EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

[iatiam]

EB-1 Worldwide: expected to remain current through September 2017.

EB-1 China and India: demand had decreased compared to earlier in the fiscal year. If this reduced level of demand is sustained into the summer, a cut-off date may not have to be imposed until August 2017. Of course, if demand goes back up, a cut-off date could be imposed earlier.

EB-2 and EB-3 China: In the March Visa Bulletin, the EB-3 China Final Action date is 15 months ahead of EB-2 China. This will likely result in downgrades from EB-2 to EB-3, but that is not likely to materialize until April or May. This means that EB-2 won’t be able to move as much for now and the gap between EB-2 and EB-3 will likely remain for the spring. Demand for EB-3 China is starting to increase, but it is not a substantial increase and the monthly usage in this category has been below the targeted number. This means there are some reserved in case EB-3 China demand starts to increase more rapidly.

EB-2 India: There seems to be slightly lower demand for upgrades from EB-3 to EB-2 which allowed for more forward movement than previously expected. The date was also moved forward to try to limit the impact of expiring medical exams. It is hoped that this category will advance at a pace of up to one month at a time for April, May and June. However, if EB-3 upgrades increase once again, movement in this category could slow or stop in the coming months.

EB-3 Worldwide: demand remains relatively low. Movement at a pace of up to three months at a time in this category is still expected through the spring.

EB-3 India: extremely limited forward movement expected.

EB-3 Philippines: Lower demand for EB-1 and EB-2 Philippines has allowed additional numbers to fall down to EB-3 Philippines and this category may advance up to six months at a time for April, May, and June.

EB-5 China: should continue to advance at a rate of only 1 to 2 weeks through the spring.


Source: http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-e...february-2017/

[username1]

I received EAD for only 1 year this time, all other times it was for 2 years. Does anybody else have similar experience? Why would they renew it for 1 year only this time. Is my PD expected to be current in the coming year? Or is there something else going on?
EAD applied 12/23/16 TSC, received approval notice 2/25/17 4th renewal. PD 8/2009, EB2I. My PD is pretty close to imdeng.

[EB3Iwaiting]

http://immigrationgirl.com/what-to-expect-in-the-visa-bulletin-as-of-february-2017/[/url]

EB3ROW demand continues to be low, which is good news for EB3I. Looks like porters have thinned out till 2008 too which is good news for EB2I. The only problem is the vertical SO of EB1-P and EB2-P to EB3-P. As Spec pointed out correctly, more EB3-P numbers essentially mean less ROW quota overall, which could translate to less SO for EB3I.

[iatiam]

EB3ROW demand continues to be low, which is good news for EB3I. Looks like porters have thinned out till 2008 too which is good news for EB2I. The only problem is the vertical SO of EB1-P and EB2-P to EB3-P. As Spec pointed out correctly, more EB3-P numbers essentially mean less ROW quota overall, which could translate to less SO for EB3I.

Overall, this bodes well for EB category. My questions are about EB4 and EB5. With the surge of kids from the south slowing down, can we expect some SO from EB4 this year. CO has indicated forward movement for this category in summer.

Also, the new rules for EB5. If the investment amount is increased, would it provide more SO to EB category? What are the chances of the new rule being implemented. I heard they will publish them for comments in April. Is this true?

Spec, could you please care to comment.

Iatiam

[4WatItsWorth]

Spec or Others who understand this,

EB3 Row is at Dec2016 in March bulletin. Now it is predicted to move forward by another 3 months, which will take it to Feb or Mar2017. For April2017, how is that not practically current? And, how can it move forward another 3 months for the subsequent bulletins? Why do you think the category is not being marked "C"?

[rocketfast]

If approximately 80% of the H1B visas are being given to Indians and around 9% to Chinese, where is the EB2 ROW and EB3 ROW demand getting generated from? It looks like I am missing something very obvious here. Can someone please help me figure out where is approximately 70,000 EB2/3 ROW demand coming from?

[Spectator]

Overall, this bodes well for EB category. My questions are about EB4 and EB5. With the surge of kids from the south slowing down, can we expect some SO from EB4 this year. CO has indicated forward movement for this category in summer.

Also, the new rules for EB5. If the investment amount is increased, would it provide more SO to EB category? What are the chances of the new rule being implemented. I heard they will publish them for comments in April. Is this true?

Spec, could you please care to comment.

Iatiam

Iatiam,

I don't think extra spillover in the short term is likely at all. Any changes take time to propagate and IMO we're talking years, not months to see any changes.

EB4

My understanding is the SIJ process is quite long winded. There's a court process before being able to apply for an I-360.

There is also a substantial backlog of cases (and retrogression), which represent several years of approvals.

During FY2016, 19,475 SIJ I-360 petitions were received (up from 11,500 in FY2015 and 5,776 in FY2014).
During FY2016, 15,101 SIJ I-360 petitions were approved (up from 8,739 in FY2015 and 4,606 in FY2014).

As at the end of FY2016, 8,533 SIJ I-360 petitions were still pending (up from 4,357 in FY2015 and 1,826 in FY2014).

Currently the Countries most affected by SIJ have an EB4 Final Action Date of 15JUL15 (about 20 months) for pending I-485 applications.

Even if the flow from the courts stopped yesterday there appears to be at least 2 1/2 years worth of SIJ cases already in the system.


EB5

Any changes will not be retrospective to I-526 cases that are already pending. There might be a dip in new I-526 petitions initially, but that will probably be offset by a surge of applications before any changes become effective.

The number of existing pending EB5 cases is very large.

As of November 1, 2016, NVC reported 24,629 EB5 cases awaiting Consular Processing, 93% of which were Chinese. EB5-C is currently nearly 3 years retrogressed.

It's currently taking 16 months for USCIS to process an I-526. That's actually significantly down from previous reports.

As at the end of FY2016, there were 20,804 pending I-526 cases. Using the FY2016 approval ratio and historic dependent ratio, that could be demand for another 49.2k visas. The current total known demand could therefore be as high as 73.8k (or slightly over 7 years).

My personal opinion is that a change in the minimum investment from $500k to $1.3M (as I have seen proposed) would likely not produce spillover from EB5. The vast majority of EB5 investors are Chinese and I suspect there are more than enough prepared and able to meet the proposed increased investment amount. At best I think it might lower the amount of retrogression that EB5-C sees in the future.

It's probably academic as far as EB2 is concerned. With increasing retrogression for some Countries within EB1, any spillover from either EB4 or EB5 will be entirely used by EB1.

[iatiam]

Iatiam,
It's probably academic as far as EB2 is concerned. With increasing retrogression for some Countries within EB1, any spillover from either EB4 or EB5 will be entirely used by EB1.

Why did CO then claim that EB1 demand is less. It's been a while since I have seen him use that word. I was hoping to see some SO from EB1 this FY to EB2. If there is no cut-off for EB1I this year, wouldn't that mean SO to EB2.

On similar note, wouldn't reduction in demand from EB2ROW and EB3ROW translate to SO for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

What am I missing?

Iatiam

[Spectator]

Why did CO then claim that EB1 demand is less. It's been a while since I have seen him use that word. I was hoping to see some SO from EB1 this FY to EB2. If there is no cut-off for EB1I this year, wouldn't that mean SO to EB2.

On similar note, wouldn't reduction in demand from EB2ROW and EB3ROW translate to SO for EB2I and EB3I respectively.

What am I missing?

Iatiam

CO didn't say that there wouldn't be a Cut Off Date in EB1.

EB-1 China and India: demand had decreased compared to earlier in the fiscal year. If this reduced level of demand is sustained into the summer, a cut-off date may not have to be imposed until August 2017. Of course, if demand goes back up, a cut-off date could be imposed earlier.

I believe he may be being quite optimistic in that view and that a COD on EB1-IC may be necessary earlier than last year.

The last time CO mentioned EB2-WW (January 2017) he said demand was strong and that EB2-I might not receive more than the per country limit if it continued.

If demand for EB-2 Worldwide remains strong, it is unlikely that EB-2 India will be able to benefit from any unused numbers and may be restricted to its 2,800 per country limit.

Before that, in the December 2016 VB he said:

Second:

Current for the foreseeable future. But, based on the current demand pattern it appears likely that it will be necessary to impose a Worldwide, Mexico, and Philippines Final Action Date no later than July.

That may or may not still be still the case, but it doesn't speak to low demand for EB2-WW either, especially if you consider EB2-WW was retrogressed for 2 months at the end of FY2016 and would have to accommodate 14 months in FY2017 within the numbers available.

Philippines use within their overall 7% limit may well limit the SO available within EB3 to EB3-I. I admit I don't feel I fully understand what's going on in EB3.

[EB3Iwaiting]

I admit I don't feel I fully understand what's going on in EB3.

Spec, can you please elaborate? Would like to pick your brain and know your thought process.

[zenmaster]

I received EAD for only 1 year this time, all other times it was for 2 years. Does anybody else have similar experience? Why would they renew it for 1 year only this time. Is my PD expected to be current in the coming year? Or is there something else going on?
EAD applied 12/23/16 TSC, received approval notice 2/25/17 4th renewal. PD 8/2009, EB2I. My PD is pretty close to imdeng.

Same with me. I got the renewal only for 1 year this time. PD 5/2009.

[srimurthy]

Did everyone read this INA ACT 216:

(e) Every alien, eighteen years of age and over, shall at all times carry with him and have in his personal possession any certificate of alien registration or alien registration receipt card issued to him pursuant to subsection (d). Any alien who fails to comply with the provisions of this subsection shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and shall upon conviction for each offense be fined not to exceed $100 or be imprisoned not more than thirty days, or both.

[self.coach]

Did everyone read this INA ACT 216:

(e) Every alien, eighteen years of age and over, shall at all times carry with him and have in his personal possession any certificate of alien registration or alien registration receipt card issued to him pursuant to subsection (d). Any alien who fails to comply with the provisions of this subsection shall be guilty of a misdemeanor and shall upon conviction for each offense be fined not to exceed $100 or be imprisoned not more than thirty days, or both.

Yes, I did. I believe this has been around for a while, no? This probably means that we must carry GC or i94 or copy of visa at all times. For EAD folks, would the EAD card suffice?

Also do we need to keep original or copy with us?

[imdeng]

Got my EAD yesterday - and it is for 2 years. I have no idea what criteria they are using. Its clearly not PD as people with PD close to mine have received 1 year EAD.

Also - this time they sent an actual approval notice. Before it was just the EAD with a mailer sheet - no separate approval notice.

[kash80]

As I-94 is now electronic, will showing it on a phone suffice?

[EB3Iwaiting]

April VB is out: https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...pril-2017.html

EB2I moved 3 weeks - 22ND JUNE 08

EB3I moved 2 days - 24th March 05

Historic day for EB3I! I have never seen movement by days. Its either no movement or 1 week movement. I guess CO did it cos end of March is densely populated.

[anuprab]

April VB is out: https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...pril-2017.html

EB2I moved 3 weeks - 22ND JUNE 08

EB3I moved 2 days - 24th March 05

Historic day for EB3I! I have never seen movement by days. Its either no movement or 1 week movement. I guess CO did it cos end of March is densely populated.

haha, i dont know to laugh or cry about this..but seriously wtf. he could have kept it at March 22 for another decade and no one waiting in this category would have raised an eyelid! why 2 days??

[Spectator]

haha, i dont know to laugh or cry about this..but seriously wtf. he could have kept it at March 22 for another decade and no one waiting in this category would have raised an eyelid! why 2 days??

As has been mentioned before, over 2/3 of March 2005 EB3-I cases are concentrated in the period March 22 to March 31.

The 2 days covered in the movement (March 22 and March 23 2005) probably contain between 350-400 cases (likely around 17% of all March 2005 cases). That's more than a week of previous movement in March 2005 contained.

The 2 days after that are the most congested. March 24 and March 25 probably contain around 1,000 cases between them (about 46% of March 2005).

It's quite possible the next movement could be only one day, unless it happens at a time when SO can cover the movement.

PS Although it has happened a very, very, very long time ago, this is the first time I have seen a movement to a date that was not either 1, 8, 15 or 22 in the month. I believe the above figures suggest why it has happened.

[maverick23]

As has been mentioned before, over 2/3 of March 2005 EB3-I cases are concentrated in the period March 22 to March 31.

The 2 days covered in the movement (March 22 and March 23 2005) probably contain between 350-400 cases (likely around 17% of all March 2005 cases). That's more than a week of previous movement in March 2005 contained.

The 2 days after that are the most congested. March 24 and March 25 probably contain around 1,000 cases between them (about 46% of March 2005).

It's quite possible the next movement could be only one day, unless it happens at a time when SO can cover the movement.

PS Although it has happened a very, very, very long time ago, this is the first time I have seen a movement to a date that was not either 1, 8, 15 or 22 in the month. I believe the above figures suggest why it has happened.

In the April visa bulletin - EB3 China final action date is ahead of filing date. Why were the Filing dates not moved with the Final Action date?

Shouldn't DOS move the filing date 3 to 6 months in advance of the final action date catching up to complete the pre-adjudication process (the very intent of the dual chart visa bulletin system) ? Or is it a rule that filing dates would only move once a year at the beginning of the fiscal year?

What happens for EB3 India if we're to get some spillover this summer? If dates do move past march 2005 in summer will we see similar to China where the final action date cross the filing date of 01 JUL 05?

Shouldn't the filing date be moved prior ?

[maverick23]

In the April visa bulletin - EB3 China final action date is ahead of filing date. Why were the Filing dates not moved with the Final Action date?

Shouldn't DOS move the filing date 3 to 6 months in advance of the final action date catching up to complete the pre-adjudication process (the very intent of the dual chart visa bulletin system) ? Or is it a rule that filing dates would only move once a year at the beginning of the fiscal year?

What happens for EB3 India if we're to get some spillover this summer? If dates do move past march 2005 in summer will we see similar to China where the final action date cross the filing date of 01 JUL 05?

Shouldn't the filing date be moved prior ?

[anuprab]

As has been mentioned before, over 2/3 of March 2005 EB3-I cases are concentrated in the period March 22 to March 31.

The 2 days covered in the movement (March 22 and March 23 2005) probably contain between 350-400 cases (likely around 17% of all March 2005 cases). That's more than a week of previous movement in March 2005 contained.

The 2 days after that are the most congested. March 24 and March 25 probably contain around 1,000 cases between them (about 46% of March 2005).

It's quite possible the next movement could be only one day, unless it happens at a time when SO can cover the movement.

PS Although it has happened a very, very, very long time ago, this is the first time I have seen a movement to a date that was not either 1, 8, 15 or 22 in the month. I believe the above figures suggest why it has happened.

Thanks Spec and I understand that. But then if there are so many cases around these dates, why aren't mass RFEs being issued? I am seeing some flurry of activity om trackitt for RFEs..

[bookworm]

Quick news for folks waiting for EAD approvals - the 180 day automatic extension works beautifully. Just gone mine done. If you applied for renewal before the rule got into effect then USCIS will send you another receipt notice that explicitly states the 180 day auto-extension. I would imagine that would be helpful for DL extensions - though I haven't tried that yet.

Does anybody have a link or a guide on what to fill in the boxes on the i-9 for reverification? The drop downs are kind of confusing. Appreciate any guidance that the community can offer.

[Spectator]

FY2016-EB Visa Approvals


- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,711 --- 2,837 --- 2,815 ----- 107 -- 7,516 --- 19,986
INDIA ---- 10,985 --- 3,930 --- 4,617 ----- 720 ---- 149 --- 20,401
MEXICO ---- 1,720 --- 1,449 --- 2,058 ----- 765 ----- 57 ---- 6,049
PHIL. ------- 173 --- 1,985 --- 6,579 ----- 164 ----- 16 ---- 8,917
ROW ------ 24,134 -- 28,910 -- 21,471 --- 8,273 -- 2,209 --- 84,997

TOTAL ---- 43,723 -- 39,111 -- 37,540 -- 10,029 -- 9,947 -- 140,350


S. KOREA -- 1,547 --- 5,157 --- 6,153 ----- 514 -----260 --- 13,631


More detail at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8279#post58279

Original Data - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...ort-TableV.pdf

[amulchandra]

FY2016-EB Visa Approvals


- Country --- EB1 ----- EB2 ----- EB3 ----- EB4 ---- EB5 ---- Total
CHINA ----- 6,711 --- 2,837 --- 2,815 ----- 107 -- 7,516 --- 19,986
INDIA ---- 10,985 --- 3,930 --- 4,617 ----- 720 ---- 149 --- 20,401
MEXICO ---- 1,720 --- 1,449 --- 2,058 ----- 765 ----- 57 ---- 6,049
PHIL. ------- 173 --- 1,985 --- 6,579 ----- 164 ----- 16 ---- 8,917
ROW ------ 24,134 -- 28,910 -- 21,471 --- 8,273 -- 2,209 --- 84,997

TOTAL ---- 43,723 -- 39,111 -- 37,540 -- 10,029 -- 9,947 -- 140,350


S. KOREA -- 1,547 --- 5,157 --- 6,153 ----- 514 -----260 --- 13,631


More detail at http://www.qesehmk.org/forums/showth...8279#post58279

Original Data - https://travel.state.gov/content/dam...ort-TableV.pdf

Thank you very much Spec.

I am having a complete melt down looking at EB3 allocation. Will this atrocity being committed by USCIS ever end?

At least EB 3 I would have received 2000 more visas and the current date would have been past 2005 March if they did not over allocate EB1 India. I am completely hopeless. USCIS will never learn form its past mistakes.

[imdeng]

Spec - do you foresee South Korea getting a PD anytime soon? They should be close enough to the 7% limit.

I am amazed that right now EB1/2/3 demand from China might be lower than that from S.Korea.

What they are doing to EB3I is nothing short of shocking! 3K more visas that the category deserved would have gone a very long way in helping people waiting for a long long time.