Apart from no spillovers from EB1, if you also consider the Eb3--> EB2 porting, there will be very few visa's for the original eb2 filers. No way out of this queue without a reform.Originally Posted by qesehmk
Apart from no spillovers from EB1, if you also consider the Eb3--> EB2 porting, there will be very few visa's for the original eb2 filers. No way out of this queue without a reform.
Recent DOL statistics confirm 26% increase in PERM Filings.. would this affect I140 approval? In turn helping EB2IC/3IC approvals.
https://www.murthy.com/2016/08/17/in...tions-filings/
Spec, YT, Q and other gurus,
This is the latest we got from AILA check-in with CO:
EB-2 and EB-3. Presently, the EB-2 Worldwide final action date lags behind EB-3 Worldwide, but this should not create the same EB-3 downgrade phenomenon we have witnessed in recent years in the China EB categories. According to Charlie, members should expect EB-2 Worldwide to become current again in October. Despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB-3 Worldwide, members should not expect it to become current. Charlie is concerned that there is demand in this category that has not yet materialized.
In October, EB-2 India will likely move to a date in early 2007. Slow movements of a few weeks at a time are anticipated for EB-3 India, which is likely to remain at a 2005 date in October. EB-3 India is the last category in which Charlie still has strong visibility (from the summer 2007 adjustment of status filings) into pre-adjudicated demand. As a result, there has not been any erratic movement in the final action date for this category in recent years.
The positive that I see is that time EB3I is not expected to retrogress, will continue to move forward and he admitted this is the category he has best visibility. It only retrogressed last time because of his mistake. Took almost the whole year to recover.
Pending inventory as well as EB2ROW retrogressed dates show that EB2ROW has more demand than EB3ROW. If there is no vertical spillover expected from EB1, and both categories getting fresh set of quotas in October, how is EB2ROW expected to be current and not EB3ROW? Even Charlie's sentence says "despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB3ROW"...he will not make it current and is concerned that there is demand in this category that has not yet materialized. I noticed that since July 2016 and till mid-August 2016, PERM certifications have slightly dropped off and the overall ROW % has dropped too.
The July inventory should give us a good idea on pending EB2ROW vs. EB3ROW demand. But what is it that I am missing that CO still expects EB3ROW high demand to "materialize"?
Notes on the AILA meeting from ImmigrationGirl.
What to Expect in the Visa Bulletin in the next Fiscal Year starting October 1, 2016
By ImmigrationGirl August 18, 2016
The Chief of the Visa Control and Reporting Division, Charles Oppenheim, at the Department of State recently provided some insight to the American Immigration Lawyers Association regarding potential priority dates for the October visa bulletin as we move into the next Fiscal Year.
EB-2 Worldwide is expected to become current again in October. Despite the uncharacteristically low demand in EB-3 Worldwide is not expected to become current because there is a concern that demand in this category that has not yet materialized.
In October, EB-2 China is expected to advance to a date in late 2011 or early 2012. EB-3 China’s final action date is expected to reach late 2012 or early 2013. This means that we likely see the EB-3 downgrade phenomenon again next fiscal year, at least until the increase in EB-3 China demand generated by the downgrades levels out demand between the two categories.
In October, EB-2 India will likely move to a date in early 2007. Slow movements of a few weeks at a time are anticipated for EB-3 India, which is likely to remain at a 2005 date in October. EB-3 India is the last category in which the Visa Chief has some visibility from the summer 2007 adjustment of status filings. This means that any movement in this category will be more steady and less erratic compared to others.
No predictions are available at this time as to where EB-5 China dates will fall in the next fiscal year. We may have better information by late September to mid-October.
It is expected that EB-1 India and EB-1 China will become current again in October.
Family-Based Projections. We expect movements into the next fiscal year to remain relatively steady. The Administration’s Visa Modernization Proposal compels the State Department to advance the dates as aggressively as possible in the first three quarters of the fiscal year. While doing so helps to ensure that number use is maximized, it also results in fewer numbers being available for use in the final quarter, which can cause retrogression at the end of a fiscal year.
Filing Dates. Most importantly, as we approach the one year anniversary of the new Visa Bulletin format, we do not have any predictions from the visa chief in terms of “filing dates” as he has not yet met with the CIS Ombudsman’s Office.
I’ll post updates whenever I receive them!
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
EB3Iwaiting,
Given EB3-ROW is so close to being Current, I don't think it makes any difference. IMO CO should just make it Current and be done with it. He can make an adjustment later if need be and would be left with a better idea of actual pending demand at that point.
So, why won't he. I'd speculate that the lag time from a PERM certification to I-485 submission and approval is a few months longer than it is for EB2-ROW. EB3-ROW monthly approvals on Trackitt have started to increase significantly in the last few months. EB3 may have just reached the beginning of the effect of increased PERM certifications. If so, I-485 approvals for EB3-ROW will remain at an elevated level for the majority of FY2017.
It remains to be seen whether ROW certifications dip and whether it is sustained - my figures still show them at a significantly higher level than the previous period that would have resulted in I-485 approvals. Even if they dip now, the effect on I-485 approvals won't be seen until well into FY2017. There's also the unresolved question of whether a higher % of PERM for ROW are now (and have been) submitted for EB3 positions, whether the level of CP for EB3-ROW has changed and whether a higher number of EB3-EW are approved for ROW.
Without an irritant, there can be no pearl.
Thanks for the clear explanation Spec. I agree that even if we see a dip in EB3ROW PERM certifications now, EB3I will only see the effect 6-7 months later because of the lag time between PERM approvals and I-485 approvals.
This is interesting. I never thought it that way. Why is that?
From CO's comment for EB3-ROW vs EB3-India he seems to be in his biased mode where he is expecting some EB3-ROW applications to hit his demand in future - a pure speculation. He is determined to keep EB3-India severely backlogged because of his bias. As we get into October, it is time to stop his bias and make EB3-ROW current. For him the "demand" is when EB3-ROW I-485 or equivalent is filed. Speculating PERM certification is none of his business. As nobody can determine the EB3-ROW component in perm certifications, all he is doing is speculating to favor his pet category EB3-ROW.
Eb3-India folks, it is time for us to wake up and do something about this. Country cap itself is discriminatory rule. On top of that we should not allow CO to discriminate against us. If someone is willing to join the effort I am willing to join this though I got my GC 1 year back.
Spec pointed out before that EB3ROW has itself faced discrimination because they have not been allocated their full quota for many years. This would have made them become "C" at least 1.5 years before and in turn would have given EB3Is SO much earlier. He seems to discriminate against EB3s in general. Not as important as EB2 in his mind, may be. Even last year, he gave EB2Is too many visas too early and EB3Is paid the price. If not for CO's mistake, EB3I would have crossed the March 2005 hump this year itself and could have gone into 2006.
Again that is CO's problem. It is one more proof that CO's decision making is wrong. Let EB3-ROW fight for it if they have been discriminated. Also remember EB3-ROW dates are in 2016 not 2005 like India. EB3-India is 11 years backlogged. Regardless there is no justification for him not to make EB3-ROW current. His only intention is to stop EB3-India from getting fall across visas.
Gurus, any thoughts on this, how far the filing dates can move in the next bulletin?
08/24/2016: USCIS "May" Consider Using "Filing Date Chart" in October 2016?
Wow, according to the AILA, at one of the AILA conference in 2016, a USCIS official stated that the USCIS "may" consider using "Filing Date" chart for the purpose of filing of new I-485 applications in October 2016. Caveat: Reportedly this was neither a prediction nor decision of the USCIS. Accordingly, there is no guarantee that, even though the State Department's Visa Bulletin moves ahead for a limited period of time, the USCIS may accept large number of I-485 applications based on the "Filing Date" chart in October, if and only if this information turns into a reality. Dream on, the prospective I-485 filers in October!
Source: http://www.immigration-law.com/
This is from ImmigrationGirl
August 24, 2016
Any update on the Filing Dates for Oct 2016 ?
Reply
ImmigrationGirl
August 24, 2016
Nothing from Department of State, BUT, there was some recent hinting by AILA that suggested USCIS may be considering allowing both employment- and family-based applicants to use the “Filing Date” chart only for the month of October. Nothing official so we’ll have to wait and see what happens.
whats the point when those dates are in 2009 and 2005 for EB2 and EB3 India respectively!!!
Hardly helps EB2I as there would be very few if at all first time filers. Will help the new porters from EB3I if USCIS accepts 2009 EB2I dates.
beyond pathetic....it will make sense only if they move it post those dates, if they move that is..
Usually when will the latest pending 485 inventory be released ?
Think last year it came out around mid-August, 12th August I think. No sign of it yet this year.
Didn't it come out on 1 April this year? WhereIsMyGC and TrackItt have been using data from April 2016.
It comes out 4 times a year for Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct. People are talking about July one.
Thanks
Hey Spec/Q
I am in a peculiar situation and would need your advise on this. I am currently in EB2 - Priority Date Dec'2008. I missed the boat twice and want to take advantage of F2A. My husband has a greencard and would want to file I-130 and 485 under F2A.
1. Can i have 2 pending 485 applications one under Employment and one under Family?
2. Can we send the application to selected service centers where I-130 application processing times are faster?
3. i-130 or I-485 can i file these in premium processing?
4. How long would it take for F2A application to be approved? i am currently eligible to file I-485 application as well without any wait.
5. can i file I-130 and I-485 application at same time?
My answers inline EB2D. Good luck!
I no longer provide calculations/predictions ever since whereismyGC.com was created.
I do run this site only as an administrator. Our goal is to improve clarity of GC process to help people plan their lives better.
Use the info at your risk. None of this is legal advice.
Forum Glossary | Forum Rules and Guidelines | If your published post disappeared, check - Lies and Misinformation thread
thanks a lot Spec.
what are the chances that Dec 2008 would become current in FY2017?
Spec,
One last question: To file for F2A do I need an attorney/lawyer to represent the case
OCT VB published https://travel.state.gov/content/vis...ober-2016.html
Failing to understand that if pending inventory of EB2ROW is higher than EB3ROW, how is EB3ROW not current but EB2ROW is? CO still expecting high EB3ROW to come in? He has been expecting it for the last 1 year.
My friend, I have given up trying to understand and make sense of it. Being a physician, I am not going to qualify for EB1C. I don't have lot of research papers and I am not working in an academic hospital so I don't qualify for EB1A or EB1B. I am either going to keep waiting in EB2 for long period or earn enough money to file under EB5 regional center (half a million) or worst case scenario, move back to India. Current scenario is not going to change until Immigration Reform happens, comprehensive or piecemeal and there is something in it hopefully for backlogged people when it happens.
On the other hand, I think if our backlogged community wants something done faster, the only way I see it happening is through the way of lobbying. Unfortunately, ** has totally ruined the experience of many like us who could have been potential long term donors for the group. If I am donating to a group, the least I expect is that the group is handling my inquiries appropriately and transparently.
I recently met my wife's cousin. He was laid off during 2008 recession but had a GC at that time. Instead of starting another job, he started a motel business with his friends. He is reasonably successful at this time and doing well in his business. He told me that AHOA (American Hotel Owners Association) which he is a member of, recently started asking its members to pay $500 per year. It has 15,000 registered members (95% Gujaratis and out of those 95%, 99% are Patels) and more are joining in. That gives them $7.5 million. With all that money, they have now hired a lobbying firm on capitol hill to lobby and get those things done what they want. His personal experience was that if you can write a check, then you can get the access and get things done. He got access to Councilman's and Mayor's cellphone by writing a $5000 check and arranging a fundraiser at his motel where he raised $20,000. He asked me, why don't we all backlogged Indians and Chinese and other backlogged communities do something similar?
Although, I found nothing new in what he was telling me, I kind of thought about ** at that time and how bad people's experience has been with them. I strongly feel that if some dedicated souls take the initiative to spend time on capitol hill (not **) and come up with a new organization starting something similar, I am sure many backlogged people will make financial contributions as long as the organization remains loyal to its base and remains transparent, and people know what organization is doing with their money. Problem with ** is a problem of trustworthiness. If they would do things differently, many people would contribute.
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