EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[altek001]

October 2017 Consular Processing Figures

DOS have published the figures for Oct 2017 https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...issuances.html

Here's the analysis of the Employment Based Classes.

Oct 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes
Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 --------386 -------52 -------- 4 ------------- 1 ---- 244 ----- 687
EB2 -------- 11 ------- 9 -------- 2 -------------69 ---- 269 ----- 360
EB3 ---------10 ------ 20 --------27 ----------- 281 ---- 368 ----- 706
EB4 --------- 3 -------13 -------- 0 ------------- 8 -----172 ------196
EB5 ------- 597 ------ 22 -------- 3 ------------- 0 ---- 238 ----- 860

Total ----- 1007------ 116 -------36 ----------- 359 ----1291 --- 2,809

I wonder how come there are more EB1 issuances than EB2. Are these from EB1C- multinational managers?

[altek001]

Dear Experts,
I have a EB2-India priority date of Oct'2010. I like to know the best case (with spillover) and worst case (without spillover) for my priority date to get current.

In your calculations, please do not use historical DOS visa bulletin movements as they have been erratic over the years, but rather supply and demand. Appreciate your input. Thanks.

[Jagan01]

This is not a memo but an USCIS "Rule" which went through complete comment period and due process. It cannot be withdrawn by publishing a memo. It has to go through same rule making process to withdraw it.

Thanks

I know that its a USCIS rule. It was initially a presedential memorandum and part of the 2014 executive actions taken by Obama. For a complete understanding of the repeal process please refer https://www.perchingtree.com/can-pre...4-ead-program/

There are two ways of achieving a repeal.
- Another EO and quick rule making process to repeal H4EAD (This will be a 90 day long process but the administration can run into lawsuits)
- not being able to defend the SaveJObsUSA lawsuit. (Here Trump admin is not actively doing anything, they are just saying that they tried but were not able to defend)

My whole point was that lets not jump the gun and shout "Make America White Again" etc. The rule was never a law and as such was always going to be difficult to defend.

My personal opinion would be that Obama could have achieved the same outcome in a different way by taking a clue from George Bush. In 2007, the dates were made current for everyone and everyone got EAD/AP. That means work permit for spouse. Instead of all this EO, rule making, etc, a simple change of dates to current would have benefited a much larger population and "nobody would have been able to take it back"

I would say its more about politics and vote banks. If Obama really wanted to do more good to the immigrant community then he could have taken up immigration in his first term in office when dems had majority in Senate and House and pass an immigration law. He chose not to, think why ?

Its all dirty politics.

[skpanda]

I wonder how come there are more EB1 issuances than EB2. Are these from EB1C- multinational managers?

No body can tell for sure.. . I am hazarding a guess. Your guess is as good as mine.

Without Spillover - Your Date may be current in 2023
With Spillover - Your Date may be current around 2020/21.

Note 1: Being current does not mean you will get your green card. It may take another 1 to 3 years to get green card after you get current.
Note 2: Nobody knows if there is any spillover coming our way.
Note 3: My PD is Dec 2010.

Cheers!

[skpanda]

I know that its a USCIS rule. It was initially a presedential memorandum and part of the 2014 executive actions taken by Obama. For a complete understanding of the repeal process please refer https://www.perchingtree.com/can-pre...4-ead-program/

There are two ways of achieving a repeal.
- Another EO and quick rule making process to repeal H4EAD (This will be a 90 day long process but the administration can run into lawsuits)
- not being able to defend the SaveJObsUSA lawsuit. (Here Trump admin is not actively doing anything, they are just saying that they tried but were not able to defend)

My whole point was that lets not jump the gun and shout "Make America White Again" etc. The rule was never a law and as such was always going to be difficult to defend.

My personal opinion would be that Obama could have achieved the same outcome in a different way by taking a clue from George Bush. In 2007, the dates were made current for everyone and everyone got EAD/AP. That means work permit for spouse. Instead of all this EO, rule making, etc, a simple change of dates to current would have benefited a much larger population and "nobody would have been able to take it back"

I would say its more about politics and vote banks. If Obama really wanted to do more good to the immigrant community then he could have taken up immigration in his first term in office when dems had majority in Senate and House and pass an immigration law. He chose not to, think why ?

Its all dirty politics.

The rule making was first introduced in 2011 (long before Obama's Memo in 2014). Obama just introduced the ongoing Rule into his memo. I know this for sure since my spouse is a beneficiary and I have been tracking the rule since the inception.

[bvsamrat]

I know that its a USCIS rule. It was initially a presedential memorandum and part of the 2014 executive actions taken by Obama. For a complete understanding of the repeal process please refer https://www.perchingtree.com/can-pre...4-ead-program/

There are two ways of achieving a repeal.
- Another EO and quick rule making process to repeal H4EAD (This will be a 90 day long process but the administration can run into lawsuits)
- not being able to defend the SaveJObsUSA lawsuit. (Here Trump admin is not actively doing anything, they are just saying that they tried but were not able to defend)

My whole point was that lets not jump the gun and shout "Make America White Again" etc. The rule was never a law and as such was always going to be difficult to defend.

My personal opinion would be that Obama could have achieved the same outcome in a different way by taking a clue from George Bush. In 2007, the dates were made current for everyone and everyone got EAD/AP. That means work permit for spouse. Instead of all this EO, rule making, etc, a simple change of dates to current would have benefited a much larger population and "nobody would have been able to take it back"

I would say its more about politics and vote banks. If Obama really wanted to do more good to the immigrant community then he could have taken up immigration in his first term in office when dems had majority in Senate and House and pass an immigration law. He chose not to, think why ?

Its all dirty politics.

I agree 100% with you Jagan. If we are on a temporary visa or any other visa, we can not comment on current US policies as we are not voters . We just pay taxes to use the facilities.
Only unjust is the country cap and that too is there for a reason
I have heard of enough misuse (We hear the terms bench, layers, 70:30, 80:20 , running pay roll, applicant paying visa fees etc.. Not to speak on wrong resume again). Locals also must be aware of these

[AC_1980]

I have a quick question for the gurus here. We are currently AOS and use EAD for work authorization. We applied for our EAD/AP renewal back in August this year (receipt date Aug 11, 2017, EB2, PD June 2009). We are currently waiting for our renewed EAD/AP combo cards. We are aware of the automatic 180 day extension for (c)(9) category for AOS applicants.

My question is: Can we/ should we take an InfoPass appointment regarding our case? Does USCIS still allow InfoPass with the automatic 180 day extension?

I appreciate any feedback on this matter.
regards

[gten20]

I know that its a USCIS rule. It was initially a presedential memorandum and part of the 2014 executive actions taken by Obama. For a complete understanding of the repeal process please refer https://www.perchingtree.com/can-pre...4-ead-program/

Wrong! H4EAD was not initialized by Obama's Nov. 2014 memo

There are two ways of achieving a repeal.
- Another EO and quick rule making process to repeal H4EAD (This will be a 90 day long process but the administration can run into lawsuits)
- not being able to defend the SaveJObsUSA lawsuit. (Here Trump admin is not actively doing anything, they are just saying that they tried but were not able to defend)

They are actively trying to make immigrants life as hard as possible. Read that article again... and may be some others on his EO's.

My whole point was that lets not jump the gun and shout "Make America White Again" etc. The rule was never a law and as such was always going to be difficult to defend.

First, I never said it was a law. You assumed it is or assumed I said it. Second, What makes you think they are trying to defend H4EAD? Trump administration is trying to revoke H4EAD. But, I did say it's all part of "Make America White Again" and I stand by it. We are collateral damage in his bigger plan of "MAG/WA".

My personal opinion would be that Obama could have achieved the same outcome in a different way by taking a clue from George Bush. In 2007, the dates were made current for everyone and everyone got EAD/AP. That means work permit for spouse. Instead of all this EO, rule making, etc, a simple change of dates to current would have benefited a much larger population and "nobody would have been able to take it back"

I would say its more about politics and vote banks. If Obama really wanted to do more good to the immigrant community then he could have taken up immigration in his first term in office when dems had majority in Senate and House and pass an immigration law. He chose not to, think why ?

Its all dirty politics.

I do believe Obama used Legal immigrants as pawns to get a deal for Dreamers. He used us; plain and simple. In the end he was not able to get the deal done. When Obama came to office everybody was losing jobs, you think passing immigration bill would have worked? He had to fix economy first and that's what he did. You seem to suggest Obama could have made all dates current. Whats stopping Trump then?

This is my last on this topic.

[Jagan01]

Wrong! H4EAD was not initialized by Obama's Nov. 2014 memo

You are wrong buddy. It had been brewing for a long time but everytime it came up, nothing moved. You can go back and check my posts on this site and I have talked about it in 2013 and some have talked about it even before that (check trackitt). Back then it used to be in the register and then the date would keep getting postponed and nothing happened. Eventually in 2014 as part of all the EOs it was revived. I would again stress on the fact that backup your information with source and then you will know what the facts are. Please refer the link to learn the proposed rule posting date of 2014 https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=USCIS-2010-0017

They are actively trying to make immigrants life as hard as possible. Read that article again... and may be some others on his EO's.

First, I never said it was a law. You assumed it is or assumed I said it. Second, What makes you think they are trying to defend H4EAD? Trump administration is trying to revoke H4EAD. But, I did say it's all part of "Make America White Again" and I stand by it. We are collateral damage in his bigger plan of "MAG/WA".

I never contested that Trump admin is anti-immigrant. Its a well known fact. I think you did not understand my statement. The option #2 is an option that would not portray as Trump actively revoking H4EAD. In legal terms, actively revoking and failing to defend are viewed differently. The option #1 would fall under actively revoking and option #2 would be failing to defend and thus for option #2 there cannot be lawsuits.

You tried to give this a racial twist by shouting out "Make America White Again". Immigrants are of all colors. Even Americans are of all colors. So reducing immigration would benefit white/black/brown americans equally. So please do not give me the liberal talk of turning anything and everything into racism.

I do believe Obama used Legal immigrants as pawns to get a deal for Dreamers. He used us; plain and simple. In the end he was not able to get the deal done. When Obama came to office everybody was losing jobs, you think passing immigration bill would have worked? He had to fix economy first and that's what he did. You seem to suggest Obama could have made all dates current. Whats stopping Trump then?

This is my last on this topic.

In 2008 elections the economy was reeling and everyone was losing jobs. Yet, Obama ran on the promise of healthcare and immigration, and immigrants did help him win. Why do you think passing immigration would not have worked in 2009/2010? Was it even attempted? Simple answer is the democrats dont want a permanent solution to immigration and just want the pot boiling as they want the immigrants to always be in their pokets.

Trump is anti-immigrant and he ran on being anti-mmigrant. So I would not expect him to do anything for immigrants. The problem is that some people like Obama run on the promise of immigration and then when they have Senate, house and white house under control they do not even attempt to so anything for immigrants. And yet people keep getting fooled

If Clinton would have come to office then she also would not have done anything for immigrants. May be Bernie Sanders would have, but with the corrupt DNC its difficult to get good leaders to win the democratic primary.

[Jagan01]

The rule making was first introduced in 2011 (long before Obama's Memo in 2014). Obama just introduced the ongoing Rule into his memo. I know this for sure since my spouse is a beneficiary and I have been tracking the rule since the inception.

That attempt from 2011 never materialized. It kept getting postponed and deadlines kept passing by. Check the link https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=USCIS-2010-0017 which gives you information abot when the rule was posted and that was part of the immigration package that Obama worked on.

Just like you, I was also closely observing the 2011 thing and was hopeful as I had not filed my I485 by then, and needed the EAD for my spouse.

[qesehmk]

I do believe Obama used Legal immigrants as pawns to get a deal for Dreamers. He used us; plain and simple. In the end he was not able to get the deal done. When Obama came to office everybody was losing jobs, you think passing immigration bill would have worked? He had to fix economy first and that's what he did.

I just want to say that indeed Obama's bigger priority was dreamers. Between Obama and Trump - there is very little difference over their love (or lack thereof) towards H1B workers. Obama is qualitatively superior and economically sound ... Trump is crass. Trump is using Banon's anti-globalization agenda. I do not think Trump believes in anything other than his own well being. And that is quite scary not just for H1B workers but for America and its ideals.

But thats another topic. I must say - Indians must realize that they don't really have any friends politically speaking. The sooner they realize the better. They must build their own power and lobby for themselves. We are not as weak as you may think. The only problem is we are not united on this issue and hesitate to make noise. My 2 cents.

[Jagan01]

I just want to say that indeed Obama's bigger priority was dreamers. Between Obama and Trump - there is very little difference over their love (or lack thereof) towards H1B workers. Obama is qualitatively superior and economically sound ... Trump is crass. Trump is using Banon's anti-globalization agenda. I do not think Trump believes in anything other than his own well being. And that is quite scary not just for H1B workers but for America and its ideals.

But thats another topic. I must say - Indians must realize that they don't really have any friends politically speaking. The sooner they realize the better. They must build their own power and lobby for themselves. We are not as weak as you may think. The only problem is we are not united on this issue and hesitate to make noise. My 2 cents.

Agreed. We all know that Trump is anti-immigrant. But Obama and other democrats are hipocrites. They can legally acheive a lot for legal/employment-based immigrants as the republicans won't oppose it and there is broad consensus on both sides for legal immigrants. Democrats purposely don't want to address legal immigration separately, think why ?

Now they have become even worse. Republicans want to address DACA and Wall/border-funding together and even that is not acceptable to democrats. The only reason is that democrats don't want anything done for immigration and just want it to be slow boiling issue.

[altek001]

Agreed. We all know that Trump is anti-immigrant. But Obama and other democrats are hipocrites. They can legally acheive a lot for legal/employment-based immigrants as the republicans won't oppose it and there is broad consensus on both sides for legal immigrants. Democrats purposely don't want to address legal immigration separately, think why ?

Now they have become even worse. Republicans want to address DACA and Wall/border-funding together and even that is not acceptable to democrats. The only reason is that democrats don't want anything done for immigration and just want it to be slow boiling issue.

Agreed. He is an anti-immigrant and legal immigrant policies are going to get tougher. One thing is for sure, DACA folks will get to stay as long the border wall is funded. DEM will get DACA to appease their mexican vote bank and REP towards their constituents as campaiged.

There isn't going to be any piecemeal immigration for backlogs or end of country cap..Period.... I know it hurts, but we have to accept the reality.

[altek001]

No body can tell for sure.. . I am hazarding a guess. Your guess is as good as mine.

Without Spillover - Your Date may be current in 2023
With Spillover - Your Date may be current around 2020/21.

Note 1: Being current does not mean you will get your green card. It may take another 1 to 3 years to get green card after you get current.
Note 2: Nobody knows if there is any spillover coming our way.
Note 3: My PD is Dec 2010.

Cheers!

SKPanda,
Good to know. Why would it take 1 to 3 years to get green card if dates are current? Is that the USCIS processing time?

[nbk1976]

Being “current” is a “guesstimate” even for the USCIS; massive porting and other issues cause your file never to reach the adjudicator before dates retrogress. If date becomes current and remains “stable” for a few months, then there can be some reason to be hopeful. As of now, those folk who are in early and mid 2008 can be hopeful.

[Spectator]

I noticed a little nugget about EB1 use in FY2017 from this article about CO comments.

Due to the availability of otherwise unused numbers, last fiscal year, EB-1 China and EB-1 India used approximately 6,300 and 13,000 visa numbers, respectively.

That was despite retrogression of the dates for the final 4 months of the FY.

[suninphx]

I noticed a little nugget about EB1 use in FY2017 from this article about CO comments.



That was despite retrogression of the dates for the final 4 months of the FY.

13000 EB1-I ....in 8 months ... hmm

[AC_1980]

hello everyone,
just wanted to bump up my original post to get some feedback/ advice. I appreciate any help in this regard.

I have a quick question for the gurus here. We are currently AOS and use EAD for work authorization. We applied for our EAD/AP renewal back in August this year (receipt date Aug 11, 2017, EB2, PD June 2009). We are currently waiting for our renewed EAD/AP combo cards. We are aware of the automatic 180 day extension for (c)(9) category for AOS applicants.

My question is: Can we/ should we take an InfoPass appointment regarding our case? Does USCIS still allow InfoPass with the automatic 180 day extension?

I appreciate any feedback on this matter.
regards

[qesehmk]

13000 EB1-I ....in 8 months ... hmm

For a country that has 1.2 billion people and provides 70-80% of H1B candidates .. i would expect Indians getting at least 50% .. but there is this little thing called country quota.. isn't it.

[suninphx]

For a country that has 1.2 billion people and provides 70-80% of H1B candidates .. i would expect Indians getting at least 50% .. .

Sure....specially if you work for a company who knows 'how to game' the system by showing fake org charts, assigning same resources for different managers etc etc. why stop at 50% ..take all 40 K available per year for EB1-I..(plus any other category visa)... we all need more 'international' managers....don't we?

And btw- none of what you mentioned (i.e. population and h1 % ) entitles you for a GC.

[qesehmk]

Sure....specially if you work for a company who knows 'how to game' the system by showing fake org charts, assigning same resources for different managers etc etc. why stop at 50% ..take all 40 K available per year for EB1-I..(plus any other category visa)... we all need more 'international' managers....don't we?

And btw- none of what you mentioned (i.e. population and h1 % ) entitles you for a GC.

Hey be America's guest and wait another 10 years.

I was speaking for the rest that think there is injustice here.

As per the EB1C - why don't you give it a shot? Do you think all of them are cheaters? The reality is obtaining EB1C is much harder than mugging some stupid exam, following the herds to US and then sweating in pants about could've been and should've been.

[suninphx]

I was speaking for the rest that think there is injustice here -->>
Umm - selective injustice ?

As per the EB1C - why don't you give it a shot? -->>
Well I could have obtained it long time back.... but I decided to move on as conscious career choice and I don't regret that decision AT ALL

The reality is obtaining EB1C is much harder than mugging some stupid exam, following the herds to US and then sweating in pants about could've been and should've been.-->>
None of this applies to me ...so not going to answer

PS: People who got lucky and got GC in 3-4 years will NEVER understand pain
PPS: If you think you have not followed the herd to US and achieved something great ...please please prove it with real identity and I would be very happy that a fellow Indian reached to such heights

[qesehmk]

When we talk about so called EB1C abuse - it automatically gives credence to theories about H1B abuse.

This is no different than victimshaming victims of rape.

That is why I am opposed to it.

As per my identity - quite a few people on this forum know me. You need to be in the circle of trust to know it.

If you remember I tried to reach you long time back for a cup of coffee given that your name suggested you are in Phoenix. I never heard back.

I was speaking for the rest that think there is injustice here -->>
Umm - selective injustice ?

As per the EB1C - why don't you give it a shot? -->>
Well I could have obtained it long time back.... but I decided to move on as conscious career choice and I don't regret that decision AT ALL

The reality is obtaining EB1C is much harder than mugging some stupid exam, following the herds to US and then sweating in pants about could've been and should've been.-->>
None of this applies to me ...so not going to answer

PS: People who got lucky and got GC in 3-4 years will NEVER understand pain
PPS: If you think you have not followed the herd to US and achieved something great ...please please prove it with real identity and I would be very happy that a fellow Indian reached to such heights

[suninphx]

When we talk about so called EB1C abuse - it automatically gives credence to theories about H1B abuse.

This is no different than victimshaming victims of rape.

That is why I am opposed to it.

As per my identity - quite a few people on this forum know me. You need to be in the circle of trust to know it.

If you remember I tried to reach you long time back for a cup of coffee given that your name suggested you are in Phoenix. I never heard back.

Comparison you are making is beyond my comprehension so let me leave it at that.

Thanks for invitation (frankly I don't remember it)... Not in PHX currently, but some day...sure.

[qesehmk]

My point is ... lets not do victimshaming. Lets not do anything that badmouths fellow immigrants who have already suffered way too much.

As per Phoenix - I no longer live there. Miss Arizona.

Comparison you are making is beyond my comprehension so let me leave it at that.

Thanks for invitation (frankly I don't remember it)... Not in PHX currently, but some day...sure.