EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[imdeng]

Getting out of 2009 for EB2I is pipe dream at this point. We might not even reach middle of 2009.

That is important data point we have now. Unfortunately for EB2I, it looks like there is no getting out of 2009 this year , but good year ahead for EB3I.

[vedu]

Getting out of 2009 for EB2I is pipe dream at this point. We might not even reach middle of 2009.

Unfortunately I have to agree with you here. We know the demand side of the equation. If the supply side of the equation remains tight, we will spend at least next two years in 2009.

[Jagan01]

It's a shame the Philippines data is missing from the Inventory data.
By process of subtraction, the derived figures would be:

Country -------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EW ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
Philippines -- 4,424 -- 1,239 -- 1,247 ---- 60 ----- 78 ------ 1 ---- 7,049

This compares to the following figures for April 2017:

Country -------- EB1 ---- EB2 ---- EB3 ---- EW ---- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
Philippines ---- 177 -- 1,141 -- 2,384 ---- 83 ----- 57 ------ 0 ---- 3,842

The difference in the EB1 figure stands out. It is a factor bigger than EB1-Philippines has ever been before (generally under 200), so the authenticity must be doubtful.

Edit: Definitely something screwy with the EB1 figures. Subtractions give Philippines 3.4k EB1 cases in 2007/2008 and some months /years have negative values. That calls into question whether the 60.3k total EB1 cases is correct.

Fed up of the sloppiness USCIS has shown recently towards the Inventory figures!!

I had lost all hopes and stopped visiting the forums. Just releasing the inventory by itself is something that made me happy.

At least EB2I would move to 2009 for FY18.

[altek001]

Can someone please share on the number of applicants filing PERM for FY2010( Oct 2009 to Sep 2010) for EB1, EB2 and EB3 by country of chargeability?. What would be the total number of perm applicants for that year?

[altek001]

No one else other than the Indians or Chinese to some extend care about the inventory numbers. It is a surprise in itself that they actually released something. At this point, USCIS derives sadistic pleasure that we simply collect all the bread crumbs they throw at us.

Also, under Trump administration, this is the first time that USCIS is not accepting Filing Dates even for the Oct VB. Lives of legal immigrants waiting in line will only get harder from now on. The anti-immigrants are finally empowered. They are following their agenda - "Make lives of those waiting in line legally so that even they will eventually get frustrated and leave".

http://thehill.com/homenews/administ...k-in-us-report

I think DOJ/ Trump administration is in the process of closing H1/L1/H4 EAD loopholes by issuing increased RFE's. Gone are the days when PP was filed to make USCIS work fast in the 15 day TAT. 45% RFE's issued is a clear signal to worry about. In the DACA bill, they are proposing cuts to H1b from 65K to 50K, and include elimination of country cap limits as this helps DACA as they are predominantly from Mexico. H4 EAD is sure to get impacted September 2017.

What I am thinking is, by closing the Non- Immigrant visa loopholes, USCIS will ask DACA applicants to get in line for green cards. We should take this news positively, as DACA folks will not wait many years (like us) and this could help us to a great extent. They will need to remove the country caps as Mexico needs a chunk of Visa numbers for DACA recipients, thereby Indian and Chinese applicants are sure to get that big slice from the Pie.

[altek001]

This is breaking news on cuts to Immigrant visas from a few countries. Let's hope the spillover benefits us.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ouncement.html

[Spectator]

This is breaking news on cuts to Immigrant visas from a few countries. Let's hope the spillover benefits us.

https://travel.state.gov/content/tra...ouncement.html

altek001,

I don't think people should revel in the pain of others as a way to get extra visas for themselves. It's unbecoming.

In any case, it has virtually no effect.

For FY2016, the total number of GC issued to the affected countries was 1,991 which was 1.4% of total approvals. Iran accounted for 79.5% of these.

It's not clear whether the proclamation also applies to AOS, or only applies to those visas issued at consulates. The total number of immigrant visas issued at consulates to the affected countries in FY2016 was 384. 133 were issued to EB1, 81 were issued to EB2 and 90 were issued to EB3.

Iran accounted for 76.6% of immigrant visas issued and 86.8% of those issued in EB1-EB3.

[altek001]

altek001,

I don't think people should revel in the pain of others as a way to get extra visas for themselves. It's unbecoming.

In any case, it has virtually no effect.

For FY2016, the total number of GC issued to the affected countries was 1,991 which was 1.4% of total approvals. Iran accounted for 79.5% of these.

It's not clear whether the proclamation also applies to AOS, or only applies to those visas issued at consulates. The total number of immigrant visas issued at consulates to the affected countries in FY2016 was 384. 133 were issued to EB1, 81 were issued to EB2 and 90 were issued to EB3.

Iran accounted for 76.6% of immigrant visas issued and 86.8% of those issued in EB1-EB3.

Dear Spectator,
It does not give much pleasure in me doing that. Indians have been discriminated long enough with country quota caps, back tracking of visa bulletins(oct 2015) and visa retrogression. In 2012, the PD was may 2010 and I thought it was close, but USCIS pushed the dates back. There is no country caps on h1, but there is on GC... Why ? America needs cheap temporary labor where folks can come and go or wait longer if they really need green cards.... I do not see any other reason than this, played very well by USCIS. For a moment.... think, the revenue USCIS generates on H1, H4, RFE, EAD and exorbitant AP and 485 filings.

If other countries can benefit by pushing our green cards in backlog when they applied after us, then there is nothing wrong to benefit numbers (though paltry) from this Sep 24 ban. I have been waiting for GC for long and have seen EB3 folks marrying ROW just for the sake of chargeability. You will now realize this is not a level playing field where everyone is treated equal. While you may not agree with me, Just thought of putting a few pointers.

[geniusmag]

Dear Spectator,
It does not give much pleasure in me doing that. Indians have been discriminated long enough with country quota caps, back tracking of visa bulletins(oct 2015) and visa retrogression. In 2012, the PD was may 2010 and I thought it was close, but USCIS pushed the dates back. There is no country caps on h1, but there is on GC... Why ? America needs cheap temporary labor where folks can come and go or wait longer if they really need green cards.... I do not see any other reason than this, played very well by USCIS. For a moment.... think, the revenue USCIS generates on H1, H4, RFE, EAD and exorbitant AP and 485 filings.

If other countries can benefit by pushing our green cards in backlog when they applied after us, then there is nothing wrong to benefit numbers (though paltry) from this Sep 24 ban. I have been waiting for GC for long and have seen EB3 folks marrying ROW just for the sake of chargeability. You will now realize this is not a level playing field where everyone is treated equal. While you may not agree with me, Just thought of putting a few pointers.

I see people of all different color, cast , creed and nationality get GC much earlier even though I have been here for 13 years. What exactly is my fault ? How can I change my country of birth please ?

[saagar_is_cool]

Hi All,

Posting here for visibility and advise. I have filed for my EAD renewal (I-485 AOS and second renewal) and Receipt Date was June 30 2017 for me and the spouse. My EAD/AP expires on Oct 25 2017. I am at around 90 days since the filing and no response beyond the Receipt Notice. Last time, I raised a SR at 75 days saying it is approaching " Approaching Regulatory Timeframe “service request" on my EAD/AP renewal". But one of my friends told me this time that due to 180 day automatic extension, raising SR at 75 days is no longer an option and it should be at 165 days. Which is true. Does anyone have experience in this regard. Please advise.

[altek001]

I see people of all different color, cast , creed and nationality get GC much earlier even though I have been here for 13 years. What exactly is my fault ? How can I change my country of birth please ?

You are not at fault at all, my friend. I have seen it all along the way. If you are unmarried, consider getting married to one who is from ROW.

Even lawyers like murthy, Rajiv khanna, Greg Siskind who are considered key folks for Pro-legal immigration haven't done anything as they get to benefit from our money.

When DACA illegals can get their voices heard and every news channel can trumpet their voice, what can't WE , living legally get our voiced heard?.

When Apple, Google and IBM CEO's can support DACA, why can't they raise concern on their thousands of Employees stuck in Green card Backlog?

Will a demonstration at the white house help in getting our voices heard? Absolutely...but i have not seen any Legal Immigration Groups organize that kind of event...The Indian Legal community is on its own. There is not going to be any legistation, or country cap elimination UNLESS we protest.

[mechanical13]

Hi All,

Posting here for visibility and advise. I have filed for my EAD renewal (I-485 AOS and second renewal) and Receipt Date was June 30 2017 for me and the spouse. My EAD/AP expires on Oct 25 2017. I am at around 90 days since the filing and no response beyond the Receipt Notice. Last time, I raised a SR at 75 days saying it is approaching " Approaching Regulatory Timeframe “service request" on my EAD/AP renewal". But one of my friends told me this time that due to 180 day automatic extension, raising SR at 75 days is no longer an option and it should be at 165 days. Which is true. Does anyone have experience in this regard. Please advise.

There is no change in the ability to request a service request after 75 days have elapsed.

https://www.uscis.gov/forms/tip-shee...g-more-75-days

They won't categorize the request as "regulatory time frame" approaching, but they will continue to take action.

Hope this helps.

[Spectator]

Latest report from CO's monthly meeting with AILA:

VISA BULLETIN ANALYSIS, PREDICTIONS THROUGH 2017

by CMusillo
09-26-2017 at 09:31 AM

The Department of State’s Visa Bulletin guru, Charlie Oppenheim, hosts monthly meetings with the American Immigration Lawyers Association. Charlie Oppenheim is the Department of State’s Chief of the Control and Reporting Division. He is the officer who is responsible for producing the Visa Bulletin each month.

This month’s Check In With Charlie featured projections for EB2 and EB3, which are the most popular categories for readers of this Blog. Here are some of this month’s highlights, along with our analysis:

EB-2 and EB-3 Worldwide.

These categories will remain current for the foreseeable future.

EB-2 India.

This category is expected to progress one month at a time. It should move into 2009 sometime in early 2018.

EB-3 India.

This category will not progress in November because of heavy demand at the end of the last fiscal year. It may slowly progress in December.

EB-3 Philippines.

In FY 2018, we will not see this category move nearly as fast as it did in FY 2017. Phils EB-3 is expected to progress 1-2 months per Visa Bulletin in the future.

Link

[iatiam]

"U.S. will phase out program for Central American child refugees" - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKCN1C234G

how will this affect spillover from eb4 category

[geniusmag]

Latest report from CO's monthly meeting with AILA:



Link

They keep putting out these random dates every now and then . I have been following these comments from AILA/CO from years and yet to come across a time when they actually put their money where their mouth is.

Does they really have any credibility left ? Honestly, I feel more value in someone like Spec predicting or forecasting future date movements.

[Spectator]

"U.S. will phase out program for Central American child refugees" - http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...-idUSKCN1C234G

how will this affect spillover from eb4 category

iatiam,

I'm not sure it has much effect.

As I understand from the article, the CAM program allowed pre-approval in their own Country as an alternative to making the trip.

SIJ cases are already in the USA and have been processed through the US court system prior to the I-360/I-485 applications.

At the end of Q3, USCIS had received 16.4k I-360 SIJ applications for FY2017. There had been 10.3k I-360 SIJ approvals and 13.4k SIJ cases remained pending.

For I-360 as a whole (including SIJ) USCIS received 28.8k cases in FY2017 to the end of Q3, 18.6k I-360 had been approved and 32.3k remained pending.

I think it will be at least a couple more years before there is any chance of lower EB4 approvals even if the SIJ program were to be scrapped. Even without those cases, EB4 has pretty healthy demand.

I think it's also true to say that more than enough demand in EB1 exists to use up any unused visas from EB4.

[redsox2009]

August 2017 Consular Processing Figures

DOS have published the figures for August 2017 https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...issuances.html

Here's the analysis of the Employment Based Classes.

August 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes

Class --- China --- India --- Mexico --- Philippines---- ROW --- Total
EB1 ------- 00 ------ 0 ------- 1 ------------ 0 ---- 223 ----- 224
EB2 ------- 10 ------ 13------- 0 ----------- 06 ---- 019 ----- 048
EB3 ------- 02 ----- 09 ------ 02 ---------- 197 ---- 374 ----- 588
EB4 -------- 0 ----- 14 ------- 0 ------------08 ---- 136 ----- 158
EB5 ------ 659 ----- 11 ------- 4 ----------- 0 ----- 232 ----- 906

Total ---- 675 ----- 47 ------ 07 ---------- 211 ---- 984 --- 1,924

[Spectator]

redsox2009,

Thanks for the heads up.

I get slightly different figures:

Country --------- EB1 --- EB2 --- EB3 --- EB4 --- EB5 --- Total
China ------------- 0 ---- 10 ----- 6 ----- 0 --- 669 ----- 685
India ------------- 0 ---- 13 ----- 9 ---- 14 ---- 11 ------ 47
Mexico ------------ 1 ----- 0 ----- 2 ----- 0 ----- 4 ------- 7
Philippines ------- 0 ----- 6 --- 312 ----- 8 ----- 0 ----- 326
ROW ------------- 223 ---- 19 --- 374 --- 136 --- 213 ----- 965

Grand Total ----- 224 ---- 48 --- 703 --- 158 --- 897 --- 2,030

Not a huge difference.

The biggest difference is EB3-Philippines. This how my figure is derived:

Philippines -- EW5 ---- 4 -- EB3
Philippines -- EW4 ---- 1 -- EB3
Philippines -- EW3 ---- 2 -- EB3
Philippines -- E35 -- 115 -- EB3
Philippines -- E34 --- 72 -- EB3
Philippines -- E32 --- 54 -- EB3
Philippines -- E31 --- 64 -- EB3

Total --------------- 312

The difference of 115 from your figure of 197 appears to be:

E35 -- Child of E31 or E32

[bluelabel]

Hello Spec and other Experts,

With new rule of mandated interviews for EB I-485s filed on or after March 6 2017, USCIS expecting an overhead delay of 17% in processing time. Will it cause at least 10% of less ROW approvals by end of the year? Since most of the people who filed I-485s on or after March 6 2017 in EB2 and EB3 are from ROW and no mandated interviews for EB2I and EB3I for people who filed I-485s in 2012 and 2007, will there be a spill over of around 4000 in both EB2 and EB3 if not more?

What's your prediction for EB2I and EB3I PD movement for FY 2018?

Thanks!!!

[altek001]

Hello
USCIS moved the dates of original october 2015 visa bulletin with the rationale that they will not be able to process so many applications within the timeframe. If that's the case, how come they were able to process 700K DACA applications so quickly.
Do you think USCIS is favoring DACA cases over legal immigrants or is it hate towards the Indian community?

[altek001]

Hello
USCIS moved the dates of original october 2015 visa bulletin with the rationale that they will not be able to process so many applications within the timeframe. If that's the case, how come they were able to process 700K DACA applications so quickly.
Do you think USCIS is favoring DACA cases over legal immigrants or is it hate towards the Indian community?

[altek001]

Demands of President Trump for DACA deal. See below

http://www.politico.com/f/?id=000001...e-ff3d27fb0000

[tatikonda]

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...mber-2017.html

As expected no significant movement

EB2-India is 08OCT08, 3 weeks forward movement from Oct VB15SEP08.

[maverick23]

USCIS not accepting Filing date for EB category in November bulletin as well? Also, CO seems to be using the same strategy of allocating visas based on FY 2017 strategy...for now (no indications of applying spillover early , especially in the EB3-I category even though EB3-ROW has been current since August).

Given that AOS applications are taking an average of 8 months to process start to finish and may the avg. processing time may only trend upwards with interview requirements, are we not facing a risk of visa wastage in the EB3 category ? Spec and other gurus - any guidance when the filings dates may be accepted by USCIS or are we going to stick to final action dates for EB category in FY 2018. For FB category though , USCIS is accepting filing dates...

[zenmaster]

USCIS not accepting Filing date for EB category in November bulletin as well? Also, CO seems to be using the same strategy of allocating visas based on FY 2017 strategy...for now (no indications of applying spillover early , especially in the EB3-I category even though EB3-ROW has been current since August).

Given that AOS applications are taking an average of 8 months to process start to finish and may the avg. processing time may only trend upwards with interview requirements, are we not facing a risk of visa wastage in the EB3 category ? Spec and other gurus - any guidance when the filings dates may be accepted by USCIS or are we going to stick to final action dates for EB category in FY 2018. For FB category though , USCIS is accepting filing dates...

Just my 2 cents :
Regarding the AOS interviews, i think USCIS/DOS has made it clear that they are mandatory only for persons filing 485 on or after March 6th, 2017.
I don't see any delays due to interviews for EB2/EB3 people who have already filed 485 and waiting. Infact, interviews for ROW/EB1 candidates might impact EB2 positively overall.