Its actually pretty depressing to see that not only there is no decline in PERM demand - there is actually a significant increase. Only silver lining (sort of, not for people getting in line these days) is that a large proportion of new PERMs are from EB-2/3-I so it does not affect spillover.
Originally Posted by Spectator
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
Year/Month India 2016 China 2016 Row 2016 India 2017 China 2017 Row 2017 India 2018 China 2018 Row 2018 OCT 3726 620 2870 4851 704 2887 2571 473 1979 NOV 3704 574 2484 4118 744 2677 3020 656 2168 DEC 5120 784 3392 3429 604 2413 2337 600 1762 JAN 4441 744 4472 3582 646 2725 393# 93# 307# FEB 5658 942 3795 3830 507 2153 N/A N/A N/A MAR 5622 901 3927 4750 777 2811 N/A N/A N/A APR 5103 793 3333 4646 682 2522 N/A N/A N/A MAY 5898 833 4034 4554 817 3069 N/A N/A N/A JUN 6401 1141 3994 4514 790 2931 N/A N/A N/A JUL 5247 902 3236 2640 452 1644 N/A N/A N/A AUG 5527 899 3366 1808 343 1209 N/A N/A N/A SEP 5397 772 2653 4631 905 3185 N/A N/A N/A TOTAL 61844 9905 41556 47353 7971 30226 8321 1822 6216
# Indicates upto Jan 8th 2018.
I doesn't want to JINX the approvals, right now the PERM approvals are down when compared with previous two Years.
If this trend continues EB2 ROW will be current throught out the year and there might be NICE spill over for EB3 India and China.
South Korea Filings are down, South Korea is the major chunk eater of the ROW visas.
China PERM filings increased compared to previous years.
Also as per the law firm which my company uses, ROW Surge in the PERM filings are due to the Trump Administration Polices, they are worried how it might change in future, and they wanted to file when things are in their favor. But Interview made the perm filings down for ROW as they have to spend extra for translator and attorney.
source for the data is permchecker
India numbers started turning around in Dec 2016 (FY 2017); right after Trump was elected. Must be coincidence.. or is it ?
Nice work, RedSox. This is even before any major policy change and a more than robust economy. As and when the rule makings change this year - H1B employee/employer relation and H1B pre-registration then expect the results to be more dramatic. I think in a year's time we are looking at a scenario where multiple things coming together - EB3I backlog clearing, PERM slowdown, rampant H1B denials. This will be an interesting year to watch in terms of immigration alone.
Iatiam
Spec,
any plans to update trackitt numbers this year?
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
Hi all,
My PD is Dec 2008 EB2I.
I ported from EB3 to EB2 and filed my I485 in Nov'15 when the filing date was introduced. I received EAD/ AP after that. I've been in H1B while renewing my EAD. My medicals had expired long back and I've neither received a RFE (not even at time of renewing EAD/AP) nor an interview appointment till now.
So I have 2 questions:
1) I am not sure what will happen next when the date becomes current in next 2 months (hopefully). Can someone guide ?
2) Since my 485 was filed before the cut off for visa interviews, does that mean I will be exempt from interview ?
I would appreciate the guidance here.
Thanks.
Visa Builletin
https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...uary-2018.html
Employment Second:
Worldwide: Current
China: Several months
India: Up to two weeks
Employment Third:
Worldwide: Current
China: Up to five months
India: One to three months
Mexico: Current
Philippines: Up to one month
EB3 directions mentioned in VB seems very promising. EB2 down in the dumps as usual.
EB2I NSC | PD: 08/07/2009 | Forum Glossary
You should be receiving your RFEs soon for your medicals and I485J if you invoked an AC21. It will happen so do not worry.
Yes, you are exempted from the interview since you filed for 485 in 2015. Good luck buddy and hope your stress levels come down...
Actually EB2I should expect a good spillover from EB3 category, EB3I inventory is deliberately not being built up after July 2007. The spillover in EB3 is expected to be more than the existing numbers till July 2007. USCIS is not accepting filing dates for February too.. it is too late to accept new I485 applications this year and approve them before the end of the fiscal year (with the added interview requirement, it takes even longer)
The interview requirement will also slow down processing in other categories increasing spillover.. all of that will go to EB1C and EB2I
FY2017 Visa Approvals
FY2017-EB Visa Approvals
- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,337 --- 2,559 --- 2,524 ----- 116 -- 7,567 --- 19,103
INDIA ---- 13,081 --- 2,879 --- 6,641 ----- 790 ---- 174 --- 23,565
MEXICO ---- 1,553 --- 1,411 --- 1,794 ----- 707 ----- 85 ---- 5,550
PHIL. ------- 136 --- 1,785 --- 6,675 ----- 228 ------ 0 ---- 8,824
ROW ------ 20,720 -- 31,327 -- 20,136 --- 8,114 -- 2,264 --- 82,561
TOTAL ---- 41,827 -- 39,961 -- 37,770 --- 9,955 - 10,090 -- 139,603
EB 2 Approvals
THEORETICAL SPILLOVER
EB1 ------------- 0
EB2-M ------- 1,392
EB2-P ------- 1,018
EB2-ROW ---- (2,499)
EB4 ------------- 0
EB5 ------------- 0
TOTAL --------- (89)
A potential 281 visas could be available to EB in FY2018.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks Spec
Do the spillovers from EB2-M and EB2-P shld go to EB2-ROW or most backlogged country EB2-I?
EB2-I, PD - 03/25/2009
So, once again EB3 did not get their overall 40k. They got some 2.2k less and those were diverted to EB1. Amazing! They do this same s*** every year and get away with it as there is no accountability.
This also shows that EB3ROW demand seems to be higher than EB3ROW. Wasn't there a discussion here about EB3ROW demand being higher than EB2ROW?
Spillover for EB2-I has completely dried up, just 2879 approvals this year. Does this mean EB2-1 won’t go beyond mid-March 2009 (based on Aug pending inventory) for fiscal year 2018? It looks like all the spillovers are being completely diverted to EB1-I. I’m not sure if EB2-I can get a spillover this fiscal year as well, since EB2-row demand is pretty high, and there is no chance of spillover from EB1-I. Is there any chance of a good spillover for EB2-I this fiscal year or even in the year or years after that?
EB2-I approvals are declining at a rapid rate every year.
2008 --------- 14,806
2009 --------- 10,106
2010 --------- 19,961
2011 --------- 23,997
2012 --------- 19,726
2013 --------- 17,193
2014 --------- 23,527
2015 --------- 7,235
2016 --------- 3,930
2017 --------- 2,879
The only good part is that EB3-I got some spillover this year (6,641 approvals) which will help in catching up with EB2-I, but that’s nothing in comparison to spillover for EB1-I (13,081 approvals). Lucky folks! I guess if the EB3 row demand goes up like EB2 row, then basically neither EB2-I not EB3-I will get any spillover because of huge numbers in EB1-I.
Anyways my other question is it looks like that it will take another 2 years for EB3-I to catch EB2-I. It could take lesser time or even longer. With the EB2-I spillover completely dried up, how long do you think will it take to clear the massive numbers in 2009 as the bulk of numbers start after April 2009 (based on August PI again)? I ask that because without any spillovers for EB2-I just like in 2017 (and the rapid rate at which spillover has declined over last few years) it could take more than 4 years just for EB2-I 2009 to clear.
This is indeed frustrating. It's going to be a long slog for EB2I unless someone clamps down on the fake EB1C filing. Is there some data which shows how the EB1C filings have changed over the last year especially since the interview requirements were introduced last year.
Thank you Spec for the numbers.
Here is my take on these numbers.
These numbers have NOT surprised me but inefficiency in allocating 77.7K visas ONLY in place of 80K QUOTA to EB 3 & 2 categories put together, that’s a 2.3k wastage of visas OR misallocations. Otherwise these 2.2k visas would have gone to EB 2&3 India and would have saved 100s of families struggling with age out kids(so called H4 dreamer kids)
I used to say in my previous posts that EB2 I will not get any relief until the EB3 I catches up with EB2 I. This has become true.
I strongly believe that 90% to 100% of those 2,879 visas in EB2I might have gone to porters (leaving a zero for original EB2 I candidates) and on top of that there might be an increase in EB2 I inventory due to upward porting from EB3 I.
But it will not be too far anymore that this porting is going to become zero and eventually negative (downward from EB2I to EB3I).
This is the reason why I used to say that we have to see EB3-I and EB2-I as together going forward. We can safely expect a total of 10K+ visas to (EB2 - I PLUS EB3 - I) together each year from now on till we see any vertical spillover (if any) in far future (i.e. a minimum of 10k/80k to India in EB 2 and EB 3 categories put together).
Who will claim these 10k+ visas is an entirely different story and it depends on how actively EB2 I people will do downward porting to grab the available visas in EB3 I. A same scenario what we are seeing in EB2I will be seen in EB3I scenario i.e. Eb3I PDs will be stalled at 2009/2010 PDs till the corresponding PDs in EB2I completely exhausted by downward porting.
Hi Spec / YTEleven - What would be your predictions for EB3I for this FY?
USCIS has not honored filing dates for the past 5 months. When do you anticipate FAD to be moved beyond Jul' 2007?
Based on my previous post I’m expecting 10k visas this FY to EB3 & EB2 India put together but practically all these 10K visas will be consumed by EB3 India(both porters and non-porters) that will clear the EB3 India backlogs till DEC2007.
Next year (FY19) with the same number of Visas, EB3 & EB2 India PDs will equate somewhere around 2009 dates and we can see beginning of downward porting from EB2 India.
As per Oct 2017 pending inventory, EB3 India has only about 6000 pending cases. Folks after Aug 2007 will have to attend the interview process which can delay the process. Since they havent moved the EB3I dates so far, does this indicate another year of visa wastage/diversion?
Others are using our data and analysis. Hope it should be for good cause.
Check this: https://twitter.com/anirb_das/status/954384463785549824
Hello YTeleven:
Your conclusions derived from analysis has been close to real progression taking place on EB3I front. Are you anticipating 10k visas to be assigned to EB3I and EB2I in FY2019 as well?
If this happens there are good chances of EB3I PD hovering around Q2 (Jan-Mar)-CY2019 and EB2I around Q4 (Oct-Dec)-CY2019 by Q2-FY2019. Please share your thoughts.
DEC 2017 Consular Processing Figures
DEC 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes
Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 --------287 -------24 -------- 9 ------------- 0 ---- 210 ----- 530
EB2 -------- 05 ------- 2 -------- 1 -------------43 ---- 189 ----- 240
EB3 ---------30 ------ 33 --------25 ----------- 584 ---- 445 -----1117
EB4 --------- 3 -------02 -------- 0 ------------- 2 ----- 77 ------ 84
EB5 ------- 780 ------ 35 -------- 7 ------------- 4 ---- 459 -----1285
Total -----1105 ------ 096 -------42 ----------- 633 ----1380 --- 3,256
Q1 2018 Consular Processing Figures
Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 --------918 ------112 --------15 ------------- 1 ---- 620 -----1666
EB2 -------- 19 -------15 -------- 7 -----------137 ---- 686 ----- 864
EB3 ---------57 ------ 65 --------59 -----------1083 ----1116 -----2380
EB4 --------- 7 -------25 -------- 0 -------------10 -----376 ------418
EB5 -------1996 ------ 77 --------12 ------------- 7 ----1022 -----3114
Total -----2997 ------294 -------93 -----------1238 ----3820 ---- 8442
The Q1 FY2018 PERM Data has been released.
Selected Statistics
PERM Received - 27,050 (This is a 20% increase on Q1 FY2017)
PERM Processed - 18,279 (This is a 26% decrease on Q1 FY2017)
Backlog - 47,717 (This an increase of 23% on the backlog at the end of FY2017)
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
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