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Thread: EB2-3 Predictions (Rather Calculations) 2015-2020

  1. #1876
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    Failing to understand that if pending inventory of EB2ROW is higher than EB3ROW, how is EB3ROW not current but EB2ROW is? CO still expecting high EB3ROW to come in? He has been expecting it for the last 1 year.
    yeah not sure why is he expecting demand from EB3RoW to surge and not willing to give the benefit of doubt to heavily backlogged EB3I.....there are still real people waiting in this line although many might have become zombies by now

  2. #1877
    Impressive work by the motel association no doubt.

    When I talk to my desi friends on similar lines of donating money; they're not even willing to donate 5 dollars. Some are not even willing to go to a politicians office which doesn't cost anything. So, people are themselves responsible for their fate. That's where ****'s frustration is coming from - my exp was ok since I didn't ask or expect, I just gave money.

    PS: I have donated around 500 to ** since they're the only one's who are getting off their butt and doing something. Our forum owner even sensors the name of **, so yes they must have rubbed ppl the wrong way, no doubt.



    Quote Originally Posted by Jonty Rhodes View Post
    My friend, I have given up trying to understand and make sense of it. Being a physician, I am not going to qualify for EB1C. I don't have lot of research papers and I am not working in an academic hospital so I don't qualify for EB1A or EB1B. I am either going to keep waiting in EB2 for long period or earn enough money to file under EB5 regional center (half a million) or worst case scenario, move back to India. Current scenario is not going to change until Immigration Reform happens, comprehensive or piecemeal and there is something in it hopefully for backlogged people when it happens.

    On the other hand, I think if our backlogged community wants something done faster, the only way I see it happening is through the way of lobbying. Unfortunately, ** has totally ruined the experience of many like us who could have been potential long term donors for the group. If I am donating to a group, the least I expect is that the group is handling my inquiries appropriately and transparently.

    I recently met my wife's cousin. He was laid off during 2008 recession but had a GC at that time. Instead of starting another job, he started a motel business with his friends. He is reasonably successful at this time and doing well in his business. He told me that AHOA (American Hotel Owners Association) which he is a member of, recently started asking its members to pay $500 per year. It has 15,000 registered members (95% Gujaratis and out of those 95%, 99% are Patels) and more are joining in. That gives them $7.5 million. With all that money, they have now hired a lobbying firm on capitol hill to lobby and get those things done what they want. His personal experience was that if you can write a check, then you can get the access and get things done. He got access to Councilman's and Mayor's cellphone by writing a $5000 check and arranging a fundraiser at his motel where he raised $20,000. He asked me, why don't we all backlogged Indians and Chinese and other backlogged communities do something similar?

    Although, I found nothing new in what he was telling me, I kind of thought about ** at that time and how bad people's experience has been with them. I strongly feel that if some dedicated souls take the initiative to spend time on capitol hill (not **) and come up with a new organization starting something similar, I am sure many backlogged people will make financial contributions as long as the organization remains loyal to its base and remains transparent, and people know what organization is doing with their money. Problem with ** is a problem of trustworthiness. If they would do things differently, many people would contribute.

  3. #1878
    I don't think October Visa bulletin is completely gloom and doom scenario for both EB2I and EB3I. Last year, October bulletin opened with EB3I in March 2004 and EB2I in May 2005. So, we have a solid 1 year progress for EB3I and 1.5 years progress for EB2I on YOY basis.

  4. #1879
    YT, spec ... any of Gurus here...
    CO has said for EB3I the dates will move upto 1 week each time. Now we are on 1st March. When in your opinion will March2005 be cleared.
    It has been a very very long & hard wait.... Things are getting pretty tough

  5. #1880
    Quote Originally Posted by GCwaiting View Post
    YT, spec ... any of Gurus here...
    CO has said for EB3I the dates will move upto 1 week each time. Now we are on 1st March. When in your opinion will March2005 be cleared.
    It has been a very very long & hard wait.... Things are getting pretty tough
    October VB moved 2 weeks for EB3-I. So if we assume a 2 week movement every bulletin, we should be in Aug 2005 by Sep 2017 even with no FA. With FA it should be better.

  6. #1881
    Quote Originally Posted by gcq View Post
    October VB moved 2 weeks for EB3-I. So if we assume a 2 week movement every bulletin, we should be in Aug 2005 by Sep 2017 even with no FA. With FA it should be better.
    --------------------------------------
    Employment Third:
    India: Up to one week.



    The above projections for the Family
    and Employment categories indicate what is likely to
    happen on a monthly basis through January based on current applicant demand patterns."


    November 2016 Visa Bulletin---8th March 2005
    December 2016 Visa Bulletin---15 March 2005
    January 2017 Visa Bulletin-- 22 March 2005
    February 2017 Visa bulletin -- 1 april 2005

    than stop to clear , March 2005

  7. #1882
    gurus - my I-140 was approved (EB1-A) last week, so will file 485 soon...

    have a question - I know the answers to this are conflicted - but I am curious to know what your lawyers have said on this...

    my wife is on h4 and works on the h4-ead... if she (re)enters the US on the H4 but uses the 485ead to work, does he h4 status get invalidated?

  8. #1883
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    Quote Originally Posted by vishnu View Post
    gurus - my I-140 was approved (EB1-A) last week, so will file 485 soon...

    have a question - I know the answers to this are conflicted - but I am curious to know what your lawyers have said on this...

    my wife is on h4 and works on the h4-ead... if she (re)enters the US on the H4 but uses the 485ead to work, does he h4 status get invalidated?
    Once 485EAD is used then H4 would be invalidated. His/Her status would changed to "Adjustee".

    Thanks

  9. #1884
    As someone who waited way too long to do this.. Just do it!

    1. Can i have 2 pending 485 applications one under Employment and one under Family?
    Yes
    2. Can we send the application to selected service centers where I-130 application processing times are faster?
    You file to a lockbox and ASC is geo restricted to where you live.

    3. i-130 or I-485 can i file these in premium processing?
    No
    4. How long would it take for F2A application to be approved? i am currently eligible to file I-485 application as well without any wait.
    5. can i file I-130 and I-485 application at same time?
    Since you are current yes

    Quote Originally Posted by EB2Dec2008 View Post
    Hey Spec/Q

    I am in a peculiar situation and would need your advise on this. I am currently in EB2 - Priority Date Dec'2008. I missed the boat twice and want to take advantage of F2A. My husband has a greencard and would want to file I-130 and 485 under F2A.

    1. Can i have 2 pending 485 applications one under Employment and one under Family?
    2. Can we send the application to selected service centers where I-130 application processing times are faster?
    3. i-130 or I-485 can i file these in premium processing?
    4. How long would it take for F2A application to be approved? i am currently eligible to file I-485 application as well without any wait.
    5. can i file I-130 and I-485 application at same time?
    Texas Service Center
    Receipt Notice date :- 02/01/12. | FP notice Date :- 02/14/12 | FP date :- 03/13/12 | AP Approved : 03/02/12. Notice in the mail, allegedly. | EAD Approved :- 03/06/12. EAD received. 03/10/12.

  10. #1885
    Please can you share more details about EB5 regional center (half a million) programs, What is the success rate for GC and security of money

  11. #1886
    Guru Spectator's Avatar
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    Immigration and Citizenship Data Updated With Q3 Figures

    USCIS have updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data with Q3 figures.

    In the All Forms data, EB I-485 approvals are shown as 89,608 for YTD. That is bang on target for 140k, assuming 15% additional CP cases and prorated for the full FY.
    Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.

  12. #1887
    Quote Originally Posted by Spectator View Post
    USCIS have updated the Immigration and Citizenship Data with Q3 figures.

    In the All Forms data, EB I-485 approvals are shown as 89,608 for YTD. That is bang on target for 140k, assuming 15% additional CP cases and prorated for the full FY.
    which means no visas are being wasted?

    whats with the July inventory report..isnt out yet!

  13. #1888
    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post

    whats with the July inventory report..isnt out yet!
    They are also waiting for the EB3ROW demand to show up!

  14. #1889
    Quote Originally Posted by EB3Iwaiting View Post
    They are also waiting for the EB3ROW demand to show up!
    so EB3I can wait for 12+ years but its very important to dole out greencards to RoW people who have been waiting for 12+ months I guess...

  15. #1890
    Quote Originally Posted by anuprab View Post
    so EB3I can wait for 12+ years but its very important to dole out greencards to RoW people who have been waiting for 12+ months I guess...
    All in the name of diversity my friend. EB GCs are only 14% of the annual quota and they want diversity in it too. Skills are only needed for pass the first 2 stages. After that, it all depends on where you are born. Even though their FB quota (which is a lot higher than EB quota) is dependent on diversity and they have a separate diversity quota for the very reason of promoting diversity. Yet, they need it in EB quotas too. It does not matter to them that they already live here on non immigrant visas or on EAD/AP. As long they do not count as LPRs or citizens, it does not count.

    That is the law. We can only try to change it.

  16. #1891

    clarification regarding H1-B Transfer to new employer.

    Gurus,

    Sorry to post in wrong group. please move this later.
    I am frustrated with waiting for GC.

    I need some clarification regarding H1-B Transfer to new employer.

    I have approved I-140 from my present employer and applying for 3 years extension but meanwhile I got a good offer from other employer.
    If I want to, can my new employer file for H1b extension and apply for 3 years extension based on my current approved I-140.

    Please advise.

    Regards
    tatikonda

  17. #1892
    YES, as long as your current 140 dont get revoked.

  18. #1893
    Quote Originally Posted by Jagan01 View Post
    Not sure if this topic has been discussed on the forum yet "DATES FOR FILING OF EMPLOYMENT-BASED VISA APPLICATIONS" has been retrogressed for EB2 India to 22-Apr-2009, EB2- China to 01-Mar-2013, EB3 - China to 01-May-2014 and no change to EB3 India-stayed at 01-Jul-2005.

    So are they going to test the waters again? by making all to use the Dates for Filing instead of Dates for Final Action? Gurus plz chime in.

  19. #1894
    YT, Spec & other Gurus here
    My PD is last week of Mar 2005 EB3I.
    When do you think I will be current.
    How do you feel will EB3I move in the next couple of months?

  20. #1895
    Quote Originally Posted by GCwaiting View Post
    YT, Spec & other Gurus here
    My PD is last week of Mar 2005 EB3I.
    When do you think I will be current.
    How do you feel will EB3I move in the next couple of months?
    --------------------------------------------------------

    Till January 2017 , it is a week of movement. After that can't say


    November 2016 Visa Bulletin ---8 Mar 2005
    December 2016 Visa Bulletin-- 15 Mar 2005
    January 2017 Visa Bulletin--- 22 Mar 2005

  21. #1896
    https://www.uscis.gov/visabulletin-oct-16

    USCIS will accept EB2-I I-485 applications till Apr 2009.

    I hope it moves past Apr 2010 soon.

  22. #1897
    FY 2016 has ended.

    Did not see this message anywhere ..... that employment based visas for this year are exhausted.
    Some people are still reporting approvals !!
    485 July inventory also not released !!

    What do gurus here see of this ... what is your interpretation??

  23. #1898
    Guys!

    I just wanted to vent out my frustration and this is one of the place where I can find some like-minded people.

    I was on a good trip to Smoky Mountains this weekend as my kids had a fall recess and we were joined by few other family friends. One of the family recently got greened and they had to go through a lot of hurdles porting from EB3 to EB2 but finally it was a story that ended well.

    I was very happy for this guy and congratulated him and as we spoke the topic went on to the current backlogs and extreme wait times that India is currently facing. I went on to say that there should be a congressional change to the current law, remove the existing per country limits, stop calculating dependents towards the GC count, recapture the lost visas etc and surprisingly this guy took a huge exception on these and he said the per country limits should NOT be removed because all other countries will be back logged if the govt makes this change and so instead all the Indians and Chinese waiting in this back log should be given I-140/EAD and they have to wait for their turn.

    I debated with him and said that resolves only part of the problem and one should really think about the extreme difficulties people waiting for GC will have to go through, especially their kids who age out due to this non-functional system in place. I also argued that the current system was originally set for the Family based immigration and they just passed on the same rules to EB category and no serious thought was given to it. Also we are not trying to jam the system right away but do it in such a way that 15% of the visas will be allocated to the extremely backlogged countries first and then eventually make the system FIFO. At one point this guy said USA laws are very well set and they don’t discriminate at all and this country limit is set to give other countries a fair chance and diversity in immigration. He also went on say ‘ If the per country limits are removed there will be one other country but only India who will be jamming these categories and USA will soon be overcrowded with Indians’. His tone really sounded as if his skin turned ‘non-Indian’ the moment he got his Green-card. At that point I felt like he should have really been denied a GC from eb2 and made to wait in EB3 (I empathize with EB3 folks) to really feel the struggle from a GC wait. He didn’t seem to really understand the pain he went through during his porting when he really vented out his frustration on various occasions.

    I was really at loss for words when this guy started talking against these initiatives and honestly it made me feel that our community is at a serious identity crisis.

    So guys my question is – Are we really taking away the diversity of the EB category by this push to remove country limits? I don’t think so because H1-B is a dual intent visa and DOS/USCIS knows 90% of the visas come from India and even if 30% of them decide to stay back that will clog the EB category. They should seriously do something about it.This is really causing a divide within ourselves. Also the immigration influx we are seeing now from Asia is far less than the mass immigration that occurred during the 1930-1970s from Europe. Folks who have a similar impression as my friend , hope they realize it.

    V

  24. #1899
    Quote Originally Posted by Prabhas View Post
    Guys!

    I just wanted to vent out my frustration and this is one of the place where I can find some like-minded people.

    I was on a good trip to Smoky Mountains this weekend as my kids had a fall recess and we were joined by few other family friends. One of the family recently got greened and they had to go through a lot of hurdles porting from EB3 to EB2 but finally it was a story that ended well.

    I was very happy for this guy and congratulated him and as we spoke the topic went on to the current backlogs and extreme wait times that India is currently facing. I went on to say that there should be a congressional change to the current law, remove the existing per country limits, stop calculating dependents towards the GC count, recapture the lost visas etc and surprisingly this guy took a huge exception on these and he said the per country limits should NOT be removed because all other countries will be back logged if the govt makes this change and so instead all the Indians and Chinese waiting in this back log should be given I-140/EAD and they have to wait for their turn.

    I debated with him and said that resolves only part of the problem and one should really think about the extreme difficulties people waiting for GC will have to go through, especially their kids who age out due to this non-functional system in place. I also argued that the current system was originally set for the Family based immigration and they just passed on the same rules to EB category and no serious thought was given to it. Also we are not trying to jam the system right away but do it in such a way that 15% of the visas will be allocated to the extremely backlogged countries first and then eventually make the system FIFO. At one point this guy said USA laws are very well set and they don’t discriminate at all and this country limit is set to give other countries a fair chance and diversity in immigration. He also went on say ‘ If the per country limits are removed there will be one other country but only India who will be jamming these categories and USA will soon be overcrowded with Indians’. His tone really sounded as if his skin turned ‘non-Indian’ the moment he got his Green-card. At that point I felt like he should have really been denied a GC from eb2 and made to wait in EB3 (I empathize with EB3 folks) to really feel the struggle from a GC wait. He didn’t seem to really understand the pain he went through during his porting when he really vented out his frustration on various occasions.

    I was really at loss for words when this guy started talking against these initiatives and honestly it made me feel that our community is at a serious identity crisis.

    So guys my question is – Are we really taking away the diversity of the EB category by this push to remove country limits? I don’t think so because H1-B is a dual intent visa and DOS/USCIS knows 90% of the visas come from India and even if 30% of them decide to stay back that will clog the EB category. They should seriously do something about it.This is really causing a divide within ourselves. Also the immigration influx we are seeing now from Asia is far less than the mass immigration that occurred during the 1930-1970s from Europe. Folks who have a similar impression as my friend , hope they realize it.

    V
    This is your typical "I am on the other side now I don't care for others" mentality that specifically Indians seem to suffer from. I know plenty of people who stress about the stupidity of the laws in place while they are in line but once they get their greencard, they are all for shutting down every single form of immigration in this country.

    This lack of gratitude and empathy post GC annoys me to no end. Next time when another person gets his GC, just congratulate him and hang up the phone.

  25. #1900

    2017 outlook?

    Spec, Q, anyone who can make sense of this puzzle,
    What does the 2017 outlook look like? After 10 years being on H1-B, I am really frustrated. Will my PD of 30Oct2009 ever see day light?

    I feel like I gave this country too much time... Should have called it a day and headed elsewhere much earlier when I could but now it is like holding stocks in a bear market in which you have invested all your life's savings.

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