EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Spectator]

I noticed, that for the first time, the Full PERM Disclosure Data now also included data for pending cases as well.

e.g. still in analyst review, in audit, appeal etc.

That's a very nice increase in transparency.

[redsox2009]

The Q1 FY2018 PERM Data has been released.

Selected Statistics

PERM Received - 27,050 (This is a 20% increase on Q1 FY2017)
PERM Processed - 18,279 (This is a 26% decrease on Q1 FY2017)
Backlog - 47,717 (This an increase of 23% on the backlog at the end of FY2017)

My two cents

Prevailing Wage request came down starting 2017 Q4 and this Q1 it is down by 19% when compared with 2017 Q4. Hoping this will show effect on next PERM filings.

https://www.foreignlaborcert.doleta...._FY2018_Q1.pdf

I observed this trend, if prevailing wages are up, following Quarter, PERM filings will be up.

[Spectator]

Some snippets from:

Report from AILA DOS (Department of State) Liaison Committee on Predictions and the Transfer of Employment-Based I-485s to USCIS Field Offices.

Predictions and the Transfer of Employment-Based I-485s to USCIS Field Offices.

The new USCIS policy requiring transfer of employment-based I-485s to field offices for interview is expected to increase volatility in final action date movement in the employment-based categories. Members may see faster advancement of certain final action dates in the near term, though once the transition is complete and the USCIS adjudications process has stabilized, there may be slower movement or retrogression in certain categories.

Since the new policy is still in the early stages of implementation, it is not yet clear whether adjudications will be delayed. Delayed adjudications mean less visibility in demand for the State Department, which may result in more rapid forward movement. The timeliness of the sharing of demand data by USCIS may also be impacted, as data will need to be pulled from multiple offices, as opposed to a more centralized approach to adjudications and data collection in the past.

Not surprisingly, field office usage of visa numbers for the first quarter of the fiscal year is much higher than it was last fiscal year. However, the total number of visas used by USCIS as a whole during this period has decreased by several thousand as compared to FY2017. Charlie continues to coordinate with the CIS Ombudsman through this transition, which helps to temper the volatility. He plans to advance categories as needed to generate sufficient demand to ensure usage of all available visa numbers, while trying not to do so too rapidly to avoid retrogression or unavailability.

EB-1 India and EB-1 China.

The imposition of a final action date for EB-1 China and EB-1 India in late FY 2017 created pent up demand which was largely adjudicated in the first quarter of FY 2018. So far, this fiscal year, EB-1 India and EB-1 China have already used 7,000 and 4,500 visa numbers, respectively. Charlie expects these categories to remain current for the coming months, but the imposition of a final action date in the summer remains likely if the current rate of demand continues. This could, however, be delayed if the transition of I-485s to USCIS Field Offices results in slowed processing of EB-1 China and EB-1 India cases in the coming months.

EB-2 India.

Consistent with Charlie's predictions, EB-2 India will again advance by less than one month in February from November 22, 2008, to December 8, 2008. Given heavy demand, the February Visa Bulletin predicts modest forward movement for EB-2 India at a rate of "(u)p to two weeks."

EB-3 India.

The final action date for EB-3 India will advance one month from November 1, 2006, to December 1, 2006. The February Visa Bulletin predicts forward movement in this category at a pace of one to three months. Once the final action date advances beyond August 2007, Charlie will have very little visibility into demand. Once this occurs, there is the potential for rapid movement of the EB-3 India final action date to generate new demand. Members may see this happen next fiscal year or possibly even later this fiscal year.

MEMBER QUESTION:

The February Visa Bulletin appears to have been released later than usual. Is there a reason for the delay?

ANSWER:

Yes, the Visa Bulletin has been issued slightly later this month than in the past. Previously, once the ALDAC cable with the upcoming month's final action dates (the All Diplomatic and Consular Posts monthly cable regarding visa availability) was sent for clearance, the Visa Bulletin would automatically be released to the public. Recently, a separate process for the Visa Bulletin has been implemented, which has caused slight delays in publication.

[EB2-03252009]

Some snippets from:

Does this mean tht there will be SO from EB2-ROW to EB2-I? and if EB2-ROW is current for complete yr, will there be SO from EB2-M and EB2-P to EB2-I?

[rock581]

Some snippets from:

----> However, the total number of visas used by USCIS as a whole during this period has decreased by several thousand as compared to FY2017.

----> This could, however, be delayed if the transition of I-485s to USCIS Field Offices results in slowed processing of EB-1 China and EB-1 India cases in the coming months.

----> Once this occurs, there is the potential for rapid movement of the EB-3 India final action date to generate new demand. Members may see this happen next fiscal year or possibly even later this fiscal year.

The optimist in me thinks that these along with the PERM slowdown could mean a good year for EB2I and EB3I.

Good news is that USCIS could approve EB2I till May 2010 without an interview. So that will be the low hanging fruit.

[EB2-03252009]

read few posts where ppl are expecting SO coz of i-485 interview delays, would be great if we can get trackitt approvals this FY as we can calculate SO if any.

[Nishant_imt]

Gurus, I filed my i485 back in 2012 and since been waiting for GC. I changed jobs on AC21 in 2014 and now I am about to be laid off from that job. I found a new job but they are asking if my I485 is approved. If i am already on EAD for last so many years, does it mean my I 485 is pending or does it mean it got approved only then I received my EAD?

[Jagan01]

Gurus, I filed my i485 back in 2012 and since been waiting for GC. I changed jobs on AC21 in 2014 and now I am about to be laid off from that job. I found a new job but they are asking if my I485 is approved. If i am already on EAD for last so many years, does it mean my I 485 is pending or does it mean it got approved only then I received my EAD?

Your I485 is pending.

[gcq]

Gurus, I filed my i485 back in 2012 and since been waiting for GC. I changed jobs on AC21 in 2014 and now I am about to be laid off from that job. I found a new job but they are asking if my I485 is approved. If i am already on EAD for last so many years, does it mean my I 485 is pending or does it mean it got approved only then I received my EAD?

A good answer to them would be "I don't need visa sponsorship".

[Nishant_imt]

A good answer to them would be "I don't need visa sponsorship".

I did exactly that. They kept on asking the question about approval of I 485 on 3 seperate occasions. And i told them, unintentionally, that its approved. I am thinking of telling them what exactly it is.

[rotikapdaaurgc]

Yes, it's best to give the correct information and not cause any confusion.

I have an EAD too since 2012, I have also got H-1B extensions regularly. This year my H-1B needs to be extended again and I'm wondering whether I should file for H-1B extension or just work based on EAD and forget about H1-B extensions altogether. I'm in a dilemma, the administration is rejecting or delaying too many extension requests lately.

Guys, please advise !

[Jagan01]

I did exactly that. They kept on asking the question about approval of I 485 on 3 seperate occasions. And i told them, unintentionally, that its approved. I am thinking of telling them what exactly it is.

1. Many companies have to open purchase orders per candidate and the lawyers will file application for you only if purchase orders are open (meaning the company is going to pay them).
2. If you say that I485 is approved ,then it means that you will never need any kind of applications to be filed, and thus it saves money for the company
3. With no applications needed to be filed, there is no scope of rejection, and hence peace of mind for the company.
4. I believe stating that I485 is approved is wrong and you should not be stating anything like that. Whether you are on EAD (needs to be renewed every 2 years) or on H1 (renewed every 3 years), you will need to renew something in the near future.

[Jagan01]

Spec,

Any plans of updating the 2018 trackitt data ?

http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...2013-vs-FY2012

[altek001]

Hello Everyone,
Has you possibly noticed that most of recruiters seeking candidates for IT contract jobs are not accepting H-1b's?

Let me know if you all are sharing the same experience. Could this be due to Buy American hire American or the fear of hiring H-1b's during Trump Administration?

[qesehmk]

Interesting that a white guy - a labor leader - defends the rights of immigrants. I admire his integrity.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...broken-n844191

[Suva2001]

Interesting that a white guy - a labor leader - defends the rights of immigrants. I admire his integrity.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/whi...broken-n844191

As far as I can remember he always supported EB based GCs. The reason is simple. Once these workers become GC holders then they would be part of "US" workers and hence they would be part of labor unions.
So he always supported GCs. On the other hand he is always against H-1B without GC application. Everything is related.

Thanks

[iatiam]

Hello Everyone,
Has you possibly noticed that most of recruiters seeking candidates for IT contract jobs are not accepting H-1b's?

Let me know if you all are sharing the same experience. Could this be due to Buy American hire American or the fear of hiring H-1b's during Trump Administration?

I work in the oil and gas industry and can confirm that there is significantly less interest (read almost no) in hiring H1Bs. But keep the following in mind,

1. The industry is struggling: jobs are scarce and H1Bs are only favored when they can't get USCs or GCs
2. H4EADs are being hired: It's an interesting trend when someone is laid off and then hired back in H4EAD.

Let me know IT related experience

Iatiam

[imdeng]

I can confirm from a different perspective - Recruiting events in Universities. We are having whole bunch of issues placing our International students. Situation has really been dire since 2008 - and have now completely cratered. Degree programs that have traditionally been majority international students are being looked at again to get more domestic students since recruiter interests in Internationals are very very low right now.

I work in the oil and gas industry and can confirm that there is significantly less interest (read almost no) in hiring H1Bs. But keep the following in mind,

1. The industry is struggling: jobs are scarce and H1Bs are only favored when they can't get USCs or GCs
2. H4EADs are being hired: It's an interesting trend when someone is laid off and then hired back in H4EAD.

Let me know IT related experience

Iatiam

[srimurthy]

I work in the oil and gas industry and can confirm that there is significantly less interest (read almost no) in hiring H1Bs. But keep the following in mind,

1. The industry is struggling: jobs are scarce and H1Bs are only favored when they can't get USCs or GCs
2. H4EADs are being hired: It's an interesting trend when someone is laid off and then hired back in H4EAD.

Let me know IT related experience

Iatiam

Interesting, but there is skepticism to hire H4EAD atleast in recent timeframes considering the rule making agenda set for reverting or stopping extensions for H4EAD, atleast in the big firms.

[qesehmk]

As far as I can remember he always supported EB based GCs. The reason is simple. Once these workers become GC holders then they would be part of "US" workers and hence they would be part of labor unions.
So he always supported GCs. On the other hand he is always against H-1B without GC application. Everything is related.

Thanks

I think his position is a bit more principled than that. He states ...

Right now when an immigrant comes into this country [to work], they don't have their green card, the employer has their green card. That gives that employer tremendous leverage. If they work in unsafe conditions and they start to complain about it, then they whack them, they get rid of them, and use the green card to bring in somebody else. The point is that the system is broken because workers have too little power.

This means he is thinking of workers in America rather than American workers. And I think that is a very principled position to take.

[billikoot]

I have worked exclusively in management consulting and currently on the chopping block. I have been “in the market” from September of last year. The response has been very limited to an H1 sponsorship. If there are 100 jobs only 1 may be willing to talk to you about sponsorship , but their internal process is verrry slow. I have turned to desi IT consultants and even there it’s on a vague response like can you work as an individual contributor or on contract based off my existing EAD.

Had a question for you all - if I have received 485 and 131 receipts (for kids who are on H4) can I assume they are now on AOS and I can safely move into EAD w/o the need for a continued H1 sponsorship? Will make things easier in the job search.
Thank you!!!

Ps. Sorry I must mention i have received EAD in 2012 but have not used it so far.

[gten20]

Does anyone have experience with Facebook not wanting to sponsor H1B? I was contacted by FB recruiter. When he found out that my current H1B expires end of this year, he said he will get back to me in a couple days as he has to make sure the window is big enough for the transfer to work. He contacted me couple days ago that the "window" (10 month) won't work and to contact him when my H1B gets renewed "OR" once I get Green Card. I wonder if it's the HR way of saying they are not doing H1B's??

[tenyearsgone]

I have worked exclusively in management consulting and currently on the chopping block. I have been “in the market” from September of last year. The response has been very limited to an H1 sponsorship. If there are 100 jobs only 1 may be willing to talk to you about sponsorship , but their internal process is verrry slow. I have turned to desi IT consultants and even there it’s on a vague response like can you work as an individual contributor or on contract based off my existing EAD.

Had a question for you all - if I have received 485 and 131 receipts (for kids who are on H4) can I assume they are now on AOS and I can safely move into EAD w/o the need for a continued H1 sponsorship? Will make things easier in the job search.
Thank you!!!

Ps. Sorry I must mention i have received EAD in 2012 but have not used it so far.

Yes, once I485 is applied for, they are on AOS. You can work on EAD reasonably safely. The only minor concern is the current 7-month timeline for EAD renewals and lack of premium processing or other options to expedite it. You have a 12-month window now for EAD extension to come through.

[tenyearsgone]

Does anyone have experience with Facebook not wanting to sponsor H1B? I was contacted by FB recruiter. When he found out that my current H1B expires end of this year, he said he will get back to me in a couple days as he has to make sure the window is big enough for the transfer to work. He contacted me couple days ago that the "window" (10 month) won't work and to contact him when my H1B gets renewed "OR" once I get Green Card. I wonder if it's the HR way of saying they are not doing H1B's??

Haven't heard of this before. It may be a one-off case where the recruiter doesn't understand things well or is just lazy. It doesn't matter how much "window" is remaining in your current H1B because a change of job gives a max 8-month window to switch to H1B with your new employer.

[gten20]

Haven't heard of this before. It may be a one-off case where the recruiter doesn't understand things well or is just lazy. It doesn't matter how much "window" is remaining in your current H1B because a change of job gives a max 8-month window to switch to H1B with your new employer.

I know, this doesn't sound right. AFAIK, a new employer can apply H1B for you as long as your current H1B has not yet expired on (or 60 days before, because of Obama rule) the day they file the application. But the recruiter verified this info with his HR/Legal team. Maybe he didn't ask the right question to HR or maybe Facebook is not doing H1B (very unlikely). But I don't want to be presumptuous, so I will contact him after my H1B is renewed.

I haven't heard of the 8 month max window before switching to new H1B?? Is that a window where you can start working for the new employer after the H1B has been filed till its approved?