalled 2,529 CP cases approved for the full FY. (China - 673)
EB1 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 2,108 CP cases approved (big increase) (China - 1,124)

EB2 in FY2017 totalled 3,223 CP cases approved for the full FY.
EB2 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 1,168 CP cases approved (about the same)

EB3 in FY2017 totalled 7,893 CP cases approved for the full FY.
EB3 in 4 months of FY2018 totals 3,390 CP cases approved (a fairly large increase)

5) THe largest user of EB3 visas is Philippines. The current FAD is retrogressed by more than a year and CO can advance it if necessary. The majority of EB3-P are CP cases.

Not directly related, but I think it is now too late for CO to advance EB3-I beyond July 2007 and expect cases to be approved in FY2018.
Even doing so in April would only allow 6 months for approval. All the new cases will need to undergo interview. That alone will likely take at least 3 months.
Realistically, USCIS is not going to adjudicate those cases in 3 months before sending the cases to NVC to organize the interview.

Spec,

Thanks for the information. Could you share the trackitt approval numbers with all of us. I do not see the trackitt data being updated for this FY.

Just an update - I got RFE for my application.

[tenyearsgone]

Everyone, I have a quick question about EAD/AP combo card renewal. Please move this to appropriate thread once answered.

Can we apply for EAD/AP combo renewal 180 days before expiry now? I know it used to be 120 days but just came across this article which suggests 180 days. Can anyone please confirm?
https://www.cilawgroup.com/news/2017...l-application/

Thanks.

Yes, this was one of the changes that came in last year along with the extra 180-day work eligibility. In all, it gives 360 days time to get EAD renewed and current processing times can range up to 7-8 months as per Trackitt. Best to apply as early as possible.

[tendlya]

Yes, this was one of the changes that came in last year along with the extra 180-day work eligibility. In all, it gives 360 days time to get EAD renewed and current processing times can range up to 7-8 months as per Trackitt. Best to apply as early as possible.

Thanks. Mine and wife's expiring in Sep. So i guess I should be able to apply in March.

[pracar]

Sorry for posting in the wrong thread. Need some guidance quickly on H1 B renewal.
My passport expires in Jan 2020- so its too early to renew. The company attorney said that the H1B renewal can only be filed for the validity of the passport if it is less than 3 years from expiration. Anyone else heard about this change.
My H1B expires Sept. 2018. My wife is utilizing H4 EAD.
Thank you.

[hope21]

Spec, Good to see your post after a while, which is always logical :-). You, I and most of the folks here provide logical suggestions/explanations. Do you think that logic ever prevails in CO world when its related to EB3I /EB2I. Forget about April, I don't think he will do it before last quarter of this financial year (not even last quarter, he might do it in last months or so) and then he will again come up with some illogical explanation the same way as he did few times (when he stated - folks did not respond to the RFEs in time that's why those visas were given/adjusted somewhere else, I think that was crossing the heights of stupidity when he said that). Apologies if I am being sarcastic but unfortunately it is true that there is a certain bias against few categories (for number of different reasons) which can never be proven and can never be black/white and cannot be challenged because of the nature of it/the way it happens... lets leave it at that.

Coming back to the original topic, I really hope that I am wrong in predicting that he will not do it before later months in last quarter.

knighthood83,
Not directly related, but I think it is now too late for CO to advance EB3-I beyond July 2007 and expect cases to be approved in FY2018.
Even doing so in April would only allow 6 months for approval. All the new cases will need to undergo interview. That alone will likely take at least 3 months.
Realistically, USCIS is not going to adjudicate those cases in 3 months before sending the cases to NVC to organize the interview.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the information. Could you share the trackitt approval numbers with all of us. I do not see the trackitt data being updated for this FY.

Just an update - I got RFE for my application.

Several people have asked this question.

At present, I don't intend to post the figures.

In large part, this is because it has become too difficult to do so.

Several months ago, it became impossible for me to stay logged in to the site for more than 30 seconds at a time. Even a small post can mean relogging in 5 or 6 times before I can finally post it.

It's the same regardless of the browser I use.

When I last updated the PERM figures for Q1, it took over an hour, even with a second tab entirely devoted to logging back in.

I really don't want that frustration for posts that need updating on a regular basis.

If I find a way to overcome that, or the site behaviour changes, I'll start posting.

PS This has taken 9 logins to post.

[qesehmk]

Spec - are you speaking about trackitt or qesehmk site?

Several people have asked this question.

At present, I don't intend to post the figures.

In large part, this is because it has become too difficult to do so.

Several months ago, it became impossible for me to stay logged in to the site for more than 30 seconds at a time. Even a small post can mean relogging in 5 or 6 times before I can finally post it.

It's the same regardless of the browser I use.

When I last updated the PERM figures for Q1, it took over an hour, even with a second tab entirely devoted to logging back in.

I really don't want that frustration for posts that need updating on a regular basis.

If I find a way to overcome that, or the site behaviour changes, I'll start posting.

PS This has taken 9 logins to post.

[Spectator]

Spec - are you speaking about trackitt or qesehmk site?

Q,

qesehmk.org

I don't have any problem on any other site.

In fact, today, sometimes I can't login at all until I close chrome and reopen it (never seen that before.

The general problem is also present using Firefox.

[qesehmk]

Thanks Spec. I wonder if this is due to the patch upgrade we had recently.

But at this end - I access the site just like everybody and no issues. In fact things are lightening speed with me.

Lets see if anybody else has similar issues accessing qesehmk.org. Please let me know.

Meanwhile I will check your user settings.

Q,

qesehmk.org

I don't have any problem on any other site.

In fact, today, sometimes I can't login at all until I close chrome and reopen it (never seen that before.

The general problem is also present using Firefox.

[EB2-03252009]

Pending inventory out

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...nuary_2018.pdf

[EB2-03252009]

Several people have asked this question.

At present, I don't intend to post the figures.

In large part, this is because it has become too difficult to do so.

Several months ago, it became impossible for me to stay logged in to the site for more than 30 seconds at a time. Even a small post can mean relogging in 5 or 6 times before I can finally post it.

It's the same regardless of the browser I use.

When I last updated the PERM figures for Q1, it took over an hour, even with a second tab entirely devoted to logging back in.

I really don't want that frustration for posts that need updating on a regular basis.

If I find a way to overcome that, or the site behaviour changes, I'll start posting.

PS This has taken 9 logins to post.

Hi Spec,

Thanks for the awesome work, trackitt approvals really help us to predict if there are any SOs.

Would you be able to update once a month atleast instead of daily updates? would be really helpful.

[Spectator]

Thanks Spec. I wonder if this is due to the patch upgrade we had recently.

But at this end - I access the site just like everybody and no issues. In fact things are lightening speed with me.

Lets see if anybody else has similar issues accessing qesehmk.org. Please let me know.

Meanwhile I will check your user settings.

Q,

Thanks.

It's been a problem for quite a long time - maybe 6 months or more. Certainly before the last patch.

[qesehmk]

Spec - sorry to hear that. Nothing seems to be wrong with your user settings. Let's see if others have similar issues.

p.s. - In case you are using a proxy , try accessing directly. Vbulletin's newer security features may be blocking proxy access.

pps - chatting w you after a long while Hello to you and all the old timers. I hope everybody is doing well.

Q,

Thanks.

It's been a problem for quite a long time - maybe 6 months or more. Certainly before the last patch.

[Spectator]

Spec - sorry to hear that. Nothing seems to be wrong with your user settings. Let's see if others have similar issues.

p.s. - In case you are using a proxy , try accessing directly. Vbulletin's newer security features may be blocking proxy access.

pps - chatting w you after a long while Hello to you and all the old timers. I hope everybody is doing well.

Q,

Thanks for taking the time to check.

I do use a proxy, so that is probably the problem.

Not using a proxy is not an option for me.

[qesehmk]

That's ok. Perhaps use another proxy - another device?

Nothing changed on the site except I upgraded vBulletin perhaps 2 weeks back or a month.

If I see other people complaining I can investigate further. Otherwise it could be an issue at the client side browser or machine.

Q,

Thanks for taking the time to check.

I do use a proxy, so that is probably the problem.

Not using a proxy is not an option for me.

[Spectator]

That's ok. Perhaps use another proxy - another device?

Nothing changed on the site except I upgraded vBulletin perhaps 2 weeks back or a month.

If I see other people complaining I can investigate further. Otherwise it could be an issue at the client side browser or machine.

Q,

I have investigated a bit further. It's definitely a proxy issue, since I can use a VPN without the problem occurring.

It's a shame that after 7 years it's now broken.

[qesehmk]

Glad it's resolved!

Q,

I have investigated a bit further. It's definitely a proxy issue, since I can use a VPN without the problem occurring.

It's a shame that after 7 years it's now broken.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Pending inventory out

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/...nuary_2018.pdf

First glance did not raise any red flags. Has anyone noticed anything ridiculous about this edition?

[suninphx]

First glance did not raise any red flags. Has anyone noticed anything ridiculous about this edition?

There are still ~7500 cases pending with PD 2008 for EB2I ( which is like 2.5 the allocated annual quota), no spill over expected (as of now) and still the FA date is at ~Dec 08?

Wondering ....

[HarepathekaIntezar]

There are still ~7500 cases pending with PD 2008 for EB2I ( which is like 2.5 the allocated annual quota), no spill over expected (as of now) and still the FA date is at ~Dec 08?
Wondering ....

You are right, this time they screwed up EB2 Numbers!

[HarepathekaIntezar]

If the Inventory as of Jan 2018 is accurate, here is my calculations and estimates:
a)EB3 Total Inventory = 17,200
b)Add trend filings in the next 4 months = 1000*4=4,000

Note: that USCIS takes at least 6 months to approve an EB Petition after filing.

Total Inventory that is available to USCIS to Approve before 30th September a+b = 21,200
Total Visa number available in the 8 months = (40,000/12)*8 = 26,300

ALL Pending EB3I will be cleared this year! If CO does not aggressively move EB3I Final Action dates (through June 2008), lot of EB3 Visa numbers will be wasted and be given to EB2

[canada]

My PD is EB-India August 28,2009

I missed the 2012 slot to have EAD due to delay in getting birth certificates

You guys are forecasting that the unused EB3 might go to EB2. What if the CO decides to hand it to EB1?

BTW, I am a medical professional- working in a Hospital-not IT

Thanks

[Spectator]

My PD is EB-India August 28,2009

I missed the 2012 slot to have EAD due to delay in getting birth certificates

You guys are forecasting that the unused EB3 might go to EB2. What if the CO decides to hand it to EB1?

BTW, I am a medical professional- working in a Hospital-not IT

Thanks

There is no mechanism within the law to allow unused EB3 visas to be used by either EB1 or EB2.

The law, INA 203, allows:

EB4/EB5 --> EB1
EB1 --> EB2 and
EB2 to EB3

What appears have happened previously, is that CO did not retrogress EB1 quickly enough, allowing EB1 to use more visas than their allocation.
Since both the late retrogression of EB1-China and EB1-India and the non retrogression of EB1 as a whole covered a period of one month worth of visa issuances, then it could be said to be accidental and unforeseen, even though technically unlawful.

In order to stay within the overall 140k limit, CO was forced to limit EB3 approvals to under their otherwise available allocation. This gives the illusion of SO from EB3 to EB1.

It's entirely possible this will be repeated. In fact, with AOS interviews potentially seriously affecting approval timelines, CO has even less visibility this FY.

On the other hand, for EB2 to benefit, CO would have to proactively move the EB2-India FAD forward several months more than the available EB2 visas alone could support.
CO might use any slowdown due to AOS interviews to do so within EB2, but it is a matter of scale and the ability for EB2-ROW to remain Current.

Beyond a certain point, it couldn't really be construed as "accidental". Since there is no law allowing it, personally, I don't think it will happen.

EB2-India can only absolutely rely on any SO from EB1 and SO within EB2.

Moving to a FAD of 01Sep09 to cover your PD would require at least 9k visas, in addition to those already approved in Q1.

[canada]

There is no mechanism within the law to allow unused EB3 visas to be used by either EB1 or EB2.

The law, INA 203, allows:

EB4/EB5 --> EB1
EB1 --> EB2 and
EB2 to EB3

What appears have happened previously, is that CO did not retrogress EB1 quickly enough, allowing EB1 to use more visas than their allocation.
Since both the late retrogression of EB1-China and EB1-India and the non retrogression of EB1 as a whole covered a period of one month worth of visa issuances, then it could be said to be accidental and unforeseen, even though technically unlawful.

In order to stay within the overall 140k limit, CO was forced to limit EB3 approvals to under their otherwise available allocation. This gives the illusion of SO from EB3 to EB1.

It's entirely possible this will be repeated. In fact, with AOS interviews potentially seriously affecting approval timelines, CO has even less visibility this FY.

On the other hand, for EB2 to benefit, CO would have to proactively move the EB2-India FAD forward several months more than the available EB2 visas alone could support.
CO might use any slowdown due to AOS interviews to do so within EB2, but it is a matter of scale and the ability for EB2-ROW to remain Current.

Beyond a certain point, it couldn't really be construed as "accidental". Since there is no law allowing it, personally, I don't think it will happen.

EB2-India can only absolutely rely on any SO from EB1 and SO within EB2.

Moving to a FAD of 01Sep09 to cover your PD would require at least 9k visas, in addition to those already approved in Q1.

Thanks Spectator

So, the spillover can only be horizontal from EB2 itself and there is no chance of spillover from EB1 looking at the way things are going on right now.

Based on your forecast when do you see my PD August 21, 2009 being current? I NOW know that without SO, my date won’t be current. The reason I ask is I follow Trackitt and the analysis is that my date would be current anywhere from March 2019- September 2019

Also these GC forecasting websites

http://www.mygcvisa.com/calculator/default.aspx?n=reset

https://www.myprioritydate.com