EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[vedu]

Jagan,

I'll preface this post by saying that speculation about EB3 is likely to make me look very foolish over the passage of time.

Even trying to predict EB3-I is massively hampered by the lack of clarity beyond 2006, compounded by the effect porting / abandonment has had on the numbers.

Remainder of FY2017

If a further 2k SO is made available in September, the Cut Off Date might move to the end of 2006.

2007

For 2007, it's worth noting that only around 75% of cases with a PD of Jan-July 2007 had the PERM certified by the end of July 2007.
For 2007 as a whole, slightly under 40% of PERM cases had been certified by the end of July 2007.
The above can never have filed an I-485 under EB3, since the dates have never been current since July 2007.
Another factor is that there may be a significant number of spouses yet to file I-485 for those cases that have survived and are still in EB3. Most children are likely to be US citizens.

The current USCIS Inventory shows about 2k for Jan-July 2007. Taking the above into account, maybe the total for EB3-I for all of 2007 is nearer 6k.

2008

2008 has similar PERM numbers to 2007.

2009 to mid 2010

There is a dip in PERM certifications for this period. After July 2010 the numbers ramp up considerably.


With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019.

However, that sort of movement is likely to trigger reverse porting to EB3 by EB2-I. That is going to be far more messy than the situation seen with China, both because the disparity between EB2/EB3 demand is much greater and also due to the much larger overall demand. Once reverse porting starts, it will halt decent movement in EB3-I completely.

That assumes good SO within EB3. There's still something of a disparity between EB3-ROW Inventory numbers and the number of actual approvals which remains a concern.

The other factor that occurs to me is one of timing of forward movement of Cut Off Dates.

Currently, it seems to be taking 7-8 months for a new I-485 to be approved from submission. The majority of EB3-I movement generally occurs in the last quarter of the FY when the amount of SO can be assessed.

To ensure that sufficient cases are available to be approved, I think CO is going to have to be fairly aggressive in setting the EB3-I Filing Date at the beginning of FY2018 AND USCIS need to accept it.

Otherwise, there is the risk that visas could be available at the end of the FY without a sufficient number of cases in a position to use them. If USCIS don't accept Filing Dates, CO would be a brave man to advance the Final Action Date sufficiently early (the only other alternative) to have sufficient cases ready for approval. That would probably lead to situation of more demand than available visas at that point of time. I'm not convinced he would follow this course of action, particularly if he sees any uptick in EB3-ROW demand.

I accept the above might be a complete load of ill thought out rubbish, but perhaps it can be a starting point for those that wish to discuss the issue.

Spec,

Good to see such a detailed email from you in a long time! October visa bulletin with the accompanying pending I-485 inventory report will provide better insights into the next year. Even though EB2I remains static for now, there are lot of good things going on beneath the surface (significant reduction in porting going forward, new administration's efforts to curb immigration which will most likely show their impact next year, etc.). A good strong foundation is being built on from which EB2I cut-off dates will progress more reliably next years. The pace may be low, but gone are the old days of retrogression, back and forth, etc.

[Spectator]

I thought I would look at the potential queues for EB4 and EB5 to assess when or if they might start giving SO again in the future.

To do so, I've looked at the petitions for each (I-360 and I-526).

EB4

The I-360 need to be split between SIJ cases and non-SIJ cases. The reason for this that SIJ approvals at I-485 stage can only use 1 visa.

I've taken into account the different approval rates in arriving at a number. Receipt numbers show no sign of decreasing yet.

I-360 approvals in FY2017 are on track for 26.7k, which would eventually equate to visa usage of 31.4k

In addition, there were 27.4k I-360 pending. They could equate to demand for a further 28.6k visas.

In total possible known demand would be around 60k visas which equates to 6 years of EB4 allocation.


EB5

As well as the factors above, EB5 has a large number of cases already awaiting Consular Processing when the PD becomes current (mosly Chinese).

Demand from 2017 I-526 approvals -------- 36.3k
Demand from pending I-526 --------------- 60.8k
Demand at NVC --------------------------- 24.6k

Total Demand --------------------------- 121.7k (it's likely that China accounts for around 113k of this figure.)

This equates to around 12 years of EB5 allocation.

It's probably worth noting that the processing time for an I-526 has now stretched to 19.5 months.


Conclusion

Even allowing for a large error margin on the above numbers, it's clear that EB4 and EB5 are not going to provide SO in the near term.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Thanks for the insight Spec. This basically proves that people can forget about any sort of vertical SO in the near future, as EB1 too is oversubscribed. Only horizontal SO can now happen to provide some relief. Of course, the only remaining vertical SO is UPWARD when EB3 GCs are taken out and given to EB1 and EB2.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Spec, I was reading through your detailed post and there was one sentence which struck me. When you said:

"With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019." I am guessing you meant Final Action Date right? Of course, the Filing Date concept is another issue all together as many beyond July 07 are simply waiting to file AOS.

Of course, if EB3I does end at Jan 07 by end of this FY, then EB3I will not have enough pending inventory for next year's quota. Of course, we know there are some who missed the bus in July 2007 but many have ported since then too. What would be interesting is where CO puts the Filing Dates beyond July 07? Will he do that for the October VB itself? And like you said, USCIS will have to honor it as the inventory is not enough for the yearly allocation since EB3I has been getting some decent SO now.

I would really like to know where CO would put the filing date for EB3I beyond July 07.

[GCdreamz]

September Bulletin in Second week of August and October Bulletin in Second week of September will be very interesting especially for EB3-India.

Just my assumption - I think EB3-India will move to Jan 2009 either in October bulletin or in Summer of 2009 and end in 2010 by end of Fiscal Year 2018.

I am expecting lot of scrambling between EB2I & EB3I from summer/last quarter of 2018 onwards. Just assumptions based on my analysis.

[vedu]

Spec,

I understand the picture doesn't look pretty for EB2I applicants beyond year 2009. The slow and steady progress doesn't do anything for them. I was taking a narrow view from the perspective of my own priority date which is in April 2010. So, slow and steady movement works for me. With EAD already in hand, I can afford to wait patiently for my turn in this long crazy queue. It may take 2 years, or who knows even 3 years! The first real indication of getting closer will be when the filing dates touch April 2010.

I wish EB2I should complete 2008 cases this year, but it is not going to happen. Next year it seems certainty though! Another thing, we all have doubts about the correctness of April pending I-485 inventory. But if it is correct, then it will be another big relief for EB2I. The report shows 2009 and 2010 cases drastically reduced and as for 2008, we are already getting to the fag end of it.

[dubnis]

Spec, I was reading through your detailed post and there was one sentence which struck me. When you said:

"With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019." I am guessing you meant Final Action Date right? Of course, the Filing Date concept is another issue all together as many beyond July 07 are simply waiting to file AOS.

Of course, if EB3I does end at Jan 07 by end of this FY, then EB3I will not have enough pending inventory for next year's quota. Of course, we know there are some who missed the bus in July 2007 but many have ported since then too. What would be interesting is where CO puts the Filing Dates beyond July 07? Will he do that for the October VB itself? And like you said, USCIS will have to honor it as the inventory is not enough for the yearly allocation since EB3I has been getting some decent SO now.

I would really like to know where CO would put the filing date for EB3I beyond July 07.

Dear Amigo!
Well, with 32k global demand for EB3I and 40k allocation clearly 8k ought to come as SO to EB3I - the most backlogged category's country applicant in sequence. If CO follows the rules or uses his discretion wisely the PD can go beyond 2007 this FY. If we also assume the 11k demand from EB3I has been taken into account in the 32k global or is a subset of it then the total SO will be 19k which should move the EB3I PDs well into early 2009 by this year end!

[tatikonda]

Hi All,

It is obvious that EB2/EB3- India is stuck in and there will be no decent movement in numbers without any legislative efforts.
I know, we have seen several bills came and died in house/senate but we can't loose hope in it.

please support this bill. Call your congressmen and ask them to support this bill.

https://yoder.house.gov/media-center...immigrants-act

Regards
Tatikonda.

[iatiam]

Spec,

As always, thank you for the voice of reason. Much appreciated.

I do have a question on EB2 and EB3 demand for ROW. Do you see a reduction in demand for EB2/EB3 ROW? As you recent numbers show, the PERM approvals seem to have slowed down and almost 20% lower than last year. Is this due to genuine slowdown (slowing economy, immigration restrictions etc) or due to delay in approvals which may pickup pace later?

What is your prediction on overall SO that EB2I/EB3I will receive this year? Are we close enough to the end game to even predict this?

Iatiam

[dubnis]

Spec,

As always, thank you for the voice of reason. Much appreciated.

I do have a question on EB2 and EB3 demand for ROW. Do you see a reduction in demand for EB2/EB3 ROW? As you recent numbers show, the PERM approvals seem to have slowed down and almost 20% lower than last year. Is this due to genuine slowdown (slowing economy, immigration restrictions etc) or due to delay in approvals which may pickup pace later?

What is your prediction on overall SO that EB2I/EB3I will receive this year? Are we close enough to the end game to even predict this?

Iatiam

Dear Amigo!
I have never digged in too much to derive any meaningful conclusions which could still evade us at some point because of unknown factors. However, looking at last pending inventory this is a simple SO calculation here: EB3 --> 32k demand globally which includes India's EB3I's 11k also. With this the total Spill Over should be --> 40k - 32k = 8k + 11k = 19k and all of this ought to come to EB3I given the most backlogged category and country! If CO uses his discretion wisely EB3I - PDs could easily cross 2008 by the end of FY-2018. Now how the progression happens may be hard to predict!

[iatiam]

Dear Amigo!
I have never digged in too much to derive any meaningful conclusions which could still evade us at some point because of unknown factors. However, looking at last pending inventory this is a simple SO calculation here: EB3 --> 32k demand globally which includes India's EB3I's 11k also. With this the total Spill Over should be --> 40k - 32k = 8k + 11k = 19k and all of this ought to come to EB3I given the most backlogged category and country! If CO uses his discretion wisely EB3I - PDs could easily cross 2008 by the end of FY-2018. Now how the progression happens may be hard to predict!

I think you are double-dipping here. You cannot add 32K with 11K. The EB3I quota is 2,300; so the total available SO is 2,300 + 8,000 = 10,300 which also assumes that no new cases have been added to inventory since April which is a huge assumption.

That would barely clear the 485 inventory for EB3I.

Iatiam

[dubnis]

I think you are double-dipping here. You cannot add 32K with 11K. The EB3I quota is 2,300; so the total available SO is 2,300 + 8,000 = 10,300 which also assumes that no new cases have been added to inventory since April which is a huge assumption.

That would barely clear the 485 inventory for EB3I.

Iatiam

Amigo!
I always thought all EB category quota was 2800 and heard that there is a new rule that would increase it to 3000. Is not the 32k global demand for EB3 that includes India's also? Okay, let us assume that is not the case. Looking at SO which will be 10K as you mention should meet the demand till Mar 2007. In the next FY2018 there should be fresh quota released and no one has visibility of the expected demand beyond Jul 2007. Is it reasonable to assume that EB3I - PD will move beyond 2007 by the end of this calendar year 2017 to build up the inventory so that CO can decide how to allocate the visa numbers.

[Spectator]

I've updated the PERM Data in the FACTS & DATA section with the Q3 disclosure data.

[vedu]

There is a small possibility of EB2I retrogression after all!

From Murthy's website:

"Due to a spike in ‘upgrade’ cases from the employment-based, third preference (EB3) category, EB2 India will not advance in September 2017, and may even retrogress. If that occurs, the cutoff date would return to the current date of July 22, 2008, in October".

The good news is that EB2I is expected to move forward by one year, so that would be July 2009, not bad!

"More discouraging is the fact that, for FY18, EB2 India is predicted to advance at about the same pace as it did in fiscal year 2017 (FY17). If that holds true, this category would only advance by about one year by the end of FY18. Moreover, any such advancement is expected to be made fairly conservatively for the first quarter of the fiscal year, in order, hopefully, to avoid major retrogression later."

Source: https://www.murthy.com/2017/07/20/au...ions-for-fy18/

[Spectator]

vedu,

Thanks for the heads up.

I also found another article that discusses other categories as well.

http://visaserve.com/lawyer/2017/07/...17_bl31078.htm

I'm not sure i would agree with Murthy's comment about 1 year movement in FY2018 for EB2-I. That would likely require 10k visas (using the more conservative January 2017 Inventory figures). I don't see where the SO would be coming from.

[vedu]

Spec,

Thanks for the link. This article is much more detailed in its explanations for different categories. I agree with you regarding the fate of EB2I. Let's just hope that EB2I moves out of 2008 next year. That will be such a psychological relief!

[srisri007]

vedu,

Thanks for the heads up.

I also found another article that discusses other categories as well.

http://visaserve.com/lawyer/2017/07/...17_bl31078.htm

I'm not sure i would agree with Murthy's comment about 1 year movement in FY2018 for EB2-I. That would likely require 10k visas (using the more conservative January 2017 Inventory figures). I don't see where the SO would be coming from.

Hi Spec, Should we view CO's comments on the movement being same as this year for FY18 on the supply and not on the demand side. Did he meant to say that EB2I would receive same number of GC's in FY18 as it received in FY17?

[HarepathekaIntezar]

Hi Spec, Should we view CO's comments on the movement being same as this year for FY18 on the supply and not on the demand side. Did he meant to say that EB2I would receive same number of GC's in FY18 as it received in FY17?

Sorry to upset your applecart, but Yes, he meant precisely this - "EB2I would receive same number of GC's in FY18 as it received in FY17". Just hang in there for 1 more year and once EB3I clears out, then EB2I will move in tandem with EB3I.

[srimurthy]

Sorry to upset your applecart, but Yes, he meant precisely this - "EB2I would receive same number of GC's in FY18 as it received in FY17". Just hang in there for 1 more year and once EB3I clears out, then EB2I will move in tandem with EB3I.

I guess unless the country limits are removed from Employment based GC's and the waiting period is felt equally by all, there will be little change. Upto that point the backlog to exist for India, China, and a couple more countries in one category or the other.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Looks like 2018 could be the year when EB2I and EB3I dates finally match up, and it could be somewhere in 2008.

[hope21]

Spec,

Thanks for the comprehensive details/calculations.

Question to you/Spec, Q and other gurus.. I have EB2 Priority date of Early 2010 and I have EADs for me and my wife (as we filed for 485 Stage in 2012). My wife has EB3 priority date of late 2007 (as you know EB3 was never current so no 485 filed). The way things are going, it seems EB3 should be current sometime in 2018. Couple of questions -


1.Whenever EB3 dates are current, I don't think we need to file for 485 stage again. We just have to let them know that our 485 is already pending with EB2 (with Souse/my priority date of Early 2010). Now my question is - Is there any form that we need to fill. When the dates become current for EB3, how would they adjust/link this that our EB2 485 is already pending, they need to link/adjust my 485 file with EB3 priority date (with my wife's EB3 date). What's the process for that.
2.Once I get to know the process for my question 1, I believe I have to let them know whenever Filing dates are current, right (I don't think we need to wait for Final Action Dates to be current). Am I right on this?

Please advise, thanks for the help in advance.

Jagan,

I'll preface this post by saying that speculation about EB3 is likely to make me look very foolish over the passage of time.

Even trying to predict EB3-I is massively hampered by the lack of clarity beyond 2006, compounded by the effect porting / abandonment has had on the numbers.

Remainder of FY2017

If a further 2k SO is made available in September, the Cut Off Date might move to the end of 2006.

2007

For 2007, it's worth noting that only around 75% of cases with a PD of Jan-July 2007 had the PERM certified by the end of July 2007.
For 2007 as a whole, slightly under 40% of PERM cases had been certified by the end of July 2007.
The above can never have filed an I-485 under EB3, since the dates have never been current since July 2007.
Another factor is that there may be a significant number of spouses yet to file I-485 for those cases that have survived and are still in EB3. Most children are likely to be US citizens.

The current USCIS Inventory shows about 2k for Jan-July 2007. Taking the above into account, maybe the total for EB3-I for all of 2007 is nearer 6k.

2008

2008 has similar PERM numbers to 2007.

2009 to mid 2010

There is a dip in PERM certifications for this period. After July 2010 the numbers ramp up considerably.


With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019.

However, that sort of movement is likely to trigger reverse porting to EB3 by EB2-I. That is going to be far more messy than the situation seen with China, both because the disparity between EB2/EB3 demand is much greater and also due to the much larger overall demand. Once reverse porting starts, it will halt decent movement in EB3-I completely.

That assumes good SO within EB3. There's still something of a disparity between EB3-ROW Inventory numbers and the number of actual approvals which remains a concern.

The other factor that occurs to me is one of timing of forward movement of Cut Off Dates.

Currently, it seems to be taking 7-8 months for a new I-485 to be approved from submission. The majority of EB3-I movement generally occurs in the last quarter of the FY when the amount of SO can be assessed.

To ensure that sufficient cases are available to be approved, I think CO is going to have to be fairly aggressive in setting the EB3-I Filing Date at the beginning of FY2018 AND USCIS need to accept it.

Otherwise, there is the risk that visas could be available at the end of the FY without a sufficient number of cases in a position to use them. If USCIS don't accept Filing Dates, CO would be a brave man to advance the Final Action Date sufficiently early (the only other alternative) to have sufficient cases ready for approval. That would probably lead to situation of more demand than available visas at that point of time. I'm not convinced he would follow this course of action, particularly if he sees any uptick in EB3-ROW demand.

I accept the above might be a complete load of ill thought out rubbish, but perhaps it can be a starting point for those that wish to discuss the issue.

[Spectator]

Spec,

Thanks for the comprehensive details/calculations.

Question to you/Spec, Q and other gurus.. I have EB2 Priority date of Early 2010 and I have EADs for me and my wife (as we filed for 485 Stage in 2012). My wife has EB3 priority date of late 2007 (as you know EB3 was never current so no 485 filed). The way things are going, it seems EB3 should be current sometime in 2018. Couple of questions -


1.Whenever EB3 dates are current, I don't think we need to file for 485 stage again. We just have to let them know that our 485 is already pending with EB2 (with Souse/my priority date of Early 2010). Now my question is - Is there any form that we need to fill. When the dates become current for EB3, how would they adjust/link this that our EB2 485 is already pending, they need to link/adjust my 485 file with EB3 priority date (with my wife's EB3 date). What's the process for that.
2.Once I get to know the process for my question 1, I believe I have to let them know whenever Filing dates are current, right (I don't think we need to wait for Final Action Dates to be current). Am I right on this?

Please advise, thanks for the help in advance.

Hope21,

I suggest you read the USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 7 – Adjustment of Status, Chapter 7 – Transfer of Underlying Basis which provides information pertinent to this situation.

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/H...-Chapter7.html

From a quick read, you'll have to make a request in writing to USCIS and the request cannot be made until a visa is immediately available (i.e. the PD is current for the new basis). The policy doesn't make any mention or differentiation between Filing Dates and Final Action Dates.

[AC_1980]

sorry for off topic question, our EAD/AP expires second week of dec 2017, we are planning to apply for renewal ourselves, have done that last 2 times. lawyer tells me that I can now apply for EAD/AP renewal 180 days in advance. I remember that used to be 120 days in advance. did that recently change?

[hope21]

Thanks a lot Spec, appreciate it.

Hope21,

I suggest you read the USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 7 – Adjustment of Status, Chapter 7 – Transfer of Underlying Basis which provides information pertinent to this situation.

https://www.uscis.gov/policymanual/H...-Chapter7.html

From a quick read, you'll have to make a request in writing to USCIS and the request cannot be made until a visa is immediately available (i.e. the PD is current for the new basis). The policy doesn't make any mention or differentiation between Filing Dates and Final Action Dates.

[AC_1980]

I would deeply appreciate if someone can weigh in on my post above. Looking to renew EAD and AP that expire mid dec 2017, we are in EB2 (c9 category for EAD).
1. Can we send in renewal for EAD 180 days in advance?
2. does the same apply to AP as well (180 days in advance)?
thank you