EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[EB3Iwaiting]

Experts any affect on GC with 28% reduction on DOS budget ?
Will it help EB2,EB3-I ?
http://www.cnn.com/2017/03/16/politi...inkId=35543838

It will lead to 28% more mis-allocation of GCs.

[anuprab]

It will lead to 28% more mis-allocation of GCs.

right said..beyond frustrating to see year after year EB3I being denied their righfull SO quota. YTEleven's chart would have been true had the CO decided not to $%^& this category up royally.

[bourne_ny]

Hello Experts,

I have a question based on the data below which is from the Annual reports from 2008 to 2016.

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...l-reports.html

Year EB1 EB2 EB3 Total (EB1 + EB2 +EB3) Total (EB2 + EB3)
2008 5,326 14,806 3,745 23,877 18,551
2009 6,672 10,106 2,304 19,082 12,410
2010 6,741 19,961 3,036 29,738 22,997
2011 4,563 23,997 4,002 32,562 27,999
2012 9,506 19,726 2,804 32,036 22,530
2013 9,640 17,193 7,816 34,649 25,009
2014 12,978 23,527 3,526 40,031 27,053
2015 12,253 7,235 7,026 26,514 14,261
2016 10,985 3,930 4,617 19,532 8,547

Avg(08-16) 8,740 15,609 4,320 28,669 19,929
Avg(08-14) 8,350 19,085 3,915 31,350 23,000

I don’t understand the huge drop in spill overs towards EB2 in 2015 (7,235) and 2016 (3,930). In the years before 2015 which I guess were also heavy porting years (some if not all), EB2 averaged around 19,000 (2008 to 2014 reaching as high as almost 24000 in 2011 and 2014) with the minimum in 2009 (10,106).

I see the numbers for EB1 have gone up starting 2012 but not as much. Total for all 3 categories in 2016 is 19,532 (lowest since 2009 when it was 19,082 but that could be becauseEB1 numbers for 2009 are low as well: 6,672). The total for EB2 + EB3 in 2016 is actually the lowest: 8,547 (lowest since 2009 when it was 12,410). Not sure since I only looked at India numbers so it could probably well be due to the high demand from other countries but is this a new trend or will we fall back to higher spillovers for EB2 or EB3, the two most retrogressed categories? If this is the new trend what’s the reason for such a steep drop in EB2 numbers as I’m not sure if porting is the reason?

EB2 + EB3 are at the lowest since 2009, EB1 for 2016 (10,985) has gone up but not in huge numbers, it was 9,640 in 2013.

Please feel free to correct anything that is wrong, I’m just trying to learn and might be mistaken. I understand all the above numbers are higher than the maximum allocation limit of 2800 for EB2 and EB3. I was just wondering because the numbers for EB1 have not gone up by much since 2012(9,506) but the spillover was still pretty large for EB2 from 2012 to 2014 and very small in 2016

Attachment 1143

[Jonty Rhodes]

It will lead to 28% more mis-allocation of GCs.

2 things.

1. This budget will never pass in Senate as it is. Either it would not be touched at all or it would end up having significant changes before it passes and would look completely different when it comes out. Happened with pretty much all the budgets proposed in the past too over last many decades.

2. To mis-allocate green cards, they don't need to have a lean budget and be short of funds or staff. They are mis-allocating it even when they don't have any budget issue being fully staffed and funded. They are competently incompetent.

[qesehmk]

There are two explanations at a high level 1) The improving economy and 2) Systemic discrimination faced by EB-I.

1) The economy became better and better and increased demand across the board including ROW demand. Given how spillovers are entirely dependent on ROW - no wonder EB2/3 are affected. EB5 hasn't helped nor EB4 religious folks. They are coming in droves and so no spillovers.

2) Systemic discrimination - this is a very nuanced point. I have been analyzing GC allocation since 2005. In my observation DoS has a visceral feeling against allocating any GC visas to Indians. They will find every excuse to divert visas to other countries. First they simply used to not give out visas. When there was a huge uproar over this and in 2003 visas were recaptured via a bill ... they started allocating visas by conveniently applying a wrong interpretation of visa allocation (fall down rather than across) interpretation. When that was declared illegal .... for a few years they had to allocated 20-30K visas to EB2I which came to a halt when they started clearing other countries backlogs - first in 485 then in 140 and then at labor level. In last few years we are seeing them allocating EB visas to FB categories under the pretense that 7% rule is across EB and FB categories.

One can argue my arguments here and there ... and that's fine ... what one can't argue is the fact that Indians are the most discriminated people in green card allocation. Just because you were born in India makes you the lowlife of green card allocation.

Hello Experts,

I have a question based on the data below which is from the Annual reports from 2008 to 2016.

https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...l-reports.html

Year EB1 EB2 EB3 Total (EB1 + EB2 +EB3) Total (EB2 + EB3)
2008 5,326 14,806 3,745 23,877 18,551
2009 6,672 10,106 2,304 19,082 12,410
2010 6,741 19,961 3,036 29,738 22,997
2011 4,563 23,997 4,002 32,562 27,999
2012 9,506 19,726 2,804 32,036 22,530
2013 9,640 17,193 7,816 34,649 25,009
2014 12,978 23,527 3,526 40,031 27,053
2015 12,253 7,235 7,026 26,514 14,261
2016 10,985 3,930 4,617 19,532 8,547

Avg(08-16) 8,740 15,609 4,320 28,669 19,929
Avg(08-14) 8,350 19,085 3,915 31,350 23,000

I don’t understand the huge drop in spill overs towards EB2 in 2015 (7,235) and 2016 (3,930). In the years before 2015 which I guess were also heavy porting years (some if not all), EB2 averaged around 19,000 (2008 to 2014 reaching as high as almost 24000 in 2011 and 2014) with the minimum in 2009 (10,106).

I see the numbers for EB1 have gone up starting 2012 but not as much. Total for all 3 categories in 2016 is 19,532 (lowest since 2009 when it was 19,082 but that could be becauseEB1 numbers for 2009 are low as well: 6,672). The total for EB2 + EB3 in 2016 is actually the lowest: 8,547 (lowest since 2009 when it was 12,410). Not sure since I only looked at India numbers so it could probably well be due to the high demand from other countries but is this a new trend or will we fall back to higher spillovers for EB2 or EB3, the two most retrogressed categories? If this is the new trend what’s the reason for such a steep drop in EB2 numbers as I’m not sure if porting is the reason?

EB2 + EB3 are at the lowest since 2009, EB1 for 2016 (10,985) has gone up but not in huge numbers, it was 9,640 in 2013.

Please feel free to correct anything that is wrong, I’m just trying to learn and might be mistaken. I understand all the above numbers are higher than the maximum allocation limit of 2800 for EB2 and EB3. I was just wondering because the numbers for EB1 have not gone up by much since 2012(9,506) but the spillover was still pretty large for EB2 from 2012 to 2014 and very small in 2016

Attachment 1143

[amulchandra]

Hi Q/spec and other gurus here,

Any idea when EB3 India might reach 2006? If USCIS and DOS did not screw up the allocation it would have been cleared by this time. Given this incompetence and past trends can you guys provide some insights? Really appreciate your thoughts. This has been a very long frustrating process and now I am becoming restless.

Best Regards
Amulchandra

[eb2visa]

https://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/TM/20...-JR-031617.pdf

Check this. Are there any allocation errors going on because of the new system rolled out in May 2013? See the last section in page 3 to page 4.

There are two explanations at a high level 1) The improving economy and 2) Systemic discrimination faced by EB-I.

1) The economy became better and better and increased demand across the board including ROW demand. Given how spillovers are entirely dependent on ROW - no wonder EB2/3 are affected. EB5 hasn't helped nor EB4 religious folks. They are coming in droves and so no spillovers.

2) Systemic discrimination - this is a very nuanced point. I have been analyzing GC allocation since 2005. In my observation DoS has a visceral feeling against allocating any GC visas to Indians. They will find every excuse to divert visas to other countries. First they simply used to not give out visas. When there was a huge uproar over this and in 2003 visas were recaptured via a bill ... they started allocating visas by conveniently applying a wrong interpretation of visa allocation (fall down rather than across) interpretation. When that was declared illegal .... for a few years they had to allocated 20-30K visas to EB2I which came to a halt when they started clearing other countries backlogs - first in 485 then in 140 and then at labor level. In last few years we are seeing them allocating EB visas to FB categories under the pretense that 7% rule is across EB and FB categories.

One can argue my arguments here and there ... and that's fine ... what one can't argue is the fact that Indians are the most discriminated people in green card allocation. Just because you were born in India makes you the lowlife of green card allocation.

[bvsamrat]

Thanks Q.
I wonder if this exploitation starts right from the PERM from the employer side and attorney combined.
I think many of the MS guys are offered EB3 at PERM stage itself so that they are stuck in place for decades.
How many new Eb3I would be in the pipeline with PDs' of 2016? despite knowing well that it would take decades to get a result?

There are two explanations at a high level 1) The improving economy and 2) Systemic discrimination faced by EB-I.

1) The economy became better and better and increased demand across the board including ROW demand. Given how spillovers are entirely dependent on ROW - no wonder EB2/3 are affected. EB5 hasn't helped nor EB4 religious folks. They are coming in droves and so no spillovers.

2) Systemic discrimination - this is a very nuanced point. I have been analyzing GC allocation since 2005. In my observation DoS has a visceral feeling against allocating any GC visas to Indians. They will find every excuse to divert visas to other countries. First they simply used to not give out visas. When there was a huge uproar over this and in 2003 visas were recaptured via a bill ... they started allocating visas by conveniently applying a wrong interpretation of visa allocation (fall down rather than across) interpretation. When that was declared illegal .... for a few years they had to allocated 20-30K visas to EB2I which came to a halt when they started clearing other countries backlogs - first in 485 then in 140 and then at labor level. In last few years we are seeing them allocating EB visas to FB categories under the pretense that 7% rule is across EB and FB categories.

One can argue my arguments here and there ... and that's fine ... what one can't argue is the fact that Indians are the most discriminated people in green card allocation. Just because you were born in India makes you the lowlife of green card allocation.

[qesehmk]

BVSamrat, As you observed correctly indeed those filing today in EB3 are in for a very long wait unless something fundamentally changes.

However it is not just EB3 - same is true for EB2 today. Both are severely backlogged for EB-I.

Thanks Q.
I wonder if this exploitation starts right from the PERM from the employer side and attorney combined.
I think many of the MS guys are offered EB3 at PERM stage itself so that they are stuck in place for decades.
How many new Eb3I would be in the pipeline with PDs' of 2016? despite knowing well that it would take decades to get a result?

[bvsamrat]

Q. I just wanted to overview the big picture which is sometimes missed. Select horses for the courses
If it is for jobs and settling in Us, then the route through MS is quite long and uncertain as it has been since last 10 years.
I am not sure if campus recruitment is good and effective.
One of my known friends from IIT got admission in a top US PHD college in 2006, but left after 1 year once he saw the situation. Went back joined an IT firm and came back soon to settle in USA.

BVSamrat, As you observed correctly indeed those filing today in EB3 are in for a very long wait unless something fundamentally changes.

However it is not just EB3 - same is true for EB2 today. Both are severely backlogged for EB-I.

[gcq]

I was looking at april visa bulletin.
EB3-I moved only 2 days from 22-MAR-05 to 24-MAR-05. However EB3 ROW is at 15FEB17.

Doesn't it mean that EB3-ROW is going to be current in not so distant future ?
March 2017 bulletin

April 2017 bulletin

[EB3Iwaiting]

I was looking at april visa bulletin.
EB3-I moved only 2 days from 22-MAR-05 to 24-MAR-05. However EB3 ROW is at 15FEB17.

Doesn't it mean that EB3-ROW is going to be current in not so distant future ?
March 2017 bulletin

April 2017 bulletin

Technically, EB3ROW is Current and has been current for a while considering the PERM processing time. EB2ROW has a much higher pending inventory. Considering EB2 will not get any vertical SO, it is still at "C" while EB3ROW is not. It is CO's conservative nature, that is all which eventually leads to mis-allocation of visas. EB3s have always paid the highest price, including EB3ROW.

[qesehmk]

I must say he is a wise guy!

Q. I just wanted to overview the big picture which is sometimes missed. Select horses for the courses
If it is for jobs and settling in Us, then the route through MS is quite long and uncertain as it has been since last 10 years.
I am not sure if campus recruitment is good and effective.
One of my known friends from IIT got admission in a top US PHD college in 2006, but left after 1 year once he saw the situation. Went back joined an IT firm and came back soon to settle in USA.

[richie.rich]

Hello,

I have been following this forum for long and you guys are doing amazing job by helping others. Special thanks to those who are greened already and still answering the questions to the needy.

I am EB2-I and my PD is Sep 15, 2010. Can anyone calculate on my Dates for Filling or Final Action Dates to be current?

It's been almost a decade I went to India. I always thought that I will visit India once greened. I know that sounds crazy, but still waiting!!!

[EB3Iwaiting]

Hello,

I have been following this forum for long and you guys are doing amazing job by helping others. Special thanks to those who are greened already and still answering the questions to the needy.

I am EB2-I and my PD is Sep 15, 2010. Can anyone calculate on my Dates for Filling or Final Action Dates to be current?

It's been almost a decade I went to India. I always thought that I will visit India once greened. I know that sounds crazy, but still waiting!!!

If you are only looking to get greened and then go to India, you are probably looking at another decade of waiting. Probably more if CO feels more generous towards EB1.

[tenyearsgone]

If you are only looking to get greened and then go to India, you are probably looking at another decade of waiting. Probably more if CO feels more generous towards EB1.

On a cynical note.. you'll probably go to India within the next 10 years due to a immigration snafu than due to getting your GC. . There's no light at the end of the tunnel unless you can upgrade yourself to EB1.

Ironically .. have you noticed my username??

[Spectator]

CO's remarks to AILA have started being published.

There's not a lot of concrete information on how dates might move (there was no comment about EB2/EB3 India), but CO did give some information about EB1 use by China and India in FY2017.

EB-1 India and China:

Per country limits of 2,800 visas has been reached for both, with EB-1 India using more than 9,000 numbers, and EB-1 China using more than 4,500 numbers. Once the spillover visa numbers from other categories have been used up, Final Action cut-off date "will likely be imposed for both countries at some point this summer."

I suppose it depends on your definition of "summer" and what the worldwide use is compared to last year, but action appears not more than 2 months away at most with that demand pattern.

For reference, EB1-China used 6,711 in FY2016 and EB1-India used 10,985 in FY2016. At the moment, it appears India will use a greater relative % of EB1 visas in FY2017 compared to China at the time "corrective action" is required than was the case in FY2016.


The article can be found here.

[suninphx]

CO's remarks to AILA have started being published.

There's not a lot of concrete information on how dates might move (there was no comment about EB2/EB3 India), but CO did give some information about EB1 use by China and India in FY2017.



I suppose it depends on your definition of "summer" and what the worldwide use is compared to last year, but action appears not more than 2 months away at most with that demand pattern.

For reference, EB1-China used 6,711 in FY2016 and EB1-India used 10,985 in FY2016. At the moment, it appears India will use a greater relative % of EB1 visas in FY2017 compared to China at the time "corrective action" is required than was the case in FY2016.


The article can be found here.

It looks like we will soon have more "International managers' than developers....wow....way to go

[abcx13]

CO's remarks to AILA have started being published.

There's not a lot of concrete information on how dates might move (there was no comment about EB2/EB3 India), but CO did give some information about EB1 use by China and India in FY2017.



I suppose it depends on your definition of "summer" and what the worldwide use is compared to last year, but action appears not more than 2 months away at most with that demand pattern.

For reference, EB1-China used 6,711 in FY2016 and EB1-India used 10,985 in FY2016. At the moment, it appears India will use a greater relative % of EB1 visas in FY2017 compared to China at the time "corrective action" is required than was the case in FY2016.


The article can be found here.

Bet most of the EB1-I usage was EB1-C. Have heard all kinds of stories about how Indian IT companies are making anyone manager.

Ridiculous system - discriminatory for sure but we have also made a total mockery of it.

[iatiam]

Bet most of the EB1-I usage was EB1-C. Have heard all kinds of stories about how Indian IT companies are making anyone manager.

Ridiculous system - discriminatory for sure but we have also made a total mockery of it.

I know two people who happen to be "Multi-national Managers". One guy was working in a shop for 35,000 dollars per year (17 dollar per hour) and the other guy was a manager in a grocery shop. Both got GCs in less than an year. Oh well...

[apsv11]

Is the termination of H-1B premium processing (albeit temporarily for 6 months) expected to have any impact on the availability of visa numbers?

[suninphx]

Bet most of the EB1-I usage was EB1-C. Have heard all kinds of stories about how Indian IT companies are making anyone manager.

Ridiculous system - discriminatory for sure but we have also made a total mockery of it.

I have heard that in some companies same resource reports 4-5 international managers at same time- if we go by org chart 😄😄- very creative... excellent

[smuggymba]

I have heard that in some companies same resource reports 4-5 international managers at same time- if we go by org chart ����- very creative... excellent

Some of this is true but some people who are offshore don't really exist (per companies they left after the applicant got his GC)

I don't get one simple thing - Why doesn't DOL/USCIS get the fact that how can one company need 5K managers every year that too in technology. common sense

[iatiam]

Some of this is true but some people who are offshore don't really exist (per companies they left after the applicant got his GC)

I don't get one simple thing - Why doesn't DOL/USCIS get the fact that how can one company need 5K managers every year that too in technology. common sense

True. Plus EB1A and EB1B are really scrutinized and hard to get; but not EB1C. I know someone with a PhD and several technical papers in cancer research. Apparently his immigration attorneys told that he doesn't have enough credentials to apply for EB1. Sad!

The biggest issue which will come back and bite this country is the decline in students in the universities.
http://indianexpress.com/article/edu...dents-4587412/

As soon as the news gets out that that getting MS and PhD from the US is a waste of time, then the university system will lose millions of dollars of revenue.

Iatiam

[abcx13]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ts-u-s-cinemas