EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[Nishant_imt]

Good Morning folks.
I am in kind of a bind right now regarding my job situation. I am looking to make certain decisions based on an educated estimate as to when my date would be current. I have been following this blog sonce 2010, but never really understood the calculations in depth. My priority date is 4/3/2009 under EB2I and due to a administrative error, i didn't get my greencard 3 years ago, when my date became current. And now, i really don't see it getting current until next year based on discussions on this thread. Is there a chance that my date would be current by first quarter of 2018?

[Spectator]

Good Morning folks.
I am in kind of a bind right now regarding my job situation. I am looking to make certain decisions based on an educated estimate as to when my date would be current. I have been following this blog sonce 2010, but never really understood the calculations in depth. My priority date is 4/3/2009 under EB2I and due to a administrative error, i didn't get my greencard 3 years ago, when my date became current. And now, i really don't see it getting current until next year based on discussions on this thread. Is there a chance that my date would be current by first quarter of 2018?

Nishant_imt,

Unfortunately, it's hard to see your PD of April 3, 2009 becoming current for FAD in the first quarter of FY2018.

Using the January 2017 Inventory (because I believe that better represents the true numbers for 2008 and 2009 and gives the lowest number required) there are around 2.4k visas in 2009 needed to cover your PD. If the FAD reached 01NOV08 in FY2017, then a further 1.2k would be required for remaining 2008 PD cases - it doesn't seem possible that CO will make 3.6k visas available to EB2-I in the first quarter of FY2018.

That would be my fairly simplistic view.

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks much Spec... you are awesome as always. When do you think there is a possibility of my date getting current... most optimistic and fairly pessimistic estimate.

Nishant_imt,

Unfortunately, it's hard to see your PD of April 3, 2009 becoming current for FAD in the first quarter of FY2018.

Using the January 2017 Inventory (because I believe that better represents the true numbers for 2008 and 2009 and gives the lowest number required) there are around 2.4k visas in 2009 needed to cover your PD. If the FAD reached 01NOV08 in FY2017, then a further 1.2k would be required for remaining 2008 PD cases - it doesn't seem possible that CO will make 3.6k visas available to EB2-I in the first quarter of FY2018.

That would be my fairly simplistic view.

[imdeng]

1Q2018 - No - does not seem likely. Can't explain it any better than Spec already did. There is a chance you may get in by end of the FY - but not in first Q. Optimistic - Summer 2018, Pessimistic - Summer 2019.

Good Morning folks.
I am in kind of a bind right now regarding my job situation. I am looking to make certain decisions based on an educated estimate as to when my date would be current. I have been following this blog sonce 2010, but never really understood the calculations in depth. My priority date is 4/3/2009 under EB2I and due to a administrative error, i didn't get my greencard 3 years ago, when my date became current. And now, i really don't see it getting current until next year based on discussions on this thread. Is there a chance that my date would be current by first quarter of 2018?

[Nishant_imt]

Thanks much imdeng.

1Q2018 - No - does not seem likely. Can't explain it any better than Spec already did. There is a chance you may get in by end of the FY - but not in first Q. Optimistic - Summer 2018, Pessimistic - Summer 2019.

[redsox2009]

DHS Q1 & Q2 report. Source https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat...al-immigration

Looks like there is high demand in EB1 category and EB2 is easing. I'm saying easing since EB2 cutoff date was anticipated sometime in May/June and until now that did not happen, I hope it will not happen unless I'm day dreaming.

Below figures are total AOS and consulate processing.

	Total	Q1	Q2
Family Total	116634	59570	57064
Employment-based	75262	40789	34473
EB1	25443	13532	11911
EB2	25382	14510	10872
EB3	15239	7934	7305
EB4	5206	3464	1742
EB5	3992	1349	2643

[redsox2009]

Also lately I'm seeing more PERM approvals for out of country under EB3 other workers, don't know how this will effect(+ or -).

[Spectator]

DHS Q1 & Q2 report. Source https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-stat...al-immigration

Looks like there is high demand in EB1 category and EB2 is easing. I'm saying easing since EB2 cutoff date was anticipated sometime in May/June and until now that did not happen, I hope it will not happen unless I'm day dreaming.

redsox2009,

I think the higher Q1 figure for EB2 reflects that EB2-WW was retrogressed for the last 2 months of FY2016 and there was a backlog of cases to be approved when FY2017 started. Approval numbers were very high in October.

It seems that will be the case for next year, since CO has already announced that EB2-WW will retrogress in the August 2017 VB.

Hopefully, EB2-WW can make it through FY2018 without retrogression - a pre-requisite for lateral spillover in EB2.

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hi Spec,

Can you help me understand this table better as I am still a novice at this? You said that the approvals were very high for EB2-WW in the beginning of the fiscal year since they retrogressed at the end of last year. That makes perfect sense and confirms the high EB2 approvals.

It also shows in the first 2 quarters, EB3 got some 10k less GCs issued to them than EB2. Considering the backlogged countries got their monthly quota, is it because EB3-WW demand is low? I don't want to think it has more to do with them loving EB2 more than EB3 because of which they processed more GCs for EB2.

[Spectator]

Hi Spec,

Can you help me understand this table better as I am still a novice at this? You said that the approvals were very high for EB2-WW in the beginning of the fiscal year since they retrogressed at the end of last year. That makes perfect sense and confirms the high EB2 approvals.

It also shows in the first 2 quarters, EB3 got some 10k less GCs issued to them than EB2. Considering the backlogged countries got their monthly quota, is it because EB3-WW demand is low? I don't want to think it has more to do with them loving EB2 more than EB3 because of which they processed more GCs for EB2.

EB3Iwaiting,

I'm not sure anyone can answer that question.

Some random thoughts that went through my mind.

a) Countries in both EB1 and EB2 that are normally current, retrogressed for the final 2 months of FY2016. That's not the case for EB3, so it probably isn't surprising that EB1 and EB2 saw higher Q1 approvals than EB3.

b) CO has a cap of 27% of the EB total per quarter (37,800). If approvals are higher in some categories, they may need to be lower in others to stay within the limit. CO overshot that in Q1 (40.8k vs 37.8k). By the end of Q2, CO is closer to the expected number (75.3k vs 75.6k).

c) EB3 Q1 and Q2 approvals are roughly similar for Q1 and Q2, so maybe that is what it is.

d) I'm always slightly wary of USCIS figures, especially when they relate to Consular Processing. DOS control the visa allocations in total and the Consular approvals process entirely. EB3 is much more affected by Consular approvals. I'm sure they are probably close, but USCIS figures never match the official DOS statistics.

e) Leaving aside CP, I'm still a bit baffled by EB3-ROW approvals for the YTD, since the USCIS I-485 Inventory has increased by around 6k in FY2017. It started at 11.1k in the October 2016 Inventory Report and has been shown at over 17k in both the January and April 2017 Inventory Reports. Does that suggest slower processing of EB3 AOS cases during the first half of FY2017? I don't know. The fact that CO has started to move EB3-I forward at a rapid rate suggests that it really is a low demand.

I'll stop rambling at this point and reiterate that I really don't have a clue.

[eb3waiting]

My priority date is 05/16/2006 EB3 India, is there any chance it becomes current in the next few months?

[Altima]

My priority date is Nov 22, 2008 in EB2 I.

Would there be another retrogression in EB2I? When can I expect my date to be current please?

[EB3Iwaiting]

Thanks Spec,

For trying to find a method to this madness. The increase in EB3ROW demand is baffling but don't you think part of it is due to the slower approvals in EB3? EB3 got some 5k less approvals in the first 2 quarters combined (considering 20k for the first 2 quarters). If the backlogged countries have gotten their monthly quota and we consider those 5k to all go to EB3ROW, then the EB3ROW pending inventory comes closer to what it was in Oct 2016, right?

You do raise an important point with the quarterly allocations. EB1 and EB2 seem to be over allocated in the first 2 quarters and if CO were to keep them within their annual quotas, their approvals should slow down. The reverse should happen to EB3. That does point to a pretty good SO for EB3I provided EB3ROW demand remains steady. That will probably not be the case but SO to EB3I should still be decent.

But I would be cautious since EB3 has not been getting their fair share of annual GCs for a while now. EB3ROWs as well as EB3Is have paid the price.

[anuprab]

Thanks Spec,

For trying to find a method to this madness. The increase in EB3ROW demand is baffling but don't you think part of it is due to the slower approvals in EB3? EB3 got some 5k less approvals in the first 2 quarters combined (considering 20k for the first 2 quarters). If the backlogged countries have gotten their monthly quota and we consider those 5k to all go to EB3ROW, then the EB3ROW pending inventory comes closer to what it was in Oct 2016, right?

You do raise an important point with the quarterly allocations. EB1 and EB2 seem to be over allocated in the first 2 quarters and if CO were to keep them within their annual quotas, their approvals should slow down. The reverse should happen to EB3. That does point to a pretty good SO for EB3I provided EB3ROW demand remains steady. That will probably not be the case but SO to EB3I should still be decent.

But I would be cautious since EB3 has not been getting their fair share of annual GCs for a while now. EB3ROWs as well as EB3Is have paid the price.

EB3Iwaiting, what is your guesstimate for SO for EB3I and then take away another 2.5k for COs favoritism to other EB categories? What are we looking at after taking into all these factors? trying to gauge where EB3I will be by end of this fiscal.

[HarepathekaIntezar]

My priority date is 05/16/2006 EB3 India, is there any chance it becomes current in the next few months?

YES! You will be current in the next few months, if not next month itself!!

[Spectator]

May 2017 Consular Processing Figures

DOS have published the figures for May 2017 https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...issuances.html

Here's the analysis of the Employment Based Classes.

May 2017 Consular Processing - Employment Classes
Class -- China -- India -- Mexico -- Philippines ---- ROW --- Total
EB1 ------- 99 ------ 6 ------- 4 ------------ 0 ---- 149 ----- 258
EB2 ------- 12 ------ 7 ------- 2 ----------- 27 ---- 212 ----- 260
EB3 ------- 35 ----- 10 ------ 29 ---------- 272 ---- 256 ----- 602
EB4 -------- 4 ----- 26 ------- 0 ------------ 5 ---- 117 ----- 152
EB5 ------ 641 ----- 18 ------- 0 ------------ 0 ----- 22 ----- 681

Total ---- 791 ----- 67 ------ 35 ---------- 304 ---- 756 --- 1,953

[Jagan01]

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...gust-2017.html

EB2I is at 22JUL08
EB3I is at 15JUL06

Also important to note, EB2ROW has a cutoff date of 01APR15 and EB3ROW is C.

[itsmusa]

With this speed of Eb2I, I guess, my EB2 PD of Mar'09 would take another couple of years!

[Jagan01]

With this speed of Eb2I, I guess, my EB2 PD of Mar'09 would take another couple of years!

Things might improve next year. EB3I might just move rapidly to match EB2I date and then porting would stop. Hopefully we dont have to port to EB3I...

Question for Gurus, Would porting from EB2I to EB3I make sense for 2010 PDs ?

I think that the 27 month OPT is making ROW people to file GC late. Generallly they would be changing jobs in 2 years and hence when their PERM is filed in the next company they are eligible for EB2. As a result, EB2ROW fillings will keep increasing. I kind of feel that EB3ROW inventory will keep shrinking and that means good SO to EB3I in the coming years.

With EB3I inventory being very small after Aug 2007, don't you think that 2010 PDs have better chance in EB3I instead of EB2I ?

[amulchandra]

Finally I will be current on August first. PD July 12 2006. I hope I will get my GC soon. Extremely anxious now. Waiting for RFE..

[gcq]

Finally I will be current on August first. PD July 12 2006. I hope I will get my GC soon. Extremely anxious now. Waiting for RFE..

Congrats amulchandra, happy to see that !

[amulchandra]

Congrats amulchandra, happy to see that !

Thank you. But I am still waiting for my RFE. I hope I get it before August 1st so that I can respond on time.

[Spectator]

Things might improve next year. EB3I might just move rapidly to match EB2I date and then porting would stop. Hopefully we dont have to port to EB3I...

Question for Gurus, Would porting from EB2I to EB3I make sense for 2010 PDs ?

I think that the 27 month OPT is making ROW people to file GC late. Generallly they would be changing jobs in 2 years and hence when their PERM is filed in the next company they are eligible for EB2. As a result, EB2ROW fillings will keep increasing. I kind of feel that EB3ROW inventory will keep shrinking and that means good SO to EB3I in the coming years.

With EB3I inventory being very small after Aug 2007, don't you think that 2010 PDs have better chance in EB3I instead of EB2I ?

Jagan,

I'll preface this post by saying that speculation about EB3 is likely to make me look very foolish over the passage of time.

Even trying to predict EB3-I is massively hampered by the lack of clarity beyond 2006, compounded by the effect porting / abandonment has had on the numbers.

Remainder of FY2017

If a further 2k SO is made available in September, the Cut Off Date might move to the end of 2006.

2007

For 2007, it's worth noting that only around 75% of cases with a PD of Jan-July 2007 had the PERM certified by the end of July 2007.
For 2007 as a whole, slightly under 40% of PERM cases had been certified by the end of July 2007.
The above can never have filed an I-485 under EB3, since the dates have never been current since July 2007.
Another factor is that there may be a significant number of spouses yet to file I-485 for those cases that have survived and are still in EB3. Most children are likely to be US citizens.

The current USCIS Inventory shows about 2k for Jan-July 2007. Taking the above into account, maybe the total for EB3-I for all of 2007 is nearer 6k.

2008

2008 has similar PERM numbers to 2007.

2009 to mid 2010

There is a dip in PERM certifications for this period. After July 2010 the numbers ramp up considerably.


With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019.

However, that sort of movement is likely to trigger reverse porting to EB3 by EB2-I. That is going to be far more messy than the situation seen with China, both because the disparity between EB2/EB3 demand is much greater and also due to the much larger overall demand. Once reverse porting starts, it will halt decent movement in EB3-I completely.

That assumes good SO within EB3. There's still something of a disparity between EB3-ROW Inventory numbers and the number of actual approvals which remains a concern.

The other factor that occurs to me is one of timing of forward movement of Cut Off Dates.

Currently, it seems to be taking 7-8 months for a new I-485 to be approved from submission. The majority of EB3-I movement generally occurs in the last quarter of the FY when the amount of SO can be assessed.

To ensure that sufficient cases are available to be approved, I think CO is going to have to be fairly aggressive in setting the EB3-I Filing Date at the beginning of FY2018 AND USCIS need to accept it.

Otherwise, there is the risk that visas could be available at the end of the FY without a sufficient number of cases in a position to use them. If USCIS don't accept Filing Dates, CO would be a brave man to advance the Final Action Date sufficiently early (the only other alternative) to have sufficient cases ready for approval. That would probably lead to situation of more demand than available visas at that point of time. I'm not convinced he would follow this course of action, particularly if he sees any uptick in EB3-ROW demand.

I accept the above might be a complete load of ill thought out rubbish, but perhaps it can be a starting point for those that wish to discuss the issue.

[gcvijay]

Jagan,

I'll preface this post by saying that speculation about EB3 is likely to make me look very foolish over the passage of time.

Even trying to predict EB3-I is massively hampered by the lack of clarity beyond 2006, compounded by the effect porting / abandonment has had on the numbers.

Remainder of FY2017

If a further 2k SO is made available in September, the Cut Off Date might move to the end of 2006.

2007

For 2007, it's worth noting that only around 75% of cases with a PD of Jan-July 2007 had the PERM certified by the end of July 2007.
For 2007 as a whole, slightly under 40% of PERM cases had been certified by the end of July 2007.
The above can never have filed an I-485 under EB3, since the dates have never been current since July 2007.
Another factor is that there may be a significant number of spouses yet to file I-485 for those cases that have survived and are still in EB3. Most children are likely to be US citizens.

The current USCIS Inventory shows about 2k for Jan-July 2007. Taking the above into account, maybe the total for EB3-I for all of 2007 is nearer 6k.

2008

2008 has similar PERM numbers to 2007.

2009 to mid 2010

There is a dip in PERM certifications for this period. After July 2010 the numbers ramp up considerably.


With very good SOFAD (9k), EB3-I might be able to move as much as 18 months in a FY. That would mean mid 2008 by the end of FY2018 and somewhere in 2010 by the end of FY2019.

However, that sort of movement is likely to trigger reverse porting to EB3 by EB2-I. That is going to be far more messy than the situation seen with China, both because the disparity between EB2/EB3 demand is much greater and also due to the much larger overall demand. Once reverse porting starts, it will halt decent movement in EB3-I completely.

That assumes good SO within EB3. There's still something of a disparity between EB3-ROW Inventory numbers and the number of actual approvals which remains a concern.

The other factor that occurs to me is one of timing of forward movement of Cut Off Dates.

Currently, it seems to be taking 7-8 months for a new I-485 to be approved from submission. The majority of EB3-I movement generally occurs in the last quarter of the FY when the amount of SO can be assessed.

To ensure that sufficient cases are available to be approved, I think CO is going to have to be fairly aggressive in setting the EB3-I Filing Date at the beginning of FY2018 AND USCIS need to accept it.

Otherwise, there is the risk that visas could be available at the end of the FY without a sufficient number of cases in a position to use them. If USCIS don't accept Filing Dates, CO would be a brave man to advance the Final Action Date sufficiently early (the only other alternative) to have sufficient cases ready for approval. That would probably lead to situation of more demand than available visas at that point of time. I'm not convinced he would follow this course of action, particularly if he sees any uptick in EB3-ROW demand.

I accept the above might be a complete load of ill thought out rubbish, but perhaps it can be a starting point for those that wish to discuss the issue.

Hi Spec

Thanks for all the help you are offering to the Immigrant community and in general Indian Immigrant Community. I have few questions regarding my case

1) my priority date is July 2nd 2009 and I ported from EB3 to EB2 to my current company filing under EB2. Assuming if EB3 becomes current before Eb2 for my date. Can i join the company who filed under EB3? Does priority date porting makes the EB3 petition priority date\i-140 invalid.

2) What are the chances of Filing Date for EB2 moving to a better date?

3) Do you recommend my current employer filing a EB3 petition and port my July 2nd 2009 priority date from EB2 to EB3?

Appreciate all your response. Many guys may be in the same boat like me and have these questions. Your answers will help me and many others who are confused with the EB2\EB3 priority date problems.

Thanks
VJ

[Spectator]

Hi Spec

Thanks for all the help you are offering to the Immigrant community and in general Indian Immigrant Community. I have few questions regarding my case

1) my priority date is July 2nd 2009 and I ported from EB3 to EB2 to my current company filing under EB2. Assuming if EB3 becomes current before Eb2 for my date. Can i join the company who filed under EB3? Does priority date porting makes the EB3 petition priority date\i-140 invalid.

2) What are the chances of Filing Date for EB2 moving to a better date?

3) Do you recommend my current employer filing a EB3 petition and port my July 2nd 2009 priority date from EB2 to EB3?

Appreciate all your response. Many guys may be in the same boat like me and have these questions. Your answers will help me and many others who are confused with the EB2\EB3 priority date problems.

Thanks
VJ

VJ,

Thanks for the kind words.

Please understand that I see my comments as "thinking out loud" and nothing more; I don't categorize it as a prediction. Please read it as such. There is simply not enough data for EB3 to know what will happen and when.

Having said that, I don't see a bright future for EB2-I in the medium term without significant changes. EB5 won't give any spillover for possibly at least 10 years. EB4 probably won't for a few years until SIJ cases work through the system. EB1, as it is, will become gradually more retrogressed for EB1-India and therefore EB1-China. I fully expect it to retrogress in the April 2018 VB next year. That would only leave the possibility of lateral SO from EB2-WW. I'm not sure how much, or how reliable that might be in the future. I sincerely hope i am wrong in that assessment. If history is a guide, PERM processing times will increase at some point which would lead to more SO for one year.

To answer your questions (to the best of my ability):

1) If the I-140 remains valid, then it would be possible. When the PD became current, you would need to inform USCIS of your wish to interfile your I-485 to the EB3 I-140 case. Porting does not invalidate the previous I-140.

2) See discussion above. I'm not sure there's any great need to move it forward greatly from the present 01FEB09, but I don't know what is in CO's mind for October.

3) It's certainly possible to get a new EB3 I-140 approved with your current Company. Assuming your EB2 I-140 is with this Company, you should be able to use your existing PERM as the basis for it. You couldn't ask USCIS to interfile your I-485 to it until the PD became current under EB3.

Although the translations can be a bit perilous, the Chinese sites have quite a lot of information and experience about the process.

I'm not going to recommend anything either way, particularly based on my speculation. I'd find it difficult if I was in the same situation.

Good luck.